I’m going to start the blog with a philosophical theory.
Occam’s razor (or Ockham’s razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose an event has two possible explanations. The explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is usually correct. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation.
Aston Villa triggered me yesterday. The threat of them taking away Emile Smith Rowe felt painful. I reacted.
… but I was wrong.
Why? Occam’s razor.
The fewest assumptions, in relation to Smith Rowe, would have him staying at Arsenal and signing a new deal.
Reasons to go to Aston Villa: Zero
Would he get more minutes? No
Can they pay more money? No
Does he have a bond with the club or the area? No
Is there anything about Aston Villa that is more appealing than Arsenal? No
Next up, do Aston Villa have a reason to pursue Emile Smith Rowe? Yes
They are about the lose Jack Grealish to a major club this summer for big money. This is humiliating. It could basically make them relegation fodder.
So what is a good counter-punch? Trying to unseat Emile Smith Rowe. Villa fans are in the comments under my Youtube video crowing. They genuinely believe this is a real story. I pity them. They have fallen for it.
It’s low-level propaganda people. That is the simplest assumption and most likely the closest to the truth.
The final question we need to ask. Does Mikel Arteta have a history of losing his best players?
Not really.
Emi Martinez is the closest you’ll get on this one. But look, he’d been at Arsenal for a decade, he’d played 12 good games for Arsenal, and we stuck it out with a keeper who’d been a big performer for us. Do I regret that move? Absolutely, I preferred Emi, but let’s not pretend that this is the same thing.
We kept Auba when everyone thought he was leaving last season.
We signed Martinelli to a 5 year deal.
We signed Sir Bukayo Saka to a 5 year deal.
We even managed to tie down Flo Balogun to a 5 year deal, which absolutely no one thought was possible.
Actually, one more area to ponder.
Would Arsenal sell Smith Rowe to fund a bigger purchase?
Edu is in the last chance saloon this summer, he understands the fans, he knows what young players mean to us.
Vinai will absolutely know the power of young players, he’s seen the attachment we formed with players of the past, there’s simply no way our Chief Exec would not see this as a pivotal signing.
Finally, Arteta has made many mistakes, but I simply refuse to believe he doesn’t understand what Smith Rowe did for his career and what he means for the fans. You cannot talk about the values of Arsenal FC and not clearly understand that Smith Rowe is one of our top 3 players going into this season. He was the reasons we went on the post-Xmas run. He is the catalyst for energy in our starting 11. He is Star Boy #2. Arteta had to constantly tell journalists you can’t field 11 kids. He knows what Smith Rowe means to Arsenal fans.
If Occam’s razor could predict, it would probably say the most likely outcome here is that Emile Smith Rowe signs a new deal.
If this doesn’t happen, I am quitting the blog world. I will give the podcast to Johnny and Matt. I will never show my face on the internet again. I absolutely refuse to believe the club I love could do something as stupid as selling a 20 years old sensation like Smith Rowe. If they do, I think it was severely damage my relationship with the club and I think a lot of us feel that way.
So let’s see what Edu has got. If he does the deal here, you have to say, he’s moved us forward with regards to contracts. We’re stemming the flow of Serge Gnabry’s leaving the club. That’s a huge step forward.
In other news, it seems like we’re close to getting Tavares, Ben White, and Lokonga into the club. 3 players sub 24 years old. High levels of technical ability, all with there relevant athletic profile, all feels like they’ve been well scouted.
Ben White will probably take a while. The England player will have to have 4 weeks break and I very much doubt Arsenal are going to want to pick up wages for a player that isn’t at the training ground. There’s money to spend this summer, but remember, this is still the club that was rationing people’s microwave minutes last year to save money.
There will certainly be movement on the attacking midfielder front as well. James Maddison feels like a pipe dream, but who knows. I think Housem Auour at £30m could be the steal of the summer. I also think you have to allow Edu to get his kicks with Brazilians. Barcelona is in deep shit financially and I just can’t imagine Coutinho isn’t on a list somewhere. Say what you will about him, he’s played in the Premier League, he’s hugely experienced, he’s won things, and he’s better than anything we have at the moment. The job of that attacking role is to add goals and final balls. He offers both. I’d prefer it if we aged down, but as Edu deals go, this wouldn’t be the worst if you’re trying to bring Smith Rowe through with someone to learn from.
I also expect a right back to happen. Hector isn’t cutting it, Inter Milan is interested, if we move him on, we need to upgrade and find someone that can do the bits we need. I’d love it to be Ainsley, but I’m not sure he’s going to cut it after a duff loan move and all the other bits of nonsense that go on.
The big question I have is around Lokonga. Are we really going to role with him as a started next season? Seems a touch risky. The Belgian League isn’t strong and he’ll need time to adapt. Who is going to replace Granit Xhaka? The Italian press won’t leave the Premier League rumor alone. There’s talk that he is under a bid from England and it’s a big deal. Juventus hasn’t engaged yet and are obviously skint. He’s a very, very good player… but I just can’t see an Italian moving? They travel worse than English players. BUT… what a signings. AND… he’s a Kia player. Is the Brazilian Transfer Mafia going to do something nice for us this summer? Let’s see…
Ok, lots I’ve just rattled through today. Stay strong on Smith Rowe and believe that our club might have turned the corner on masochistic behavior.
RIGHT. I recorded a new podcast with Johnny… we dropped it on Twitch, people actually showed up… so here’s the video.
If you want the podcast in the normal place, find it here.
First?
Wow
Third?
Tro4phy
It’s lonely here. Finished reading before realizing no comments
No. 6
No 7?
No. 8?
No. 9
Top 10 is all mine.?
Who is joining ?
Home alone?
Aston Villa is a joke
ESR stays.
Where is everyone and where are the new signings?
Pre-season is here and no one in yet. Typical Arsenal. We never change
Stop
Martinez may have something to do with unsettling ESR as he knows him well and may try to influence him to leave us.
We are a weakened club with a poor management set us so some players will not feel that hey want to devote themselves to us a s we are going nowhere right now.
Saka will leave if we show no ambition in moving forward
” Does Mikel Arteta have a history of losing his best players?”
He’s only been in the job 18 months and Xhaka’s off – Arteta’s first name on the team sheet.
I just do not see any upside for ESR to leave a mid table side(us) to go to another mid table side(them).I am hopeful we will carry on our decent end to last season and become a top 6 side,however I think Villa will struggle once Jack leaves them.
I think we are at a defining juncture,if we dont start well,Mr Arteta will be rightly shown the door.
Hopefully on the transfer front things will start to pick up,they need to.
Sid, was waiting for someone to take over. Glad you are here
Tom,( from previous thread) Your post at 14:59 was very good,I think you made several excellent points. The argument over last nights penalty has brought several issues to the surface * What is cheating now when it comes to winning/ earning frees? Ethics in the game in general. I coach 3 teams u-15,u-17,u-19 and I am genuinely confused now as to how to approach the issue. I had been against simulation but I’m tired of explaining to the young lads after losing to a dodgy decision that the moral victory was theirs. They’re Irish for gods sake,moral victories are all… Read more »
“I think we are at a defining juncture,if we dont start well,Mr Arteta will be rightly shown the door.”
We’ve got a difficult start fixture wise, players who’ve been at the Euro’s who won’t be up to speed, new players (hopefully) who won’t have settled and who might also have been at the Euro’s as well as Gabriel out injured and Martinelli at the Olympics.
A good start is going to be incredibly difficult.
Considering how many didn’t like Ozil due to his attitude and the perception he wasn’t a warrior, why are so many of you jizzing to Auoar?
He had one good season, two seasons ago. He’s not got a fighting mentality and is mentally fragile AND he’s quite injury prone.
Then factor in he has to adapt to the PL too and I am convinced people aren’t following Auoar at all.
Pedro
You just gave me a bit of hope:
Aston Villa get relegated and we buy Martinez back!
Brill!
Thanks!
What was the objective verdict on Ainsley MN on loan? Early reports were great, then it seemed to be a mixed bag. Can’t say I paid much attention. But still seems like a player worth keeping to me.
Didn’t understand the paragraph at the end about Lokonga? Italian press? Locatelli?
morning all
Greg
He wants to leave.
could this really be us?
https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1413133944690675716
Pedro
Im all good with Aouar and Coutinho
A nice blend of attacking and experience…
If we land Loca, then its
Loca, TP, Aouar for me in a 433 makes good balance
Guns,
That CEO seems to me to be acting the bollox. Ask yourself why he keeps referencing Juve. We’re just a stooge in all this.
Almunia (from previous) VAR is not that difficult to implement. I have always suspected that they don’t want it to work and there is clearly a directive not to go against the on-field referee. I think the fact they have decided to implement it for “Clear and Obvious mistakes” and not to get correct decisions is where the problem lies. They don’t want to undermine the referee. Take the blatant Burnley handball incident. That happened one week after the handball rules were clarified to make it clear that the ball hitting an arm in an unnatural position would be handball.… Read more »
Evening, 175 million for haaland is stupid money but he’s putting up the numbers that justify it. If Chelsea are bidding now and can secure him at that price it avoids the bun fight in a years time, when teams have had a year to get finances in order. Fans will be back in grounds with corporate money back as well. So paying more now makes sense. Who else needs him now and has the money other than city. Pep says city can’t afford kane at over 100 million, psg are covered unless mbappe or neymar move on which is… Read more »
AFC, That is also my take and I know it’s a rabbit hole we’re going down here but the fact that there is no consistency in the use of VAR stinks to me. In particular the refs use of the pitch side monitor. The prem refs rarely use it because it returns the decision to them with the added burden that everyone knows they have the advantage of multi angled replays. Difficult to unfairly influence matches that way. However by not going to the monitor the ref can blame the boys in the truck, while they can blame him under… Read more »
ESR will absolutely leave the club. I’ll tell you why: we’re a shitty outfit with a history of some of the worst deals in football. Some of the Ins and outs have been criminal…and we’re only talking the last 12 months or so. If we go back further, there’s a book about how shit we are in the transfer market.
We are always the last club to move on a player.
* enough latitude there to cheat
Martinez may have something to do with unsettling ESR as he knows him well
———————
Knows him well? Who said? Do you know everybody at your work well?
Guns, I hope ESR leaves the club in five years time and RM pay £120 million for the pleasure!
The final question we need to ask. Does Mikel Arteta have a history of losing his best players?
Pedro with all due respect who would want our players outside of saka or Esr. no one else sets the world on fire, maybe that’s why arteta can’t lose players.
We can’t give away most of our players, there isn’t a huge clamor of clubs trying to snatch them away is there.
Guns good to see you back .
Are you well mate. Enjoying the euros.
If we get Coutinho I’m having a party! That boy can play and he’s proved it in the Premier League too. It’s funny, I was watching a couple of Arsenal highlights with Santi Cazorla. You forget just how good he was. Incredible player, I’ve missed the ballers:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehgIIKesS94
Up for
I don’t really post much. Just an avid reader of the blog these days.
To be honest, yesterday was the first full game I watched. My little boy will not allow anything except Hey Duggee on tv.
You good?
There are so many counterpoints to every one of your questions, Pedro.
Ask yourself the most important questions…
1. Is ESR happy at Arsenal?
2. Is he going to get steady playing time under Arteta?
3. Why has Arsenal not come out directly and stated that ESR is not for sale?
Somewhat odd that Villa keep probing and Arsenal and ESR are remaining quiet, dont you think?
Almunia
Yep, pretty much. The day I started becoming a bit more aware of these things was after that 50th game. It’s a bit like the Jimmy Saville business, you look back and you can see how bloody obvious it all was. So I wouldn’t trust Mike Riley to look after my parrot – and I don’t actually have one.
Guns,
Yeah im good, hey Duggee? I won’t ask!
Yeah took me awhile to get into the games
Tournament football hasn’t grabbed me much these last couple of years.
Saying that following arsenal hasn’t been grabbing my attention much these last few years either.
Let’s hope it improves, im not holding my breath though.
I asked this question before: Why isn’t there a single report or opinion piece about why ESR hasn’t resigned with Arsenal? Everyone seems overly confident he WON’T sign for AV and it’s just a matter of time before he resigns with Arsenal — but he hasn’t, and no one seems to want to speculate or find out why. Is it the direction of the club? Is it the manager? Does he want guarantees that he’ll be the #10, and not be pushed out wide in favor of an incoming #10 (Maddison/Aouar)? There’s clearly something going on that’s stopping him from… Read more »
Up for.
Same here. It’s hard to get excited about the gunners.
The point of selling ESR would have to be balanced by replacing him, at some cost, and also another player for the 10 role if the second half of last season is anything to go by so for me it’s a non starter. ESR has to be worth in excess of £50M given his recent form plus potential, and he’s worth that much at least to Arsenal.
testing
AFC
50th at OT did it for me too. I still look back at that occasionally to remind myself and I’m still flabbergasted by it. But utd decisions in general throughout the pl era are too many and too blatant to be explained away by anything other than corruption.
GOH The only way to get excited about the present set up is to play the youngsters and see how they get on. Smith rowe and saka saved Arteta his job , Willock proved he can do it in the prem by saving Newcastle from relegation . Saliba and Guendouzi had good loan spells. Martinelli and Balogun are potentially explosive. Nelson and Nketiah are still waiting to be given a chance in the league Azeez is another with potential. Put them with Partey , Tierney , Pepe, Leno, Holding , Mari and Chambers . Bring in a right back( Dumfries)… Read more »
Pedro self-correcting after yesterday’s falling out of line post 🙂
That mild dissent at Arteta didn’t even last 24 hours.
Almunia “50th at OT did it for me too. I still look back at that occasionally to remind myself and I’m still flabbergasted by it. But utd decisions in general throughout the pl era are too many and too blatant to be explained away by anything other than corruption”. Yep, Graham Poll talked about the intimidation Fergie orchestrated. He said it started on arrival with Fergies staff in their ears before they even got changed! But that 50th game, there were just too many wrong decisions. Ferdinands last-man foul on Freddie, Nistelrooy raking his studs down Cole’s shins in front… Read more »
Bizarre to say that Villa are trying to unsettle us is the simplest explanation. What about they’re bidding for a player that they want to buy?
As for paying him more money haven’t we been discussing how AFC have been low balling with £30k pw offers? Villa would surely pay a £30m signing far more than that!
Coutinho? Will we ever learn? Blanket ban on ageing stars looking for one last big pay day please.
Dissenter
I’m encouraged it happened at all!
What is the problem with Villa trying for ESR? Arsenal are at fault for not prioritising a new contract for ESR with a salary level to reflect his contribution last season.
I still refuse to believe ESR will be sold. The club would know the backlash from the fans were that to happen. That’s one of many reasons it wouldn’t make any sense.
I echo the thoughts of others here, his sales would severely dent my faith (which is already dwindling) in this clubs values, ambition and competence.
Aussie
Haven’t we had a couple of bids for White knocked back but gone back with increased offers? My guess is Pedro’s worried because he thinks Arteta might just say yes.
Diet Pep would play Santi on the left wing and Coqeulin behind him for ‘defensive solidity’
Marc
If Arsenal actually sold ESR I think Pedro would spontaneously combust!!!!!
We aren’t selling ESR unless the offer is too good to refuse.
It looks like Gabriel suffers from tendonitis. This could be anything from a few weeks rest to 6 months post operative recovery. No one is saying much at the moment. A good enough reason to keep Saliba at the club? The thought of starting the season with just Holding, Mari and Chambers as the only fit CBs is scary enough without hearing the overtures for Mari from Besiktas.I won’t even mention the midfield! It is hard to believe that after all this time we still don’t have an adequate player roster for the new season starting in about a months… Read more »
Aussie
I reckon we’d need to stage an intervention!
At least we are top of the pre 14th August table!
Great piece today.
Except this part:
“If this doesn’t happen, I am quitting the blog world.”
Devastating.
If smith rowe goes or stays it doesn’t really matter, we are, and will continue to be shit with arteta, edu and the kroenkes at the helm
Aussie: “At least we are top of the pre 14th August table!”
Come on you Gunners!!!
I love Smith-Rowe, but he’s played half a season in the PL, and we don’t want to get into the habit of caving into agents based off such a small sample size, for a player that’s had lots of injury issues Put an attractive offer on the table, then walk away Gently explaining first to the players camp, that the player isn’t for sale at any price, and it’s the clubs policy not to educate young players, so that other clubs can benefit from that education We shouldn’t get into the habit of paying young players senior wages, after 5… Read more »
Just want to take the opportunity to reiterate the importance of Arsenal buying a CAM this summer. See some fans write about needs elsewhere and being hesitant to drop money on someone who will relegate ESR to the bench etc. Here’s a visual aid to show you where our two bright prospects rank alongside a guy rivalling the leagues best creative midfielder (KDB) for deciding actions: https://mobile.twitter.com/adamvoge/status/1413177634616381440?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet I think we can all agree players like ESR, Saka, Martinelli, and Balogun are fantastic sources of excitement and potential. But this football club has ambitions that require more than a core group… Read more »
Pedri will become a bigger star than Mbappe and Haaland.
“small sample size”
Ah, the Emi Martinez justification. How did that work out?
It’s decision time. If he’s a £30m player pay him as such. If not, sell him.
Comes down to the manager’s judgement just as it should do.
CC Completely agree, a more senior player will take some of the pressure off the younger players shoulders, which should liberate them, and give them room to grow We need an attacking midfielder who can give us a combined 20 goals + assists next season We invested big money in Aubameyang + Pepe, and while neither are stylistically my type of players, we have to try and extract the maximum value out of those players In spite of both players flaws, if we create the right type of chances, and get the ball into them earlier into the right type… Read more »
Rich ESR isn’t that far behind Saka When he went on loan to Leipzig they tried to sign him, if I recall Now a premier league club has come back thrice with s substantial offer to sign him. There are no more ands, ifs or buts with ESR, he has to be taken seriously If his agent is truly behind the engineered Villa bids, then good for him because that should remind Arsenal to not treat him like he’s some kid. Just because the player is from our academy does not mean they should put up with shite. The kid… Read more »
andy
Not sure I want Arteta’s judgement on anything taken into account.
Marc, donut you want to see Pedro spontaneously combust?
Donut = don’t although donut is good too
Dissenter I never said we shouldn’t offer him a nice deal, but there should be a limit to how far we go, and not just with Smith-Rowe, but with most players, we should heavily incentivise most deals Arsenal can’t afford to make the going rate for 20yr old players, with half a season of PL football behind them, £100,000+ p/w It’s absolutely unsustainable Saka at 19 is starring for England, he’s proved himself robust enough to play a season of PL football, even though we over played him last season Smith-Rowe looks a brilliant young talent, but he’s way behind… Read more »
Really enjoyed the podcast nice to see a face to the name oh and fuck of villa
Rich “Arsenal can’t afford to make the going rate for 20yr old players, with half a season of PL football behind them, £100,000+ p/w” … but Arsenal can afford to pay past-it Chelsea restaurateurs almost 200k weekly on extended contracts Don’t you know that the agents of the youngsters can see all that crap we have been doing all this while? Besides, I don’t know where you got 100k weekly from? No one has ever suggested that ESR is asking for 100k weekly but he is right to strive to get as much as he can get. If Arsenal can’t… Read more »
andy
No I really don’t. I’d like Pedro to get over his man crush but ultimately I’d like him to get back to looking at what’s best for the club and bin off all the bullshit agenda’s or at least not encourage them.
What I am struggling with at the moment is the podcast thing – I can’t look at it without thinking of Duane Dibbley but I’ve no idea why?
Dissenter Justifying overpaying young players before they’ve proved anything With the logic that we overpay established dross, so we should overpay our youngsters Is a deeply flawed logic, you don’t solve problems, by making more problems You adjust your wage bill at the other end, you don’t create a situation where you overpay your players at both ends of their careers My point about Smith Rowe is that there has to be a point in which we walk away from the table It’s like winning £100 million on the lottery, going to view a house, then saying “I must have… Read more »
30k salary is laughable if you put into perspective how important those players are – Saka and ESR. I know that it’s very common for academy players that do well to sign new deals almost every year, each time on a higher salary, I stand by that, it’s how it should be. But give ESR a 45-50k salary, in 2 years time give him 60-70k, then in 5 years, if he’s developed like we all hope, slap that 90-130k pw. Paying absolutely core, vital players like Saka and ESR 1/6 of Willian or Lacazette’s wage makes no sense. Even Nketiah… Read more »
Marc,
It must be Pedro’s monk haircut.
raptora
I really don’t need you highlighting it! I paid Pedro a compliment the other day and he deleted the comment and binned me.
Charlie ” think we can all agree players like ESR, Saka, Martinelli, and Balogun are fantastic sources of excitement and potential. But this football club has ambitions that require more than a core group of promising players, and forgetting that’s all these guys are right now is a fools game.” I think some are underplaying Smith Rowe’s influence on our performances from Christmas onwards… I would say that without the arrival of Smith Rowe at Christmas, our season was dead in the water as was Arteta. Odegaard started his first game over 6 weeks later and his arrival pushed Smith… Read more »
Rich So long as you are prepared to sell ESR, I have no problem with your approach What I disapprove of is the part that you wrote “the club has got its own cards it can play, and should be absolutely ruthless in getting the right deal for the club” Does that mean not playing him to teach him a lesson because that will be cutting off our noses to spite the face. His value will plummet and then we will be the losers. If we can’t come close to whatever he’s asking for then we may have to sell… Read more »
Rich
“And we should let Smith-Rowe know that if we’re playing him and educating him, then he needs to be invested into the project, ”
Is it non negotiable?
R ””””’Justifying overpaying young players before they’ve proved anything”””””’ What about Dortmund? Sold Sancho for £85 million Have £200 million from potential sales is in Haaland and Bellingham ( even have our £50 million for PEA) They clearly know what they are doing. And what they don’t do is allow their managers to spend whimsically on the likes of: £72 million on Pepe £50 million on Partey £55 million on B. White. and offer the likes of William , 3 year contract on £200k a week. and give the likes of Runarsson 5 year contracts , Soares 4 year contracts… Read more »
If villa are potential relegation fodder without grealish what are we? You could argue as it stands martinez, cash, mings/konza, luiz, mcginn, grealish, buendia and Watkins would get in our starting lineup
Last season, I was dismayed just like Pierre at the notion that ESR was less than Odegaard. For all I saw of Ode, he’s as slow as molasses, is reluctant to shoot and is too one footed to be considered as élite in that central midfield slot. His dribbling isn’t even that great. I wasn’t comfortable that he was mollycoddled but when ESR scored his first goal, Arteta would male remarks that can easily come across as dismissive. I don’t like the fact that ESR was played away frim his strengths to accommodate Ode who didn’t exactly pulling up trees..… Read more »
Bigper
“If villa are potential relegation fodder without grealish what are we? You could argue as it stands martinez, cash, mings/konza, luiz, mcginn, grealish, buendia and Watkins would get in our starting lineup”
Tell that to Pedro who believes there’s no footballing reason why ESR will want to join Villa
Villa have more players at the Euros and Copa America than Arsenal; international class players
but don’t tell that to Pedro.
Yeah but look at Hudson Odi (think that’s how you spell it) at Chelsea. Went on ridiculous wages because of potential and hasn’t really justified wage. So you have to be careful but then Arsenal did spunk 200k a week on Willan
________leno—
White__Saliba__Gab__Kt
__TP__Aouar__ESR
Pepe___Martinelli____Saka
team youth, would get us top 8 easy
bar old man TP
SF
So glad I’m spending a lot of money on a ST, travel costs etc so I can look forward to a top 8 finish.
When did the ambition of Arsenal fans move to top 8 finishes?
Marc, Im saying at a min. for all the top 8 lovers out there.
Im not, I want to win it all.
top 4 please at least!
Add in Maddison, Camavinga and other hot pieces and we can do it!
Enjoy your ST, ill be wearing the latest VR goggles in the box seats mate. or front row.
You can sit next to stinky…
lol
SF
Actually the people I sit round – or at least used to who knows who’ll will and won’t be back – are all pretty decent people.
I’m just wondering when the first wave of excuses will start.
The first wave started about a year ago, when Arteta took over.
Some said he was a special type of sauce… despite others saying he is not. Some said he was generational and we said not he is not.
Some said he was a great at defense- he was not really…
some said he failed bc he did not pick his own players- that they were emery left overs. He brought in willian, soares, mari, ode, all players pulling up trees
The first wave is gone. We are on the third or 4th stage wave