'DEEPENING THE TRUSTPOOL' TRANSFER STRATEGY

HOW ARSENAL WILL MOVE THIS SUMMER

There are a lot of player names being floated about in the Arsenal transfer ether right now.

Things you need to understand about rumours:

• Big influencers are pay-to-play these days - just because a big name has linked Arsenal, doesn’t mean it’s come from the club. Could be an agent, the other club, or it could be a rumour put out to deflect

• Arteta probably isn’t totally locked on with what he needs right now, so the idea there’s one person with all the answers is mythical

• The club will have a plan a, plan b, and a plan c. Again, no one can know who is going to land because there are so many different stakeholders in a deal. Zinchenko and Jesus both plan b options.

What will the transfer approach be this summer that we can be pretty sure of?

Deepening The Trust Pool

Yes, I just invested an averagely pithy line to explain where I think it’s going this summer, but it’ll not be far from the truth.

We don’t have any major issues to solve. We are a winning machine these days. We have the best attack, the best defence, a top 2 system, and it can cope with the Champions League.

What do we lack?

Manchester City levels of experience.

They are better in the margins.

They are better at run-ins.

They can manage the load better.

They have more options with numbers - and more options with players that can do more things.

Their core squad of players that start games is older than ours - but the key difference for them is they have a deeper squad of trusted names. They can rely on 22 players to do the job, Arsenal is more like 16.

That’s why this summer will be about moving towards Deepening The Trust Pool.

Arteta will look to shift on 7 or so players who aren’t trusted and bring in at least three players he really does love and can use.

We don’t have a back-up 9 that suits the system / can score goals.

Bukayo Saka doesn’t have a back-up

Martin Odegaard is the only player in that role at the club

Big Gabby doesn’t have a like for like - and I’m afraid it’s not Kiwior longterm

Players that lack trust:

• Emile

• Eddie

• Jesus (availability more than talent)

• Reiss

• Cedric

• Sambi

• Tavares

• Ramsdale

• Big Mo

These are players that Arteta would rather find different ideas for - Jesus was our OG #9, now he can’t displace Kai.

Eddie was our back-up #9, now he barely gets minutes.

Smith Rowe is more likely to be found in a kebab house than the starting 11.

Manchester City has cover for all their major positions - so they never miss a beat. One of the things that has been overlooked this season is the lack of injuries to major players. Our core has been rock solid. Raya, Rice, Saliba, Gabriel, Kai and Saka have been good all season. If that changes next year, we’re in trouble.

I want to refine something I wrote on Twitter last night.

There is a basic dynamic you have to understand when considering Arsenal transfer rumours this summer. Arteta has done the PL coaching internship. He took kids and turned them into monsters over 3.5 yrs.

His main objective now is winning something massive and winning it fast. He's not a project manager now. 18-year-olds don't get him there, especially in physically demanding positions. He'll want readymade unless he's signing players as long-term back-ups.

Hato was appealing when he was out of contract, now he's tied to Ajax until 2028, he's going to be Chelsea expensive. He's not ready for the EPL. The idea he'd give up first team football at Ajax to be an Arsenal back-up while he's developing is also ridiculous... he's too talented for that. See-Saliba-out-on-3-loans for how Arteta would feel about that. Chelsea is a great case study for why you don't load up on the hot-young-thing-with-fancy-youtube-comps. Kids need a lot of coaching. Very young kids need loans (Saliba).

The EPL is brutal, too many kids will put you outside the top 4. The objective this summer will be to find technical miracles from Europe between 21-23 (Timber) - or players that need slight tweaks from a coaching perspective that are UK-based (Havertz/Rice).

Arteta needs to finish out the squad - he'll still target young players, but they'll have experience so they can integrate fast. If he gets that right, we're winning the league next season.

Whilst not totally off - what I missed here is that signing ready-mades was probably a bit too emphatic. He’ll sign players who are trustworthy for the system due to the club they play for (Brighton players arrive at Arsenal intelligent), profile, or experience.

An example could be the striker position:

What we know: Kai Havertz is tracking to 20-goal-a-season striker levels in 2024. The need for goals up front isn’t what it was. Andrew at Arseblog has insisted we’re going for a project striker, that’ll be right, and we’ll sign a player that is more trusted in the system. Evan Ferguson has the profile we’re looking for, he has been coached the past 5 years in JdP fundamentals, and he has already shown he can cut it in the league. He’s made 65 appearances for Brighton. That’s massive for a striker who is barely 20. He has a very high ceiling and has shown he cuts it physically, and his technical abilities and game intelligence are astonishing. There’s more to his falling out with Brighton than meets the eye - if he was at Arsenal now, would he be getting more minutes than Jesus and Eddie? I think so.

Benjamin Sesko is 20 years old, but he has a profile Arteta has looked at for the past 3 years in the market. 6 ft 4, relentless work ethic, speed, the ability to drop deep, dangerous in the box, and high potential in front of goal. Would he have got more minutes than Eddie this season? Yes. He has a profile worth investing in and he’s already shown he can be a menace against teams like Madrid. He’s already dropped 140 professional appearances, he has 60 goals to his name, he could reach very, very high levels.

In defence, we’re being heavily linked with Hato. He’s a top player, can play right back or left back, he’s like a junior version of Jurrien Timber. But he’s 18, and I’m not sure we’re crying out for a teenager with a slight frame in that position right now unless we sell. Remember, Arteta sent Saliba out on loan three times and stated over and over that it’s really hard to break into defence as a teenager. Hato was majorly appealing when his contract was up… he’s re-signed with Ajax and will now be Lisandro Martinez levels of cost. Could we do it? Of course. But does he get us to a better squad NOW. If the answer is no, I don’t think we’ll do it. An 18-year-old should be trying to get as many minutes under their belt as possible - I don’t see how he gets that at Arsenal unless we loan him more. He doesn’t replace Ben White (who never gets injured) or a whole host of expensively assembled left-backs (Timber probably plays left back next season). There’s no point in signing development backup 18-year-olds unless you are stockpiling.

It’s the same in the wide position. There’s a player called Estevao who I wrote about the other week. The Brazilian football nerds think he’s the new Messi. He was unlucky to miss out on the Brazil squad. Arsenal should be looking at him - but can he be a trusted player next season? Probably not. He’s a long-term project because he has to bulk up, acclimate, and get minutes in a league 10x faster and more physically. If you offered Arteta Pedro Neto or Messinho, who is he going for? Probably the player that represents the least risk to his squad next season for the same price. Not someone that’ll need 2 loans to get up and running.

Arteta will want to de-risk his signings as much as possible. You don’t do that with very young players unless they come from the Premier League.

The second thing Arteta will be looking for is players who are tactically flexible and multi-positioned. Look at what Manchester City did last summer. They had 4 centre-backs and added a 5th in Gvardiol - because he can also play as a left back. City can spend £100m to do that. Look what he’s offering the team now. He scored the opener against Fulham and he’s stepped up when it counts.

Don’t be surprised to see Arsenal do something like that this summer if they can get good money for Kiwior. If the club can upgrade to a centre-back that has outrageous power and aggression, plus the ability to play left-back, I think that’s where they’ll go. The Polish defender had a good backend of the season, but it’s clear there are physical limitations and he’s been exposed a number of times for a lack of pace. Good, not great. If an Italian club comes in with a big number, I think we might look at a Diomande-type player.

I think the key players we’ll be looking at this summer will be an explosive winger like Neto, a powerhouse striker with a high ceiling, and a number 6 if we move Thomas Partey on for a fee that works for the club. The player likes London. I’m not sure there are too many who want to risk signing a player who is a crock, so I’m not holding out much hope here. But imagine adding a player like Bruno to our squad? A deeply sexy thought.

I expect Arsenal to sell £140m worth of talent this summer and reinvest the bulk of it in players who can become trusted players right away or at least get there in 6 months. Chelsea did the opposite. They signed every hot player Twitter told them to sign. They have been midtable all season as a result. But… if they miss out on Europe this season, they could be very good by January 2025 because those high-potential kids turn into mature young players. Chelsea could go from terrible to very good in the blink of an eye.

Arsenal already did that - that’s why I don’t think this window will look very Chelsea. It’ll look more like a typical City window. Players that are great or on the cusp of it.

Let me know what YOU think in the comments. x