TRANSFER STRATEGY AND PLAYER TIERS

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I leave England for a few years and Liam Gallagher in #1? What is going on? Did he sing ‘You can’t always get what you want?’? No? Was that the Stones?

Well, that’s how I am feeling right now.

The winds of Ornstein seem to be blowing very hard in the direction of Arsenal making moves on Gabriel Jesus.

So come in close and listen up…

…I will delete every piece of smallman slander I ever penned about the Brazilian if he joins and you will never, ever, hold me accountable to a single word of it.

Are we clear?

Good.

Gabriel Jesus is a winner, he’s great in tight spaces, he can create out of nothing, he’s electric, and he’s still young.

Do I think we’re missing a trick not having a single striker at the club over 6ft tall? Absolutely. This feels a little bit like the years when Wenger was very insistent that you didn’t need tall centre backs when we were leaking from setpieces. Or the time he filled our midfield with eighteen #10 talents.

But, does a Gabriel like player help you break the deadlock in more games next season? I’d say so.

This is one of those moments when we have to accept that the best way to scout a player is probably to spend 3 years coaching them every day. Arteta knows the talent, he knows the potential, he might know what’s missing from Gabriel’s game, and he knows the character.

Let’s see where the story goes, but the winds of inevitability seem to be moving his ship south at the moment.

That said… Italian publication Repubblica reckons we’re properly in love with Scamacca, we’re offering 35m euros, the Italian club wants 50m. The negotiations are entering a ‘hot phase.’

Arsenal insist on Scamacca: the blue striker has been in the crosshairs of technician Arteta for months and contacts with Sassuolo have become frantic. Inter likes Scamacca very much – with whom they have an economic agreement – but the situations related to Lukaku and Dybala have put the negotiation with the Emilian club on standby. Especially since the demand is very high. The 1999 class really appeals to the London-based company, ready to invest in the 35 million euros. Sassuolo continues to ask for 50 and the negotiation, in the coming days, will enter the hot phase. Arsenal is also very interested in Osimhen, but the 100 million requested by De Laurentiis (Newcastlar alone has come close to this figure) are deemed excessive by the Gunners, which do not exceed 60 million euros.

I don’t ever trust these stories because Italians travel worse than McDonald’s with Uber Eats. But if I was to be sexy and suggestive here, I would say that this chap is a very good Tier 2 option after we’ve missed out on more fancy targets.

Clubs will have tiered options when they go into a window and they’ll be negotiating multiple options at the same time.

Here’s an example of some tiers.

Tier 1: Vlahovic, Tammy, Oshimen

Tier 2: Scamacca, DCL, Alex Isak

Tier 3: Hlozek, Mitrovic

Tier 1 strikers will come at greater expense, with more guarantees, but they’ll have competition for their signatures.

Tier 2 strikers will have profiles that look very similar to Tier 1, but they either don’t have a long enough track record to know if they are top class, or form players… or they are much younger. Scamacca has 3 seasons of first-team football, 2 at the highest level in Italy, and he’s gone from 8 goals to 16 in a season. He looks like Vlahovic and Tammy, but he’s higher risk.

Maybe we’re dropping into tier two this summer because Arteta would rather spread the goals load across more players. We take a hit on a tier 2 striker with a high ceiling and over-invest in a tier 1 winger.

Ben White was a tier 1 centre back for his age, Tomiyasu and Lokonga would have been tier 2 players. Ben White and Tomiyasu had very good seasons, Lokonga had a middling one. Nuno Tavares was a tier 3 left back and he’ll be out on loan next season. There are no guarantees with transfers, but the more money you have, the more you can derisk the chance the of failure by picking from Tier 1.

William Saliba, according to the oddballs in French media, is going to go on TV to talk about his future. This feels like the time LeBron James did a piece called DECISION over his future. Except it’s for a player that finished 2nd in Ligue 1. Like, mate, just get on with it and stop creating so much drama.

There are some DRAMA stories going off in the media, one of them is that Arsenal will only sign three players this summer because we don’t have Champions League.

Firstly, that wouldn’t be a disaster. The difference between finishing on 76 points this season and 69 was not having sufficient coverage in 3 positions: Striker, midfield, full back. We don’t need 7 players. Though we might end up with 6-7 new faces this summer anyway.

William Saliba should be added to the defence.

Ainsley might be given a chance at right-back coverage.

We’ve signed Matt Turner as back-up keeper already.

We also have a host of young players that are knocking on the door like Sambi Lokonga. Those players will get minutes next season. Don’t rule out one of them making the jump or there being a surprise package next season because more minutes are being shared out.

From there, if you added Tielemans, Gabriel Jesus, a back-up left-back we would have 10 extra points on last season.

I don’t think we’ll leave it at 3 players because I think we’ll move on names.  I don’t expect to see Nico Pepe here next season and I think there will be a move on a wide forward. There’s always a chance Kieran Tierney might move to another club if there’s a mega offer. There’s always a chance someone might come back for Granit Xhaka who isn’t getting any younger.

It’s really weird for anyone to write what Arsenal definitely will or won’t do when we’re working in a market that has a wild variance of possibilities.

No one knows the full plan yet, not even those at the club, because the market is ALWAYS unpredictable.

Right, here I am selling content again.

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340 Responses to “TRANSFER STRATEGY AND PLAYER TIERS”

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  1. TR7

    Rafa is tactically the most astute tennis player ever. I have never seen any player who adjusts his game to deal with challenges thrown by opponents as easily and quickly as Rafa.

  2. WengerEagle

    TR7

    22 Slams will be hard for Djoker to overtake now. Bizarre given where Rafa was physically just half a year ago that he is now on the brink of winning his first Aus/French double since 09′.

  3. WengerEagle

    Vermaelen was more of a liability than Kos ever was but he masked it by having a hammer of a left peg on him and scoring some worldies.

    Still liked Verm, was a decent CB.

  4. RP7

    Nketiah scored 5 league goals and 1 assist in 21 games, 826 minutes.

    2 of these were because GKs were unprepared for his acceleration. Won’t happen much if he plays and scores regularly.

    If he’s a starter, he’ll get 13 – 16 goals and 3 or 4 assists. Good enough. For top 6, that is.

  5. TR7

    WE

    No, it will be his first Aus and French open double. In 2009 he lost to Soderling in FO I think.

    Yes, Djoker has his task cut out. He is only a year younger to Nadal and will have 2 GS deficit to bridge. A lot of good young players getting better and better. Felix, Zverev, Alcaraz, Medvedev etc. have improved a lot in last 9 months or so.

  6. WengerEagle

    At 35 you cannot take it for granted that he will win slams anymore outside of Wimbledon which for me he is going to win barring a shock. Still by far the best Grass player and none of the nextgen have good records on the Grass.

    But yeah, up against it even if Rafa retires after this match which is a possibility given the foot issue and that he is 36.

  7. Un

    RP7June 5, 2022 15:57:33
    Nketiah scored 5 league goals and 1 assist in 21 games, 826 minutes.

    RP7

    5 goals in 8 league starts
    10 in 13 overall.
    3 minutes at the end of a game isn’t really a credible appearance in anyone’s book

  8. WengerEagle

    ”How did Ruud reach the final? I admit that I haven’t watched him too many times, but today it doesn’t even look close Vs Rafa.”

    Never would have happened if it wasn’t for a very generous draw. If he met any of Nadal, Djokovic, Zverev or Alcaraz he would have lost before the Final.

  9. TR7

    Rap

    FO draw was top heavy. All the top favorites (Rafa, Djoker, Alcaraz and Zverev) were in top half leaving the other half open. Tsitsipas and Medvedev were only two top players in the other half of draw and of them Med is not even a good clay court player.

  10. TR7

    To be fair to Rudd, Rafa on clay when the Sun is out is just a different animal and makes a mincemeat of any player.

  11. WengerEagle

    It is getting ridiculous how the nextgen still are not breaking through with Rafa and Djokovic in their mid 30s.

    Outside of Thiem in a US Open without Rafa or Djokovic in 2020 and Medvedev in last year’s US Open (again without Rafa) nobody outside of Rafa, Djokovic and Federer have won Slam since Wawrinka in 2016.

  12. WengerEagle

    Only more one-sided Final I can remember is when Djokovic blew Nadal off the court in straight sets in 2 hours at the Aus Final in 2019.

    The Women’s Final that year was longer.

  13. TR7

    Rafa at 36 is still the best clay court player by a margin which is ridiculous. I think he can win FO again next year too. If he plays only GS, he can reach to 25 titles.

  14. TR7

    “Only more one-sided Final I can remember is when Djokovic blew Nadal off the court in straight sets in 2 hours at the Aus Final in 2019.”

    Med and Rafa demolished Djoker in 2021 US Open and 2020 FO respectively.

  15. WengerEagle

    2020 was a weird one TR7. Rafa bageled him in the 1st set IIRC but Djoker actually won a lot of points and kept just losing the crucial ones. Think it actually took quite a bit of time to complete the set.

    I think that Alcaraz is well capable of winning RG next year. His improvement in the last year has been huge and he has just turned 19.

  16. TR7

    Alcaraz is insanely talented but he needs to improve his decision making. Gets a bit carried away with his flamboyance.

  17. salparadisenyc

    Alway knew the final was Joker rest had potential to be a waltz, shame we didnt get a full match vs Zverez. Regardless Rafa is the king.

    Nobody retires halfway thru a grandslam run.

  18. WengerEagle

    He’ll probably skip Wimbledon and save himself for the US Open where he has a much greater chance of winning.

    Glad he hasn’t retired. Guy is a legend.

  19. TR7

    Should Rafa not strive for a calendar slam ? It’s not like Rafa can’t play on grass. If Djoker falters against someone, Rafa will stand with a chance to win it. Anyway I think it will all depend on his foot situation.

  20. WengerEagle

    Yeah he did push Djoker all the way in 2018 in the Wimby SF to be fair in 5 sets. On another day he would have beaten him.

    Has actually been going fairly deep there in recent years too after the 2017 resurgence.

  21. WengerEagle

    Wimbledon starts in 3 weeks though, fuck all turnaround time for Rafa who is probably physically knackered.

    No Zverev, Medvedev, Federer either.

    Djokovic’s tournament to lose on paper.

  22. Dissenter

    Why don’t we just get Tollisso
    If he can stay fit, he’s better than anything Tiellesman will offer

    ….and he’s available on a free transfer

  23. Vintage Gun

    “Why don’t we just get Tollisso
    If he can stay fit, he’s better than anything Tiellesman will offer”

    That’s the thing, He can’t stay fit.