WHY ARSENAL WON'T SPEND £100M ON ALEXANDER ISAK

PREDICTING HOW ARSENAL WILL REBUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW WINDOWS

It’s quite hard to follow a 4,600-word essay on refereeing and the problems with Crouch End, so I want to start with an apology: Crouch End, I love you. It was nothing personal.

The whole point of the article yesterday was to highlight that:

1. Fan sentiment is incredibly important and is being taken for granted.

2. Fans aren’t stupid—they’ve been aware of the problems at PGMOL for decades.

3. This issue shouldn’t be brushed under the rug.

4. Real solutions need to be put forward so we’re not back here in a year complaining about the same things.

What surprises me most is that sports journalism isn’t really about investigative writing or putting forward ideas these days. There’s too much risk associated with that sort of approach because access is key. As a result, the game seems stuck in a rinse-and-repeat death loop. I haven’t read all the internet reactions, but so far, the narrative seems to be: "One bad egg, what about his feelings? Let’s move on."

I sincerely hope Arsenal aren’t thinking that way, and I pray the rest of the clubs in the league are working behind the scenes on a new approach. The very foundations of the game depend on the perception of fairness, which has been shaken this season by a number of issues—none more high-profile than the degradation of the PGMOL institution. David Coote is a symptom of what now appears to be a terminal illness within PGMOL. Let’s hope the death is quick and that a new idea can be implemented before any more damage is done to the Premier League brand.

So, what’s next for the LONG READ section of the blog? I’m working on a Sporting Director piece to give you a lay of the land and where I’d put my chips. Stay tuned. Also, don’t forget to subscribe if you haven’t already.

Let’s talk a little bit about transfers. Arsenal are likely to move on at least one number 6 next summer. Talk of Thomas Partey getting a new deal seems extremely fanciful. I suspect his agents are talking to the club, but this feels reminiscent of when Mustafi thought he was getting a new deal. There’s no way we’re going back in for Thomas unless the financial demands are greatly reduced—and there’s no reason he should expect less, considering he’s playing outrageously well and will likely attract a bigger market as a free agent in June.

The hottest name on the #6 market is Zubimendi. Don’t talk to me about other names. He’s the only one who feels like a guaranteed level-raiser. At 25 years old, he possesses all the gifts of a Spaniard and goes beyond being your typical Arteta duel monster. He’s far more Partey than Rice in his style. We need some sauce - and not the HP stuff in the greasy spoon. I want sauce that is served in a little bowl with a tiny spoon. That’s Zubi.

Nothing is ever straightforward with transfers, but the player turned down Liverpool last year—or the deal fell through. One suspects Real Sociedad’s owner didn’t want to lose the entire foundation of his midfield in one summer. However, Zubimendi will likely leave next year. While rumors suggest City want a 6 this January, I have my doubts:

1) Any player would hesitate to move there until the dust settles on Pep Guardiola’s situation and the outcome of their legal case.

2) Real Sociedad wouldn’t stop him moving to Liverpool in the summer only to let him leave midseason when they’re 8th in the league and 6 points off the top 4.

Zubimendi feels like a summer move, and there’s no reason to think Arsenal wouldn’t be a prime destination for him. We’ll have space with Partey and Jorginho likely exiting, and we’ll have the money because his release clause is low. Arsenal might also be the best option if City are out of the picture.

Why would Zubimendi choose Arsenal? Liverpool will have just lost their three best players and will be in a deep rebuild. Arsenal, on the other hand, will be peaking over the next two seasons with far greater stability. He’d get to work under a Basque manager, reunite with Mikel Merino, and see how Martin Ødegaard’s career flourished after moving from Real Sociedad to Arsenal. Plus, a young man in his mid-twenties who can enjoy some of London’s finest establishments isn’t going to choose Liverpool. Meat pie and mash can’t compete with what London has to offer.

I want to see this transfer happen. This is one of those times where I’ll say, as a writer with no influence on outcomes: NO EXCUSES.

Another player who seems to be on the market is Alexander Isak at Newcastle. The Swede was an Arsenal target back in the day. He had a breakout season of epic proportions, then slumped hard the next year, so we passed. He moved to Newcastle and has since blown up, scoring 40 goals in 78 appearances. He has outrageous pace, can conjure magic out of nothing, and oozes Thierry Henry vibes.

So, why would Newcastle sell? Well, rumors suggest that Saudi Arabia is dialing back some of its overseas investments, and Newcastle might take a financial hit. They’re also up against tight PSR regulations, limiting their ability to spend. There’s chatter that Isak’s camp is leaking information that he won’t sign a new deal, inviting bids from the best clubs in the league.

Why do I think the "ITK" rumors about him being Arsenal’s number-one target are wrong? Because I don’t think Arsenal would shift from wanting a £45m, 20-year-old Sesko last summer to pursuing a £100m Isak next summer. A £100m striker doesn’t feel like a priority for Arsenal right now. Even if it were, I doubt we’d put that kind of money down on a player who has never played more than 2,300 minutes in a Premier League season (worth noting that a chunk of Declan Rice’s value is robustness Isak doesn’t have). I’m also unsure Isak fits the profile of striker Arteta covets in his system. Newcastle’s style of play suits Isak’s skill set because they thrive in transition. Arsenal, by contrast, face low-blocks and mid-blocks as teams plan to neutralize our tools.

Arsenal might look at Isak and conclude he lacks the monster strength needed in our system. He’s defensively light and doesn’t meet Arteta’s demands aerially in terms of duel winning and box threat (he’s scored just 3 headers for Newcastle).

This is Kai’s defensive profile:

This is Isak’s:

If I can see with my own eyes, Isak isn’t the shape of striker Mikel looks at, and the data qualifies it - what do you think Arsenal’s suped-up tools are telling him? That doesn’t mean he’s not a wonderful player to watch - I just tend to think that coaches at the very highest level look beyond things that fans covet. If we were going to spend mega money on a striker like that, Victor Oshimen does far more Arteta things than Isak.

For reference, so you don’t have to race out and check, this is where Sesko is defensively:

He’s a monster—robust, a bully, and a relentless workhorse. He’s also having another strong season, with 7 goals and 3 assists in 15 games (3 of those goals coming in the Champions League).

My suggestion here is that if someone is telling you Isak is our number one target this summer, it might be wise not to invest too much emotional energy in that idea.

This is the point in the blog where I remind you that scoring goals hasn’t been our problem over the past two seasons. We’ve broken our own Premier League record for goals scored in consecutive campaigns. Our issue, in my humble opinion, has been going into the season short on depth and making a panic buy on the right side of midfield that hasn’t worked out yet.

Arsenal will likely make significant upgrades over the next three transfer windows as they seek to improve, become more robust, and ensure they’re less exposed when players like Martin Ødegaard are injured. When you realise how much work there is to do, it also adds another layer of doubt to the idea we’re going to drop £100m on one player again.

The backup to Bukayo Saka might be solved next summer, with Leroy Sané potentially arriving on a free transfer. That would give us Champions League-level coverage, explosive brilliance, and the kind of experience we currently lack.

I suspect there might also be a changing of the guard on the left side next summer. I think Trossard could be sold, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the club overinvests in competition for Martinelli. We’d all love to sign Haaland as a number 9, but I think we’ll revisit Sesko to allocate funds toward a top-class #6 and possibly a creative option to compete with Ødegaard.

Eze has been frequently mooted—I don’t care if it’s him, but it’s clear that when Ødegaard is out, we struggle to utilize our wide players effectively, and breaking through defensive blocks doesn’t come as easily.

We also need to be realistic about player exits. Arsenal will need to find new homes for Zinchenko, Jesus, Kiwior, Vieira, Reiss Nelson, Kieran Tierney, and Tomiyasu.

There’s not much wrong with our ceiling players, but the club has done well to raise the floor. That said, there’s still work to be done, as the quality dip when certain players leave the starting XI is noticeable.

This is how you build squads with finite resources. Each window is a chance to learn, upgrade, and inch closer to the promised land of winning trophies. Even when you’re there, the job of evolving never stops. Hot players cool down, new weaknesses emerge, and only the very best clubs stay ahead of those trends.

I’m excited about where Arsenal are right now. If we can have a strong December and cut Liverpool’s lead to 4-5 points heading into January, we’ll be in a great position to challenge for the league when it matters. Remember what Matt Kandela said on the pod last season? "Finishing strong is all that matters." That’s where my head is at now. Can Arteta get a post-Dubai tune out of the team without needing to jump on a plane?

We’ll see… we’ll see. x

P.S. Little take from JC on the week that was.