SPURS CUP FINAL

Start of the week. What does this week contain? A quarter-final in the Champions League against the MIGHTY Bayern Munich. This is what football is all about, people. Being in the mixer for a massive competition, with the chance to avenge a very one-sided abusive relationship with a German institution.

I’m excited.

I spoke with top-tier German football expert Rafa Honigstein about the game and he was not particularly bullish about Bayern Munich’s chances given the shift in our form and the decline in their form. You will obviously go and listen to the podcast, but overall, the vibe is their team isn’t in a good place from a confidence perspective, the system isn’t really working, and there are questions of commitment from some of the players.

This game means a lot to any Arsenal fan old enough to remember the regular maulings from the German side. We have taken some painfully heavy defeats over the years because we’ve not been able to match their quality or tactics in the games that matter. For Arteta, this is a test of brand for him… are we a big club that does big club things? Beat Bayern and you communicate to the world that our club really is back.

The home leg is hugely important, taking a lead to Germany gives us a statistically significant chance of heading into the semi-finals where we’ll no doubt meet a Manchester City firing on all cylinders. I don’t like the idea of that game one bit. But it feels almost inevitable.

Back to the Premier League. That noise you hear is me choking on burnt humble pie I just took out of the oven after United did us an unlikely solid yesterday. The game was a fun one to watch because it lacked any sort of control or fairness. Liverpool should have been out of sight early on. Their big dogs flopped in front of the goal and United squeezed their way back into the game with an unlikely goal. To be honest, they should have taken the three points when Antony broke towards the end.

Klopp was furious after the game, he said if United play like that against us, they’ll get walloped and they will. Any attempt at reverse psychology is going to fall flat in Salford. United fans will be begging for Arsenal to win the league. If City win, that’s four in a row which is never-been-done-before territory and if Liverpool wins, they equal United’s league-winning haul. United will absolutely roll over for us.

That does lead me to something I posted yesterday that I’m going to reprint here.

Some Premier League game theory you aren’t thinking about – now Arsenal is top.

The top 2 countries in UEFA coefficients get an extra Champions League place this season. England trails Germany and Italy. Bundesliga is catchable. Unai Emery is flirting with 5th. The most important game for him over the next two weeks is Lille.

If Villa gets to the semi-finals of Europa and the English teams progress (bar West Ham), he doesn’t have to worry about chasing Spurs. 5th Champions League place all but assured for the Premier League.

In an odd turn of events, Spurs fans should be cheering us against Bayern, drop out a German side, and we are helping them. The issue here for Arsenal? If Spurs secure CL early, they aren’t bothering for Liverpool & City. We’re the last Cup final for them.

So two things here: If we win our next 4 Premier League games, I think we win the Premier League.

Spurs is the most concerning game. They have a 15-day break. It’s an away day. Ange does not want to give us the league title in their house. It will be the spiciest game of the season.

Bournemouth won’t be a problem.

United will roll over.

Everton will be safe and there’s no way they’re helping Klopp.

Our season is defined by the outcome of the Spurs game.

Win our next 4 and the league is ours. It’s that simple. What a massive 3 weeks we have ahead of us.

Ok, listen to Rafa. He’s excellent as ever.