xG TABLE FLAMED + RACE FOR TOP 3 GETS SPICY

by .

GOOD MORNING TO YOU ALL!

It’s a huge day for our shared agenda.

Spurs go to Anfield.

Liverpool needs to keep their title fight alive.

Spurs need to take at least a point to keep Thursday spicy and open.

The Premier League this season does not give a fuck about what you think will happen, it works to its own beat, so don’t write of Antonio Conte. He’s a lucky manager, Spurs have been lucky all season, they could easily walk away with 3 points from 1 shot all game, such is the qualidee of Son and Harry Kane.

Then tomorrow, we have to fight for our lives and bring home the 3 points, no question.

The biggest threat Leeds pose is twofold:

  1. They will fly at us regardless of the personnel
  2. They have so few players to choose from it’ll be hard to predict their line-up or tactics

There are also annoying narratives that favor them: they haven’t beaten a top 6 side all season. That’s usually a sign to the footballing gods to work something our way.

Am I thinking about Mark Viduka? Am I thinking about Harry Kewel scoring and running to the corner flag? Am I thinking about David O’leary ruining the Arsenal party of yesteryear? Maybe.

My Uncle, total geezer, major Leeds away day fans, reckons they’ll get slapped. He has zero faith that his team can do anything and he’s not playing games. Says they don’t have the quality to do what they did to us in the past.

Leeds lack top playerrs, they have very little experience, and their defence lives for giving up spaces. They are a club that is pretty incapable of delivering a deep-block for 90minutes. My uncle is adamant that Leeds are going to go down this season.

Mikel Arteta needs to have the team super focused. I’m quite confident we’ll create lots of openings because we tend to do that in most games. In front of our home fans, in the sunshine, with an electric atmosphere, it’ll be very hard for Leeds.

I’d love Eddie to head into his log cabin, chop up some wood, and put a mile-high stack of chips on his shoulder. Leeds treated him badly. He was moved there, he should have gone to Dusseldorf, his career suffered when he sat on the bench. A hat trick would be NICE.

I’m not sure how Arteta will line-up, I’d love to see ESR back in the starting 11, his form has been a bit up and down, he’s clearly not fully fit, but now would be a great time to make a case for the Thursday game.

NO INJURIES is mainly where I am on secondary hopes and dreams.

What is even more tantalizing is that Chelsea dropped 2 points from a winning position against Wolves. They were dreadful again, Thomas Tuchel is overseeing a car crash by Chelsea standards, so a win at Leeds could very much open up the idea of a 3rd place finish.

Also, United losing, AGAIN. Remember how many people thought Ralf Rangnick was the silver bullet they needed and that it was curtains for our challenge?

Tomorrow is a big, big chance to attack a higher position.

It’s a HUGE chance to change how we approach Thursday. If we beat Leeds, Spurs HAS to come and play against us because a point won’t be enough.

This is exactly what we wanted at the start of the season. For our games to matter heading into the final throes of the season.

Before we go, I do want to quickly reference some cheques I’ve been cashing. Remember when we went on an exceptional run of wins after we lost the opening three? And people started throwing around the xG table as a reason to be terrified? I do.

I penned an article about the weaponisation of xG. People went at me about it. DATA IS OUR GOD NOW, PEDRO. But, turns out, my new turn as a data non-believer has led me down a righteous path.

Now I’m cashing cheques, people are all like, ‘oh no, we were just having a rational conversation about xG’… no, we weren’t.

Here’s what was missing from being concerned that we were 5th, but playing like 16th.

There was no context in the xG for the covid outbreak

No context for a newly assembled young team dealing with the top 3 teams so early

No context for game state: xG stated that we lost against Spurs and LCFC. If you watched those games, you’ll have remembered we battered them early, then sat back

There was also a lack of understanding about how young teams perform in general, and teams under Arteta had developed (season prior, post December, we went on a tear).

  • Arteta has a very specific playing style
  • His ideas are complex
  • He relies on automatism that come with time
  • Top young players get better

People couldn’t get that info from xG, but it was clear to anyone paying attention post-December was going to be a lot better, which is why the xG pearl-clutching was bollocks pushed by people who wanted to throw shade at the progress.

xG is a guide, not a god.

Points on the table are more valuable than theory points on an xG table.

Most people cannot be trusted with free data.

Arsenal wouldn’t have spent time fretting over that xG table because they knew what was going on.

We move.

See you in the comments, pray to the gods of gegenpressing, and hope lady luck isn’t in cahoots with Unai Conte this evening.

x

 

 

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raptora

“Kane and Son pathetic 30 year olds pushing like this to get 4th spot. Worse than Wengers 4th is a trophy teams.”

lol

China1

Man pleeeeease win today. These 3 points would be massive heading into the Spurs game

Re Spurs and liverpool. I’d rather liverpool won the title than city so that was a shame.

Re Man U, it’s what I’ve been saying a while now which is Rangnick is a banter manager at this level. Such a shame they’re replacing him in the summer but thankfully he’s moving upstairs on a part time basis alongside his Austria job so I’m hopeful he’ll continue to damage the club from there

China1

Oh and re Chelsea, let’s all laugh at Chelsea the chav cunts

We have to find 3 points today. Do that and find 3 points against Spurs and not only is CL football ours but we will go into the final two games with a genuine chance of third. That would be one hell of an end of season turnaround we can all agree

Come on arsenal

China1

Aaaah I’m nervous. It’s been a long time since an arsenal game gave me butterflies. Win lose or draw the Spurs game will be just as nerve wracking

But I hope everyone in the stadium will be more relaxed than I am. That nervous energy from the crowd is very bad for the team. Need everyone at the games to be on top form, loud and confident. If 60k of me we’re at the game it would be all gasps and groans every time we lose the ball lol. Not good

Nigel Tufnel

Raptora I admit it takes a special kind of Spur hate for my comment… take it from my biased point of view. Kane a dirty player with that “special” voice. Son a brilliant little player, but a cry baby. Should be sent to bed without supper for his acting Lol. I enjoyed the knock in the face he took today though. But you did leave out the part that we’re the youngest team in the league battling for 4th. No shame in that from our point of view. I really mean it when I say Spurs in this position with… Read more »

The Real Vieira Lynn

“Pedro re the xG weaponisation. You’re calling for xG to only be used with context but for the Brighton match which we all saw and everyone agreed was a horrible performance you ran with the xG was in our favour so it was only bad luck, nothing to see here line lol.” Spot on China1…kudos to you for not allowing this cherry-picked, cake and eat it too approach to in-game analysis to go unchecked…let’s face it, from an “eye test” perspective this season has had considerably more subpar performances than those in which we passed with flying colours, even though… Read more »

Tony

Did the new Arteta contract come with KPIs or is it just go out there and do your best Mikel, which is keep us in the CL money as it was form Wenger? Probably, it’s if you get a title, that’s a bonus. 4th is Arteta’s to lose but hopefully he will get us over the line. In the next 3.5 years I’d want 1 PL title and a CL final at least from the golden boy of football. Is that too much to ask from the one who has succeeded the Special One and the management golden oldies in… Read more »

Habesha Gooner

Very excited for today. Surely we can’t blow this. We just need to be calm and play our game. Leeds aren’t naturals at parking the bus. We can break them down if we are patient and we don’t force it. I hope Arteta doesn’t galaxy brain the shit out of it. We need to keep the same 11. I would rest white too if it means he is fresh for the NLD.

China1

Habesha bro I admire your confidence. I’m positively cacking myself that somehow, someway we will leave this match without 3 points.

But that’s a good omen tbh because whatever I expect, the opposite tends to happen. We should win today but I expect we won’t. So bet all in on a win 😀

Leftside

I haven’t paid particular attention to Leeds under Jesse, but they have never been defensively solid. Their kamikaze style of football should play into our hands and we should be able to punish them. I’m going to the game as usual and I’m fairly confident.

The Spurs game is giving me anxiety already, too much rides on it and we have not had a good recent record at their ground. However, we need to win today before we can even think about that game.

Habesha Gooner

China
😂😂😂. I predicted Liverpool would smash spurs so what do I know. Deep down I am nervous. Not because leeds are good but the pressure might get to us. But I am also very excited as well. I miss the times where we had to play for something.

I am expecting us to win though. We just need to be patient. Marsch has gotten them better at defending but they aren’t naturals at it. So we can get at them.

Muppetman

Simple to play against Spurs just sit back and it nullifies their biggest threat on the counter. Plus if (we must!!) we win today pressure is on spurs to win as draw will be fine for us

Markymark

A good performance from Spurs but a draw is only going to offer up 1 more point than a loss. We simply have to look for maximum points whoever we play. Situation was really the same if Liverpool had thumped Spurs yesterday

Steveyg87

Hows that chap Romero from Spurs? My word that man was all over last night. Hes exactly what we need

Steveyg87

Saw Klopps comments on Spurs tactics, sour grapes IMO, Arsenal would do well to study Spurs game plan last night. We might actually get a point against Pool for a change

Spanishdave

Southampton have won only one match in their last nine games and that was against us..
That three match loss sequence was bad. Arteta does panic when there’s a lot riding on a game and the team seems to freeze up.
I hope he sorts that out in his next three years.
Maybe?

EdTheRed

Conte a lucky manager? Arteta has a style of play? When will this Trumpisation of LeGrove stop?

EdTheRed

Btw, a damning take on Guardiola”s flaws in an excellent article by Jonathan Wilson on Guardian website. Overthinking seems to be a major issue. Same as with Super Mick.

Pierre

Today’s game is more important than the tottenham game , 4 points clear if we win today puts the pressure on tottenham, a draw or defeat today and the pressure is on Arsenal on Thursday. We should look at it as tottenham dropping 2 points yesterday rather than gaining a point. Drawing with leeds will be a worse result than losing to tottenham in my eyes. I don’t rate Newcastle, a proper football team should beat them and that includes Arsenal . Everton may prove more difficult if they need to get something from the game , I think they… Read more »

Ray+in+LA

MarkyMark

agreed, a point at Liverpool doesn’t change the situation too much– a little less leeway, but our immediate goals are still the same…3 points today and at least a point in the NLD

Pedro

was going to point out an error in the table you showed then checked and United really do have only one more game — so our worse place finish is now fifth 🙂

Graham62

Pierre

I agree, a must win today.
4 points clear going into the Spuds game would really heap the pressure on them.

EdTheREd

Maths are simple, win next two games and it’s job done. Surely, after all this adoration Super Mick is getting, it’s a reasonable thing to expect. After all, he’s been promising great things for three seasons now.

Graham62

Ed The Red

I also agree.

Pep over complicates in the big games.

Imo, he has cost MC big time over recent seasons.

Still a great manager though.

EdTheREd

Graham62

Not for me, Any manager whose response to failure is “I need more players/another £300m” is not great manager, but a very lucky loser.

Pierre

At least at long last we have our best central defender and best striker in the starting 11. Holding and Eddie have been criminally underused this season, so to see them involved in our recent run of good form against strong opposition gives me confidence that we can get the result we need today. What i would say to the doubters of Eddie and Holding is hold back on the criticism if Eddie misses a chance or Holding misplaces a pass, they will come good when it matters most , like in Eddie’s case with the team averaging 3 goals… Read more »

China1

So we have two good young 10s but we should buy a good old 10 who has just come back from a heart issue instead?

Don’t see how that’s a good idea

China1

Pierre don’t tell me you didn’t wince whilst typing out that Ozil was rightly criticized for his poor final years.

Habesha Gooner

Pierre I thought willock was playing for Newcaste. How can you not rate them? And also please stop typing that shit opinion of yours that thinks we should sign Eriksen. Odegaard passes the eye test. And just because you are married to your stupid agenda that we should have played Ozil till now, doesn’t mean he isn’t a great player. And your hypocrisy is unreal. You were banging on about the chances created stat when Ozil was here and he did nothing besides that, but now it means nothing? Odegaard is 1st in pressures, tackles, passes and every all rounder… Read more »

Topside Northbank

Big game today (they all are now) a win as others said. But more important # think about Thursday from tomorrow. Klopp great manager but a sore one when the result doesn’t go his way anyone could tell you how Tottenham would set up and play. TAA was poor slinging poor crosses into no one Salah or more likely Mane should of got hooked for Origi when it went 1-0 Tottenham. Lot of transfer rumours about Pogba to City any views on that? For us Tielemans getting a lot of links not had a great season for me and really… Read more »

DivineSherlock

I think the problem with Liverpool is that they’ve signed Diaz and Jota but none of them can play a role that Firmino plays , they can replace Mane and Salah to some extent but not Firmino . Which is why they flounder in games when there’s a deep block . Firmino is outstanding in tight spaces.

Northbanker

Win our next 2 games and the job is done – COYG

Northbanker

Our u18s just beat Spurs away in last game 5-0. Let’s do it all levels

Samesong

Spurs celebrating the we drew at anfield trophy.

Jonko

Just read that Todd Boehly is 46 years old. If that’s how a 46 year old man is supposed to look like then I’ve certainly been drinking from the fountain of youth.

Madhu

Don’t forget today Arsneal Ladies has a chance to win the WSL title. Arsenal are 1 point behind Chelsea. Hope Manu ladies do us a favour and we win our game at the West ham. Big day for bithe Men and Ladies

G

Pierre you seriously think that’s all Ode does ?
Unbelievable
The man sees a pass line ke no other Arsenal player can

Un

Big day
Win this and draw on Thursday and we are almost there
One more win after that and it’s done
7 more points

Un

Divine
Liverpool will be looking at a target man this summer I reckon. I do t think jota and Diaz were signed to play false 9

Northbanker

Pierre has no time for the 90% of us who cannot see what he does with his distorted vision

Un

Sorry Pierre
I tend to agree with most of your views but not on Odegaard
I’d crawl over 100 Ozils for one Martin Ø

Northbanker

We should start signing 30years old with serious heart conditions. It will be a great rebuild

Un

Pierre

Odegaard lacks on the assists as he tends to feed the wide players who then cut back into the box. Saka, ESR and full backs. The pre assist.

With a striker who runs behind off the shoulder I think he will register more assists
For his first full season in England I think he has bee a revelation and has brought Saka up a level or two.
To think he’s only 23, he was a snip at £35m

Nelson

Pierre

This time you have really lost it. KSE has already ordered the board to go youth. No way they’ll sign a 30 year old with a history of health problem. I admit that Eriksen is still playing well recently. But that is totally against the policy of the club.

Gonsterous

Safe to say that utd are out of the race for top 4. Unless spurs bottle it, they will end up in 6th.

I’m not too worried about spurs. If we win today we will ha a 4 point gap between us. I’m eyeing chelsea because they are the ones shitting the bed and wouldn’t it be nice to finish 3rd?

Un

Dennis bergkamp didn’t tend to register 20 assists per season but his passes and flicks still unlocked defences
Of course you can’t argue with high numbers but the most crucial pass rarely tends to be the final one, rather than one who puts the assist maker behind into the danger zone

Batistuta

Today feels like one of those where we decide to play brain dead football and gift a struggling team 3 points.

Hope everyone’s up to the task today

Jonko

I’m usually a pessimist when it comes to pressure games (cant hurt if you didn’t expect) but today i feel surprisingly relaxed and confident that we’ll thrash Leeds

Nelson

Tavares vs Raphinha would be a big challenge. Arteta must have ordered Martinelli to help out Tavares.

TallestTiz

Manure Ladies doing Arsenal Ladies a favour so far

Our ladies need to smash goals past west ham and pile more pressure on the Chelsea ladies to capitulate

Ray+in+LA

Hope the home crowd aren’t as edgy as we seem to be 🙂

Un

Jonko

Leeds are fighting for survival
I wouldn’t write them off

Nelson

As things stand Arsenal would be the WSL champions with Manchester United leading Chelsea 2-1 and the Gunners holding West Ham United 0-0.

May today be a good good day…..

TR7

I have always rated Holding and Elneny, so really pleased to see both of them doing well and proving their worth. In the last two years or so injuries have turned out to be blessing in disguise for us. I don’t think Eddie, Elneny and Holding would have got a chance if all the players were available. Eddie does everything Laca does and some. Elneny has a great positional awareness even though he has limited skills. In fact he is perhaps the most tactically astute player in our squad. Holding is obviously much better than average White and reckless Gabriel.… Read more »

Nelson

Team to face Leeds: Ramsdale, Tomiyasu, Holding, Gabriel, Soares, Elneny, Xhaka, Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli, Nketiah.

Subs: Leno, Lacazette, Smith Rowe, Pepe, Tavares, Lokonga, Oulad M’hand, Swanson, Patino.

China1

Come on Arsenal. Women and men. Let’s do thiiiiiis

Bob N16

Soares instead of Tavares, good decision!

Left Testicle

We have to be at it from the start. Not one of those lackadaisical, slow starts.

China1

white is injured?

Nelson

Arteta still doesn’t trust Tavares. White is not even on the Sub bench. Pepe has taken Nelson’s spot on the bench. Once you sit there you’ll be stuck there.

TR7

Still perplexed and baffled how a boring and predictable grafter like Odegaard starts ahead of immensely talented and effective ESR.

Dissenter

The stakes are too high to play Tavares till the end of the season.

Rich

Bob

I’m with you, Tavares did better in the second half last week, but he petrifies me defensively + positionally

Wonder if it’ll be Cedric or Tomiyasu at left back?

Nelson

Fucking Manu. Couldn’t do anything right, both men and women…

Jonko

The goals will have to come from the middle…Cedric won’t be able to put in decent crosses from a weaker foot and Tomi doesn’t overlap that much…Gabi and Saka have to take on defenders whenever the opportunity presents

Bob N16

Cedric left I’d guess Rich. Has played there for us before with mixed results it must be said!

Jonko

BIG game of Odegaard this

TallestTiz

Nelson

Manu are so sh*t as a club

All round

China1

Man U women as useless as man u men. what a bummer.

Danny

TR7
May 8, 2022 13:06:54

Still perplexed and baffled how a boring and predictable grafter like Odegaard starts ahead of immensely talented and effective ESR.
————
Couldn’t agree more, everytime I mention this here I get a right bollocking.
ESR is our best player, our Hale End Messi, but Arteta bought Ødegaard and now ESR can’t get a game. Ødegaard with 4 assists out of 32 games this season and with 2 penalties conceded in 2 losing matches, not good enough but hopefully will improve.

SUGA3

‘Still perplexed and baffled how a boring and predictable grafter like Odegaard starts ahead of immensely talented and effective ESR.’

‘boring and predictable grafter’ – coud swear we had a player in similar mould between 2011 and 2016, who also wore the shirt no. 8 😆

raulishuss

tr7 back to bore us all out with his average take. tr7 after all your nonsensical take, you’re back again trying to condemn our players. gtfoh troll

raulishuss

the boring grafter has created more chances this season than esr has in two seasons

Jonko

Lol I’m the staunchest of Arsenal critics but anyone shitting on Ode is beyond stupid. Him and Saka are the reason I decided to start watching the games again.

Rich

Football’s a game of opinions.

Ozil was a joy to watch on his day, but I always felt that he was a luxury we could rarely afford to carry.

I love Odegaard, but he seems to divide opinion similarly to Ozil

raulishuss

jonko tr7 is just bitter he put all his egg on arteta and his signings to fail but now he has eggs on his face like the clown he is..

Bob N16

Am not convinced that ESR is fully fit, regardless of that it’s been Martinelli or him on the left. Odegaard deserves his place in the side.

Batistuta

A poster doesn’t rate a player and he’s termed “bitter”. Jeez

Bob N16

If you watch Odegaard live I think you’re likely to appreciate him more – his workrate and his organisational skills are also important contributions.

Anyway I’m off to the stadium now…. GOYR!

Danny

anyone shitting on Ode is beyond stupid.
———–
There we go, wondered how long it would take. 4 assiss in 32, sad.

Rich

Bob

Smith Rowe has been carrying an injury since Xmas, he’s been in and out of training

TR7

Ode is a good carrier of the ball in the sense he rarely loses the ball and keeps ticking things over. But he is not a dangerous player. His moves if you closely observe are rather predictable. ESR on the other hand is a live wire. Evey time he is in and around the box you never know what will happen. He has played fewer minutes than Ode but has already scored more than 10 goals. Not trying to sound like I am overly critical of Ode but ESR can not be wasted for anyone. He is super duper special.

Rich

Odegaard has created more chances from open play, than any other player in the PL since November

Kearon Callender

Chris Kavanagh the ref today, he was in the var pit drawing an imaginary offside line to disallow Martinelli’s equaliser vs Brighton.

There was no way a human could prove who was playing him offside with the angles the camera had.

Chris

I’m supremely confident.

3-0 to us

Northbanker

This Ode v ESR debate misses the real point These are 2 great players who do different jobs and both need to be accommodated

Arteta was trying to do that but Emile has been injured and still not completely recovered true match fitness

Chris

I’ve mentioned before that I’m sad to see ESR not start much recently, and that I wish there was a way to get Saka, ESR and Odegaard in the team together, that means dropping Martinelli, not keen on leaving him out either!

Good to have options and of which we will clearly add to in the summer also. ESR’s time will come again I am certain. More games next season will make full use of a squad we will no doubt add to in the summer.

Karsa

ESR will start regualarly when he’s fully fit.

Northbanker

To accommodate all 4 means playing GM in the middle.It’s a job I believe he can do but right now it can’t be risked

TheLegendaryDB10

For me this game is another case of: we stay focused and work hard and we can win this game.

The line up remains unchanged with Eddie up top, Mo in midfield and Tomi at LB with Holding at CB which looks good to me.

Come on Arsenal!! We can win the game!!

Jonko

There’s some magic in seeing a left footed player who can pull the strings and create chances….Ozil did that too but lacked the aggression and passion which Ode has..as much as I love ESR i don’t find his presence as emphatic as Odes

Un

Tr7

They have different skill sets
ESR is more of a penetrative final third player than Odegaard who is less direct
I value both of them. I’d rather see ESR starting than martinelli who is great on his day but offers less variety than ESR
ESR can do what Odegaard does and what martinelli does
He can tailor his game and adapt to the opposition

TheLegendaryDB10

TR7

I agree with you.

It is why I like ESR. He is the one player that can really create something from nothing.

It’s a great ingredient to have to have someone who can add a layer of unpredictability to the team.

Let’s hope that he gets over his injury niggles and becomes a permanent fixture in the team. He deserves it.

Jonko

Tomi LB

Nelson

Cedric at RB.

TheLegendaryDB10

Come on The Arsenal!!!

Dissenter

Leeds are so frantic

Nelson

Tomi will have his hands full.

Un

Edddddddddie

Brilliant

Nelson

Yeah!!!

LoveSausage

Was that the most Eddie goal ever??😂