I would normally do a riposte article to the xG counter-argument that went off yesterday… but there wasn’t need for one, I think most people seemed pretty fine with the reality of our messy data this season.
There were two common comebacks.
‘You just don’t like data that doesn’t align with the project’
MOST IMPORTANT METRIC: 5th in the league.
‘Stop manipulating data to suit your agenda’
MOST CLEAN METRIC I HAVE: 5th in the league.
You can get angry that I put some context on the xG, but the most important metric right now is that we are 5th in the league. If you’re using data to delegitimize a young team doing really well under tough circumstances, may I show you a delightful bin you can get in.
Some other interesting metrics.
We’re averagely conceding 12.77 attempts at our goal per game with the new defence, with 4.2 shots per game on target. Skewed quite heavily by bad days at Brighton and Liverpool away. Plenty of work to do there, Chelsea and Liverpool are conceding 9.7… City, and incredible 6.3. But, not bad considering the newness of the defence.
To be honest, I actually thought the most interesting splicing on data was the table since the new team started.
5th for goals scored.
3rd best defensive record.
Joint 2nd for points accrued.
That is quite spectacular when you consider:
1) It was basically 6 new players.
2) They were all under the age of 24.
3) The mood around the club was absolutely grim.
HARSH REALITY
Our attack really needs to kick up a gear. There’s no denying that.
There are two ways that is going to happen.
1.Auba is going to click with the system and start getting into the right positions. Arteta can gamble on the 2018-19 superstar coming back to his best. He’s said a few times that the goals will come. How long will he hold out? Things are so bad, he’s even missing penalties this season.
2.Arteta is going to try something different.
The Liverpool game showed the way for other teams. Lacazette dropping deep has been a huge part of our resurgence over the the last 3 months. His 95th minute goal saved a point against Palace and after that, we never looked back. He set the tone for aggression, his confidence and experienced allowed for him to seamlessly link defence to attack, and he made a difference.
Liverpool sussed that at the weekend and we didn’t really have an answer.
Is it time for something different?
We haven’t seen much of Martin Odegaard this season, the form of an older head playing for his future has been too much for the Norwegian. He’s not a sulker though and he is more than capable of opening up teams on his best days. Could he be used to make us a bit less predictable in build up play over the next month?
Nico has been sat on the bench, for good reason, but it’s hard to deny that on his day, he also offers us something we’re lacking: Final ball and finishing. He always delivers good numbers, even if he is generally very inconsistent and infuriating. He was nothing at the start of last season, then he came back into contention hard. He’s also not a sulker, he works hard, can we roll the dice on him again?
Gabriel Martinelli has been poor this season. He’s been given chances. He hasn’t taken them. But we know there’s a player there. Every young player goes through a slump. It’s about time he came out of his. What can he offer to our attack? He’s a relentless presser of the ball, even though we haven’t seen much of that in the last 6 months. Can he find that spark? Can he work with this team? Can he be the tip of our spear we lack?
There are two other options.
Eddie, who I thought was exceptional during the preseason games, but hasn’t been given much in the way of love. He’s not a fan of Arteta, I’m pretty sure he’s signaled he won’t do a deal, so the club might be resigned to losing him in January. Could we use his newfound confidence? Would it be worth a go?
Folarin Balogun has been in rip-roaring form in the U23s. His attitude has been so good. The horror show against Brentford cannot be laid squarely at his feet, he had no prep for that game either. Is there something he could do? Does he have the power? Is there an ESR moment for him?
December is the month for heroes. Last season, Smith Rowe broke the first team and never looked back. He did it against Chelsea. He showed the doubters what he was all about and now he’s an England player.
Who wants to be a hero this month? December is going to need the full squad. We play Newcastle (H) on Saturday, then we’re up against United (A) on the Thursday, followed by Everton (A) on then Monday. There will be minutes going around. Who will get them? Who will make a statement with them? How will this young squad deal with a 3 game week?
First, we have to deal with Eddie Howe taking to the dugout for the first time in his second game. He has a helluva job to do there. He has Steve Bruce players which don’t map to his system at all. The one thing they have going in their favor is that all of those players want to be there for the dazzling riches that are coming their way. It’s a big game for us. Will we be on our knees feeling sorry for ourselves like teams of the past? Or do we have the minerals to deal with disappointment?
We shall see…
We’re recording a podcast this afternoon, stay tuned to your phone for that when it drops, because it’ll be a damn cracker let me tell you.
BUT, before you listen to that, may I invite you to jump in on our latest after the Liverpool game. Matt and Pedro chatting the Liverpool game. We hope you enjoy it. x
ACAST | SPOTIFY | GOOGLE | CASTBOX
Graham
Has Le Grove’s answer to Citizen Kane been cutting your stuff again?
Pedro
Why are you so frequently threatening sitegoers with the bin? You are doing it in the comments and now you’re doing it in your posts.
Here’s the latest:
‘If you’re using data to delegitimize a young team doing really well under tough circumstances, may I show you a delightful bin you can get in’
How does it feel to become what you used to criticize?
Someone should be binned for abusive and/or hateful language or constant trolling, except you just shifted the definition of trolling to a wide range of comments that don’t fit your beliefs on the club. Really disappointed in how dictatorial you’ve become. Your site, your rules but it doesn’t make it any less offensive.
Pierre
Arteta is beyond reproach as far as his disciples are concerned.
I’m with you when it comes to the youngsters.
Kroenkephobe
Yes, it happens every so often.
Why is that?
Ronaldo just scoring his 14,000,000,000th CL goal
Tom
That’s as maybe, but I don’t think he’s ever netted against the mighty Dundalk.
😭 (a crying man with an orange face #1 emoticon to depict Ronaldo…)
I’m even finding the podcasts annoying.
It’s like a frigging cult.
Is Arteta standing behind the camera holding the cue cards?
Pierre The disappointment with Eddie is that he was looking so good pre-season. It wasn’t just his play but his physical development. I can understand the dilemma Arsenal face here, but with Laca leaving this summer and Auba hopefully out next summer, it would be nice if there was a place for both Nketiah and Balogun in the squad. Of course, it’s not an exact science. Some young players have left the club and done very little and we’ve been Gnabried on occasion too. Not blaming the club here but hoping that it won’t come back to bite us. As… Read more »
Graham
You sound like a wanker. Pedro makes content that encompasses his views on Arsenal, you’re detracting his pov as if he’s done you a personal injustice by putting it on the internet for public consumption.
Graham62
The podcasts have generally been good but when Johnny’s not there the balance is gone.
As for the binning, Pedro’s removing comments and posters for saying pretty much what Football365 wrote in this recent article. I don’t happen to agree with many of the opinions in the article, but it’s a fair point of view. Pedro would say ‘I’m not having it’ and bin the poster who wrote a comment like this one below.
https://www.football365.com/news/opinion-arsenal-crash-back-down-earth-liverpool-arteta-wenger
‘you’re detracting his pov’
who sounds like a wanker?
“who sounds like a wanker?“
Graham, it’s right there.
CC
You’re a good poster but you can’t say someone sounds like a wanker and then follow it up with ‘you’re detracting his pov’ 🙂
Bacary
Want to walk me through that one?
Great to have you back CC.
Protect your buddies.
Good for you.
“Pedro has been making content that encompasses his views” You are 100% correct, however, he has also been belittling and binning those that don’t agree with him.
By doing that he will get what he deserves.
Keep up the good work though, I’m sure Pedro appreciates it.
Graham, you have to ask why you are here every day hating on Arsenal and the website? It’s really boring.
‘He deletes comments that disagree’
Say two people that disagree every day.
Why do you come here if it offends you so much?
Scroll through the last 30 comments.
Who do I share views with? 2 people.
‘It’s a cult on here’ is debased from reality. Like asking for the manager to be fired who sits in 5th.
Great pod with Colin Lewin here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QHFmaizz-Y
Chelsea are making Juventus look like us vs Liverpool. Their wingbacks are something else.
James is now the best right back. He matches TAA’s attack and is also solid in defense.
Graham Nothing to do with protecting buddies. The bit you fail to grasp is that Pedro is well within his rights to govern what tone he deems acceptable on his platform about Arsenal. It’s not the unregulated safe space for incels that you would like it to more accurately depict. On the subject of bans, can you please tell me explicitly who got banned for what? Because frivolous banning hasn’t ever been a theme here; and I’d wager, just like my good pal Banford, that it’s a line of criticism being thrown out there without basis because it’s easy to… Read more »
CC
Pedro said that he bans Marc and Marko. I would like to see them back.
Nelson, I very rarely ban people. You can read the rules. This site has a huge comment section because I make sure toxic behaviour doesn’t take hold… and that it feels like Arsenal fans chatting to each other.
Andy,
Context + eye test + xG
I love xG. I just think it’s being used badly here.
https://www.crabstats.xyz/the-trouble-with-trying-to-determine-how-good-arsenal-are/
Above article is great. Data is messy. Nothing is conclusive. All in line with a young team new to each other.
Next 9 games massive.
But overall, 5th considering the season, is pretty decent.
I love the context + eye test + xg bullshit like there was no eye test in any match previous to Norwich. And no context whatsoever for Emery.
These posts have been so hard to stomach for the pure fact you are using the same metrics to spin the exact opposite outcome, just attached “context and eye test” in there.
Middy was correct. Advertising isn’t your strongest suit. It’s PR. You are incredible with the way you can talk shit yet still have people nodding along
Been a while since I watched Juve. They look like a rebuild job.
That midfield of Locatelli, McKennie and Rabiot looks bang average. Plus Morata on top…
But yes. If Arteta can maintain the results with those xg numbers and be in and around 5th/6th at seasons end, tets for me will have earned another shot at it. But after the last few seasons, he still has a lot to show me in terms of his management ability. 5th after a good run against some average opposition (tots in disarray but that win was splendid, and lcfc aren’t poor) should be his par to be honest. Or is he just going to improve to be a flat track bully yet still get outmaneuvered by the big boys… Read more »
Lovesausage I watched that Juve V Chelsea game and the difference in quality was staggering Three academy players scored for them and as I said yesterday what a player James is. For me you see just how to blend youth with experience and Silva at 37 is still one hellava player. What is a worry is that Loftus and Hudson-Odoi seem to be recovering from their injuries. The strength, power and pace of Loftus is staggering. He it seems was available in close season Palace had first refusal at £25 million but it didn’t happen. He would have been a… Read more »
Terraloon,
It’s hugely impressive how they have developed those players you mention. A year or two ago, you’d never have guessed that they would be on this level.
Over at Juventus, you can see how quickly it can go in the other direction. Remember when Rabiot was the hot shit? Look at him now. Wouldn’t take him on a free transfer.
Goober, please.
Firstly, there was loads of context for Unai Emery.
Secondly, the xG story came true.
Thirdly, he didn’t get the new contract because of his numbers
I am very sorry it’s hard for you to stomach the reality of data and the fact different scenarios have different conclusions.
So weird to me how many people need this weird rigid consistency, even if it makes no sense.
LS
Do you see any way that Chelsea can fit Gallagher and Gilmour in ?
As for Juve they were made to look second rate and I am not too sure that they are but as you say Rabiot looked awful but it wasn’t just him others
Terraloon,
Hard to see those two getting a proper chance when the team is such a well oiled machine. But Chelsea are really good at loan management so I’m sure they’ll get a chance to develop.
Love S
My brother is convinced that Barkley, Saul and Kante will be on their way come the summer to make way for those two. I can see the first two going but Kante I don’t know
Pedro.
You know exactly why.
Arteta looks to be taking us on a better trajectory than Emery I’ll give him that, but only this season.
If our numbers aren’t sustainable like you said they weren’t under Emery, then what are you going to say? I already know it’s going to absolve a bang average Arteta if that is the case.
I’m an arsenal fan that doesn’t think the right man is in charge. I don’t think my fandom; or my intelligence for that matter, should be called into question.
We’ve gone from an attacking side that can’t defend under Emery to a defensive side that can’t attack under Arteta.
So yes, different scenarios, same weak Arsenal
‘Most important metric: 5th in the league’
‘Cleanest metric: 5th in the league’
Isn’t that the position Emery was in when he got sacked?
When we came 8th last season the most important metric you had was the Christmas tree table.
Pedro honestly speaking I would just avoid such stats because they’re far too easy to pull apart and use against you. You made that bed years ago so if you’re going to go down this route you’re going to need to lie in that bed. Easier to just focus on something else.
Tom “Arteta wasted a year not because he went for experience, he wasted it because he didn’t get the right players with experience.” As i said yesterday, I’m all for experience if the players are right. At present , our experience players are xhaka, Aubamayang, Elneny, cedric, Mari, Lacazette and Partey. Partey will probably be the only experienced player starting for Arsenal next season , which tells you everything. As we are now on project youth, will Arteta sign experienced players in january or the summer, highly unlikely due to previous mistakes ….willian , mari cedric and new contracts to… Read more »
Pepe back to Lille for Jonathon David. Anyone like that move? I’m not sure we can get anyone to pay $35 Mil for him.
My word I have the misery crew on board today.
‘Isn’t this the same as Emery’
China, no. How clear could I be on this? How obvious is it to look at?
Br0wnie… would be nice, but no chance. Gotta pray Milan take Pepe off our hands!
Pierre, you are totally right on one thing: project youth all the way.
We are not where we were when Wenger left at all. Thankfully.
Pierre the experienced players did nothing vs liverpool as has been a recurring theme for years now. Meanwhile in most or all of our best wins against top teams in the last few years the kids did play well
Saka martinelli and esr not only saved artetas job but did a number on Chelsea
Pedro, please.
By all means tell us we’re better because we can see that with our own eyes. Liverpool aside there is progress.
But the moment you say 5th matters most and xG doesn’t count it becomes like a parody
China, it is spectacular how you can be wrong so consistently.
‘what about Emery’
My word. Always the same with you.
Also, for the record, I didn’t say xG didn’t matter. I just said the people interpreting it are shite with data.
PedroNovember 24, 2021 01:22:48
China, it is spectacular how you can be wrong so consistently.‘what about Emery’My word. Always the same with you.Also, for the record, I didn’t say xG didn’t matter.
I just said the people interpreting it are shite with data.
———–
Peds
Just wondering are you a qualified statistician?Or a qualified data statistician/data scientist?
Just asking by the way.
PHD, my early career was in consultancy analyzing supply chain data, then I moved into advertising with a strong data component working in performance marketing for 4 years.
Yes, I’m qualified in data and it earned me my living in my early career.
PedroNovember 24, 2021 01:51:22
PHD, my early career was in consultancy analyzing supply chain data, then I moved into advertising with a strong data component working in performance marketing for 4 years.Yes, I’m qualified in data and it earned me my living in my early career.
——
Much kudos to you..And I appreciate your career to date and the passion and resolve you show for writing this blog.
Without taking away your industrial experience in consultancy and advertising-which accounts for a lot,no doubt.
But my question still remains-are you a qualified statistician?
Again,just asking.
For those belittling Pedro for not backing Emery when he was stalling around 5th, may I suggest a measure of introspection is needed. Emery needed to go after he lost the UEFA Europa League Final to Chelsea (no, let me rephrase that he was humiliated by Chelsea). For whatever reason, only known to the board, Emery was kept on until the following December. He needed to go because he had no plan and no vision. The players looked like they were going through the motions. We looked like we were treading water. Was he treated unfairly? Maybe. Could the board… Read more »
PHD,
It’s 2021 my friend, ‘statistician’ is quite a dated label, and incredibly broad.
I was an analyst.
What do you mean by statistician?
Leeds,
Exactly right…
xG + Context (your comment) + eye test (lucky / awful football)
Which part of what I said was wrong? That you used to say 5th in the table (or 4th under wenger) was unacceptable when things like xG suggested a correction incoming? And that you now say 5th is what counts and there will not be any xG corrections incoming? Nope. Straight fact. No matter how confidently you say it, people here remember what you’ve said. We’re not new on this site. You can spin all you like in advertising as that’s the nature of the job but saying one thing today and tomorrow saying the opposite and just being like… Read more »
How can the players demonstrate to us that they back Arteta’s vision?
Go and defeat Newcastle comprehensively.
Go and grab three points versus Man United.
Go and ground out a win and we face Everton.
If we do that, this loss becomes manageable; because this season everyone is dropping points unexpectedly.
China,
Read Leeds comment for clarification and don’t try and rewrite the full 360 I did on Emery. It was always Context + Eye Test + xG.
Leeds, borrowing your comment on Emery for tomorrow. That ok?
*when
I’m curious if anyone can even quantify how xG is calculated and how goal scoring chances are objectively calculated considering what defines a goal scoring chance is entirely subjective anyway. xG like most of these stats are full of dubious grey area and subjectivity. I’ve said that since forever. Eye test is what counts and a few stats can only support that analysis not replace it. So yes xG analysis is largely bunk for arteta. And it was for Emery too. Emery failed the eye test from the second half of his first season onwards and arteta ranked the eye… Read more »
No Pedro during Emery’s long unbeaten run we were shutting up shop defensively, putting in battling performances and winning games by taking one or two chances.
And you were yelling from the roof tops about xG corrections incoming even when we were literally winning.
Please please don’t assume we have the memory of a goldfish.
We can bag on Emery for days from the second half of that season up until he got sacked and rightly so. But you were throwing xG daggers at him when he was doing legitimately well in the early days.
Pedro
Not a problem.
As you know, I’ve been a severe critic of Arteta from the beginning but I think the shift for me is this summer.
There comes a point when we have to step back from the narrative and look at the actual evidence in front of you.
Arteta is changing the culture of the club. That is why I’m backing him.
Yes, he will make mistakes but as long as he learns from them, I’m happy to see how this story finishes.
Lol, China, we were getting ripped through the middle and getting lucky.
You reimagined the run. Remember, you lost this argument… Emery was sacked. There’s no nuance around it. He was shite and should have been removed in the summer.
China,
Not sure which games you were watching under Emery but we were under siege pretty much every game. We had no midfield to stop the counter, it was a free for all.
I’m not convinced by this managing the game narrative – I feel we were lucky to escape against both Spuds and Leicester after we gave up all initiative. But the fact that we did escape is explained at least partly by a defensive solidity that just wasn’t there under Emery. I mean, we had Mustafi as a starter. If that doesn’t tell you everything…
Pedro and his book of excuses.
Not buying into the Arteta revolution until there is one.
Simple as that.
Judgement day is 27 Feb for me.
Pedro we were a good team in the unbeaten run. We then drifted to average and then desperately poor by the end of his tenure
The winning streak was a good one
Things I wish Arteta would change starting tomorrow: 1. Find a role for Martinelli and Balogun. They are the future – Auba and Laca are the past. I’m not saying that Martinelli and Balogun are starters but they deserve more game time… and if it works it might save us millions. It might also convince Nketiah to sign his extension , when he sees youth being given more time. 2. Figure out a new partner for Partey. He can’t do this role by himself. No, in the long run, Xhaka isn’t the answer. 3. Bring back Bruno the amazing physio.… Read more »
Personally I don’t see that Pepe will make it. I’ve blamed Emery and arteta for managing him poorly but sooner or later I would’ve hoped for more out of him and it’s now been years
If we sell him he needs replacing with quality, but as it stands I’d take 25-30m for him or a direct swap for a player who can walk into our first team in any of CM/CF/Wing positions
PedroNovember 24, 2021 02:17:03 It’s 2021 my friend, ‘statistician’ is quite a dated label, and incredibly broad.I was an analyst. What do you mean by statistician? ——- I might be wrong,but I stand corrected.Within the UK- as a qualified or certified statistician albeit through an Institute or through an accredited degree program with some prerequisite statistical module components at graduate /postgraduate level or a professional program,one can see fit to declare themselves as a ‘Statistician.’ If it’s aligned with significant,approved industry experience(optional) or a stand alone industry experience that is significant in years- certainly helps. Either way,you are given the… Read more »
China,
It’s over my friend. We were lucky during the run, because we all saw it… then it came unstuck. It’s not a point of debate now, it’s just part of history.
Tony,
You said the most important thing in football was the table. So we are in agreement that what is going on now is good.
The 27th of Feb is your date, but for me, the most important future date is Jan 2nd. That’s when we’ll know if we’re in properly in a fight.
PHD,
What you are asking is still really garbled.
I’ve worked extensively in data for blue-chip organizations as a consultant.
I’ve set up insights and analytics teams at performance advertising agencies.
I’m grounded in the fundamentals of supply chain data and digital advertising data.
I’ve been paid as a professional in both.
Leeds, Bruno was an absolute dumpster fire of a physio. He was sacked because he was terrible.
“You said the most important thing in football was the table. So we are in agreement that what is going on now is good.’ Totally agree and if we keep with the pace in a tough period and late Feb we’re still in the hunt for 4th I’m ok about it. Arteta seems to get things wrong against top 4 at least. That and pressure games as the 2 semis with Emery. Saturday’s loss told us more about Arteta than the young squad capitulated. Too many why questions for me I was questioning before the game. Pedro in case you’re… Read more »
Working with data and statistical modelling are two different things Peds.
Tony,
Losing to Liverpool didn’t tell us more about Arteta than the young (YOUNG) team we have.
It told us we have a young team that needs to learn.
There was no managerial magic that was saving that game. They are the most devastating team in the league by a margin.
Any future date we’re doing well by is a good thing. It’s normal to assess where we are based in the context,
We’re 5th.
Doing well.
Hopefully about to nail December.
No need to be calling for firings or saying the manager is shit.
PHD, I’ve been paid to interpret data for a large chunk of my career. I’m more than capable of analysing a bit of xG data, which, let’s be honest, is one of the more basic metrics invented by company to sell data tools.
PedroNovember 24, 2021 04:02:42
I’ve been paid to interpret data for a large chunk of my career.
————-
Thank you Peds..
We finally got to the point.You interpret data.
I appreciate that comment.
How’s life with you in general?
PhD, tough times at the moment. But hopefully, corners are turning.
How is life for you, what’s the plan for the holiday season?
Pedro can you tell me what an expected goal is. Genuinely wondering
China, I’m sure it’s quicker to google
PedroNovember 24, 2021 04:12:59
tough times at the moment. But hopefully, corners are turning.How is life for you, what’s the plan for the holiday season?
———-
Why so?
It does appear recently that you are coming across a bit edgy..But I guess the year has been a bit tough on a few people(perhaps a slight underestimation of the numbers) maybe,which is perfectly understandable.
Well keep the faith..
As for me,I’m ok.It is what it is.Looking forward to the end of the year to be honest.And we go from there.
Pedro lol that mistakes from the kids are because they’re inexperienced but mistakes from the manager simply didn’t happen apparently Issues arteta contributed to which we can say with the benefit of hindsight 1) choosing Tavares over Tierney. Most of us agreed with the call (myself included) but it turned out wrong. 2) not taking Tavares off when we could see the kid was falling off a cliff early in the second half 3) an offensive strategy in the first half that just consisted of passing to Saka which clearly was not working. One of the few times we went… Read more »
“Hopefully about to nail December.”
Busy family day today Pedro so we can agree on the above and move forward.
China, It’s easy to label mistakes after a game, but let’s be real, Liverpool are monsters. An unfit Tierney, Pepe, and AMN are the literal alternatives, but it’s a stretch to suggest they are changing things in a game like that. Especially the handbags with Klopp, it was such a non-event. It’s not really analysis, you are just saying what the opposite of every decision was on the night, claiming that would have changed things. As for the handbags, please. People have spent the last year calling Arteta a meek cone boy. He has a bit of a ruck with… Read more »
I just did Pedro and I’m pretty shocked how simplistic it is 0.1x # of shots = xG Jesus I thought they were basing it on some serious underlying data not a 2 point equation LOL So if you take loads of hopeful long shots each game or hopeful efforts from circumstances when it’s really not on, your xG flies up. Meanwhile if you don’t take many shots but you’re getting 4 1v1 chances per game you might have low xG because you didn’t take many shots And this right here is why such stats should be kept at arms… Read more »
PHD, amen to that. I’m going to be in London in December. Can’t wait to take in some games and soak up a bit of London at its best.
Right, that’s me over for the night, a pleasure chatting to you all. Have a good one and make sure you take in some of that Colin Lewin pod. He’s a top, top talent.
Pedro yep it’s absolutely easy to criticize with hindsight but isn’t that what a post match analysis is? I don’t recall you pulling punches in post match analysis in games where we did badly under managers you didn’t like Re the handbags point, it’s not about the scrap. I didn’t mind it as much as most. But it was dumb to rile up the kop. Rio Ferdinand highlighted this as well that the last thing you want to do at anfield is get the crowd baying. He did that. Some of the issues above were understandable at the time (Tavares… Read more »
A progressive pass is any pass that starts in your half and successfully reaches a team mate in the other
And xG is just 0.1 x # of shots
For all you stat monsters out there I hope you see how lightweight these kinds of stats are
Lol this means if in one game you defend for 80 mins but in the last 10 mins you get a couple of one on ones as the opposition tires – you get tackled by the keeper as you try to take him on for the first one and for the second chance you do an ozil style lay off for a team mate to tap in but he does a welbeck and faceplants into the goal, not even touching the ball – in this case your xG is a stone cold 0.00 despite having two glorious chances you’d be… Read more »
K’phobe re your music suggestion with my old friend recently, I’d just got the Alan Parson’s Project rare live concert, so we watched that and some excerpts from 7 live concert videos of Rolling Stones I’ve got and then finishing watching videos with the latest Floyd Delicate Sound of Thunder tour Blu-ray.
Then switched to the latest playlist I’ve been compiling while chatting.
‘He made some mistakes prior to the game and he made some mistakes during the game. That’s the reality. I’m happy to move on from the pool game as our overall form is good these days – but I don’t agree with whitewashing blame from the manager for a game in which he’s clearly made several mistakes’
Pedro does like changing the narrative away from anything that even mildly questions Arteta.
The table will keep things honest.
Pink Floyd always had the best names
Delicate sound of thunder
Pulse
The wall
Dark side of the moon
Animals (their most underrated album!)
A momentary lapse of reason
The division bell
And so on
“Villarreal, managed by ex-Arsenal boss Unai Emery, are 12th in La Liga, having only won three of 13 domestic league matches, but were the better side in the first half and start of the second.“
China Alan Parsons was the engineer for Dark Side of the Moon and ass engineer one Sgt Peppers. Has a great pedigree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4HI1_LTWIk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgY7qYaoMWQ
Not to everyone’s tastes especially the first album The tales and Mysteries of Edge Allan Poe
China your not interpreting XG correctly .. It is simplistic but not like your saying.. XG assigns a value for chance of scoring based on factors like distance from goal and ease of chance. So if a player would normally score the chance 10 out of 10 times.. he gets an xg score of 1. If the shot he takes he would have scored 1 out of 10 times he would get an xg score of .1 if he would have scored 2 out of ten times then he gets an xg score of .2 and so on and then… Read more »
There is a player at Benfica who could fit nicely in at Arsenal .Nr. 10 J. Mario a midfielder
similar to Bissuma. and then there is Haaland
Another example would be a team takes 4 shots in a game. The first one has a 2 out of 10 chance of scoring. or .2 the second a 5 out of 10 chance of scoring or .5 The third shot a 3 out of 10 likelyhood of scoring or .3 the last one a 9 out of 10 chance of scoring..or.9 The final XG number would be 1.9 .2 + .5 + .3 + .9. or nearly 2 goals. Clearly the more shots you take increases your likelyhood of scoring but also the difficulty of scoring is factored in… Read more »
By the way Im not a stats nerd.. so XG to me is kind of pointless. As last time I checked actual goals are what counts. But it does make sense mathematically because it does factor in difficulty of each shot. People have been doing this for years… You hear it all the time … he would have scored that shot 9 out of 10 times or that was a great shot he would have only scored that 2 out of 10 times. XG just tries to quantify all that in one number.
Like you Midi I’m not one for the stats but thanks for the explanation.
When XG first was being discussed in depth on here a few years ago .. I had to look it all up so I could see what the hell people were talking about mostly. Anyhow.. I was just taking a break by reading through Le Grove to get away from my brother the Chelsea fan who is visiting so I can’t hear him talking about their 4-0 win today against Juventus over and over and us not being in the CL anymore. I figure its bad form to punch out your brother the day before a holiday.. 😀
That comment from leeds, while true does not reflect the reality that is getting on peoples’ nerves.
What Leeds failed to mention is that the xg stats Pedro was peddling for Emery were in the middle of his 22 unbeaten run. Not after our dismal end to the season. Not after our loss in EL final.
So Pedro, go and post it up on the next blog, but you’re just rewriting your own history and skipping past the events being questioned.
China
“but he does a welbeck and faceplants into the goal, not even touching the ball – in this case your xG is a stone cold 0.00 despite having two glorious chances you’d be expected to score”
Hahaha that whole comment was hilarious