Sh*te data and straw men

by .

I am BACK in New York after spending some time in the very beautiful Savannah. I highly recommend if you are ever in Georgia, what a place.

Back home, I was again pondering the weirdness of the criticism that continues to rumble around the new regime. It doesn’t come from serious people, but it is always shocking to me how fucking atrocious internetters are when they’re let loose with bad data.

Comparing Unai Emery to Mikel Arteta is, firstly, a very dumb proposition barely 11 games into his tenure. It’s so dumb, Liverpool fans actually did it when Jurgen Klopp took over from Brendy and started a #KloppOut campaign off the back of it.

This tells you two things.

1. Don’t replicate Liverpool fan behaviour
2. Don’t play the data game unless you are really fucking sure you have a robust argument.

Here is the math for the Spurs fans that were up in your Whatsapp groups with the ‘analysis’ of Arteta courtesy of Champagne Charlie in the comments.

You’re comparing Emery’s point average in a 13 game sample to Arteta’s 8 games. Won’t bother rehashing the old ‘sample argument’ that was brought front and centre with the embarrassing xGA stats previous, will just illustrate with the following:

11 points in 8 games = 1.38
We win our next game = 1.56
We win the game after that = 1.7

The state of trying to pull trends in data with fluctuations like this 😂😂

Also, just like to remind you that Emery was operating with 12 months in the job and 150 mil of talent to supplement HIS football ideology. Mikel Arteta by contrast is picking up pieces mid season.

Another swing, another glaring miss.

Data points you ‘should‘ probably like.

We’ve kept 3 clean sheets on the bounce, 5 in 11 (with two games that we went down to 10 men) with a hodgepodge of teenagers, players we thought were dusted, and plenty of non-defenders mucking in. We can celebrate that. So when certain types say ‘I don’t see an improvement’ ask them if they ever felt like they were watching a team that was tough to break down under Emery, or if they ever felt like they were witnessing something even close to competency when it came to Arsenal defending.

You might also ask who the only team in Europe is to be undefeated in 2020? It’d be Arsenal. Again, not a totally electric statistic because we’ve drawn a lot of games, but when you add in further context, like, say, ‘Emery oversaw our worst start in 30 years and Arteta started in late December’, it starts to feel saucier. Low Scoble rating for sure, but we’re definitely spicier than a Heinz Ketchup at the moment.

Sure, there are lots of things we’d all like to see improve. We’re still making mistakes in dangerous places, our attack is hardly Liverpool fluid, but if you are out here complaining we’re not champions elect form at the moment, you’re a fucking idiot. I’m really sorry to be so blunt, but I absolutely mean it. That Liverpool thing didn’t happen overnight, I can assure you.

Additional areas of improvement to point towards.

You might not like Mustafi, Xhaka, Ozil or Luiz… but you cannot argue their performances have dramatically improved. Shkodran Baresi looked like he’d rather snort a Wuhan sneeze than play a few weeks ago, now he’s operating at a very, very good level of football. Granit Xhaka keeps getting better, I’ve been a vocal anti-advocate of him, I called him a mistake terrorist, but he’s doing well. David Luiz looks reborn, a frizzy-haired warrior. Mesut Ozil is slowly but surely feeling his way back into elite-level football. It’s not a longterm solution, but however you chop it up, players that were once deemed bin-worthy are now delivering hardworking performances. Even players we liked but thought were ill-suited are upping their levels… remember when we assumed Torreira was too small to hack it in the league? That Dani Ceballos was a write-off because his hair was too neat for the UK? It’s great that these players are showing their true colours now they are motivated and fired up about the vision.

‘The Uncoachables’ was such a ridiculous excuse, cooked up by the Emeryista, who still weirdly fetishise a manager about as sexy as a septic cock ring. No elite-level player is uncoachable. Sam Allardyce has made a living training bags of rotten potatoes to keep clean sheets. Hardly a shock that Arteta can make World Cup winners look a little better.

Finally, the kids. You can’t knock ’em. They are stepping up to the plate, learning hard lessons, and rarely hiding. To repeat, Ceballos looks like he might have a future, Guendouzi is a mess but he’s learning from someone that won’t tolerate his drama, Saka looks absolutely elite, Gabriel is inconsistent but taking praise from nobodies like Ronaldinho, and the others are showing they have teeth. Not perfect, but at least they are getting game time and a proper chance under a proper coach.

Moaning we’re not he complete package is such a base strawman argument. No one ever thought we’d be where we needed to be in 2 months. However, we’re starting to get better results, we’re hard to beat, and we’re slowly but surely finding our way in attack. We’re doing all of this without a proper preseason. We were in a process under Emery that wasn’t ever leading to a better Arsenal. That has all changed. Under Arteta it’ll be bumpy, but we’re heading in a direction that’ll take us places. We will need a good summer, lots of hard work, and a good start in August, but I don’t think we’ll be making excuses in May 2021. Unless we fail, then I’ll be blaming hair pills and dry grass for our problems.

Anyway, let’s keep it positive.

We have a chance to show our mettle at home against an Everton side that will give us a very good game at the weekend. Carlo has his players focused, better structured, with bit more bite to their game. He’ll be desperate for the win this weekend, but so will Arsenal. Our club needs momentum, win that game and the next 8 look far more attractive, drop points and it’ll feel like a miserable step back.

I’m still looking for more fluidity in attack. I don’t think we’ve cracked it by a margin, but at this point, I think it’s more about repetition and muscle memory than anything else (with this squad). We need a few sexy goals and a real ‘wow, this is the future’ performance to start the ball rolling there. A simple improvement would be finding the target a little more often. I think the type of chance we’re creating is improving, but some of the shooting has been less than ideal… and from players you expect more from. Imagine me as the coach?

‘Erm, guys, could you try and shoot the ball at the actual goal. Thank you.’

Right, big game tomorrow, fingers crossed we smash them and the Gypsy King deals with the Bronze Bomber. x

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Spanishdave

Auba cut it back ffs

Leedsgunner

*won’t have wait… will have to be on the ball…

Samesong

This game is going to be riddled with mistakes.

Guns of SF

Kola is back.
Not good…. the mojo is off now..

Three idiots at the back!

Danny

Lucky Iwobi had that shot!

That Dreamcast Kid

it’s okay now to show ze mental strength with 83 minutes+additional minutes to go and we’re on full attacking mode anyway

they’ve only just woken the beast time for some spanking

they may try to counter us so need to be cautious in attack not going full gung ho

at least it is an exciting stuff already especially for Alex Cutter eh

Samesong

Who mentioned the long ball. Was 100% right.

Guns of SF

Mustafi got gray hair overnight.
must be the stress

Spanishdave

Comical stuff defending

Habesha Gooner

I wanted torriera. I don’t think Xhaka ceballos are going to cope.

Left Testicle

Neville knows… ‘Some players are uncoachable’.

Dissenter

See how hard Calvert Lewin works
He works like a hunting dog, doesn’t give up on anything.

Leedsgunner

Nothing changes…. Iwobi still makes poor choices when he has better options in the box.

vickingz

See the midfield arteta opted for? See as everton passed them as if they ain’t existing. Neither of xhaka, ceba ozil has pace to run back, kola doesn’t have the pace, our 5 & 6 lacks pace yet arteta rested torr who should be shielding our back 4. Good times

TR7

I hate Mustafi.

Leftside

If it ain’t broke dont fix it

vickingz

Nketiah offers nothing, NOTHING

That Dreamcast Kid

lol come on need to calm down

not all this spaghetti everywhere play on our tempo don’t let them control us instead

Leedsgunner

Mustafi after a couple of decent games… reverting to type.

Guns of SF

Ill be keeping an eye on Bell today. Last time, he was way off, and needed much help defending

Dissenter

Leeds
“Nothing changes…. Iwobi still makes poor choices when he has better options in the box.’

Not your problem now, is out. People like you harassed the kid out of the club,
Focus on your teams shortcomings.

Dissenter

I hope that hair dye didn’t seep into Mustafi’s cerebral mantle.

Guns of SF

bring saka now

Samesong

That was a good shot by Iwobi nothing wrong with taking that on.

Habesha Gooner

Saka is coming on. Kola must have a concussion after that

Dissenter

is Theo on Evertin’s bench?, something tells me he will come in and doing some damage to us today.

Danny S

Dissenter

Yeah iwobi left the club because he was ‘harassed’ haha
Nothing to do with the over the top offer we got for him. Lol

What a dog shite dopey comment.

vickingz

Told y’all that arteta’s decision making will be his greatest undoing. How could you have opted for this selection against Everton, how? Should have played kola on Thursday for goodness sake

Samesong

That’s a high foot any area of the pitch.

Nelson

Up to now, Kola doesn’t make a single forward pass. He is completely useless.

Leftside

Theos not involved at all this afternoon

Paulinho

“Not your problem now, is out. People like you harassed the kid out of the club,
Focus on your teams shortcomings.”

Your man not exactly ripping it up at Everton is he?

Funny how Ramsey is fair game yet you get all paternal over Iwobi.

Danny

Even though Luiz completely fucked up for the goal, it still should’ve been cancelled by VAR, very dangerous high kicking.

Guns of SF

Kola is free money. Got to cash in this summer

vickingz

Game over already

Champagne Charlie

Replay shows Kolasinac played everyone on for the goal, Calvert Lewin was a yard off when the cross came in.

Weird moment for him, simply not switched on and we got killed for it. Bad 15 mins back for the tank.

Leedsgunner

Saka on? I hope we don’t push the kid into burnout territory…

Dissenter

Kola is kinda fragile for a man so well built.
He can’t stay fit fir a minute.

That Dreamcast Kid

blessing in disguise

no hard feeling to Kola but here we go!!!!!

Guns of SF

isnt Walnut injured or something

Nelson

Kola was at fault also during that free kick. He was pushed back and kept everybody onside.

MidwestGun

Hmmm might benefit us.. hate see a dude spitting blood though.. after a concussed blow like that.

Leftside

Saka is coming on but needed to start today. Kola could have started on Thursday now it appears he may miss that fixture.

TR7

Iwobi is dogshite. Whoever at Everton valued him at £40M must be a joker.

Habesha Gooner

Kola is so injury prone and when he is available he is part of our vulnerabilities. We need to sell in the summer.

Everton look more likely to add to their goal tally then we do. In the battle of the sauces, I think it’s advantage Carlos at the moment.

Guns of SF

Saka must be in the red zone
But I will take Saka in the red zone over Kola any day

Useroz

Mustafi is dreaming again ffs

Jim furnell

Kola- chaos confusion, my work here is done. Thank you and goodbye

Left Testicle

Has anyone seen Ozil?

Leftside

And what is that on Mustafis head

Dissenter

Paulinho
I don’t care if Iwobi tears up Everton. He’s an Everton player now and we got good money for him.You can’t stop feeling this Ramsey burn, can you.

Leeds said something silly about the lad, even though his shot missed the goal by whiskers. You on the other hand are just besotted with Ramsey.

Useroz

And Kolac can fuck off

Sid

Isnt Saka in the red zone?

Bamford10

Un Na

Nah, he’s had two bad passes, but so too has Xhaka. Ceballos has made the best pass, Ceballos is our best passer. To each his own opinion, though.

Samesong

Ceballos is being too cautious in my opinion. Jogging around like we are winning.

Guns of SF

The bloody back passing is killing me… like wtf

Guns of SF

be ready for the arteta half time talk… hopefully can wake these idiots up!

TheLegendaryDB10

That peroxide dye Mustafi has really does not suit him.

Kola seems to have broken his arm with the way he fell awkwardly on the ground. Not to mention that somehow the ball landed squarely on his face as well. He did look a bit concussed as well.

Not his lucky day.

Leedsgunner

If fan displeasure could push players out of the club, Mustafi, Xhaka and Özil would be long gone by now.

Iwobi left because Everton decided to pay Arsenal £35m.

I wonder if we could persuade them to pay the same for AMN… clear that Arteta doesn’t favour him at all…

PieAFC

Not keen on the rotation. Bringing players in, keeping everyone happy. Doesn’t seem to be doing anything for our consistency really.

Samesong

Not one shot on target yet.

Sid

Where’s soares?

Useroz

Commentator suggests Luzi should have grabbed his head (and rolled around?). … and VAR might have looked at it

It’s high to be honest but …

Paulinho

Dissenter – You’re the one that can’t help be besotted with Ramsey. Weekly updates of his ‘anonymity’ at Juve, practically begging for a pile on.

Wasn’t an update yesterday strangely enough.

Bamford10

Samesong

That may be the case, but that is also how I think Arteta has instructed them to play. Be hyper-careful with the ball, control possession, always make the right pass, even if it takes an extra moment to decide, etc.

MidwestGun

Don’t worry secret agent Iwobi is still on our side.

Samesong

Auba needs to be central useless on flank.

Useroz

Arghhh… kolac so much for an ‘animal’?! One that get injured rather too often.

Samesong

Nketiah what a finish.

Guns of SF

Saka is literally our only creator – nice pass to Pepe

Champagne Charlie

Sit down those chirping about Nketiah. Great ball Saka

vickingz

Nkechiiiiiiiiiii

Danny

Eddie – brilliant!

Nelson

Eddie scores!!!!!!!

That Dreamcast Kid

hahaha ezpz lemon squeezy

Saka our Sancho

Habesha Gooner

Well done Eddie. Not a whole lot to his game bit he knows where the back of the net is. I just love Saka.

MidwestGun

YES!!!!! get in… nice.

Tony

Great delivery from Saka and finish from Edie.

Leftside

Saka is amazing

Dissenter

Pierre is beaming right non
‘The manager’s faith is justified
Many HAPPY to look foolish. I did say I hope he puts way bis chances.

Santino

Fkin get in

Goonah

Beautiful from the youngsters Saka and Eddie

COYG!!

Bamford10

Great cross, good finish. The boy CAN finish. No doubt. And Saka can REALLY deliver a ball.

Leftside

And well played Eddie

Don’t blame Saks for not signing. Far to good for Arsenal. Wasting his time at this Mickey mouse club.

Guns of SF

Saka MVP

Tony

Hope Ozil is learning from Saka

Nelson

Saka is so much better than Kola. We are a much better team now.

Dissenter

How much is Saka worth right now?

Guns of SF

Up his weekly to about 40K – from his 3k
Saka

azed

Saka with the cross again

Pierre about to gloat!!!

Paulinho

Nketiah is sprightely at moving into space. Got that over the laboured Lacazette.

Dissenter

“Think now we can all be quiet about why Eddie started.Faith repaid.
Yes

Jamie

Saka with another assist. Absolutely incredible numbers. Great ball, great finish. Let’s go!

Jim furnell

The kid is fucking special, thanks for pissing off kola

TR7

Bukayo Saka is amazing, yet another wonderful assist. Great finish from Nketiah. Saka is elite.

PieAFC

Saka what a cross.

Great movement from Eddie.

Say what you like. Two great bits of plays there by both the youngsters!

Left Testicle

Ozil bottled it.

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