Sh*te data and straw men

by .

I am BACK in New York after spending some time in the very beautiful Savannah. I highly recommend if you are ever in Georgia, what a place.

Back home, I was again pondering the weirdness of the criticism that continues to rumble around the new regime. It doesn’t come from serious people, but it is always shocking to me how fucking atrocious internetters are when they’re let loose with bad data.

Comparing Unai Emery to Mikel Arteta is, firstly, a very dumb proposition barely 11 games into his tenure. It’s so dumb, Liverpool fans actually did it when Jurgen Klopp took over from Brendy and started a #KloppOut campaign off the back of it.

This tells you two things.

1. Don’t replicate Liverpool fan behaviour
2. Don’t play the data game unless you are really fucking sure you have a robust argument.

Here is the math for the Spurs fans that were up in your Whatsapp groups with the ‘analysis’ of Arteta courtesy of Champagne Charlie in the comments.

You’re comparing Emery’s point average in a 13 game sample to Arteta’s 8 games. Won’t bother rehashing the old ‘sample argument’ that was brought front and centre with the embarrassing xGA stats previous, will just illustrate with the following:

11 points in 8 games = 1.38
We win our next game = 1.56
We win the game after that = 1.7

The state of trying to pull trends in data with fluctuations like this 😂😂

Also, just like to remind you that Emery was operating with 12 months in the job and 150 mil of talent to supplement HIS football ideology. Mikel Arteta by contrast is picking up pieces mid season.

Another swing, another glaring miss.

Data points you ‘should‘ probably like.

We’ve kept 3 clean sheets on the bounce, 5 in 11 (with two games that we went down to 10 men) with a hodgepodge of teenagers, players we thought were dusted, and plenty of non-defenders mucking in. We can celebrate that. So when certain types say ‘I don’t see an improvement’ ask them if they ever felt like they were watching a team that was tough to break down under Emery, or if they ever felt like they were witnessing something even close to competency when it came to Arsenal defending.

You might also ask who the only team in Europe is to be undefeated in 2020? It’d be Arsenal. Again, not a totally electric statistic because we’ve drawn a lot of games, but when you add in further context, like, say, ‘Emery oversaw our worst start in 30 years and Arteta started in late December’, it starts to feel saucier. Low Scoble rating for sure, but we’re definitely spicier than a Heinz Ketchup at the moment.

Sure, there are lots of things we’d all like to see improve. We’re still making mistakes in dangerous places, our attack is hardly Liverpool fluid, but if you are out here complaining we’re not champions elect form at the moment, you’re a fucking idiot. I’m really sorry to be so blunt, but I absolutely mean it. That Liverpool thing didn’t happen overnight, I can assure you.

Additional areas of improvement to point towards.

You might not like Mustafi, Xhaka, Ozil or Luiz… but you cannot argue their performances have dramatically improved. Shkodran Baresi looked like he’d rather snort a Wuhan sneeze than play a few weeks ago, now he’s operating at a very, very good level of football. Granit Xhaka keeps getting better, I’ve been a vocal anti-advocate of him, I called him a mistake terrorist, but he’s doing well. David Luiz looks reborn, a frizzy-haired warrior. Mesut Ozil is slowly but surely feeling his way back into elite-level football. It’s not a longterm solution, but however you chop it up, players that were once deemed bin-worthy are now delivering hardworking performances. Even players we liked but thought were ill-suited are upping their levels… remember when we assumed Torreira was too small to hack it in the league? That Dani Ceballos was a write-off because his hair was too neat for the UK? It’s great that these players are showing their true colours now they are motivated and fired up about the vision.

‘The Uncoachables’ was such a ridiculous excuse, cooked up by the Emeryista, who still weirdly fetishise a manager about as sexy as a septic cock ring. No elite-level player is uncoachable. Sam Allardyce has made a living training bags of rotten potatoes to keep clean sheets. Hardly a shock that Arteta can make World Cup winners look a little better.

Finally, the kids. You can’t knock ’em. They are stepping up to the plate, learning hard lessons, and rarely hiding. To repeat, Ceballos looks like he might have a future, Guendouzi is a mess but he’s learning from someone that won’t tolerate his drama, Saka looks absolutely elite, Gabriel is inconsistent but taking praise from nobodies like Ronaldinho, and the others are showing they have teeth. Not perfect, but at least they are getting game time and a proper chance under a proper coach.

Moaning we’re not he complete package is such a base strawman argument. No one ever thought we’d be where we needed to be in 2 months. However, we’re starting to get better results, we’re hard to beat, and we’re slowly but surely finding our way in attack. We’re doing all of this without a proper preseason. We were in a process under Emery that wasn’t ever leading to a better Arsenal. That has all changed. Under Arteta it’ll be bumpy, but we’re heading in a direction that’ll take us places. We will need a good summer, lots of hard work, and a good start in August, but I don’t think we’ll be making excuses in May 2021. Unless we fail, then I’ll be blaming hair pills and dry grass for our problems.

Anyway, let’s keep it positive.

We have a chance to show our mettle at home against an Everton side that will give us a very good game at the weekend. Carlo has his players focused, better structured, with bit more bite to their game. He’ll be desperate for the win this weekend, but so will Arsenal. Our club needs momentum, win that game and the next 8 look far more attractive, drop points and it’ll feel like a miserable step back.

I’m still looking for more fluidity in attack. I don’t think we’ve cracked it by a margin, but at this point, I think it’s more about repetition and muscle memory than anything else (with this squad). We need a few sexy goals and a real ‘wow, this is the future’ performance to start the ball rolling there. A simple improvement would be finding the target a little more often. I think the type of chance we’re creating is improving, but some of the shooting has been less than ideal… and from players you expect more from. Imagine me as the coach?

‘Erm, guys, could you try and shoot the ball at the actual goal. Thank you.’

Right, big game tomorrow, fingers crossed we smash them and the Gypsy King deals with the Bronze Bomber. x

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Guns of SF

Fuck it, lets see Gaby in this game at some point…
Lets bring the firepower now

Samesong

Leno bottled stop.making weak excuses about high foot ffs.

Redtruth

Mustafi is a fuckwit player….

R.S.P.C.Arsenal

As much sugar as u want sprinkled on it
Defence is still shit .
Will only get better with redundancies

Guns of SF

Unnai
Only Saka is creating anything for us in the final third.
Torr gives more protection, we cannot conceded again.
Dani cannot do worse than Ozil pushed up a little more…

Other than that, move Auba to middle, sub eddie, and bring Gaby on the right.

That Dreamcast Kid

you can pinpoint where the defense went wrong for that second goal

after clearance Luiz kept most of them onside then trying to help Mustafi who was losing the aerial battle

seconds before that others are already moving up not tracking anyone anymore

this is organisation problem more than anything

Wasi

Gabi not on the bench today.

Graham62

B10

Er, it’s far simpler than that.

Replace them with Torreira and Willock.

As for Leno, absolutely no balls.

Wasi

Dont worry. Game is Ours today.

Redtruth

Ceballos has been caught on the ball.far too many times….
Pepe should play on the left he’s shit on the right side …

Champagne Charlie

Ceballos has the keys to this game but he’s been poor mostly, exactly the sort of player we need for CM but I wouldn’t be making it permanent because he’s not up to it physically.

Wasi

Also no willock.

Unnai

Sorry to let you down. Got exams starting tomorrow. So Wont have much spare time. Short summary surely.

Goonah

Atleast you feel alive watching the Arsenal today. 🙂

Wasi

CC

Ceballos needs to take unlimited amount of touches before he passes the ball. And even more time if he wants to play an incisive pass / through ball.
Unlinke Newcastle Everton Midfielders are not allowing that. Needs to be sharper and release the ball faster.

Bamford10

Arsenal have conceded 10 goals from set pieces, 4th most in the PL, according to @ftballDNA. That’s a problem.

Dissenter

Jens Lehman comes for that ball and takes that boot to the chest
Stays on the turf writing in pain till the referee gives Richarlison the second yellow card.

Wasi

B10

Big one at that.

Redtruth

They had the best record defending set pieces under Emery…

Redtruth

Why is the manager still picking error prone players lol

RodneyKing

i really don’t care if we end up winning this 3-2, 4-3… as long as we win.

Champagne Charlie

Wasi

Just think he’s too slow for a technical outlet in the middle, if he loses it he’s got no recovery, but he’s also got no acceleration to beat a defender which puts him under immense pressure to get it right.

Peak Santi was nippy over 3-5 yards and it makes the world of a difference.

Fuck yes Auba!

Goonah

Yes Yes Yes!!!

COYG!!

Guns of SF

well shit

vickingz

Goallllllll, just what Everton did in the first half

Bamford10

Good way to start the second half.

RodneyKing

What a start to the second half!

TR7

Get in

Habesha Gooner

Wonderful start to the 2nd half.

MidwestGun

Yes!!!!! Nice… great buildup.. Awesome finish.

Nelson

We are a better team. We need to stop their free kicks. That Mina is tall.

Dissenter

Arteta must have read them a lullaby at halftime.

Leedsgunner

Jens Lehman comes for that ball and takes that boot to the chest
Stays on the turf writing in pain till the referee gives Richarlison the second yellow card…

This.

Jens was crazy as a box of bats but he was happy to throw his body on the line when he wore the shirt.

TheLegendaryDB10

Great start to the 2nd half!!!

Jamie

Amazing. Arteta told Auba to score just before kick-off. We all saw it. Sauce.

Olumide

Have y’all noticed that Auba is scoring headers this season compared to previous seasons?

Leedsgunner

Dear Arsenal,

Please do not concede another stupid goal.

Bamford10

While I’m still not convinced by Pepe, he has these defenders afraid of him and playing way off him. This allows him to serve whatever ball he chooses. If people continue to defend him this way, he can be very useful to us.

Leftside

More of this please

vickingz

Goallllllll, just what Everton did in the first half.

azed

Saka — Auba — Pepe would be a deadly front 3.

vickingz

@ olumide, yeah

Batistuta

Like it when Pepe whips in those crosses

That Dreamcast Kid

now a red for Richarlison to cap it all off please

Nelson

That is Arteta ball. Ball control.

That Dreamcast Kid

oooh they gonna get that another goal from that set piece cancel that cancel that!!

cunt of a ref

Valentin

The referee Stuart Atwell has not improved since his ghost goal at Watford.

Bamford10

Nelson

Yep. Wear them down with possession; they can’t hurt you if they don’t have the ball; you expend twice as much energy when you don’t have the ball, etc., etc.

Guns of SF

Dani nice stop!!!!

azed

Eddie and Aubameyang are making the same runs.

Ahmeducrazy

Un

“What were you saying red? A goal and two assists last week
Another assist today”

iT’s eVErtOn mAtE, nOtHInG SPeciaL.

MidwestGun

Yep, Controlling possession … Sid. Won’t charge you for that one. 😀

Leftside

Brilliant from Ceballos there

Leedsgunner

Ceballos putting in a gritty gritty performance today.

Guns of SF

I think my feed is faster than you folks in the UK lol
maybe a few seconds

Left Testicle

Ozil still MIA.

Danny

We need a 4th, 3-2 isn’t enough.

Dissenter

Ceballos needs to stop the play acting. it’s embarrassing tbh.

Guns of SF

Dani C bringing it now

azed

“Ceballos putting in a gritty gritty performance today.”

He probably read the comment that said he wasn’t physical enough.

Leftside

Guns of SF
Lol im not sure I just commented on that late!!

Paulinho

Iwobi with another Iwobi performance.

MidwestGun

Anytime Mustafi gets isolated and has to run.. it’s scary. He might actually be slower then Mertesacker was.

Guns of SF

Danger men on for Everton

WHen will we sub Ozil off

Danny

Iwobi off, that’s a shame.

That Dreamcast Kid

yup yeah Ceballos someone who can finally dictate the tempo for us

there’s a reason we need to keep Leno fit compared to our marauding CBs like Sokratis and Luiz

but yeah he needs to come out for the ball in confidence more

Zfree

Morgan Schneiderlin didn’t really boss our midfield today, did he vikingz and others

Jamie

£28m for Iwobi. Nice one, Raul!

Goonies

Ozil still has that touch of class

Zfree

Need to score the next goal. Secure the bag

That Dreamcast Kid

hahahah fucking blind refereeing blind linesman fuck go to specsavers you cuntsssssssss

That Dreamcast Kid

heh nice bodycheck do that to Richarlison next until he injure himself

Ahmeducrazy

Un

it’s a jOkE, wHy wOuLd I bE wRitIng LiKe tHis

MidwestGun

it’s a jOkE, wHy wOuLd I bE wRitIng LiKe tHis
——–
Because U crazy?

Danny

Saka ‘s fucked up 3 times in 5 minutes, not cool.

That Dreamcast Kid

good stuff from Mustafi 3 clearances in one minute that will surely pad his stats higher against van Dijk now

Leftside

Bellerin still showing he’s got that burst of pace but we could do with another goal as we are starting to switch off.

Guns of SF

Mustafi beasting it now

Danny

Come on Arteta, make some subs.

Nelson

Bring in Laca now!!

That Dreamcast Kid

Özil’s pass is too galaxy-brained for Auba to even anticipate that when he’s on the ball be alert expect him to find you anywhere he will assist you even in the loo

Ahmeducrazy

No one here understands my comedical genius

That Dreamcast Kid

wooot good job Ceballos one more hit and Richarlison will be KO’d

now FINISH HIM!!!!!!

Guns of SF

Xhaka love fest

S Asoa

Ceballos playing soft dirty. It is an art to do it within limits of not attracting a card

Guns of SF

Love how Auba is always tracking back… defends in the box a lot!

TheLegendaryDB10

Ceballos giving it back to Richarlison!

Love it!!!

That Dreamcast Kid

finally that took a long time for cunts to call for that offside

Guns of Brixton

Looking tired here atm tbh

Guns of SF

Im telling you Dani C is no chump.

Guns of Brixton

LENO

Danny

Great save by Leno

That Dreamcast Kid

come on LENOOO please take charge of the box already!!

almost got done again!!!

Dissenter

Leno made up for his earlier mistake

Saka does look tired. He’s making lots of mistakes.

Guns of SF

Saka seems to be fading or tiring

Need subs!

tenerife gooner

Ceba take off please,one more foul its red

Thomas

Lol Saka fucks up AGAIN is that four times in 5 minutes now?

Nelson

I think Saka is tired.

Bamford10

We’re looking both a little tired and a little shaky at the moment. 73rd minute.

Guns of SF

Ozil V Mina
LOL!

Come on Mesut!

MidwestGun

If Mustafi doesn’t have to move he is pretty good at 1v1 defending. Reminds me of Mert in that way.. as well as his mobility issues. Good passer too.. Mert was as well. Still would like to see him not be our starter next season…. just sayin. However if we start winning all our games I think the whole team should go full on bleach head.