ARSENAL OUTCLASSED BY BAYERN

HERE'S THE COPIUM

We'll start out with a bit of perspective.

That was Arsenal's first Champions League in 7 years. It was our first quarter-final in 14 years. Only two of our starting 11 players had played in the Champions League before this season. We just lost a game to a Bayern Munich that won the CL 3 years ago - hasn't been out of the comp in living memory - and had 8 CL winners in the game-day squad.

Below is the record of Manchester City. The most monied club in the world. Best CEO, best manager, best coaches, best data team, best players, best facilities, best scouts, highest wage bill, top 2 transfer budget... and they have won it once since 2011.

They also went out against a Madrid side that I would say would finish 4th in the Premier League at best.

There is no shame in what happened last night. We conceded 3 stupid goals in transition to a side that is way more experienced than us. We didn't have the game management or the stardust to make it count in a tough game.

Barcelona, Atletit, and City is fine company to be keeping on the exit ramp.

At the highest level, which is where we are, it's a game of fine margins and sometimes you come up short.

We came up short.

The plan was a good one. We kept the ball for spells but didn't press high. Then we worked off a trigger and went hard at Bayern. Arsenal created great chances but couldn't finish.

The second half went the way of the Villa game. We lost sight of the plan we were supposed to be executing, then we switched off and didn't have the magic needed to bring the game back to life.

It's hard to really put your finger on what the exact cause of that second half was. For me, it was a blend of being emotionally and physically drained, combined with a lack of experience. As the game wore on, we shrank, and Bayern grew. I didn't feel the sense of control we've had all season because I don't think it was there. The players seemed like they'd given up, even if they did have a few late chances.

Two areas really need addressing this summer if we're going to move up a level.

I think we lack true magic at times. We have to work hard for our goals. If we're honest, the system is the star at all times. It works because we have workhorse players that are mentally tough and can follow instructions down to a T. We have a stunning crop of players, I am not denying that, but we don't have A-listers that change a game in a flash. Liverpool have Salah, Trent and Jota. City has Silva, KDB, and Haaland. Spurs have Park. We overperform xPTS by the lowest margin in the top 5. The only team in the top 8 close to us is Newcastle who are underperforming. What does that tell you? The system we have gives you what you deserve. We lack the wúnderbar magic our rivals have.

In close games like the one from last night, you need a bit of special sauce (not Nando's, I'm afraid), and Bayern had Sane over two legs. We don't have a player that turns a shit performance into a win, like a Harry Kane. If we're shit, we lose. Even the games we've lost this season, there are very few we've lost on xG.

Bukayo Saka is that guy. He's 22 years old. The man has been incredible. But last night was too much for him. He looked like a kid playing in an age group higher than him. He didn't win any duels, all his dribbles failed, he had no shots, no accurate crosses, and he didn't create any chances. It was a dreadful performance from him. In the 94th minute we were gifted a late freekick, Bukayo rushed it to put Ben White through on goal. The following corner was our last hope, we are the best at corners in the world, so what did our starboy do? Hit the man at the front post like it was 2009.

Not good enough if we want to dine at the chefs table.

That kind of leads me into the point I've been making since the start of the season. If you don't rotate, you don't win things. We are now suffering that in April again. When it's the third year in a row, you have to start asking questions of our brilliant manager.

I could maybe handle 'the manager doesn't trust Holding, Cedric and Smith Rowe' but I can't handle 'the manager doesn't trust Partey, Vieira, Zinchenko, Tomi, ESR, Reiss, and Eddie.'

Our season is collapsing with a fully fit squad to choose from. Who is that on?

Thomas Partey has been fit for a while, he gets next to no minutes. We know he's top class. Why didn't Arteta take more chances on his earlier in his rehab? Now he's useless.

Tomi has been fit since March 31st. He's played 81 minutes (barring last night). Why?

We signed Reiss Nelson to a £100k a week deal. He's contributed 429 minutes in CL and EPL. What was the point of making him the Saka back-up?

Fabio Vieira was Arteta's boy. Now he's not. Why?

Eddie and Smith Rowe are persona non grata.

The difference between this season and last season is this season, we didn't break anyone... we just cooked them so they can't give their all.

Until Arteta gets to grip with his squad management, we're always going to be stuck in April, crying about losing to teams we're better than.

It's painful.

I'm not sure I have much of an upside today. My gut was we'd lose to Bayern and probably end our Premier League chase on Saturday away at Wolves. I think that's the path it's going to go. This season was always going to be difficult to navigate. We changed our system to give us more control, we upgraded our 6, 8, and 1, and we played our first CL season.

By any standard, this season has been a roaring success.

The job Arteta has done is a miracle. Those saying otherwise have lost their damn minds. Suggest something better or faster. I'm not sure you could. Arsenal opted to do things the hard way because we don't have nation-state cash. That meant we hired a rookie manager, signed players that weren't ready, and took the slow route back to the top.

Check out this chart from Opta. It's the average age of starting 11s this season in the EPL dated March 26th.

We have the third youngest starting 11 in the Premier League and we are second right now. City and Liverpool sit 10th/11th spots. There is so much growth to be had at Arsenal. We are a long way off our peak.

Players bumping the avg age at Arsenal: Jorginho 32, Trossard 29, Partey 30, Raya 28

Players bumping avg age at Liverpool: Salah 31, Alisson 31, Thiago 33, Endo 31, Robertson 30,

Players bumping avg age at City: Walker 33, KDB 32, Ederson 30, Kovacic 29, Ake 29, Stone 29, Silva 29, Grealish 28, Akanji 28

What do you notice? Our mega stars are not phasing out any time soon. Those at City and Liverpool are.

Could it be better now? Maybe. But always remember... we are chasing perfection, and perfection just lost to Madrid in a penalty shootout and it took them a long time to make it in Europe.

The path we are on is the right one. Think there's a better one? Ask United fans. Ask Chelsea fans. Ask Newcastle fans. Ask Spurs fans. Ask Liverpool fans when the correction comes post-Klopp and everyone realises that he left because he knew it was about the tank.

Arsenal is built well, our best players are 2-3 seasons from peak, and if we continue to make great decisions, we will reach the promised land.

The journey there is the fun part, you'll realise that when we're defending trophies, not chasing dreams.

This bit is just for the newsletter readers. I’ll be migrating to Substack fully over the next couple of months. I’ll be keeping the writing free until the end of the season, but if you’re kind enough to support early (which some of you have been), you’ll be getting all the podcasts advert-free. The emails will come to you separately. You can access them via the app. In the long term, the blog will be partially moving to a paid model, and that’ll affect some of the newsletters. This allows me to keep the blog advert free and it gets me out of paying for a server. Some AOP listeners have asked if they will be able to get the writing and the podcasts together. The answer is yes; you can just shift your sign-up to here.

Ok, that’s me done. xxx