EARNED CALMNESS AND HALF SZN TABLES
WE'RE EXPLAINING USING 2021 METHODOLOGY
How are y’all doing today? Good, I hope. I just “y’all’d” you, so you know I’m in high spirits heading into the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
Summer moved FAST. That said, I haven’t really had the chance to miss football because there’s been a never-ending sludge of games over the past two months. The calendar is quite rank these days; there’s definitely going to be some serious football fatigue at some point. I honestly don’t understand those who seem to engage in every game - especially international football.
Arsenal head into the weekend after what I’d rate as a 6 out of 10 transfer window, if I’m honest.
No explosive winger.
No left-sided 8.
No striker.
Very few sales taking us to the £120m summer I dreamed of.
Another defender.
I like the defender. I know we’ll get Mikel Merino over the line before the end of the month. I’m fully aware that we’ll have to sell some players if we want a forward player. But there’s no panic from me. Why? Because I believe in the power of the half-season table.
Arsenal won 16 of 18 games. We scored the most goals, conceded the fewest, and narrowly missed out on the Premier League title.
Compare that to the first 20 games in which we only won 12, scored 37, and conceded 20 goals.
Why did that happen? Well, we didn’t finish the prior season very well, but more importantly, Arteta had to evolve the squad with some heavy restructuring.
We exited Xhaka—a player who went on to become a German invincible.
We changed our keeper in September.
We added Kai—a player who was the animal equivalent of a kitten found in a sack under a bridge.
We integrated Declan Rice, saving him from Moyes-ball.
We struggled with injuries to Partey, Jesus, Zinchenko, and Tomiyasu.
We lost Jurrien Timber for the whole season on day one.
… and the key piece: Arteta evolved the system to keep up with Pep G.
This season, we don’t need to do those things. Arteta has a largely settled squad of about 18 or so players. He has a system that worked brilliantly in the second half of last season. The team is now fluent in this new system… and it produced a lot of goals and conceded very few.
The start of this season should flow like liquid magma. Not quite sure why magma was on my mind, but hopefully, that got you excited.
There is still some work to do with the squad. Arteta has once again been hesitant to sign forward players. We came close with Sesko before he opted to stay in Germany. I doubt we were ever going to entertain Neto at £65 million. But hey, maybe we’ll see a different option. If the very well-sourced Dean, aka AFCcamden, is right, cover for Saka is Ethan Nwaneri.
It’s pretty clear that Mikel has liked what he’s seen in preseason. He’s been waxing lyrical about Ethan and Myles, using lines like Wenger would to describe his inaction.
‘If these players had come from Argentina’
‘You hate them because they were not expensive’
Nwaneri looked powerful out wide, and we know he’s being mentored by Odegaard. Those who complain that we don’t give enough minutes to academy prospects are now going to have to pivot to complaining that we don’t sign enough 28-year-olds who would block their pathways.
My guess is Arsenal are pretty flexible on this front, but a lot will depend on whether they can find new homes for Eddie, Reiss, and Aaron this window. I’ve written ad nauseam that a lot of our incomings are going to be based on what we can sell. My hope was £100 million in sales. We’re not there yet, and we might not get there until late in the window. The club has spent a lot over the past four years—at some point, you have to work with what you have or actually shift some bodies. Liverpool worked that way, Chelsea used to, and City do a great job selling.
Arsenal need to get better at that, but I’m very calm about where we are, squad-wise, regardless.
We have the perfect defensive group. Left-backs can play on the right, right-backs can play on the left, and we have a great selection of center-back options.
Arsenal will sign Merino in the coming weeks, which gives us two options at left 8. Nwaneri can cover Odegaard, and we have three 6s. I said on my podcast that Fabio Vieira could be the dark horse of the season (I’ve said it three seasons running now), but at this rate, it’s hard to see how he won’t be sold for a disappointingly low fee. His outlook is about as rosy as Kiwior’s.
Our forward line required less juice over the years because Arteta inherited some really good players who have done the job. You can dream of a Leroy Sané or a Dusan Vlahović, but look at what we do have: a team that can outscore Manchester City by three goals playing one less game. That’d be a 118-goal season if we kept up that form for a full season. So, are goals really the issue with this squad?
I don’t think so… The issue with this squad is pairing two good halves of a season together to win the Premier League.
Okay, so heading into the Premier League season, I want to clarify the package for memberships so you know what you’re getting this season.
We have two options:
Patreon – All Audio (£5/month)
• 38 Premier League Live On The Whistle Podcasts (early bird)
• 38 Exclusive Before the Whistle Podcasts
• Every cup game will be exclusive
• 39 Exclusive Premier League Ratings
• All content comes with a video and an audio file (with a private link)
• Access to The Arsenal Opinion Discord
Le Grove – Audio Plus Premium Writing (£7/month)
• 12 pieces of exclusive writing per month
• Access to The Arsenal Opinion Discord
• 38 Premier League Live On The Whistle Podcasts (early bird)
• 38 Exclusive Before the Whistle Podcasts
• Every cup game podcast will be exclusive
• 39 Exclusive Premier League Ratings
• All content comes with a video and an audio file (with a private link)
I’ve written this many times, but supporting the writing after 16 years of not asking for anything is about giving me the breathing room to justify the time I put into the site and the podcasts. If you can support it, amazing—you are the best. If you can’t, for whatever reason, all you need to do is drop me an email, a DM, or a Substack DM, and I’ll sort you out with no questions asked.
So, here we are, heading into our 17th year of being internet best friends. I’m going to keep pace with the writing this season, continue to bang out the podcasts, and maybe, just maybe, we’ll have a very exclusive live show for you at some point before the end of the year in London.
Have a good one, and check out our season predictions pod—it’s open for everyone.
No doubt the team look very strong.
15/8 is the average betting for an arsenal PL win.
Third favourites are Liverpool but the odds widen to 7/1.
Most people think it'll be a straight fight between us and city.
One thing I don't think Pedro touched on is the fact that last season city, although ruthless and professional at the end, weren't really that great - certainly not as good as in previous seasons.
I think they missed players like gundogan.
This season city have to deal with their legal issues and the possible doomsday scenario of Pep leaving at the end.
It's good for arsenal.
Blog for me. Not really interested in podcasts.