Number cruncher sent by the footballing gods, Adam Rae Voge (@AdamVoge), has dropped in with ANOTHER brilliant piece. Today, he’s focused on the potential signing of James Maddison.
For all the talk of potential midfield, centre-back, and right-back additions at Arsenal this summer, there really hasn’t been talk about the incoming attacking midfielder. Why? It’s always been Martin Odegaard.
Until now.
With Odegaard being pretty consistently linked with a return to Spain, Arsenal fans got their first glimpse of a new creator this week, as reports linked the club to Leicester City creator extraordinaire James Maddison.
Opinions about the potential 70-million-Euro man abound, but just how good is he? Would he be an upgrade over Odegaard? I turned to the data to compare Maddison to some of the world’s greatest creators. Here’s what I found.
Editorial note: I know several of these names are not true Number 10s. But all percentile ranks are compared to all attacking midfielders, not just those playing centrally. I’m trying to compare all creators here, so I’ve included some of the best 8s, as well as some notable attacking midfielders who play both centrally and on the wing.
Ball pressure
One thing I always heard about Martin Odegaard was how good he was at marshaling the Arsenal press. That’s something a good attacking midfielder should do, so I compared some of the biggest names in terms of pressures in the attacking third, successful pressures and ball recoveries. Surprisingly, Odegaard ranked last among the options detailed here.
Dani Olmo, Roberto Firmino, Kevin De Bruyne and Thomas Muller were among the best at pressuring and recovering the ball. Maddison? He was closer to the back of the pack than the front this past season, with largely average percentile ranks in each statistic. He did prove to be an above-average attacker at recovering the ball, ranking in the 66th percentile. Odegaard, for the record, ranked in the 32nd percentile in that category last year.
Maddison’s average rank in those 4 ball pressure statistics was 55th, putting him in the middle of all attacking midfielders. For reference, De Bruyne averaged a rank in the 84th percentile. Mason Mount was in the 80th.
Possession
Another quality of a top creator is the ability to carry the ball forward into the attack without turning it over. This is where someone like Leo Messi excels – last season he was literally in the 99th percentile in carries, progressive carries and carries into the final third, while ranking in the 95th percentile in miscontrols. That’s what an elite carrier and ball controller looks like.
So what of Maddison? As with his ball pressure, he struggled in this area. Last season, Maddison ranked in the 81st percentile among attackers in carries, but was otherwise average or worse in five other ball security statistics. One particular area of weakness: he carried the ball into the penalty area only rarely, ranking in the 31st percentile.
Maddison’s ranks in these seven statistics averaged out to the 51st percentile, again putting him in dead-average territory as a ball carrier. For reference, Bukayo Saka would have been in the 54th percentile, Emile Smith Rowe the 45th percentile, and Martin Odegaard was in the 61st. Phil Foden ranked in the 76th percentile, with Jack Grealish in the 74th.
That’s less than inspiring for an attack that struggles at time to get up the pitch.
Passing and creation
And of course, the skill that matters most – passing and chance creation. This is thankfully one area where Maddison continued to flash his skill in 2020-2021, ranking in the 95th percentile in both progressive passing and shot-creating actions. Maddison’s stats as a passer placed him in the 81st percentile across nine passing and creation statistics this past season, just below Bruno Fernandes and Mason Mount, who were both in the 83rd percentile, and a little further behind Jack Grealish, in the 85th. Passing and creation are a particular strength of Odegaard’s, and this past year he placed in the 80th percentile, ahead of names like Phil Foden and Thomas Muller.
The big picture
So what does this all say about James Maddison? I’ll say this: According to the data, Maddison was above average among attacking midfielders this past season. When you combine all the statistics mentioned here, Maddison’s average rank was in the 63rd percentile. That’s nowhere near Leo Messi, (81st percentile), of course, but it would be an improvement over Odegaard, right?
Well, no. Martin Odegaard was just ahead of Maddison this past season, in the 64th percentile. But that doesn’t fit the narrative of a 70-million-Euro midfielder, does it? Something just doesn’t feel right here.
The twist
I won’t blame you if you don’t know the ins and outs of Leicester City’s injury history. I certainly don’t. But toward the end of this past season, Maddison the better part of a month with a hip injury. Leicester won three in that stretch without Maddison, lost two (including to Arsenal), and drew against Burnley. The creator returned as a substitute in an April 3 loss to Man City, didn’t see the pitch in a loss to West Ham, and finally made his return to the lineup in an April 22 thrashing of West Brom. Maddison played well against West Brom, but struggled for the rest of the season, frequently getting subbed off, and finishing only the April 30 match with Southampton, a 1-1 draw. Leicester finished the season winning only five of ten with Maddison playing, with four losses.
Is it possible that hip injury impaired Maddison’s form? He had scored in the February 21 win over Aston Villa, the same game in which he was injured. Prior to that, he had a goal and three assists in five games, and just before that scored six goals during a torrid eight-game run in December and January.
Just to be safe, I decided to see where the James Maddison of 2019-2020 would rank in these categories. Here’s what I found:
Ball Pressure
Maddison was quite a lot better at pressuring the ball in 19-20. His successful pressures would have put him in the 79th percentile this year, and recoveries would have been in the 74th. His aggregate rank was 11 spots better, in the 66th percentile.
Possession
Another area where Maddison really fell off this season. Maddison’s carries from the 2019-20 season would have put him in the 92nd percentile this year. His control over the ball was much better, too: He would have ranked in the 75th percentile in miscontrols and 65th in dispossessions, instead of 51st and 53rd, respectively. His aggregate rank would have bumped up into the 66th percentile, just ahead of Martin Odegaard.
Maddison was outstanding as a creator and passer in both 2019-20 and 2020-21, and that’s one are where he actually improved a bit year-over-year.
The big picture, take two
Taking the entire picture into consideration, the James Maddison of 2019-2020 is on a similar level to Bruno Fernandes or Bernardo Silva. That’s certainly less underwhelming, and maybe even reason to get excited about a potential transfer.
So why did Maddison’s numbers dip this season, and which version of the player will show up this year? Mikel Arteta and Edu seem ready to put their money where on the elite version of the Leicester playmaker – I hope they’re right.
Give @AdamVoge a follow and tell him you loved his piece.
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Funnily enough if Arteta signs players that the fans don’t get excited about that may be a good sign. Maybe one thrown in but not every signing. One of the problems at the club has been no overall strategic plan in buying players. They have bought players just for the moment to placate the fans. Yes even with Willian there were fans that were happy enough at time of signing because he was a big name despite being an oldie as well as the doubters on that one. Pepe was brought as a sign that the club could still throw… Read more »
Lukaku, Salah and De Bruyne all let go by Chelsea.
Mental really even if it could be partially justified at the time with Diego Costa, Hazard, Oscar, Fabregas, Schurrle, etc.
In the short-term it won them a PL title but boy did they fuck up long-term there.
De Bruyne is genuinely world class.
To throw in players such as Sterling and Mahrez and put them in the same bracket as De Bruyne is an insult to De Bruyne.
“KDB obviously the best current midfielder in the world? Hard to argue for anyone else honestly”
He has to be one of the top 3 footballers in the world currently.
Kante, KDB, {someone else]
Gbat
I’m not undervaluing out players – I’d keep him.
Everyone else know’s how clueless Arteta and Edu are.
Avi
Yep, for me. By a distance.
Next best is debatable, my vote goes to Kimmich.
Thats what World Class playmaking looks like. Take a bow KDB
Wow… Denmark has come close twice now.. That header looked in… until it wasn’t Courtois looked worried.
De Bruyne can stand out in poorer teams compared to other teams. The volume he goes thru is amazing Would take Pogba and young Modric over him in tournament settings. Pogba has had better CL performances and int’l showings imo.
Next best is debatable, my vote goes to Kimmich.
Kante will have a word
Been impressed with Denmark, very hard done by to lose this but ultimately world class matchwinners in KDB and Lukaku have turned this one on its head.
It is why I would give France a significant edge over Italy, much more world class talent and matchwinners.
Ishola “Even if I don’t rate Arteta’s footballing philosophy as seen so far if he gets players in specifically tailored to his own footballing ideas rather than what is going to please the Arsenal fans then this is the right idea.” Yep. We have to remember that for a number of years our recruitment has been pretty poor. We all know I didn’t think Arteta was the right fit because unlike a lot of people I thought Arsenal was in a real mess player-wise. The squad was unbalanced and we had a lack of quality. When I looked at the… Read more »
What a hard tournament for Denmark. Losing their best player and then falling just short when on the brink of something special
I hate Manchester…. But BRuno Fernandez is pretty good midfielder. has to be in the top 3 or 4.
Like I said, it is up for debate.
Could throw any of Kante, Gundogan, Kimmich in there.
“We have to remember that for a number of years our recruitment has been pretty poor“
Are you sure? Dissenter was on here making a fuss about us aiming for guys like White and Maddison because we’d fired our scouts.
Pity Edu and Arteta have interrupted our scorching hot streak in the transfer market, we were flying until this summer.
Lukaku moves the needle forward
White/Maddison wont.
Fact.
Midwest
You mean Bruno PENnadez
Yeah Fernandes is brilliant but he has scored 21 of his 40 Man United goals from pens.
That is laughable and pretty much unheard of.
Avi… yeah that’s the one… 😀
Partey not elite?
Midwest
I love Bruno. Like others said, he’s more of a final third/second striker. The commentators give him more praise than he deserves. Has end product, but he goes missing in most big matches for Man Utd because he can’t control tempo and is not physically gifted enough like other attackers to make difference 1v1. Way too much “he took game by scruff of the neck” and “he’s the new Cantona” nonsense from PL media who are obsessed with hyperbole
Well Denmark didn’t give up… at least.. but up against too many top players.
How many people were allowed to go to the game? The stadium looks so full.
Dream _ yes I guess it depends on how you define midfielder.. Lots of people classify Mueller as a midfielder… for me he is second striker as well.
AFC Forever “He doesn’t get any credit for any of that, which is really poor but I guess it’s one of those inconvenient facts people choose to ignore” He didn’t get high praise for that because people with a bit of common sense could see the tactic he won winning the FA Cup just by simply putting men behind the ball and defending deep especially evident against Machester City were not sustainable over the longer term. He got praise for the FA Cup win for doing what he thought necessary for that certain time period in that competition but it… Read more »
We
“Yeah Fernandes is brilliant but he has scored 21 of his 40 Man United goals from pens”
If that’s true that says several things.
how long ago was gattusso headbutting spuds asst coaches? not thatlong
This whole White/Maddison deal is a little like a Liverpool signing a few years back when they were laughed at for signing Mane and Van Dijk. If the team needs a player and theres one that fits the profile its probably better to overspend on it.
Think we’re actively negotiating for those 2,Arteta will have nowhere to hide if he isn’t in contention by C.mas honestly
Looking forward to the next match… see the Dutch play again.. I hope it’s as open as the last one. Plenty of goals.
Comparing White to Southampton Van Dijk is one of the bolder takes on here of late.
Did I just read Oscar De la Hoya is going to fight again? sheeesh… is their a senior citizens boxing tour now? hahaha
Ishola “He didn’t get high praise for that because ‘people with a bit of common sense’ could see the tactic he won winning the FA Cup just by simply putting men behind the ball and defending deep especially evident against Machester City.” An insult, nice debating. I was trying to be all nice and polite too, not sure I deserved to be told I don’t have any common sense. However, I bow to your superior football knowledge. Better pick the phone up and let Daniel Levy know, they’ve been trying 30 years to win a trophy, he might get you… Read more »
Comparison obviously stems from the potential in White having a similar influence to the arsenal defense, i mean his ball playing skills is a level above anything at the club.
Watching Holding’s attempt at passing a football is a tough watch
AFC you’re very sensitive for a bloke that goes around freely calling people you disagree with clowns and doomers.
You were laying it on thick with Dissenter before and now are pulling that old trick on Ishola that you tried on me before with the faux offence taken at an innocuous comment.
AFC Forever
I didn’t think you would be one of those to feel that Arteta had truly arrived with that FA Cup win and the way he won it so no offense to you.
In your case may have been heart ruling the head in that certain instance.
AFC
Man up for fuck sake
We need defenders that are good on the ball; white is one of the best. Arteta probably thinks he can improve white defensively. He’s fooled fans into thinking holdings a good defender so there is hope.
Avi
Yeah Holding isn’t up to it unfortunately. We ought to sell really as Mari looks better and Gabriel has a lot of upside still but needs to cut out the mistakes and mature a bit.
Whenever I get frustrated … on here. I just call Marc a cunt.. 😀
Makes me feel better.
Hopefully, Pedro never takes that insult ability away from us.
Martinelli not going to Olympics, apparently
Weagle
Up for selling Holding too but the ramblings are that he’s seen as a leader and a big presence in the dressing room
Can’t see how we don’t sell one of the current CBs along with Macro though if White is truly coming.
If he sells Saliba I think there will be riots
Mid
Only after you’ve joined the queue.
Saliba is finished at Arsenal under Arteta.
Arsenal have 38 games next season
They do not require
White
Holding
Gabriel
Mary
Chambers & Saliba.
Surprised people aren’t losing their minds that Young signed for Villa and not us
CG
You just hope someone at the club has the sense to put a buy back clause in the deal so we can buy him back next summer when the new manager says “what feckin idiot sold Saliba?”
I’d be interested to know how much we could get for Holding, British premium and all! Solid pro but ceiling reached.
FFS I worked with Power BI analytic people all day … I come here to get away from work life and read people using the word cunt in it’s various forms, and of course all levels of personal insults between commentators. I don’t need my daily Pedro filled up with bar charts and Power Queries … hahahaha
SMupoetman
.”surprised people aren’t losing their minds that Young signed for Villa and not us”
FFS mate don’t remind Marc and his mates about that!!!! That’s another week of blog content getting prepared.
Saliba is 20, he’s not finished Smith-Rowe went to Germany then Huddersfield Abraham went to Bristol City, Swansea and Villa Zouma on loan to Stoke + Everton Mount to Derby + Vitesse Reece James at Wigan Christensen had 2 seasons with Gladbach, he’s just played for the winning team in a CL final Maguire was playing in league 1 for Sheffield United at 20 Van Dijk was a bit part player in the Dutch league at 20 Chelsea + City are buying some Brazilian lads this summer, and sending them straight out on loan Saliba taking another loan this summer… Read more »
Time for the Oranje boys. Belgium don’t look like they’ll go far. Thorgan Hazard looks like he’s been around for along time. Thankfully they’ve kept my Euros ACCA going quite brilliantly.
No Saliba taking another loan 3 years after he was signed for that amount would’ve stupid. What’s freaking wrong with some of you
AFC
I recall you once threw an apoplectic fit because Wenger Eagle wrote that you were ‘talking from both sides of your mouth”
Man up, or just put on your big boy pants.
You’re very thin-skinned for one that won’t hesitate to call a huge swathe of posters “perverts” for just wanting Saliba to get a decent opportunity.
Love ya but really…
Avi, I don’t think there will be riots if Saliba goes. Nobody has really seen him play. He’s a poster boy for the movement. I think he looks a decent prospect from the limited stuff I’ve seen. But Knowing how this place rocks, if he had a couple of bad games he’ll be getting the Xhaka treatment.
Calling for Saliba to go on loan again is just a bit cowardly
I only blame the Kroenkes at this point for being so distant from the club, they are easily the worst owners in world football.
Dissenter
You’re getting big and brave. I hope you’re not going to start the anal threats again. I’m happy to accept my place as a minority on this blog, a target, as long as I don’t get the hussy fits everyone I call out the repetitive BS
*hissy
Dissenter, are you aware how much debt the Glazers put on United when they bought the club and how much they take out of the club every year? They make the Kroenkes look benign!
Dissenter
Would you start Saliba first game of next season. Yes or No. How many centre backs should we have? We had 8 when he went on loan
AFC You should have noticed that I don’t get excited over incoming transfer links until something actually happens. I haven’t done my nut about Buendia like many on here. My only position on that front is I don’t think we have that much to spend and too many think Santa’s about to drop down the chimney. Where I do get pissed off is over Saliba – I have a really bad feeling and it’s backed up by Arteta’s previous behaviour. I have no issue with you chucking insults at me but I would prefer if you at least made them… Read more »
Most people can smell shit for what it is
Buying a 23 year old English defender with one decent season in the Championship [with Leeds] to replace Saliba, without giving him an opportunity to swim or sink, is just exactly that.
Bear in mind, that Saliba made the shortlist for team of the season in ligue un, within a few months of playing for Nice.
Yea think the gullible arsenal fans calling for him to be thrown in will exactly be the same drawing out the sword when he has the inevitable howlers and cost the team goals
Arteta not ready to hitch his future on such gamble is understandable considering he’s working on thin ice at the moment
Bob
No idea how the Glaziers got away with that.
Arsenal’s problems started with the stadium, the timing of that was so unlucky with the financial markets. At the same time the doping started.
Could be an interesting game this, Netherlands are my dark horse
“Would you start Saliba first game of next season. Yes or No. How many centre backs should we have?”
No I’d look to have Saliba as backup – Having Mari, Gabriel, Holding and Saliba should be enough for a season that will contain circa 40 – 41 matches. On top of that I fully expect us to keep Chambers so he could fill in as another CB in an emergency.
AFC Forever I seen some really interesting stats on Saliba His all around passing and ball progression are very good, around the 90 percentile average In the 1 v 1 he’s elite The rest of his defensive game is below average It’s no big deal, he’s just turned 20, he’s not meant to be the finished article He’ll develop more from playing, than he will being a bit part player at Arsenal, if he’s not ready Tie him down to a new 5yr deal, send him to a good Championship club who play out of the back, let him pick… Read more »
Would the world ene did we gave a young defender whom from all reports is quite the player a game against Brentford? How the fuck do we actually know how good he can be for us if we don’t freaking play the lad?
Anyways time to watch Dumfries, my favorite RB at the moment
AFC I would absolutely have Saliba in the mix [pool] to compete to start games in the league. None of our current central defenders are guaranteed starters, You all love to remind us that we signed an inexperienced manager who’s bound to make mistakes. How is it that you’re all tooled up to defend Arteta through a very glaring error he made with Saliba. Remember this was his first ever pre=season, a shortened preseason at that. He misjudged Saliba and selected Mustafi ahead of him. How do I know, few months after that Mustafi was out of the door. If… Read more »
Tie him down to a new 5yr deal, send him to a good Championship club who play out of the back, let him pick up 40+ games, iron out a few more creases, learn the language
Yup I’m sure the lad who’s not been given a crack at the club would jump at the prospect at signing a new 5 year contract! Jeez what is in the air tonight
Dissenter
Chelsea sent Mount to Holland, then o play for Derby in the Championship, he then needed 12-18 months to develop in the PL
Was that cowardly? Or just a sensible way to develop a very talented young player?
Walt
Arteta has allowed his ego and his pride to effect his decision making ( which is why he is and always will be unsuited to soccer management)
if White is to be purchased , it should only be occurring AFTER Saliba has been given a fair crack of the whip in training and on pre season tour.
Bati
Agree 100% and you just know it won’t be long before we have to sell Saliba because he’s a “problem” player.
Funny how so many players only become “problems” when Arteta is involved.
Honestly not comfortable throwing in Saliba to fave the likes of City and Chavs in the season opener
Could affect his confidence badly if he torn to pieces
Was Ben White even a standout at Brighton last season? Did you watch Brighton and go, …oh my, what a defender?
Was anyone pinning for Ben White, NO
Dunk is their best defender by a country mile. When Dunk is absent, they are like the Titanic going down.
A season in the Championship and the PL is a mile more experience than Saliba has, nothing at all contentious about that statement about the pair.
Only point of contention is whether we should be buying a premium defender with the void in midfield as apparent as it is. But with those holes plugged I’ve no issue with us buying a premium CB.
Yep.. I think we should at least give Saliba a full preseason chance and then, if he is good enough.. Gabs and Saliba are backup to Mari and Holding… if Arteta wants to replace Holding with Ben White then fine.. but serious amount of cash to sink into the CB position when our midfield is a train-wreck and we struggle to score goals.
Marc
You’re letting your dislike for Arteta cloud your objectivism on Saliba
Chill out mate, I mean it could have been worse with us hiring Gatusso. Just look at the Spuds, total shambles
Marc, so it’s a no to Arteta from you? Just checking…
Marc, when the fuck did I insult you? You need to man up mate. You know I will agree with you that there is no point crying or having fits about unknowns. That includes Saliba. The lad was trying to recover from a broken foot but Covid shut the French season down early. We had 8 centre backs due to incompetence. Saliba had previous played 16 & 12 games for St Etienne, which is hardly anything to hang super stardom on. Like mist fans, Who be seen little of him although he looks to be a decent prospect. I would… Read more »
Rich
How old was Mount when he returned from Derby and started to be integrated into the Chelsea first team?
*like most fans we have seen little of him.
AFC
You accused me of losing my shit over Arsenal missing out on signings – I haven’t done that.
Bob
To be honest I’m in 2 minds.
Penalty? I missed it.
Oranje to a good start. My man Dumfries winning it
Avi
That’s why we can’t laugh too much at the Spud’s right now . We’ll be looking for a new manager in about 6 months and will have no money either.
Rich “Was that cowardly? Or just a sensible way to develop a very talented young player?” Eh, I don’t know what you’re talking about man Mount got his chance in the league and was not immediately convincing. Mount is a Chelsea academy player on a long term contract…Saliba’s contract has used up 25% of his contract already. Saliba hasn’t had a whiff of an opportunity at Arsenal, that’s the basis of the arguments. Let him sink or swim. If he’s not good enough, then send him on loan. What’s the basis of you wanting him out loan by the way?… Read more »
Mid
Who the fuck let you take a pen?
Clubs buy young players, loan them out for a few seasons, before either flipping them for a profit, or bringing them into the fold, all the time It’s no different doing this with a young player you sign, or with a talented academy player There’s countless examples of clubs using this path to beat the market You sign Saliba for €30 million at 18, so you don’t have to pay £60 million at 22 You don’t develop a young centre half yourself, because it’ll cost you points, and throwing young players at a high level before they’re ready, causes more… Read more »
Mid
“Yep.. I think we should at least give Saliba a full preseason chance and then, if he is good enough.. Gabs and Saliba are backup to Mari and Holding”
I think that is fair. The lad is being asked to make a huge step up to the PL with very limited experience & it’s a ridiculous expectation. It’s actually unfair on here. Train with the first team squad & see how it goes
Marc-
I’m rock solid with PK’s .. I aim for the Keepers nuts straight down the middle and see how much of a man they are.
Marc, no I didn’t.
Dissenter
Mount went to Holland then the Championship
He’s only started coming into his own and finding real consistency this season, he’s almost 23
Saliba is 20, his passing stats are very good, his all around defensive stats are well below average
Get in that Dumfries lad to replace Bellerin asap, what a player
Rich
“Having a meltdown over a 20yr old centre back is bonkers, absolutely berserk”
I find it beyond bizarre.
AFC
Earlier this evening.
“.”surprised people aren’t losing their minds that Young signed for Villa and not us”
FFS mate don’t remind Marc and his mates about that!!!! That’s another week of blog content getting prepared.”
Dissenter
I don’t know if Saliba is ready, his statistics suggest he isn’t, even if he’s elite in 1 v 1ns, and his passing is very good
I have no problem with him coming into the squad, but unless he’s going to play consistently, then he’s better off going out to play to iron out the creases in his game, rather than stagnating on our bench
It’s the same with Willock, we either make space and play him, or we loan him out again
He’s 22, he needs to play to develop,
Rich “ Having a meltdown over a 20yr old centre back is bonkers, absolutely berserk” Nice way to reframe The outage is about the club trying to sign a 23 year old Ben White with one season of good football in the championship ( with Leeds) without giving Saliba to prove himself. You keep using Mount as an example when the better example should be Tomori He had his go at Chelsea last season, they qualified for CL with him playing some games. This season he went on loan to Milan, did well and was sold for good money. That… Read more »
Marc, seriously? You are bigger than taking a quip refering to 10 years ago seriously. It was a joke. My god, deep down you’re a sensitive soul despite all the agitation.
Dissenter
The reason some of us are reacting badly is because Arteta already has a history of picking favourites over performance and only plays young players when forced to.