xG TABLE FLAMED + RACE FOR TOP 3 GETS SPICY

by .

GOOD MORNING TO YOU ALL!

It’s a huge day for our shared agenda.

Spurs go to Anfield.

Liverpool needs to keep their title fight alive.

Spurs need to take at least a point to keep Thursday spicy and open.

The Premier League this season does not give a fuck about what you think will happen, it works to its own beat, so don’t write of Antonio Conte. He’s a lucky manager, Spurs have been lucky all season, they could easily walk away with 3 points from 1 shot all game, such is the qualidee of Son and Harry Kane.

Then tomorrow, we have to fight for our lives and bring home the 3 points, no question.

The biggest threat Leeds pose is twofold:

  1. They will fly at us regardless of the personnel
  2. They have so few players to choose from it’ll be hard to predict their line-up or tactics

There are also annoying narratives that favor them: they haven’t beaten a top 6 side all season. That’s usually a sign to the footballing gods to work something our way.

Am I thinking about Mark Viduka? Am I thinking about Harry Kewel scoring and running to the corner flag? Am I thinking about David O’leary ruining the Arsenal party of yesteryear? Maybe.

My Uncle, total geezer, major Leeds away day fans, reckons they’ll get slapped. He has zero faith that his team can do anything and he’s not playing games. Says they don’t have the quality to do what they did to us in the past.

Leeds lack top playerrs, they have very little experience, and their defence lives for giving up spaces. They are a club that is pretty incapable of delivering a deep-block for 90minutes. My uncle is adamant that Leeds are going to go down this season.

Mikel Arteta needs to have the team super focused. I’m quite confident we’ll create lots of openings because we tend to do that in most games. In front of our home fans, in the sunshine, with an electric atmosphere, it’ll be very hard for Leeds.

I’d love Eddie to head into his log cabin, chop up some wood, and put a mile-high stack of chips on his shoulder. Leeds treated him badly. He was moved there, he should have gone to Dusseldorf, his career suffered when he sat on the bench. A hat trick would be NICE.

I’m not sure how Arteta will line-up, I’d love to see ESR back in the starting 11, his form has been a bit up and down, he’s clearly not fully fit, but now would be a great time to make a case for the Thursday game.

NO INJURIES is mainly where I am on secondary hopes and dreams.

What is even more tantalizing is that Chelsea dropped 2 points from a winning position against Wolves. They were dreadful again, Thomas Tuchel is overseeing a car crash by Chelsea standards, so a win at Leeds could very much open up the idea of a 3rd place finish.

Also, United losing, AGAIN. Remember how many people thought Ralf Rangnick was the silver bullet they needed and that it was curtains for our challenge?

Tomorrow is a big, big chance to attack a higher position.

It’s a HUGE chance to change how we approach Thursday. If we beat Leeds, Spurs HAS to come and play against us because a point won’t be enough.

This is exactly what we wanted at the start of the season. For our games to matter heading into the final throes of the season.

Before we go, I do want to quickly reference some cheques I’ve been cashing. Remember when we went on an exceptional run of wins after we lost the opening three? And people started throwing around the xG table as a reason to be terrified? I do.

I penned an article about the weaponisation of xG. People went at me about it. DATA IS OUR GOD NOW, PEDRO. But, turns out, my new turn as a data non-believer has led me down a righteous path.

Now I’m cashing cheques, people are all like, ‘oh no, we were just having a rational conversation about xG’… no, we weren’t.

Here’s what was missing from being concerned that we were 5th, but playing like 16th.

There was no context in the xG for the covid outbreak

No context for a newly assembled young team dealing with the top 3 teams so early

No context for game state: xG stated that we lost against Spurs and LCFC. If you watched those games, you’ll have remembered we battered them early, then sat back

There was also a lack of understanding about how young teams perform in general, and teams under Arteta had developed (season prior, post December, we went on a tear).

  • Arteta has a very specific playing style
  • His ideas are complex
  • He relies on automatism that come with time
  • Top young players get better

People couldn’t get that info from xG, but it was clear to anyone paying attention post-December was going to be a lot better, which is why the xG pearl-clutching was bollocks pushed by people who wanted to throw shade at the progress.

xG is a guide, not a god.

Points on the table are more valuable than theory points on an xG table.

Most people cannot be trusted with free data.

Arsenal wouldn’t have spent time fretting over that xG table because they knew what was going on.

We move.

See you in the comments, pray to the gods of gegenpressing, and hope lady luck isn’t in cahoots with Unai Conte this evening.

x

 

 

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Left Testicle

Pepe is poo poo. 💩

TheLegendaryDB10

The counter attack was not to be.

rollen

Cmon how is this allowed to happen

TR7

“Much has been made about how we’ll improve once we have a better CF but I’m not sure how much difference it will make. Unless we’re playing on the counter against a better team, we only know how to play horseshoe football in 3rd gear. It’s so predictable. ESR is the only player that breaks patters and he gets benched.”

Spot on !! Lot of work to be done in both defense and attack.

TheLegendaryDB10

Great performance by Eddie.

We need to keep him at all costs.

Losing him this summer would be a big mistake.

Left Testicle

There are much better strikers out there than Nketiah.

TheLegendaryDB10

Great save by Aaron…

And …. ???

Samesong

Good three points but alot to ponder upon
Don’t think spurs will be quaking in their boots next week.

Guernsey+gun

That was a pathetic last 10 mins, this team needs some bollox. Champions league, jesus christ.

Nelson

Pepe has zero football IQ.

Dissenter

We made that difficult
We didn’t use that extra man advantage
It’s a great win though. Every game is going to be a cup final

rollen

Old good Arsenal nothing easy way.

Thierry Martinelli

3 points in the bag. COYG

Left Testicle

Pepe is weak, both physically and mentally.

Sly

Win at spurs will tie up 4th
We can do it

DM

I don’t know if this has been said already but I can’t believe how good Elneny was today, he was an absolute beast, Partey couldn’t have done any better. He’s been excellent since we’ve needed him but today was next level. Such an absolute pro, really good to have him when we need him putting in shifts like this.

MidwestGun

Nice 3 points.. needed that.. 4points up with 3 to go.. tight.

Dissenter

Leftside
Do you think we struggled today because there are better strikers than Eddie out there

Without Eddie’s aggression, that first goal doesn’t happen and who knows how the day would have played out.

gunnerman

Lets do it at the toiletbowl and get back to where we belong.

Left Testicle

Hope MA doesn’t set up for the draw on Thursday.

Danny

Another ugly win but they all countt so fuck it.

TR7

Elneny absolutely brilliant in the last 4 games

James wood.

ELNENY ESSENTIAL.
VERY GOOD AGAIN.

Chris

We’re nearly there. Avoid defeat on Thursday and we just need one win?

Everton may be safe by the last day at this rate so perhaps that won’t be as tough as it could have been.

TheLegendaryDB10

Aaaand

Here is top 4!!!!

With a good eye on top 3.

Decent performance overall but we need to learn to step a gear and be more ruthless and get that 3rd goal.

We got complacent and that nearly cost us.

The target is well in sight.

Onwards and Upwards The Arsenal!!!

Left Testicle

I’m not saying Nketiah is bad, just we don’t need to shit the bed if he decides his future lays elsewhere.

And I’m ‘Testicle’ not ‘Side’.

Rich

Big credit to Tomi, only his second start since mid January, and playing out of position.

Thought he was excellent

Dissenter

Hopefully Everton secure their premier league stay by the final day because that too is going ti be a slug.

We are still too far from CL quality

Left Testicle

Yes, Elneny v. Good again and Tommy is a more calming influence than the Portuguese Eboue.

WengerEagle

Massive win.

If we avoid defeat on Thurs then 4th is basically in the bag with a 4 point gap and 2 left to play. If we were to win we mathematically seal it.

Everton winning today is also good because they look like they will be safe by the last day against us looking at Leeds’ fixture list now.

Jonko

Now just a City win and this would be a horrible weekend for two of the most vile fanbase..three actually

Jonko

Make that four lol

Chrispy

I know Id much rather be in this position than the Spuds. I think we’ll win on Thursday too.

MidwestGun

Yep Lampard looks like he has saved them perhaps, That and Leicester are shit these days.

Tony 2

So chaps what was all the panic n stress about lol

Chika

Really glad Everton also secured three points today. We really don’t need another nervy game on the final day.

China1

Samesong

His crossing is never fast enough or accurate enough to cause genuine danger and if we’re not good in the air why does he throw in 200 crosses per game? It doesn’t add any value whatsoever.

Would be just as useful for him to just pass the ball straight out of play for an opposition throw in. In either case we’re giving the ball away for absolutely nothing

Dissenter

Left testicle
Apologies for the wrong moniker
When people ask for Eddie’s extension, no one is talking about making him the main starker though. It’s about being in a rotation or just being plain back up if the elite striker we sign is that good.

Rich

Same team on Thursday?….

Does White come back in, or has Holding done enough to keep his place?

G

Good thing Is spurs will have to come at us on Thursday

WengerEagle

I think we can beat Spurs too.

We can afford to sit back and hit them on the break like we did at Stamford Bridge. It is an absolute must win for them so they will have to be the ones to initiate, push forward and we can pick them off and exploit the gaps on thr counter at will.

Saka will have a field day.

Dissenter

We weren’t very good today and one of those last three games, it will catch up with us.
We were 2-0 up at home with a man advantage by the 12 minute

What did we let that slide into drama?

MidwestGun

4 wins in a row when we needed it most.. no complaints from me.

Danny

Same team on Thursday?…
——–
Start ESR instead of Odegaard.

MidwestGun

Off to hear Pedro on the pod.

gunnerman

Dissenter

At this point, I’m going to put it down to nerves and the young squad.
Not saying there won’t be any more nerves in the last three games but hopefully the position the team is in now gives them all some confidence.

WengerEagle

Elneny has done enough this past while to convince me he can be a valuable squad player and is worth holding onto.

Better than Xhaka and plays very well with TP, they have good chemistry.

TR7

Not that it is likely to happen but against Spurs we should play back 3 and sit back. Spurs look totally toothless against teams which play deep. Even a draw more or less seals top 4 for us.

Tomi, Holding and Gabriel in back 3
Cedric and Saka wing back

Rich

Playing against 10 men sitting deep is difficult.

We went to Anfield in the league cup, went down to 10 men early, sat deep, frustrated Liverpool , and actually had the better chances

Chelsea did the same at Liverpool early in the season, we seen Spurs at Anfield last night so very little ambition, but end up with the better chances.

Third goal would have killed it, but ultimately we controlled the game well overall, just a bit nervy towards the end

Karsa

The result is everything.

The spuds will be shaking in their boots because even if they win they can miss out on top 4.

Tony

Keep racking up the points and now keep the Chavs in our cross hairs for the remaining 3 games.

Spuds will be a spicy game with all to play for for them.

raptora

3 PTS all that matter but we also played well.

Massive mental barrier ahead of us when/if we finish in top 4. We are so green and weak psychologically. Next season will be harder than this without a single doubt.

WengerEagle

It’a wild that we can pip the Chavs to 3rd at this stage.

They have been in free fall the past few weeks and are dropping points vs everyone. Will be tough but very possible.

They have a GD of +39 to ours +14 and there is just 1 point in it, madness.

Nigel Tufnel

Not happy with the second half of course, but let’s not lose perspective. We were dominating them from the beginning. Then we started the second half like we were experimenting on the training ground. I can’t believe Arteta told them to go out and play like that. It’s an extremely young team not knowing how to properly handle in game situations. Haters who have never played the game will blame Arteta, but that’s why you’re called haters. We’re still on course for Pedro’s stretch goal. Pressure on both teams for Thursday. Should be more on them, but they’re a more… Read more »

Samesong

Spurs wlll try nick an early goal and sit on it.

WengerEagle

3rd would be amazing too cause no CL qualifer in July.

And some decent sides in 4th with Atletico Madrid, Juventus, RB Leipzig.

Un

Tomiyasu was a boss today
And martinelli
Just on the day that I down talked him

TR7

Newcastle have been very good under Eddie Howe. They played well against Pool. City and Arsenal will have to play well to defeat them. That’s why imperative we get at least a draw against Spurs.

Southern Slide Tackle

Rap,

Agree with your assessment on the ream mentality. We looked weak mentally towards the end of the game (1st goal from set of all year correct?). I’m sure that’s the inexperience of a young team. Unless we pull out a victory at WHL, These last three games are going to be very nervy. However, if we can secure top 4, I expect the team belief to really grow and next year we win a game like this 4 or 5-0 next year!

Dissenter

Wenger Eagle
‘ 3rd would be amazing too cause no CL qualifer in July’

Actually the 4th pace qualifier from the top 4 leagues no longer play qualifiers

Just goes to show how far out of the loop gooners have been with the CL

3rd place confers no more advantage than 4th place for the CL purposes.

Havyn

My problem with Martinelli is his wastage of chances ESR could’ve buried one of the chances

At Spurs, EDR should play.

China1

Apart from the infinite Cedric gorm crosses there’s nothing else I will be bagging on today

I said 3 points at any cost. 3 points taken. Thank you arsenal

WengerEagle

Really Dissenter?

Jaysus, it has been too long eh.

London gunner

Newcastle are basically safe now with Leeds losing today.

Newcastle would need to give up a goal difference of 19.

Even if they get pummelled by City today it’s highly unlikely especially as after us they only face Burnley.

S23

Great result,hopefully after watching the dire display from Liverpool yesterday,we will not be throwing aimless crosses in,just let Martinelli,Eddie and saka dribble into the area,anything can happen then.
I just hope,as we all do-we dont regret those 3 games after the international break,because we have really stepped up since then.

WengerEagle

I agree about us being too green and soft in certain moments. It is why I find it so bizarre the hang-up a lot on here seem to have about signing players over 25. I get that stance with 30+ year olds but mid 20s, really? We badly need to add some personality and experience to the team to prep us for CL football next season. I would personally welcome a vet ST like a Muriel/Zapata/Gerard Moreno as a stop-gap for 2 years while we come across a better long-term alternative be it transfer market or one of Marti/Eddie stepping… Read more »

Gonsterous

Great job from the lads to see out the win.

Pepes confidence is shot. I don’t think we’ll see him for the remainder of the season. It was a poor cameo.

salparadisenyc

It would’d be Arsenal if we didn’t suffer.

Don’t care was all about the 3x points, 4 wins on the bounce into our biggest match of the season.
What a position to be in after loosing the opening three, clawing back then loosing another three before this run.

Spurs have to play ball this week, something they aren’t great at, interesting to see how Mik set us up.

Rich

WE

What’s the vet idea?

DivineSherlock

We are Arsenal and we are going to Champions League !!!!! Yeahhhhhhhhh

WengerEagle

Rich

A short-term 2 year stop-gap like a Moreno, Zapata, etc that can come in and likely score us 15+ in the PL while Martinelli/Eddie continue to develop and there will be so many games now with CL football too.

Or a better option appears on the market. I don’t want us blowing our load on Osimhen for 70m only for a better and gettable ST to emerge next season.

TR7

I don’t know whether we will be in for a left back in the summer but really really impressed with Cucurella of Brighton. A Spanish international who has got both ability and character.

WengerEagle

Or DCL, Jesus christ I’d sooner start the season with what we have already.

WengerEagle

TR7

Dissenter made the valid point the other day that Cucurella is the type that we have to identify and recruit when he is at Getafe, not when he visibly impresses for a PL club.

His value will have soared and Brighton asked us for £50m for White. They know how to get their pound of flesh.

I like him a lot too for the record.

Spanishdave

We need to cover Tierney and Tommy as they are both crocks.
Get the Notts Forrest lad in he’s a baller.
Not sure about Teleimans,

Rich

WE

Agree that there’s a lack of top class strikers we could realistically sign.

We apparently went for Darwin Nunez in January after Vlahovic went to Juventus, but were told by Benfica that they would sell mid-season.

I have little idea about the player, obviously a big step up, and sounds like he’d cost an extortionate amount of money.

By the sound of it, there’s definitely some interest on our part, also a bit of noise around Tammy Abraham

WengerEagle

Yeah Spence looks quality, superb athlete too.

Could prob be got on the cheap if Forest don’t win the playoffs and get promoted.

TR7

WE

Yes a fair point.

Any player that makes in to or at least knocks on the door of Spanish national team invariably turns out to be good. We should always be scouting such players. Nacho Monreal for example we nabbed him early and he turned out to be a reliable player for years.

WengerEagle

Rich

Tammy has been very good for Roma, I would take him here for the right price. Hasn’t just scored goals but has led the line very well.

Would be a near guarantee for 15-20 PL goals in a team with some of our creative talent. I also think a LF is very important as Marti is like Greenwood imo and a future ST playing wide while ESR is best as a CAM.

TR7

Charlie and Sal strongly advocated we sign Abraham last summer. We missed a good opportunity there. Jesus not a bad choice though. He is solid if not spectacular.

WengerEagle

TR7

Nacho was a dream at LB. Maybe my favourite player during his spell here along with Koscielny and our best LB since Cole.

Tomi is basically our Nacho at RB but KT is a crock unfortunately and Tavares is a more in-shape Andre Santos so LB is a real issue.

WengerEagle

TR7

Would have been near impossible as Chelsea wouldn’t sell us used bog roll.

Now he is at Roma it is much more realistic and I am sure he would jump at the chance to come back to London and be the man up top.

TR7

I really like Martinelli but to be honest he has been disappointing the last few weeks. Leeds’ fullback were poor and that’s why he looked sharp today but he hasn’t really exploded the way many expected him to be. A bit predictable in his play and showing lack of nous.

Rich

WE

We’re linked with plenty of wide players, Gakpo, Diaby, Jesus, Raphina

I prefer Martinelli out wide, he was excellent today, I’m convinced the goals will come as a natural progression

Doesn’t bother me if Smith Rowe starts left or central, he can cover both positions

I suppose it’ll come down to what happens with Eddie, Laca, Pepe + Balogun

If all 4 leave, then we’ll need serious surgery

WengerEagle

Marti isn’t a wide player, has has looked his best by far when played as the ST. He isn’t super technically gifted and he is a bit scrappy and rough on the ball at times. Where he excels is his off-ball movement, his finishing (been lacking some confidence lately which is vital for a 20 year old) and having an eye for a team-mate and providing end product like the pass to Eddie today. He will get better I suspect in his technique as he has that grafter mentality and by all accounts he is a very good and professional… Read more »

Rich

Speaking of Gakpo, he’s currently on a hatrick away at Feyenoord with 25 minutes to go

WengerEagle

Rich

Balogun isn’t close to ready, he needs another loan.

Laca is gone and I would be amazed if Pepe were still here in September.

Leaves us with no natural wideman besides Saka and Nelson, the latter who is not at the standard we need.

I like some of those names, Raphina is the safest bet but he plays RW and Saka is amazing there and much better wide right than left. I think Diaby is also a lefty.

No idea on Gakpo but buying from Holland is always a risk.

Samesong

Been banging on about Spence for some time now. Lads gonna be playing in the prem shortly. And I know his mum.

LoveSausage

I don’t see Tammy leaving Roma this summer. Read the interview in the Athletic – he loves it there and has enjoyed playing for Mourinho. Nunez is probably the best option available in Europe. Osimhen seems to be available but he too would cost an arm and a leg. Maybe time for Edu to earn his paycheck and start scouting South America.

TR7

Both Sane and Gnabry unsettled at Bayern. I don’t think we can get better wide forwards than the two of them and we need just one.

andy1886

I like the idea of three at the back for the Spuds game. But rather Saka at RWB and Tomi or Tavares at LWB. Cedric really worries me, another poor game today, gives the ball away in dangerous positions and at the other end his final ball s poor.

WengerEagle

Funny that you mention Gnabry. I laughed off the idea last summer but Bayern have not looked as settled under Nagelsmann and lot of murmurs that Lewandowski wants out and he is somebody that is irreplaceable. Gnabry if you listen to him talk is practically a London lad and he didn’t leave the club on bad terms or with baggage. He would crack on really well with some of the London boys like Saka. He is somebody that I would dump Pepe money on without a moment’s hesitation if Bayern agreed to it as he would transform us. Absolutely battered… Read more »

WengerEagle

Samesong

Oh yeah? 😉

salparadisenyc

Stuttgart looking a lock to get relegated in the next 45, read various things on how this impacts the Mavro deal. One being he has option to return to Arsenal.

Not to mention Gnabry opening the scoring for Bayern, bring that boy home.

andy1886

WEagle, guess you mean old Pepe money because the current version is worth about £3.50.

Nigel Tufnel

Really nice to see people gushing in praise for ElNeny. I agree. I find it amazing how hard you have to stretch to ignore the fact that we’ve watched this guy Mo play for like 7 years.. and including myself, nobody wanted him to be more than a 5th choice midfielder. How am i the only one giving credit to Arteta and his system? It’s got him playing like Partey-lite as someone said. It’s very easy to be dishonest in which subjects people choose to mention or ignore (even Pedro). Arteta makes plenty of mistakes… but his development of players… Read more »

TheLegendaryDB10

The fact that Sp*rs have drawn and not lost to ‘pool is something to be wary of. It will have given them some confidence. It’s a derby and they will want to win at all costs. Conte will want to go all out and get these 3 points. We have the capability to counter attack them. I thought we were very effective and dangerous vs Chelski. Replicate that against the Spuds and we have a chance to scare them into their shell with a couple of goals. This victory will have really galvanised the lads. It’s not impossible to win… Read more »

Nigel Tufnel

I always wanted Sane. Monster talent.

Rich

I’d rather we signed a player on the way up, than an established superstar.

We should be looking at players 22-25 who have a decent amount of experience, young + hungry.

Maybe I’m just scarred, but after our recent experiences, I’m absolutely done with big names, big wages, and big egos

TheLegendaryDB10

 a risk.

Samesong @ 17:11:52

Been banging on about Spence for some time now. Lads gonna be playing in the prem shortly. And I know his mum

Will you be going into the side business of selling his autographs at a profit? 😉

On a more serious note, any links to some yt videos?