ZERO-SUM TARGETS + TOP 4 RACE UPDATES

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So the concentration is back on the Premier League race for top 4. This season is going to go down as one of the best in years. The League is still competitive between Liverpool and City. 3rd and 4th place look very much open to about 5 teams. The relegation battle is fully open as well.

Arsenal are in the mixer for the top 3. Yeah. I’m going to say top 3 because I don’t think Chelsea has been convincing this season and I suspect Tuchel needs a good Champions League run to justify his next major deal.

United slipped yesterday to Watford. As we’ve said many times this season, making top 4 is mostly down to doing well against the teams you are supposed to do well against. A point at Watford just isn’t cutting it right now. We should also factor that they might have a Champions League run in them, their players are toxic, but they love the big occasions, so you might see a dip in the league. Also… their March run is horrendous.

Arsenal has been doing well against so-called lesser sides this season and it’s just as well because 3 of the next 4 games coming up that are against sides you’d fancy us against. March is Watford, Liverpool, Leicester, and Villa. We’re at the stage now where slips are going to be costly. 3 wins is the expectation in those easier games. Liverpool is bonus ball territory, but as Johnny pointed out in the podcast, it really is about time we did something against them in the league. We’re good enough to do so if everyone is fit and the red cards don’t come out.

In an ideal world, you’d want to beat the lesser sides so the sting is taken out of the games against the sides that are tougher. You don’t want to have to go to The Bowl or beat Chelsea to make the top 4.

My view of the top 4 race is that we’re still not favorites, it doesn’t matter how excited you get about this run, United and Spurs have more experienced players. We have the youngest squad in the league, the youngest coach, you can’t pretend that doesn’t mean anything, regardless of how well they are playing, or how good the decisions have been of late. Spurs are 6 points behind us. We haven’t won the games in hand yet. It is going to be really, really difficult to deliver under the pressure.

… but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Again, we discuss the fearlessness of youth on the podcast. Sometimes a lack of experience means a lack of failure baggage. This team hasn’t achieved anything together, but at the same time, they’ve not had years of failing together to bog them down. Spurs have Spursiness, it’s part of their DNA. United players are thinking about futures beyond United this summer because there will be an almighty clear out at Old Trafford. West Ham just don’t look in great shape and their squad is mainly a group of older journeymen cobbled together that are overachieving.

There’s a bit of a tendency for people to create zero-sum scenarios when it comes to Arsenal. 8th place twice, instant sacking. Losing the semi of the Europa League, instant sacking. Losing the first three games of this season, instant sacking. Now we’re already seeing the rumbling of ‘no top 4 this season,’ instant sacking. It sounds good to chat like that because it makes people seem like they’re ruthless, but we’ve seen plenty of times how dumb that sort of approach has been.

Zero-sum management of a football club has seen two projects fail miserably.

Pochettino over at Spurs told Daniel Levy there would be a dip that they’d need to manage and a rebuild that would have to happen. The dip happened, the fans turned, Levy sacked the guy that had talent them to the Champions League because he couldn’t stomach the reality of the cycle that was predicted. He then hired a zero-sum manager, that failed. Now he’s on his 3rd manager since Pochettino, another zero-sum manager that is saying if he doesn’t get what he needs, he’ll walk. Spurs still have no philosophy, no strategy, and a slim hope of moving the club forward this season.

United had a similar issue, but it started with a transfer. They thought their was only one option last summer, to sign Ronaldo to stop City moving on him. He didn’t fit the profile of the project, he rattled the internal squad hierarchy, and he didn’t fit the modern system that had them in 2nd the season before. OGS suffered because of the chaos Ronaldo brought to United. He was sacked, then they hired Rangnick who wasn’t matched to anything they had been trying to do in the past. Looking back, was it fair to bin OGS for the club signing a nostalgia superstar? Who knows… but now they are rolling with a manager that isn’t right, potentially moving to a totally new system, because they didn’t have faith to look at the true root cause of their issues.

Top 6 is the target for Arsenal this season, anything extra is a bonus. We’re not in the race for top 4 because ‘everyone else is shit’ we’re there because we’ve been incredibly consistent this season and we deserve our place there. If we don’t hit the level this season, it’ll be because of experience, the lack of a functional striker, and maybe injuries. But we’ll have the platform, the players will have progressed massively, and we’ll have a culture that is perfectly set to absorb new bodies into it this summer. We can’t keep indulging the ‘I’m not convinced crowd’ because if you aren’t convinced by what you’re seeing now, you are too deeply entrenched in a weird agenda, or you just don’t get the game.

We have 13 cup finals left this season. Watford is the next. We’ve seen what can happen to teams with massive firepower. Arteta needs to make sure the players don’t fall into the same trap the United crew did yesterday.

Just a quick thought on Chelsea and football in general. Isn’t it amazing how fucked the moral compass is in the Premier League? You have Putin’s right credit card putting Chelsea into a trust to avoid UK sanctions, and sections of their fanbase celebrating his intelligence. You have clubs with human rights abusers as owners standing in solidarity with the people of Ukraine. Sky Sports have a journalist parrotting propaganda about Abramovich designed to confuse people. Honestly, how did we let money take us to this position? The idea that it was touch and go whether Russia could host the Champions League final tells you all you need to know. Grim, grim, grim.

Before I go, I wanted to wish Arseblog a happy 20th birthday. Writing about Arsenal every day, like he has, with so much quality and thought, with so much consistency… is an incredible achievement. His work inspired so many of us in the Arsenal creator community and he continues to set the benchmark for us all. If you get the chance, check out his 20 episode podcast series he pulled together, one for every year he’s been in commission. He invited me on to talk about 2018, a remarkable year for what happened and what did NOT happen. 

Then when you’re done with that, tune in to The Arsenal Opinion Podcast with me and Johnny. I am very hungover, but the content was good. 

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Positive pete

Gobbygooner et al.If we had a man manager? Really? “ laughing boy “ has been a problem at his last 3 clubs.I don’t need to go into an endless list of quotes with regards to his attitude & behaviour.It’s common knowledge.Ultimately it was displayed for us with us playing with 10 men on occasions.I wholly back Arteta & his approach with him.what I & others object to is the overhyping of players who’ve left our club & before anyone leaps on the Saliba bandwagon.He hasn’t left & nor will he.As for cult member hmmm.We appreciate what the current manager has… Read more »

Raulishuss

Iatbamford to raptora…. Misery loves company