I would normally do a riposte article to the xG counter-argument that went off yesterday… but there wasn’t need for one, I think most people seemed pretty fine with the reality of our messy data this season.
There were two common comebacks.
‘You just don’t like data that doesn’t align with the project’
MOST IMPORTANT METRIC: 5th in the league.
‘Stop manipulating data to suit your agenda’
MOST CLEAN METRIC I HAVE: 5th in the league.
You can get angry that I put some context on the xG, but the most important metric right now is that we are 5th in the league. If you’re using data to delegitimize a young team doing really well under tough circumstances, may I show you a delightful bin you can get in.
Some other interesting metrics.
We’re averagely conceding 12.77 attempts at our goal per game with the new defence, with 4.2 shots per game on target. Skewed quite heavily by bad days at Brighton and Liverpool away. Plenty of work to do there, Chelsea and Liverpool are conceding 9.7… City, and incredible 6.3. But, not bad considering the newness of the defence.
To be honest, I actually thought the most interesting splicing on data was the table since the new team started.
5th for goals scored.
3rd best defensive record.
Joint 2nd for points accrued.
That is quite spectacular when you consider:
1) It was basically 6 new players.
2) They were all under the age of 24.
3) The mood around the club was absolutely grim.
HARSH REALITY
Our attack really needs to kick up a gear. There’s no denying that.
There are two ways that is going to happen.
1.Auba is going to click with the system and start getting into the right positions. Arteta can gamble on the 2018-19 superstar coming back to his best. He’s said a few times that the goals will come. How long will he hold out? Things are so bad, he’s even missing penalties this season.
2.Arteta is going to try something different.
The Liverpool game showed the way for other teams. Lacazette dropping deep has been a huge part of our resurgence over the the last 3 months. His 95th minute goal saved a point against Palace and after that, we never looked back. He set the tone for aggression, his confidence and experienced allowed for him to seamlessly link defence to attack, and he made a difference.
Liverpool sussed that at the weekend and we didn’t really have an answer.
Is it time for something different?
We haven’t seen much of Martin Odegaard this season, the form of an older head playing for his future has been too much for the Norwegian. He’s not a sulker though and he is more than capable of opening up teams on his best days. Could he be used to make us a bit less predictable in build up play over the next month?
Nico has been sat on the bench, for good reason, but it’s hard to deny that on his day, he also offers us something we’re lacking: Final ball and finishing. He always delivers good numbers, even if he is generally very inconsistent and infuriating. He was nothing at the start of last season, then he came back into contention hard. He’s also not a sulker, he works hard, can we roll the dice on him again?
Gabriel Martinelli has been poor this season. He’s been given chances. He hasn’t taken them. But we know there’s a player there. Every young player goes through a slump. It’s about time he came out of his. What can he offer to our attack? He’s a relentless presser of the ball, even though we haven’t seen much of that in the last 6 months. Can he find that spark? Can he work with this team? Can he be the tip of our spear we lack?
There are two other options.
Eddie, who I thought was exceptional during the preseason games, but hasn’t been given much in the way of love. He’s not a fan of Arteta, I’m pretty sure he’s signaled he won’t do a deal, so the club might be resigned to losing him in January. Could we use his newfound confidence? Would it be worth a go?
Folarin Balogun has been in rip-roaring form in the U23s. His attitude has been so good. The horror show against Brentford cannot be laid squarely at his feet, he had no prep for that game either. Is there something he could do? Does he have the power? Is there an ESR moment for him?
December is the month for heroes. Last season, Smith Rowe broke the first team and never looked back. He did it against Chelsea. He showed the doubters what he was all about and now he’s an England player.
Who wants to be a hero this month? December is going to need the full squad. We play Newcastle (H) on Saturday, then we’re up against United (A) on the Thursday, followed by Everton (A) on then Monday. There will be minutes going around. Who will get them? Who will make a statement with them? How will this young squad deal with a 3 game week?
First, we have to deal with Eddie Howe taking to the dugout for the first time in his second game. He has a helluva job to do there. He has Steve Bruce players which don’t map to his system at all. The one thing they have going in their favor is that all of those players want to be there for the dazzling riches that are coming their way. It’s a big game for us. Will we be on our knees feeling sorry for ourselves like teams of the past? Or do we have the minerals to deal with disappointment?
We shall see…
We’re recording a podcast this afternoon, stay tuned to your phone for that when it drops, because it’ll be a damn cracker let me tell you.
BUT, before you listen to that, may I invite you to jump in on our latest after the Liverpool game. Matt and Pedro chatting the Liverpool game. We hope you enjoy it. x
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. “But it does make sense mathematically because it does factor in difficulty of each shot. People have been doing this for years… You hear it all the time … he would have scored that shot 9 out of 10 times or that was a great shot he would have only scored that 2 out of 10 times. XG just tries to quantify all that in one number.“
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Arsenal average 0.08 xG per shot, ranking them 16th in the PL.
Which is more telling than the number of shots they take per game.
I completely agree, I fed up with people using Xg stats or chances created/not created. The most important thing to consider is actual goals that actually win you games. I don’t care if our Xg is -1, that doesn’t mean we won’t score it has no relevance. Xg not only relys on the players to create but the players who are potentially scoring to get in positions to have a chance and to take their chances when they come. The issues, which the the author has hit the nail on the head is our strike force itself. Not the tactics,… Read more »
Well,we will keep our eyes glued to the table…truly it doesn’t lie,Tony said Feb 27th and Pedro said Jan 2nd, but for me it is the last matchday … In the meanwhile, what would Tets do against Newcastle? He has so many calls to make. +442 or back 4231? ( I would be tempted to bring in Ødeegard,we must integrate him with others and go back to 442 against top teams and rugby teams) – Tavares or Tierney (I don’t want Tavares to loose confidence,if I were the gaffer I would stick with him+ I just love how he opens… Read more »
Taking bunch of shots from outside the penalty are is kinda like making bunch of crosses to no one……… neither gives you a high probability of scoring.
That’s why xG for shots taken can be a useful tool to assess teams attacking performance.
James, Auba had a year left on his contract , so if a year after giving him the new highly lucrative deal he’s no longer the player that fits the clubs needs, then maybe letting him run out his original deal was the better option.
I give Arteta till the end of the season if he cant get us in Europe he must be moved on. Simple as that.
Lol I’ll definitely get the piss taken for this, but if Arteta could take one tip from Emery, it’s that we need lower crosses to our forwards 😂😂😂
I think it’s fair to say that not many were criticising Arteta’s team selection up until about the 35th minute when he made the mistake of falling for klopp’s tricks, and from then on the tempo and intensity of the game changed.. Maybe our tactics should have been slightly different at the start of the 2nd half as liverpool’s tails were up,, to continue to try and play through the press at that stage of the game was suicidal as we were conceding possession every 30 seconds in and around our own area for a 5 minute spell before the… Read more »
You know what I blame auba for all of this. If he didn’t miss that penalty against spuds, we’d have had our top 4 trophy already.
Expected goals stats can be managed, massaged and manipulated, like anything, that’s why I didn’t mention it… not because of any agenda on my part when I was talking about Emery. The table is the great leveller. Where we finally finish at the end of the season is the only statistic that counts. Europa League has to be the bare minimum for Arteta… especially with the backing the club gave him… I hope the Kronkes realise that they’re going to need to spend the same amount again at the very least to fix our attack and midfield. If we do… Read more »
James I so much agree on your take on this…..we have not come this far to now sit on our hands… this squad needs help and it is glaring enough for a blind man to see.if takers comes for either or both we let go sharp.we must begin to phase them out, given more game time to our lads.
.i really hope we buy a top striker who can combine their two main attributes.supplemented by Balogun or Martinelli
It’s hardly rocket science but clearly where we finish is going to be decided not by games against the top three, or against basement dwellers like Norwich or Newcastle (wanted to throw in Spurs there), but against our competitors for places 4-7.
That’s why we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand by mid-December following games against United, Everton and West Ham. If we’re still in the top five at that point I’d be more confident of a decent finish.
Liverpool was a free hit. It didn’t prove anything we didn’t know already.
The real proof is how we respond in the next 5 games in the league. If we bounce back against the likes of Newcastle, Everton, Southampton West Ham and Leeds with wins our losses to the top sides become blips and not disastrous.
Tom, I was one of the few who was happy for us to sell Auba in 2020, or let him run his contract down, it was an emotional decision to hand out the contract we did Giving a mega contract to a 31yr old who was all about athleticism, was unlikely to end well, players usually dip physically in their early 30s When players who are reliant on their physical attributes dip, they usually fall straight off the edge of a cliff Central midfielders + central defenders use their experience, positional awareness, and tactical nous, to adjust, and tend to… Read more »
Andy, 19 games would be a good indicator of where we are, so after Boxing Day We need to take 15 points from the next 21 available 35 points at the halfway line would put us on course for 70 points if we sustained that average across the second half of the season We’ll hopefully then improve at the business end of the season, as new players settle, partnerships on the pitch improve, and clubs still competing in Europe, aren’t as fresh as we are I’ve got us down for 69-74 points, which should be enough for 5th, and give… Read more »
We’re linked with Renato Sanches, this is his injury history, via Transfermarkt: 21/22 Muscle Injury Nov 16, 2021 – 8 days 21/22 Meniscal Injury Aug 14, 2021 Sep 30, 2021 47 days 21/22 Thigh Problems Jul 29, 2021 Aug 5, 2021 7 days 20/21 Muscular problems Apr 26, 2021 May 5, 2021 9 days 20/21 Muscular problems Apr 12, 2021 Apr 23, 2021 11 days 20/21 Muscle Injury Dec 12, 2020 Jan 7, 2021 26 days 20/21 Muscle Injury Nov 14, 2020 Dec 8, 2020 24 days 20/21 Hamstring Injury Aug 23, 2020 Sep 16, 2020 24 days 19/20 Hamstring… Read more »
https://twitter.com/primevideosport/status/1461355263881977869/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1461355263881977869%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-37028825793222965718.ampproject.net%2F2111060251009%2Fframe.html
This was before last weekend’s game .
@Tom hindsight is everything buddy, thing is who would we have got in instead
Midwest it seems actually there are multiple different xG models
0.1 x number of shots is one model and is the most simplistic
There are considerably more complex ones as well tho which is much harder to break down
Rich that record is not pretty
Cool player tho
Goober I shit you not welbeck is the only CF I’ve ever seen in top flight football who is only take as 50/50 to score vs face plant and miss from 3 yards out
How many fucking times man I mean really
There was one game where he missed two from a few yards out in one half. I mean for fucks sake 😂😂😂😂😂
Actually the more complex xG model used by opta uses machine learning and AI
It is still learning based on generic analysis of all football rather than individual players tho. The significance of this is a clear sighted on the edge of the box for Salah is a serious goal scoring opportunity whereas as we said Welbeck hasn’t scored more than 3 of those in his career. Both players’ contribution to xG would be expected equal. But one thing I’m certain of is: Mohammed salah and Danny welbeck are not equals.
Jamie, not sure we needed the benefit of hindsight to know that a player who’s all about elite athleticism, was likely to dip physically from the age of 31-34
We need to become much more astute in identifying signs of progression + regression in players
Wenger’s policy of 1yr extensions for outfield players over 30, was the right one
Players like Bergkamp who never really had much pace, and was an elite technician, tend to play on a bit longer
Take away Aubameyang’s explosiveness over short + long distances, and what else does he offer?
It’s crazy Pierre people don’t realise how good we’ve been since the start of 2021. Because we’re not playing Man City or Liverpool style of football and smashing teams 4-5 nil were apparently crap. Our comparison compared to Liverpool is not to be laughed at since the start of the new year. We are actually on title challenging form, even though we won’t win the league but it’s progress.
Agreed Rich at the time he was scoring goals but looking at it now looking back Auba joined under wenger when we were very creative. Forward 3 years the game has changed beyond us and the type of player a top club requires has changed
Super Ram