ARSENAL CAN'T SELL, EVEN IF THE BID IS MEGA

'HOMEGROWN' DETAILS EXPLORED AS MARKET HEATS UP

Some of you got up in my mentions SLAMMING me for daring to challenge another man’s (two) vacation.

Then Joe Willock’s holiday pics were him pumping iron…

Then Eddie popped up with these shots.

On a boring boat.

What was he doing?

Pumping the largest 12.5 kg weights you’ve ever seen like he was Rambo in the jungle, preparing to force peace on another nation by flexing his guns and that big smile.

That’s the difference, people.

Anyway, this slinks nicely into what I’ve been telling you for ages: Eddie is going to have takers this summer.

Fulham are leading the charge with Wolves and Palace lurking in the background. The fee mooted is £30 million, which seems a touch low, but his wages are quite large, so who knows. I’d imagine Edu and Garlick want close to what they got for the lesser-equipped Flo Balogun. So we’ll see where this ends up.

The trend for this summer will be clear: Smaller clubs will focus more of their spending on risk-mitigation signings that know the league. They’ll have watched what young kids did to Chelsea (a billion dollars to finish 6th) and they might even pay attention to Arsenal pushing for the title by signing predominantly Premier League-based players.

Next up on the exit menu is Emile, who has attracted interest from Fulham as well. I have no idea where the fee for him is going because there’s a lack of evidence he can stay fit. This is a £45 million player if he’s playing at his highest level. He gives teams control, flair, and output. It’s a punt worth taking if you’re not in Europe, and I think he’ll have clubs lining up for him… maybe even Aston Villa (would be funny if Buendia, who rejected AFC, was ended by Emile).

It’ll be interesting to see how Arsenal play the local interest in their players. Basic fans like you and me always imagine a world where players can be traded like antiques - but the reality is those swap deals are few and far between unless there’s financial impropriety involved (or someone is getting shafted, usually Arsenal (Gallas / Mikhi)).

However, in a world of cash-strappedness and PSR pain - could the trade become a little more ubiquitous?

Something else we’re not really thinking about is the homegrown quota. Hale End is not having a good time in this new era - the main players we’re looking to ship on are English players. The issue we might run into is that we don’t have that much elite talent coming through the ranks.

The list amounts to:

• Ethan Nwaneri (17)

• Chido (16)

• Max Dowman (14)

There’s only one player close here, and that’s Ethan, but even then, it’s a bit of a risk to expect him to get decent minutes next season, and the path could well be a loan plan like the one we put in place for Saliba.

Here is how Arsenal explains the homegrown rule:

As per the league’s rules, the 25 players cannot contain no more than 17 who do not fulfil “homegrown” criteria. 

“Homegrown” means a player who, irrespective of nationality or age, has been registered with any club in England or Wales for a period, continuous or not, of three entire seasons before his 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which he turns 21).

Players under the age of 21 do not need be included in our 25-player squad, and clubs can field as many under-21s as they wish throughout the campaign.

These are the homegrown players:

1. Emile Smith Rowe

2. Reiss Nelson

3. James Hillson

4. Eddie Nketiah

5. Aaron Ramsdale

6. David Raya

7. Declan Rice

8. Bukayo Saka

9. William Saliba

10. Ben White

11. Gabriel Martinelli

There are potentially five players exiting our homegrown list this summer. James Hillson (23 years old) was binned yesterday. We need a minimum of eight players to hit league rules. If we ship all of them, we’ll be two short of hitting the league minimum.

Arsenal announced a list of 22 players that are getting exited. A slew of names that have had hype halos over the years told it’s over.

Catalin Cirjan, Mauro Bandeira, Omari Benjamin, Luis Brown, Noah Cooper, Henry Davies, Ovie Ejeheri, Mohamed Elneny, Taylor Foran, Hubert Graczyk, James Hillson, Henry Jeffcott, Tyreece John-Jules, Alex Kirk, James Lannin-Sweet, Kaylan Marckese, Arthur Okonkwo, Kamarni Ryan, Cedric Soares, Kido Taylor-Hart, Vivianne Miedema, Sabrina D’Angelo

It’s a little bit disappointing that more players aren’t cutting it, even at a squad level. But Arsenal has gotten way better. I think my slight concern is that the players we’re shipping are rarely getting moves to Celtic, Ajax, or Bayer Leverkusen. Our production line needs to start catching up with some of the other academies… Liverpool in particular has been standout and so has the one they have at City.

It seems like it’s in hand - Arsenal gave Per Mertesacker a transfer budget this summer so he can start pillaging Europe like Wenger used to in the Project Youth days. For Arsenal to create a sustainable football model, we need to be able to sell more youth products, versus releasing them into the wild.

Either way, my point remains, Edu might want to chop out the struggling Hale Enders, but could be curtailed by Homegrown rules… and let’s be real, if anyone is staying on for one more season, it’s Reiss Nelson.

Cedric and Big Mo have exited the building. I want to be kind here. Regardless of what you think of their tenure, those are two characters that absolutely adored their time at Arsenal. They weren’t bad eggs; they were all about the culture, and they contributed to our resurgence in their own ways. You can’t knock that. There aren’t many squads in the world that don’t have that - even Manchester City still has Scott Carson as their third-choice keeper at 38 years old. Some people are good for the kids and good for the mood of the camp. We barely saw either this season and that was a good thing. Jorginho would technically take over the role of Mo and he’s still brilliant. Arteta is building out the defence so there are no versions of Cedric in the squad.

Big Mo exiting also signals the end of an era for Wenger. No more players at Arsenal were signed by him. This squad is basically all Mikel Arteta. That’s a good thing.

Arsenal fans are once again falling over themselves because Napoli wants to replace Osimhen with Lukaku. Yes, Lukaku is still playing.

Never say never in football, but come on people. Victor Osimhen moved to Napoli in July 2020 from Lille. The transfer fee was reported to be around €70 million, €80 million with add-ons, making it one of the most expensive transfers in Napoli's history. Do you think four years on, after he signed a new deal in December (as a Serie A winner) with a €130 million release clause… we’re going to get anywhere near the number?

As a reminder, we didn’t sign Raya for £28 million because we were running up against PSR. I do not believe there is a world where we go near that fee. The only amusing thing for me is that Chelsea was the great blue hope for the mega move and they are OUT. Who else is going to activate this summer? I’m honestly not sure he’s worth half that.

Arsenal were interested in Ivan Toney because they thought they could get him for under £60 million. They are likely going to sign Sesko because they can get him for under £50 million. Evan Ferguson was of interest because he’s fallen out with Brighton, and there might have been a deal to be had. I just don’t see a world where we buy someone for more than double - because it’s not clear to me that the player can deliver double the output.

I’m also not sure you should spend too much time worrying about all these kids setting up blue tick Twitter accounts pretending there’s a market for agents telling children the details of transfer news. No agent, executive, or player is getting onto the phone with a teenager to tell them what’s happening on a deal. Unless you have true influence over a lot of people, no one is going to waste their time. Fabrizio might have made a business out of transfer rumours, and he clearly has the ear of all sorts of people in football… but he has 6 million followers.

So what I’m saying is take it easy on the cheap transfer crack and don’t expend any emotion on small accounts pretending to know what the deal is.

Ok, that’s me done. If you want to hear The AOP boys talking about their predictions, it’s the previous post, or you can get it on Patreon.

I’ll be dropping a primo post tomorrow, so sign up on Substack if you like that sort of thing. One final little note on the move to a membership writing model here. I know life is expensive at the moment. If you’re a long-term reader and the paid model is killing you for whatever reason, please, just email me, and we’ll sort it out.

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Big love to all those who have supported LG; you are the best. xxx