Remember a few months ago a certain section of fans were losing their minds because our xG didn’t match to our Premier League position?

I wrote:

xG is a stat that is designed to give you a deeper understanding of results. Weaponising it when we’re 5th in the table isn’t sharp unless you have a good angle of attack, especially when context would say fans that actually go are very happy, and pundits were asking Arteta if Arsenal were a title threat before the Liverpool game.

Our start was brutal. We had a covid outbreak that wiped out 5 players, plus 4 injuries. We lost to Brentford, then had to play the European Cup finalists back to back. That was not good for xG. We deserved to lose, but there was context to those failings, and I think we’ve all accepted them now.

We’re 5th. Even after getting spanked by Liverpool this weekend.

We are 5th after our worst start in Premier League history. This position been earned.

We are 5th after reengineering our starting 11 with 6 players under the age of 24. These players have had 9 games together.

We are 5th after playing Manchester City and Liverpool away from home.

The xG sample size is small, it lacks context, and the eye test isn’t really telling us the things the Emery eye test was.

So now things have settled on our season, Arsenal is 55% into it… where does the xG have us now?

via Scott @OhThatCrab

We are where we should be based on the context of the season, where we are in the table, and the eye test.

We are not better than City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. Three clubs that are mainstays of the Champions League latter stages and always in contention for the title.

… but we are no deservedly in the mix for top 4. We’re most tightly huddled in that table with Spurs and West Ham… United are not far behind.

Those three games at the start of the season, which hurt our xG badly, still hurt us, but even with those moments included, we’re extremely competitive.

Let’s be more specific, since the first international break Arsenal is 4th for points (4 points behind CFC with 3 games in hand). 4th for goals scored. We have the 3rd best defence (Wolves and City better us by 3 goals). We have to keep it going, but anyone telling you we aren’t improving is a little too wrapped in their own agenda to notice how things are really going.

The action continues against Wolves. As you can see from their table, their issue is Arsenal in the first season under Arteta. A great defence combined with a poor attacking output. No doubt they’ll score three past us on Thursday.

Our weakness has widely been considered to be the attack. To some degree that is true, but really, when you look at it on paper, it’s not a debilitating issue like some make it out. We’re within 3 goals of a United team dripping in attacking players, they’ve played 2 more games than us. We’ve scored more than Spurs. West Ham has 9 more goals than us, but they’ve also played 3 more games.

Could our attacking output be better? Absolutely. But there’s also the context of the striking issues we’ve had this season. The underlying mechanics of how we play was a problem last season, not so much this one. 3rd most shots attempted in the Premier league. 4th most shots on target in the Premier League. If you keep that level of output up with a young team, eventually the goals should follow.

Arteta spoke in his prematch presser and he was bullish.

He said he was the solution, alluding to Auba being the problem.

He was adamant that there wasn’t an option to strengthen with a player that would have improved us.

He was bullish on the players he has to work with.

‘I trust my players’

He also seemed pleased with the midseason break. The players are focused, the spirit is good, and we’ve worked on things we need to improve on.

As my good friend Alfred said, we have all the ingredients for siege mentality.

Everyone in the squad counts. The odds are stacked against us. There is unity in the squad. Each week is a cup final.

That’s exciting. Best case scenario we make the Champions League. Worst case, these players experience something very new and it builds out Arsenal IP for next season.

Right, short one today, jump into our podcast, and really enjoy it hard.