ZERO-SUM TARGETS + TOP 4 RACE UPDATES

by .

So the concentration is back on the Premier League race for top 4. This season is going to go down as one of the best in years. The League is still competitive between Liverpool and City. 3rd and 4th place look very much open to about 5 teams. The relegation battle is fully open as well.

Arsenal are in the mixer for the top 3. Yeah. I’m going to say top 3 because I don’t think Chelsea has been convincing this season and I suspect Tuchel needs a good Champions League run to justify his next major deal.

United slipped yesterday to Watford. As we’ve said many times this season, making top 4 is mostly down to doing well against the teams you are supposed to do well against. A point at Watford just isn’t cutting it right now. We should also factor that they might have a Champions League run in them, their players are toxic, but they love the big occasions, so you might see a dip in the league. Also… their March run is horrendous.

Arsenal has been doing well against so-called lesser sides this season and it’s just as well because 3 of the next 4 games coming up that are against sides you’d fancy us against. March is Watford, Liverpool, Leicester, and Villa. We’re at the stage now where slips are going to be costly. 3 wins is the expectation in those easier games. Liverpool is bonus ball territory, but as Johnny pointed out in the podcast, it really is about time we did something against them in the league. We’re good enough to do so if everyone is fit and the red cards don’t come out.

In an ideal world, you’d want to beat the lesser sides so the sting is taken out of the games against the sides that are tougher. You don’t want to have to go to The Bowl or beat Chelsea to make the top 4.

My view of the top 4 race is that we’re still not favorites, it doesn’t matter how excited you get about this run, United and Spurs have more experienced players. We have the youngest squad in the league, the youngest coach, you can’t pretend that doesn’t mean anything, regardless of how well they are playing, or how good the decisions have been of late. Spurs are 6 points behind us. We haven’t won the games in hand yet. It is going to be really, really difficult to deliver under the pressure.

… but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Again, we discuss the fearlessness of youth on the podcast. Sometimes a lack of experience means a lack of failure baggage. This team hasn’t achieved anything together, but at the same time, they’ve not had years of failing together to bog them down. Spurs have Spursiness, it’s part of their DNA. United players are thinking about futures beyond United this summer because there will be an almighty clear out at Old Trafford. West Ham just don’t look in great shape and their squad is mainly a group of older journeymen cobbled together that are overachieving.

There’s a bit of a tendency for people to create zero-sum scenarios when it comes to Arsenal. 8th place twice, instant sacking. Losing the semi of the Europa League, instant sacking. Losing the first three games of this season, instant sacking. Now we’re already seeing the rumbling of ‘no top 4 this season,’ instant sacking. It sounds good to chat like that because it makes people seem like they’re ruthless, but we’ve seen plenty of times how dumb that sort of approach has been.

Zero-sum management of a football club has seen two projects fail miserably.

Pochettino over at Spurs told Daniel Levy there would be a dip that they’d need to manage and a rebuild that would have to happen. The dip happened, the fans turned, Levy sacked the guy that had talent them to the Champions League because he couldn’t stomach the reality of the cycle that was predicted. He then hired a zero-sum manager, that failed. Now he’s on his 3rd manager since Pochettino, another zero-sum manager that is saying if he doesn’t get what he needs, he’ll walk. Spurs still have no philosophy, no strategy, and a slim hope of moving the club forward this season.

United had a similar issue, but it started with a transfer. They thought their was only one option last summer, to sign Ronaldo to stop City moving on him. He didn’t fit the profile of the project, he rattled the internal squad hierarchy, and he didn’t fit the modern system that had them in 2nd the season before. OGS suffered because of the chaos Ronaldo brought to United. He was sacked, then they hired Rangnick who wasn’t matched to anything they had been trying to do in the past. Looking back, was it fair to bin OGS for the club signing a nostalgia superstar? Who knows… but now they are rolling with a manager that isn’t right, potentially moving to a totally new system, because they didn’t have faith to look at the true root cause of their issues.

Top 6 is the target for Arsenal this season, anything extra is a bonus. We’re not in the race for top 4 because ‘everyone else is shit’ we’re there because we’ve been incredibly consistent this season and we deserve our place there. If we don’t hit the level this season, it’ll be because of experience, the lack of a functional striker, and maybe injuries. But we’ll have the platform, the players will have progressed massively, and we’ll have a culture that is perfectly set to absorb new bodies into it this summer. We can’t keep indulging the ‘I’m not convinced crowd’ because if you aren’t convinced by what you’re seeing now, you are too deeply entrenched in a weird agenda, or you just don’t get the game.

We have 13 cup finals left this season. Watford is the next. We’ve seen what can happen to teams with massive firepower. Arteta needs to make sure the players don’t fall into the same trap the United crew did yesterday.

Just a quick thought on Chelsea and football in general. Isn’t it amazing how fucked the moral compass is in the Premier League? You have Putin’s right credit card putting Chelsea into a trust to avoid UK sanctions, and sections of their fanbase celebrating his intelligence. You have clubs with human rights abusers as owners standing in solidarity with the people of Ukraine. Sky Sports have a journalist parrotting propaganda about Abramovich designed to confuse people. Honestly, how did we let money take us to this position? The idea that it was touch and go whether Russia could host the Champions League final tells you all you need to know. Grim, grim, grim.

Before I go, I wanted to wish Arseblog a happy 20th birthday. Writing about Arsenal every day, like he has, with so much quality and thought, with so much consistency… is an incredible achievement. His work inspired so many of us in the Arsenal creator community and he continues to set the benchmark for us all. If you get the chance, check out his 20 episode podcast series he pulled together, one for every year he’s been in commission. He invited me on to talk about 2018, a remarkable year for what happened and what did NOT happen. 

Then when you’re done with that, tune in to The Arsenal Opinion Podcast with me and Johnny. I am very hungover, but the content was good. 

302 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Dissenter

It’s a good cup final though, for the neutral
It’s just hard for anyone to be neutral towards Chelsea under these circumstances

Dissenter

Chelsea wanted Haaland and were put off by the crazy wage demands
Lukaku was face saving, I think.

Bergkamp63

Probably the best 0-0 I have seen

Bergkamp63

180m for lukaku including wages and bonuses !

Couldn’t happen to a nicer club !

AFC Forever

Bergkamp63
The Lukaku signing is an example of what happens when a club has a bottomless pit of money. The price didn’t matter, they didn’t even need him. That’s why I hinted at the possible reason being so other clubs can’t have him. It’s happened before. Really sticks in my claw, Chelsea have never been honourable or likeable.

Bergkamp63

FFP LOL !

AFC Forever

Diss
Face saving, I’m not so sure they had just won the CL. It smells of Abramovich.

Almuniasaynomore

Has Rudiger taken Evra’s title as most dislikeable prick in the premiership?

AFC Forever

Diss

Face saving? I’m not so sure. They had just won the CL. It smells of Abramovich.

WengerEagle

Mane didn’t do anything wrong. It is called planning for the future.

Mane is 30, Salah is 30 and Firmino is 30/31.

Jota and Diaz are both 25 with half a decade of prime years+ in front of them.

Samesong

There’s this poster (can’t remember the name lol) on here going on for a while now that Wolves are major worry for a top 4 place, always found the opinion very odd because they’ve looked dull whenever I see them play, at least maybe now he could give it a rest

Avi

Bergkamp63 is the one that keeps going on about Wolves. Funny he didn’t say anything after they lost to West Ham.

As good as they have been they are not ready for the top 4 fight.

WengerEagle

No way, most exciting 0-0 ever was our CL last 16 match vs Real Madrid in 2006 at Highbury.

AFC Forever

We’ve been moaning we need a striker, which we do, but both these teams are loaded up front yet they have missed so many straight forward chances. How is this still nil nil…!!?

Bergkamp63

Kelleher has been very assured in this game,

Hope I have not cursed him !

Tom

I’m not sure TAA gives Pool enough going forward to offset how vulnerable he leaves them down that flank..

Little mozart

Enjoying the final of disallowed goals. Long may it continue

Bergkamp63

Samesong,

They did have half their team missing for most of the game today

Avi

Samesong

Really puzzling take tbf, United and Spuds still remain the threat for top4, West Spam will likely fall away, just like Wolves

Batistuta

Salah has been too shit to still be on this pitch

Avi

Pen please! Need to see some tears

Nigel Tufnel

Pierre, In this case I think your trying too hard to be negative about our cutting out the dross. Why is that necessary? You’re only right from a profit/loss standpoint on each player. We took many losses….But we had no option anyway. But that’s the owners problem, and it’s because they trusted bad decisions from execs and Wenger in those years before Arteta. They backed Arteta, in a way, by accepting those losses. To me that’s a poor argument. It’s over and done with. The team is moving on now, I know you recognize that. Question, would you rather we… Read more »

AFC Forever

Respect to Tuchel for that decision with Kepa.

Who has been your man of the match guys?

Bergkamp63

Samesong,

Bergkamp63February 24, 2022 20:32:39
Still think they are not a serious contender for top 4 ?

SamesongFebruary 24, 2022 20:34:24
Bergkamp No.

Seems like you agreed at just gone 8.30pm on Thursday !

Hypocrite !

Avi

Lol

Dissenter

A keeper who’s not fully tuned to the game is like Gareth Southgate subbing in Sanacho + Rashford in the Europe’s final to take penalties.

Dissenter

*European final

AFC Forever

Bergkamp63
Well don’t be. I feel for Wolves, we’ve been there with Arsenal having an intense game on a Thursday night & then playing Sunday. Physically & mentally it’s a disadvantage.

WengerEagle

Worked a charm for LVG in the 2014 WC Dissenter.

If Kepa is a better penalty-stopper it is the right call.

Pierre

Nigel
“So being stubborn and keeping them is what you suggest?How is that better?”

You’re doing a good impression of weagle and making things up/twisting my words ….you said it was “almost a miracle” , I pointed out that paying players to leave and giving them away for nothing was hardly a miracle

Dissenter

Kepa needs a card
Too much drama

AFC Forever

Dissenter, penalties aren’t different. Liverpool keeper hasn’t got near one yet. I will send you something about why goalkeepers have to gamble and go first, the science behind it is so interesting.

AFC Forever

Oops. penalties ARE different.

Dissenter

Kepa isn’t even coming close

AFC Forever

These penalties have been quality – so far.

Pierre

Nigel
“We cleared the largest pile of dross you can imagine, in less than 2 seasons and are now playing great and set to bring in quality.”

That pile of dross finished a point off 5th and reached a European cup final …

Dissenter

Looks like Russian roulette to me

Mendy may have saved one with his arse

AFC Forever

Salahs penalty was ridiculous.

Dissenter

It’s more of which player will miss first

Habesha Gooner

Who is going to fuck it up first

Habesha Gooner

Origi to do it

Dissenter

Does anyone still think Kepa is a penalty specialist

Habesha Gooner

It is getting boring

Dissenter

I may have spoken too soon

Dissenter

The goalies will take penalties soon

Dissenter

Let them try one penalty blindfolded

Tom

Poetic justice

Habesha Gooner

😂😂😂😂 Chelsea subbed him for that. You couldn’t write it.

raptora

That Kepa pen.

Dissenter

Hahahahahahaha

Kepa-locious

Stupid idea
They should have learned from Gareth Southgate

AFC Forever

Thank god Liverpool won.

11-10 on penalties, incredible. That Fabinho performance and penalty need a real mention.

Bergkamp63

Kepa with Ruga pen !

G8

HAHAHA cnuts !

AFC Forever

Got to say that last penalty was quite a thing. The rest were almost unstoppable!

Hope Abramovich is choking.

MidwestGun

Not sure if it is any form of justice.. but it sure is a victory for karma.

Avi

Kepa lol, what a shocking pen, almost like a goalkick

Tom

Now that Klopp has won the most important competition there is the CL, FA cup, and the league are a free hit.

AFC Forever

Ukraine 1 -0 Russia.

WengerEagle

Ouch for Kepa. Specially subbed on for pens and fails to save even 1 of 11 and skies his own for good measure.

Redbearer

Absolutely Midwest… Karma

AFC Forever

Midwest

“ Not sure if it is any form of justice.. but it sure is a victory for karma.”

This.

Avi

Hopefully thats Chavs confidence in the gutters and they lost their next 5 games hahahaa

Habesha Gooner

Of I am being honest though, Liverpool deserve more than two trophies for the last two, three years. But not any more than this. We need to be back and add ourselves to the mix for the biggest trophies.

AFC Forever

Avi

No, hopefully they freeze the Russians assets and Chelsea get what they deserve.

MidwestGun

Redbearer yep.. the Chelski players pretending to care about Ukraine at the start was a bit much for me. If they cared they would donate their paychecks to war victims or until there Putin Croney owner sold the team. And maybe some of them will.. But anyhow.. happy they lost.

Avi

AFC

Hopefully they suffer both blows then lol

Avi

Can’t wait to see Ramsdale on pen duty someday, saving them as well as chucking one in if it comes to that too, with a large grin on his face

Habesha Gooner

Midwest
That’s a bit too far. They are only players.. It’s like holding the Newcastle players accountable for the atrocities that the Saudi government causes. The players are only there to earn a living. They might actually care. It’s unfair to criticize them.

MidwestGun

Habesha its not too much … I f I was a player I would do it. Or at least make public my disdain by a donation of some type.

Redbearer

Midwest…. Most definitely the Chavs are a soulless bunch of money grabbing Kremlin endorsed fuckards. At least the trophy went to the team in Red!

AFC Forever

Criticism should be aimed at the football authorities. It’s an utter disgrace a Russian crook connected to Putin was allowed to change our game forever.

As for allowing the Saudi’s to buy Newcastle, no words.

Sums up what we all know, follow the money.

Tom

Milner takes best pens period.

Any keeper moving first on a Jorginho pen might as well turn his back on it.
Dumb.

MidwestGun

If there was some sort of recognition about victims of Saudi crime before the match it might be the same for Newcastle players. I’m not holding the players accountable.. but so many players pretend to care about social justice issues. when it doesnt involve them directly. Would be nice to see some of them step up.

Habesha Gooner

Midwest
I guess I have different opinions on who should feel guilt and accountability. If the football Authorities deemed Abramovich and the Saudis as morally sound owners, then it is not up to the players to donate anything. I have never seen a clean Billionaire. Players are going to play for one crook or the other. It wouldn’t have been if teams were actually owned by fans.

Redbearer

Morals, Principles, Values… I suppose it depends what to chose to do…. much like Zouma deciding to kick cats…. we all have a choice in who we are and what we represent. If I was a player today and had that opportunity then I would like to try to do the right thing. Rashford is a good example despite him having to deal with the other Manure players, so I can see why he doesn’t currently fit in but of course that’s to our benefit.

AFC Forever

Midwest

“At least show my disdain by making a donation of some type”

I think you make a good point. Sadly, we live in a virtue signalling world where nothing is sincere. People say things they don’t really mean just to make themselves look good.

Tom

The whole of Europe should unite and black list Russian interests in all walks of life.
Poland has refused to play the Russian team in the WC elimination round.
Everyone should follow suit in all sporting disciplines.
Putin has 70% approval in Russia and it went up in the run up to the invasion.
This shouldn’t be just about oligarchs who can fuck off to their 500m yachts.

MidwestGun

Habesha the point is before the match they made a large point about the players all showing solidarity for the victims of Ukraine. It’s a bit hypocritical then as player for the dude who signs your paycheck then to do nothing.

If they had a moment of silence for victims of Walmart crime.. I might ask the same for Arsenal players.

Redbearer

If only teams were owned by the fans but at least we have a pretty good model / project. Admittedly here were times in the past when I doubted it but now we are on track.

Redbearer

Yeah we should not take anymore shit from the Russians. They come over here and poison people and generally think that the world revolves around them… their arrogance disgust me!

MidwestGun

Anyhow.. I guess it does get into a debate about morality and your responsibility as an owner or a player to big issues when it directly involves you. I myself would find it hard to play for Chelski right now. But I guess that’s a debate for a different blog as well. So.. I’ll just leave it at I’m happy Chelski lost today.

Habesha Gooner

Midwest
They are just doing what they have to do to avoid questions. You might call it hypocrisy, I call it being a company man.

Anyway Putin is a thug and I feel for ukranians. But I hope people keep the same energy when America decides to “liberate” another country like Iraq in the future.

AFC Forever

Habesha You make some valid points. As you say the players don’t bear any responsibility, perhaps the Chelsea players are frightened their next cup of tea might be their last…..?? However, fiddling your accounts is a bit different to the state sponsorship of assassination, which Russia and Saudi Arabia are guilty of. However, I’m with Midwest on the issue that ‘talk is cheap’. Too much virtue signalling today with nothing to back it up. The ‘Look at me, I’m so nice…’ is usually a sure sign you’re dealing with a serial hypocrite who is far from nice. The Premier Leagues… Read more »

Ben Choode

Where has this disdain been for Abramovich, his companies have donated $100m to Israeli settler groups? The faux outrage makes people feel better but shows the extent of hypocrisy we all live in.

CG

AFC Goon

“”::Criticism should be aimed at the football authorities. It’s an utter disgrace a Russian crook connected to Putin was allowed to change our game forever.””””

Well said.! My you have had a good few hours..

This is what our A.Wenger had to deal with.

The Oligarchs
The Sovereign States.
The Duplicity.

And he dealt with it , with class and dignity.
And still achieved 20 years of Top 4.

Wenger vindicated: Putin sponsored financial dopers- NOW OFFICIAL!

MidwestGun

Habesha- I would not expect Kroenke to take responsibility for the actions of America. We are a democracy and Kroenke is not in the Cabinet of the president. Not quite the same situation as Roman A. and Putin.

Dissenter

Have to be careful not to assume that all Russians love Putin
As many as 3,000 Russians arrested demonstrating against the war and I bet it takes lots of guts to go out to the streets to protest in Russia.
I read that even Abrahmovich’s daughter tweeted something anti-Putin last week, for whatever that is worth.

Just want to put out the other side of the picture

Habesha Gooner

Midwest
I hear you. I am just generally talking about the news and the outrage against Russia. It is terrible. But it has happened before. Only this time it is in Europe and it isn’t done by the west. But Abramovich is as accountable as the Russian government. It would also be the case for the Saudis.

Redbearer

Usually such donations come at a price… i.e. you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours. I don’t trust them and never will. Too much bad blood, leopards don’t change their spots.

MidwestGun

Habesha yep… I do agree it’s easy to get on a moral high horse right now.. so .. I won’t. We will see what happens with sanctions and what not with regards to Chelski.

Habesha Gooner

AFC
I am trying to be honest here. Lots of people wouldn’t do anything more than a pointless gesture if they were in the player’s shoes. But that doesn’t make you a bad person in my opinion. Just not particularly a good one.

Dissenter

Abhrahomich;s problem may be that he’s a loyal Russian who has too much to lose by going against Putin
He saw the way Putin punished the oligarchs that defied him and has fallen in line.

British society has benefitted from these offshore Russian money, same way Germany depends on Russian natural gas.
How many empty mansions in areas of Londonville are owned by rich Russians?

Nigel Tufnel

Pierre, That pile of dross we had under Emery was going nowhere.. anybody who likes to talk about that time at Arsenal like it was good, or special, only does that to counter everything positive Pedro posts. Grabbing 4th or 5th under Emery was temporary distraction from a mess of a club. Aging, imbalanced squad with no real future. That team was going to fall further down the table over the course of years. No top manager was going to fix that. We needed what is called a re-set. Now we’re at a great place to build and achieve something… Read more »

Redbearer

CG – Yes Wenger was class and understood about doing things properly. The EPL is corrupt and remains financed by the riches of these unsavoury nations. However I’d also say that the powers that be allow this shit to happen so our country is at times whoring itself about… fucking double standards at times and it must stop but who has the guts to stop it? It’s a crazy world run by plenty of self-obsessed pricks imo

Ben Choode

Mike Ashley is a crook yet he doesn’t get a mention because he’s ‘one of our own’. No one questions US ownership becuase of course coming from the land of the free their money is clean and proper?!? It’s always these foreigners from the East… if one thing the football community of sound and mind can do is be consistent.

Habesha Gooner

It is a world run by crooked politicians and crooked Billionaires. The day that changes is when we will have evolved as a species let alone as individual countries.

AFC Forever

Dissenter You are right, the Russian people aren’t all behind Putin. Why would they be nobody wants to live under an authoritarian communist dictatorship. That’s not freedom. The problem is, the people aren’t free so some will be scared to protest too much. Also, Putins stance is approved of by many Russian people. Why? Because he can claim that allowing Ukraine to join NATO via the EU, cuts off Crimea (his naval bases) and surrounds Russia with NATO Countries. (Similar to why the USA went into Cuba with Russian missile bases). So the tyrant pushes that narrative about Russia being… Read more »

AFC Forever

…sorry about the politics, I usually steer we’ll clear!

Good to see we all come together on this!

AFC Forever

Ben Choode’

“Mike Ashley is a crook yet he doesn’t get a mention because he’s ‘one of our own”

Has he sponsored assassins and sent them to a foreign embassy to murder a journalist?

Has he sponsored assassins and sent them out with poison to murder innocent civilians in another Country?

I don’t understand your point!!?? Do you?

Redbearer

AFC – Good stuff… hopefully they have better sense to avoid attacking NATO based countries and if they do then I’m sure it’ll all kick off…. it is one giant mess but maybe this is because we are led by these dicks. I’ve heard that Trump was backing Putin which sums up the measure of the man!

Nigel Tufnel

Trump kept banging the table that Merkels energy deals with Russia were a huge problem in many ways. Common sense, by the way… coming from a businessman.

Everybody ignored it.