Sh*te data and straw men

by .

I am BACK in New York after spending some time in the very beautiful Savannah. I highly recommend if you are ever in Georgia, what a place.

Back home, I was again pondering the weirdness of the criticism that continues to rumble around the new regime. It doesn’t come from serious people, but it is always shocking to me how fucking atrocious internetters are when they’re let loose with bad data.

Comparing Unai Emery to Mikel Arteta is, firstly, a very dumb proposition barely 11 games into his tenure. It’s so dumb, Liverpool fans actually did it when Jurgen Klopp took over from Brendy and started a #KloppOut campaign off the back of it.

This tells you two things.

1. Don’t replicate Liverpool fan behaviour
2. Don’t play the data game unless you are really fucking sure you have a robust argument.

Here is the math for the Spurs fans that were up in your Whatsapp groups with the ‘analysis’ of Arteta courtesy of Champagne Charlie in the comments.

You’re comparing Emery’s point average in a 13 game sample to Arteta’s 8 games. Won’t bother rehashing the old ‘sample argument’ that was brought front and centre with the embarrassing xGA stats previous, will just illustrate with the following:

11 points in 8 games = 1.38
We win our next game = 1.56
We win the game after that = 1.7

The state of trying to pull trends in data with fluctuations like this 😂😂

Also, just like to remind you that Emery was operating with 12 months in the job and 150 mil of talent to supplement HIS football ideology. Mikel Arteta by contrast is picking up pieces mid season.

Another swing, another glaring miss.

Data points you ‘should‘ probably like.

We’ve kept 3 clean sheets on the bounce, 5 in 11 (with two games that we went down to 10 men) with a hodgepodge of teenagers, players we thought were dusted, and plenty of non-defenders mucking in. We can celebrate that. So when certain types say ‘I don’t see an improvement’ ask them if they ever felt like they were watching a team that was tough to break down under Emery, or if they ever felt like they were witnessing something even close to competency when it came to Arsenal defending.

You might also ask who the only team in Europe is to be undefeated in 2020? It’d be Arsenal. Again, not a totally electric statistic because we’ve drawn a lot of games, but when you add in further context, like, say, ‘Emery oversaw our worst start in 30 years and Arteta started in late December’, it starts to feel saucier. Low Scoble rating for sure, but we’re definitely spicier than a Heinz Ketchup at the moment.

Sure, there are lots of things we’d all like to see improve. We’re still making mistakes in dangerous places, our attack is hardly Liverpool fluid, but if you are out here complaining we’re not champions elect form at the moment, you’re a fucking idiot. I’m really sorry to be so blunt, but I absolutely mean it. That Liverpool thing didn’t happen overnight, I can assure you.

Additional areas of improvement to point towards.

You might not like Mustafi, Xhaka, Ozil or Luiz… but you cannot argue their performances have dramatically improved. Shkodran Baresi looked like he’d rather snort a Wuhan sneeze than play a few weeks ago, now he’s operating at a very, very good level of football. Granit Xhaka keeps getting better, I’ve been a vocal anti-advocate of him, I called him a mistake terrorist, but he’s doing well. David Luiz looks reborn, a frizzy-haired warrior. Mesut Ozil is slowly but surely feeling his way back into elite-level football. It’s not a longterm solution, but however you chop it up, players that were once deemed bin-worthy are now delivering hardworking performances. Even players we liked but thought were ill-suited are upping their levels… remember when we assumed Torreira was too small to hack it in the league? That Dani Ceballos was a write-off because his hair was too neat for the UK? It’s great that these players are showing their true colours now they are motivated and fired up about the vision.

‘The Uncoachables’ was such a ridiculous excuse, cooked up by the Emeryista, who still weirdly fetishise a manager about as sexy as a septic cock ring. No elite-level player is uncoachable. Sam Allardyce has made a living training bags of rotten potatoes to keep clean sheets. Hardly a shock that Arteta can make World Cup winners look a little better.

Finally, the kids. You can’t knock ’em. They are stepping up to the plate, learning hard lessons, and rarely hiding. To repeat, Ceballos looks like he might have a future, Guendouzi is a mess but he’s learning from someone that won’t tolerate his drama, Saka looks absolutely elite, Gabriel is inconsistent but taking praise from nobodies like Ronaldinho, and the others are showing they have teeth. Not perfect, but at least they are getting game time and a proper chance under a proper coach.

Moaning we’re not he complete package is such a base strawman argument. No one ever thought we’d be where we needed to be in 2 months. However, we’re starting to get better results, we’re hard to beat, and we’re slowly but surely finding our way in attack. We’re doing all of this without a proper preseason. We were in a process under Emery that wasn’t ever leading to a better Arsenal. That has all changed. Under Arteta it’ll be bumpy, but we’re heading in a direction that’ll take us places. We will need a good summer, lots of hard work, and a good start in August, but I don’t think we’ll be making excuses in May 2021. Unless we fail, then I’ll be blaming hair pills and dry grass for our problems.

Anyway, let’s keep it positive.

We have a chance to show our mettle at home against an Everton side that will give us a very good game at the weekend. Carlo has his players focused, better structured, with bit more bite to their game. He’ll be desperate for the win this weekend, but so will Arsenal. Our club needs momentum, win that game and the next 8 look far more attractive, drop points and it’ll feel like a miserable step back.

I’m still looking for more fluidity in attack. I don’t think we’ve cracked it by a margin, but at this point, I think it’s more about repetition and muscle memory than anything else (with this squad). We need a few sexy goals and a real ‘wow, this is the future’ performance to start the ball rolling there. A simple improvement would be finding the target a little more often. I think the type of chance we’re creating is improving, but some of the shooting has been less than ideal… and from players you expect more from. Imagine me as the coach?

‘Erm, guys, could you try and shoot the ball at the actual goal. Thank you.’

Right, big game tomorrow, fingers crossed we smash them and the Gypsy King deals with the Bronze Bomber. x

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That Dreamcast Kid

Arteta time for another subs time for your in game management to shine

act not react

fast fast

Guns of Brixton

We always gas out at 70 mins.

Gotta improve on that. KMT

Paulinho

Don’t think it’s tiredness. Just lack of quality.

If Everton score you can bet your bottom dollar we will be back on top again looking to get the winner.

Guns of SF

Dani is one nasty fucker… good work today
close shot

That Dreamcast Kid

oooooh would’ve been a great way to for his performance today

the lad deserves a goal

vickingz

Why should ceba come off?

TR7

Ozil has been good in 2nd half. Very good attacking display from Arsneal so far.

Leedsgunner

Leno throwing his body on the line this time to atone for the second goal he conceded earlier.

S Asoa

Saka is so beat his decision making become risky. Maybe Laca should come in

Danny

Awful shot by Ceballos, anyway he’s off now.

Nelson

Ceballos plays very good!

Dissenter

We did play on Thursday so Everton have a massive advantage for the last 20 mins of the game.

Champagne Charlie

We look so leggy

Mics_

Ozil and Ceballos have been excellent today. Sharp passing and good movement. Love the aggression from Ceballos and Ozil menacing their defense.

MidwestGun

I’m applauding Danny Cebs performance today. The midfield didn’t make me angry. Need to close this one out though.

Guns of SF

Good shot by Ceballos, at least someone is going for it!
God knows we need goals from mids!!!!

That Dreamcast Kid

great job to defend that

great job Mustafi to close down

great job Leno to close the window and open up his body

great job Saka to clear that one but it’s clear the boy is tired both mind and body

Dissenter

Good thing we scored that goal in Athens.

That Dreamcast Kid

okay we need to watch out that right flank now Mustafi can’t defend alone where’s Bellerin put on Cedric now please

TR7

Our defense carved open 3 times in last 10 mins or so

Leftside

They’re getting closer

Guns of Brixton

Damn everton close

Oh_Santi

Oooof. Gonna be a nervy last 10 minutes

Guns of Brixton

Living dangerously here.

If we concede

Leftside

We need another goal but we look like we’re sitting on the lead and trying to run down the clock

Dissenter

It’s just fatigue right now, that’s what we are fighting against.

That Dreamcast Kid

err Guen huh not sure about this one

hope he will get redemption and atonement too

as that’s the theme of the day

Red Dead Redemption

Mics_

The lads look tired, understandably. Excellent game from Ozil.

Danny

Guen trying to grow a beard…….

Goonah

Hang on boys.

That Dreamcast Kid

oh if he’s positioned that high and to press for all the remaining match I’m okay with that

now to just see this out

Dissenter

No one can argue that Carlo has not improved Everton. They are quite good now.

Mics_

Nervy stuff.

MidwestGun

Crowd was sensing they needed some energy. 5mins plus injury. Lets go.

Mics_

Agreed, Ancelotti has Everton looking quite formidable.

Mics_

Great pressing from Guendouzi

Leftside

Oooh we gotta score there

Dissenter

Nkettiah is so unlucky
What a wonderful striker of the ball.

MidwestGun

Ohhhh damn hit the post. ugggggh so close.

Danny

Xhaka did very well there, Eddie so unlucky.

Leedsgunner

Unlucky Edddieee…..

That Dreamcast Kid

ahahah finally that’s how Guen should work lolololol

this match is absolute dichotomy from the caretaker’s match earlier in the season

both managers improve the teams good game all around

Leftside

Richarlison the dirty git, and the ref waved it off until assist ref had to correct him

TheLegendaryDB10

What a miss by Eddie!!!

Come on The Arsenal! You can hold on!

That Dreamcast Kid

ooooooooooooooofff Neuer-esque from Leno!!!!!

Danny

Great play by Leno

Mics_

Aubameyang’s work rate is incredible.

Leno has made some incredible stops the last twenty minutes

TR7

Superb work Leno

MidwestGun

Auba has put in a shift today.. defending as well… Holy crap… Leno.. got there.

Guns of Brixton

Eyes closed till FT

Goonah

Omg. Could use some valium right now

Wasi

Leno more than makes up for his mistake .
Super 2nd half.

Leftside

Long 5 mins or so here

Guns of Brixton

We gotta improve energy levels.

Fighting ourselves and opponents.

MidwestGun

5 mins…

Guns of Brixton

5 minutes !!!???

Im out.

That Dreamcast Kid

we’re entering Carlo’s time

ALERT

we’re entering Carlo’s time

Guen just press press then others just clear clear clear

Dissenter

Eddie has been great, totally justified the mangers trust and Pierre’s adulation.

Makes easier to sell both Auba and Laca in the summer.

Zacharse

Emery should go coach in Australia

TheLegendaryDB10

5 mins extra. Knew it.

We just need to hold on!!! Come on we can do it!!!

That Dreamcast Kid

ahhhhh again be confident Leno punch that shit clear that shit why retreat!!!!!!!

Bamford10

Barely holding on here.

MidwestGun

Oh no a late corner.. ugh.

Goonah

Wow. We can’t afford to give teams freekicks and corners

Leedsgunner

Pedro

Hard way or not we’re winning… that’s all that matters at this point.

Guns of Brixton

Oh loooord that was close!!!

That Dreamcast Kid

okaaaaayyyyyyyyy time to milk this as much as possible!!!

Leftside

Man my heart

Jamie

xGA today the stuff of nightmares.

MidwestGun

Fuck sake… hahaha Finally Auba relieved pressure.

Guns of SF

This game makes me want to drink

Dissenter

Arteta has turned Mustafi around.
Now we wont have any problems selling him in the summer.

tenerife gooner

Ozil ,been brilliant.

That Dreamcast Kid

phhhhhhhhheeeeewwwwwww

come on why the fuck squeky bum time there almost dropping spagetthi again

MidwestGun

longest 5 mins ever.

Goonah

Easy win!

Onwards and upwards!

COYG!

Guns of SF

Mustafi man of the match

Danny

Pedro
February 23, 2020 18:20:42
Fuck me we are going about this the hard way.
—————————-
Yeah but it made for an exciting final 5 minutes!
Well done lads!

Habesha Gooner

Energy levels are low. Got the win anyhow.

Bamford10

Hard-fought win. Kudos to the players. But that was none too convincing. I still don’t see this team moving up the table very far, and I definitely don’t buy that this is a top three or top four quality team. No chance.

MidwestGun

Auba Motm for me. Thank God we needed that.

Leftside

Great week for the Arsenal! Well played even though it was tough today.

That Dreamcast Kid

fuckingggg classic match if I ever watched one

thank you and goodnight!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DARE I SAY IT

THE NIGHT OF THE REDEMPTION!!!!

10/10 FOR EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!

Champagne Charlie

1.56 points per game.

Clear improvement confirmed

Leedsgunner

Thank goodness for that.

Mics_

Aubameyang was a monster today

Danny

10 unbeaten

Jamie

Never in doubt.

Invest in:
Manchester United 1 Watford 2
Arsenal 2 Everton 3
Wolves 1 Norwich City 2
And you wont be too far away.

87% Donkey, 13% Potato.

Thomas

Lucky win for Arteta.

grooveydaddy

Now we’re 9th

Woo-hoo!

Guns of SF

Mustafi, Auba, Saka, Dani C

All awesome today

Dissenter

Bamford
We were playing a decent side who are on the upward swing as well.
We played on Thursday , Everton were fresher.
3 wins in one week, that’s what the doctor ordered.

That Dreamcast Kid

Goonah
February 23, 2020 18:26:39
Easy win!

underrated comment

Redtruth

Shocking second half, defence all over the place.

Wasi

Mustafi motm.
Must have monstrous numbers today.
What a turnaround it has been for him.

Guns of SF

Torreira did not do great
I would have kept Dani C on… he really got us going in the second half.
hope to see more from this nasty man

Nelson

That was a hard fought win. For me, Ceballos, Mustafi and Auba are the best. Saka was good the 1st half. He looks tired in the 2nd half.

Redtruth

“Mustafi, Auba, Saka, Dani C”

Saka was terrible, he was a liability…

Guns of SF

Red

and his assist was?