CLASSLESS VILLA PROPAGANDA MASKING DEEP FEAR + BIG TRANSFER ROUND-UP

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I’m going to start the blog with a philosophical theory.

Occam’s razor (or Ockham’s razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose an event has two possible explanations. The explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is usually correct. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation.

Aston Villa triggered me yesterday. The threat of them taking away Emile Smith Rowe felt painful. I reacted.

… but I was wrong.

Why? Occam’s razor.

The fewest assumptions, in relation to Smith Rowe, would have him staying at Arsenal and signing a new deal.

Reasons to go to Aston Villa: Zero

Would he get more minutes? No

Can they pay more money? No

Does he have a bond with the club or the area? No

Is there anything about Aston Villa that is more appealing than Arsenal? No

Next up, do Aston Villa have a reason to pursue Emile Smith Rowe? Yes

They are about the lose Jack Grealish to a major club this summer for big money. This is humiliating. It could basically make them relegation fodder.

So what is a good counter-punch? Trying to unseat Emile Smith Rowe. Villa fans are in the comments under my Youtube video crowing. They genuinely believe this is a real story. I pity them. They have fallen for it.

It’s low-level propaganda people. That is the simplest assumption and most likely the closest to the truth.

The final question we need to ask. Does Mikel Arteta have a history of losing his best players?

Not really.

Emi Martinez is the closest you’ll get on this one. But look, he’d been at Arsenal for a decade, he’d played 12 good games for Arsenal, and we stuck it out with a keeper who’d been a big performer for us. Do I regret that move? Absolutely, I preferred Emi, but let’s not pretend that this is the same thing.

We kept Auba when everyone thought he was leaving last season.

We signed Martinelli to a 5 year deal.

We signed Sir Bukayo Saka to a 5 year deal.

We even managed to tie down Flo Balogun to a 5 year deal, which absolutely no one thought was possible.

Actually, one more area to ponder.

Would Arsenal sell Smith Rowe to fund a bigger purchase?

Edu is in the last chance saloon this summer, he understands the fans, he knows what young players mean to us.

Vinai will absolutely know the power of young players, he’s seen the attachment we formed with players of the past, there’s simply no way our Chief Exec would not see this as a pivotal signing.

Finally, Arteta has made many mistakes, but I simply refuse to believe he doesn’t understand what Smith Rowe did for his career and what he means for the fans. You cannot talk about the values of Arsenal FC and not clearly understand that Smith Rowe is one of our top 3 players going into this season. He was the reasons we went on the post-Xmas run. He is the catalyst for energy in our starting 11. He is Star Boy #2. Arteta had to constantly tell journalists you can’t field 11 kids. He knows what Smith Rowe means to Arsenal fans.

If Occam’s razor could predict, it would probably say the most likely outcome here is that Emile Smith Rowe signs a new deal.

If this doesn’t happen, I am quitting the blog world. I will give the podcast to Johnny and Matt. I will never show my face on the internet again. I absolutely refuse to believe the club I love could do something as stupid as selling a 20 years old sensation like Smith Rowe. If they do, I think it was severely damage my relationship with the club and I think a lot of us feel that way.

So let’s see what Edu has got. If he does the deal here, you have to say, he’s moved us forward with regards to contracts. We’re stemming the flow of Serge Gnabry’s leaving the club. That’s a huge step forward.

In other news, it seems like we’re close to getting Tavares, Ben White, and Lokonga into the club. 3 players sub 24 years old. High levels of technical ability, all with there relevant athletic profile, all feels like they’ve been well scouted.

Ben White will probably take a while. The England player will have to have 4 weeks break and I very much doubt Arsenal are going to want to pick up wages for a player that isn’t at the training ground. There’s money to spend this summer, but remember, this is still the club that was rationing people’s microwave minutes last year to save money.

There will certainly be movement on the attacking midfielder front as well. James Maddison feels like a pipe dream, but who knows. I think Housem Auour at £30m could be the steal of the summer. I also think you have to allow Edu to get his kicks with Brazilians. Barcelona is in deep shit financially and I just can’t imagine Coutinho isn’t on a list somewhere. Say what you will about him, he’s played in the Premier League, he’s hugely experienced, he’s won things, and he’s better than anything we have at the moment. The job of that attacking role is to add goals and final balls. He offers both. I’d prefer it if we aged down, but as Edu deals go, this wouldn’t be the worst if you’re trying to bring Smith Rowe through with someone to learn from.

I also expect a right back to happen. Hector isn’t cutting it, Inter Milan is interested, if we move him on, we need to upgrade and find someone that can do the bits we need. I’d love it to be Ainsley, but I’m not sure he’s going to cut it after a duff loan move and all the other bits of nonsense that go on.

The big question I have is around Lokonga. Are we really going to role with him as a started next season? Seems a touch risky. The Belgian League isn’t strong and he’ll need time to adapt. Who is going to replace Granit Xhaka? The Italian press won’t leave the Premier League rumor alone. There’s talk that he is under a bid from England and it’s a big deal. Juventus hasn’t engaged yet and are obviously skint. He’s a very, very good player… but I just can’t see an Italian moving? They travel worse than English players. BUT… what a signings. AND… he’s a Kia player. Is the Brazilian Transfer Mafia going to do something nice for us this summer? Let’s see…

Ok, lots I’ve just rattled through today. Stay strong on Smith Rowe and believe that our club might have turned the corner on masochistic behavior.

RIGHT. I recorded a new podcast with Johnny… we dropped it on Twitch, people actually showed up… so here’s the video.

If you want the podcast in the normal place, find it here.

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CG

Avi

“”The false 9 attacks are weak imo. At the time…””

They are very relevant in fact and tell us an awful lot about Arteta and his ego.

arteta v pep

Arteta plays Willian as a no.9

arteta v emery

Arteta plays a false no.9

x 3 Spanish managers , Arteta tying to be the cleverest of the lot ( and failing)

Signing Benjamin White of BHA , when funds are limited and the squad in disarray elsewhere- is another Arteta ‘false no.9’ moment but in a different context.

Trying to be too clever , too much of the time.

Rich

Dissenter If Ramsey was stringing us along as you suggest Then how do you expect us to sell a player, who doesn’t want to be sold, and is either playing for a Bosman, or Arsenal folding and paying him ridiculous money? I really like Ramsey, but with his injury history, we were right not to fold and pay him big money to stay, and as a senior player, we were right to try and extract value out of him while he was here, if he didn’t want to be sold I’d be happy for the club to bend over and… Read more »

Sid

Wenger started the false 9, tactic by using Arshavin in the role
Had Diaby and Santi been available in the same team as Arshavin………

Davi

Fair points but I do think most responses are a matter of opinion. I’d have gone with GM, as mentioned, but it would still have been a gamble; any option would have been a gamble. Obviously it didn’t work but I just think it’s been blown a bit out of proportion – as bad decisions go, it’s not the worst, far from Arteta’s worst, especially given the circumstances.

Dissenter

Rich
What options do we really have for Kolasinac
He has only one year left on his contract and he’s used a free transfer exit before. I could be wrong but he comes across as the Ozil-Mustafi school that will sit on a contract.
It’s going to be a mutual cancellation of his contract with negotiated pay out. Maybe we agree to pay a fraction of his remaining wages spread out over 2-3 year

How do you think it will end for Kola?

curse

Andy, I wouldn’t zero in so much on the word ‘copy’ hence why I put ‘copying/borrowing/remixing’. I understand the evolution of coaching like anyone else and know that Pep didn’t just spring up out of nowhere with his own ideas. The main point was, in most walks of life people copy first then lead and where you copy from is important. Art has been around many renowned coaches that respect his opinion, I don’t believe for a second he’s just a yes man that is just copying city. Could Pep do here what he did at farca? obviously not, way… Read more »

Terraloon

Dissenter Are you suggesting he would be wrong seeing his contract out ? When he was signed on a Bowman you can bet your bottom dollar significant loyalty bonuses would have been a feature and be payable at the end of each season meaning that come May June time he will be paid quite a chunk from Arsenal. If I were him I wouldn’t compromise at all. He won’t get anywhere near what he is on at Arsenal should he move on now but in terms of age he will still be under 30 at the end of his contract.… Read more »

La croqueta

We are Everton.

We hope to be Leicester.

We dred becoming Newcastle.

Tavares? Who? If this ain’t a typical Newcastle type signing I don’t know what is.

I give Arteta 5 games before it goes to shit with fans in attendance. He doesn’t have a Wenger like grace period even though his supporters would have you think so. I know my club. I know my Arsenal fan family. He’ll get 5 games. Then the knives AND FORKS will be out. Irrational? Mabey. Unfair? Possibly. But fandom rarely makes sense.
It is what it is.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/nuno-tavares/profil/spieler/535955

Champagne Charlie

Dissenter

You know fine well if we walked from the White deal and he went to Chelsea you’d be all over us for not closing. You really need to refine your whinging a bit.

Keep your energy for scrutinising the lad from minute one of his Arsenal career where you can name drop Saliba at every turn. Cant wait for that movie, script is already written.

PhD2020

PedroJuly 9, 2021 18:51:44 Olumide, you don’t have any ideas because most options aren’t that great. You want a rockstar? We just saw where Spurs landed with that. You want a young coach with new ideas… all of them would have gone through the same growing pains at a big club with players that thought they owned the place. Arsenal needed a huge shift and that meant asking big names to do new things. You want to go with Nuno, Martinez, or Rafa? Be my guest, but we know the ceiling with those types. ———————————- In the same way,we doggedly… Read more »

Rich

Dissenter Like you, I think a compromised settlement is most likely Seems like the pragmatic solution for a player who clearly doesn’t want to be here, and the club want gone, but will likely become a game of cat and mouse I’m just worried that players + agents in future will use this template to get out of their players out of their contracts fully payed up, if they kick up enough of a stink That’s a policy that’s unsustainable, setting a precedent of being ruthless now, that costs us money in the immediate, but sets an example that we… Read more »

Dissenter

Terraloon
You’re right.
I didn’t consider sending him out on loan and paying the balance of his wages.
It’s just that’s not much different from agreeing to mutually cancel the contract and paying a fraction of his wages spread out over a long while.
That’s what we did to PapSok and Mustafi.

Tom

“Villa are just desperate to save face for when they loose Grealish. Their bubble is about bursting in their face now.“ Football fans are a funny bunch and the Arsenal fans are no exception. Everyone and their uncle always knew Grealish would eventually be sold to a top four club for mega money and the only question has always been to what club and for how much. So how is a club promoted two seasons ago losing face by selling their asset for 100million ???? Here’s a question: what’s a smarter move, Villa selling Grealish for 100 million, or Arsenal… Read more »

Dissenter

Rick We agree then. We just need to stop making these stupid transfers to begin with. That’s why I’ll rather pursue the Dortmund approach with younger kids with high ceilings. Even if you get it wrong, they are redeemable mistakes. We are pursuing a higher level poker approach but don’t have the right people around to pursue it. Chelsea made the worst goal keeping error in modern history when they signed Kepa for a world record fee but easily balanced their books by selling Hazard for a crazy fee. Dortmund don’t get much wrong because they don’t do big risks… Read more »

Marc

I don’t get the idea that Villa’s pursuit of ESR was to save face when Grealish leaves, by the time Grealish leaves it could easily be a couple of weeks down the road and fans have short memories any attempts fro ESR will be forgotten by then.

The only thing that will distract Villa fans from Grealish moving will be actual signings not rumours or a “we tried” excuse.

Gonsterous

Imagine paying 60m for aruor last year lol.
Get him for 20m this year

But I’m worried that he will be too much for mikeal to handle. His night life and character is going to butt heads with arteta sooner or later.

Not the best at man management that mikeal

Tom

Marc, I don’t know any Villa fans ……are they really thinking they should hold on to Grealish no matter what or the club have no real ambitions?
I mean , Arsenal fans on this blog are acting as if Villa selling Grealish somehow would mirror Arsenal selling RVP to United.

Dissenter

Tom
‘ Here’s a question: what’s a smarter move, Villa selling Grealish for 100 million, or Arsenal spending 55 million on a CB?’

I just wish were spending that money on a midfielder, that’s the part that grates me the most….and I’m not keen non the player but it is what it is.

PhD2020

*Look how that worked out,when Liverpool took a punt on him.

*and had a plan and vision in place.

Marc

Tom

You misunderstood my point – this isn’t about Villa selling or not selling Grealish it’s about their pursuit of ESR. If Grealish goes going after a replacement but not getting them will not placate the Villa fans they’ll want a signing, probably an expensive one in return.

Dissenter

‘Imagine paying 60m for aruor last year lol.
Get him for 20m this year’

Also goes to show how dim our business practices are.
We decided to walks over burning coal to pay a massive English and premier league premium on a CB, the very year continental European clubs are going liquidation type clearance sales.

Just wait until we start foot dragging to get crucial transfers through because we have to sell someone else-to buy.

Tom

Marc, they already got Buendia who isn’t a like for like replacement but who can definitely chip in with enough goals/assist were Grealish to leave this season.

Rich

Tom Depends on how well Villa reinvest that £100 million, and depends on the quality of performances, and length of service Arsenal can extract from Ben White Sheffield United’s revenue went from £20 million in the Championship, up to £143million the following season, finishing 9th in the PL Being in the CL is directly worth £40-£100 million, and that’s before you take into account other factors like brand value, increased profile, shirt sales, increased share of global fan base, increases on future sponsorship + manufacturing deals, etc…. The value of a football club is always on the pitch If White… Read more »

Tom

Dissenter, even Arteta can’t destroy the market value of a player like White so I’m not vehemently against this signing.
Is it a smart move?
No.

Dissenter

Imagine if Villa didn’t have the bottle or know-how to sell Grealish at the right time fir the right price.. .and just let him run down his contract and leave for free at the age of 28

I know one club that’s mastered the art of the empty transfer purse.

Mr Serge

Tom

I know couple of villa fans they both think their new board will back them like city and Chelsea and there is no chance they will sell Grealish as they will be top 3 challenging for titles by 2023

I laughed but they were both dead serious
They actually think no one can take Grealish as they sold him the dream and he will sign a new 350k a week contract

Mr Serge

My mate also says they are trying to get ward prowse as they need a dead ball specialist as Grealish draws so many fouls

Dissenter

Tom
There was this bullshite ESPN story about Arsenal being interested in Auaor but have to sell a midfielder to buy him.
It wasn’t clear whether the writer was alluding to completing Xhaka’s exit but I really hope that after the Ben White splurge we don’t become suddenly rational again.

Tom

Mr Serge
If by trophies they mean the cups then yea, but if the meant the PL title then they are even more delusional then some Arsenal fans, and I didn’t think that was possible.

Goobergooner

Andy, this is a pearler of a comment… “We’re not Manchester City, we’re Arsenal, a bigger club with more history and class than City are ever likely to have. I don’t want us to be a plasic low rent copy of that lot. I don’t want us playing boring possession football without end product. I don’t want to see CB’s hired primarily for their ball-playing ability. I want to see defenders who can actually defend, midfielders who can dribble as well as pass, preferrably with a bit of physicality, and I’d like us to actually play to the strengths of… Read more »

Goobergooner

Tee,

“He makes the decision and will equally be judged on it.”

Some fans like what they see. Some don’t. But you’re exactly right with your above comment. It’s just that for a lot of people it’s not good enough, yet it’s good enough for edu and vinai. 8th place consecutively after what Wenger produced is good enough for the clowns at the top

PhD2020

Would you say,scouting an elite or up and coming manager with a managerial track record,with room for further growth over possibly four or more countries(Italy,Spain,Germany,France,Holland and possibly a few South American countries-given they would be plying their trade in Europe,in the majority of cases) is somewhat a relatively easier task to undertake,compared to scouting for 100’s if not 1000’s of players both established and with potential across many leagues,many countries(some obscure),many clubs, for a club of Arsenal’s size or magnitude to undertake?

And the best we could come up with -was Arteta-a rookie with no managerial experience??!!

Marc

I’m feeling quite proud of the fact I’ve managed to not mention Arteta today – Doh!

Tom

Dissenter, Aouar at 20million is another one I wouldn’t be against………..worst case he flops and he and his brother go back to France for 10million or to Newcastle.
They have a history with French mercurial imports.
Arsenal could easily recoup the lost 10 million be selling the wags of Islington docudrama, or something.

Marc

Tom

As long as his wages aren’t daft then it’s not a huge risk.

Rich

Dissenter Look at Villa’s team, and how wealthy and ambitious their owners are Martinez top 3 keeper in the league (Our fault I know) Matty Cash, brilliant right back, who’d walk into our team Mings, good centre back, at his peak McGinn top PL midfielder Luiz rising top young talent Buendia will improve them Grealish second best creative midfielder in the league Watkins good young striker, on the way up Carney Chukwuemeka, apparently the best young English talent in his age group, in the whole country If Villa keep Grealish, and add 2-3 more quality players, stay away from key… Read more »

Mr Serge

Rich thats what my mate says that Carney kid they got is something spesh

They will likely sell mcginn for ward prowse but their squad is small so they could keep both

PhD2020

MarcJuly 10, 2021 15:15:59 I’m feeling quite proud of the fact I’ve managed to not mention Arteta today – Doh! —– Well,we can talk about all the transfer targets for this summer along with Arteta’s vision and what he so desires to our hearts contents.We can be enthralled and cajoled by influencers attempting to get us to hitch onto the Arteta propaganda dream bandwagon,but the big two giant elephants are still standing in the middle of the room. Chiefly the owners and management(Arteta included). So,all talk of Arteta(along with the owners) will still be a contentious issue. Not really into… Read more »

Tom

“As long as his wages aren’t daft then it’s not a huge risk.“

Marc, I’m assuming the obligatory quadrupling of wages for a player to come aboard the Arteta project which would put him at about £90kpw.

Dissenter

Rich
Good post about Villa
I’m one of the few here who don’t look at them in a condescending manner .
Their transfer dealings in the last 23- summer windows has been coherent and focused. They target a certain type of player, typically 20-24years old, just before they take off; cash, Targett, Konsa, Mings, Bertrand Traore, Ollie Watkins, McGinn

They will get better as a group, with or without Grealish.
Their transfers have made more sense that ours in the last 2 seasons.

Mr Serge

Diss i am the same about villa they are doing things right

Rich

Mr Serge If Villa keep their top talent, get Ward-Prowse, and a couple more quality signings Then they’re going to be a threat, and we’re going to have to compete with them All this self entitlement claims like Arsenal are the third biggest club in the country, is a load of nonsense That acclaim doesn’t give us a right to compete at the top, we have to earn that right, anyone expecting anything other than an almighty scrap next season between 3rd and 10th, is seriously overestimating the current quality and balance of our squad, and underestimating the strength of… Read more »

Tee

“Tee, perhaps you’d like to comment on why Arsenal shouldn’t have their own identity rather than be a pale copy of City?” This notion is just in your head, nothing more as it is some of the baseless things said on here. If I may ask you, what’s Arsenal’s identity? I’m asking because I could remember the anti Wenger brigade taunting him with the “he is copying Barca style of play” line whereas he was the one who set the blue print for sexy football in EPL. Man city almost played a whole season without a specific striker while we… Read more »

Dissenter

**Their transfer dealings in the last 2-2 summer windows, not 23 windows lol.

Goobergooner

PhD your ‘post in post’ comment resonated with this fella

TR7

Beginning to think that Arsenal are now likely to become a mid table club for unforeseeable future. Top managers and top players won’t choose the club as their ‘project’ and the good ones we already have on our book will seek to move elsewhere unless there’s a drastic improvement in our performance. For me the coming season is our inflection point.

Dissenter

I wish England had a better goal keeper than Pickford
He’s due a howler in this competition, it would have been great if if happened in the earlier rounds.

PhD2020

RichJuly 10, 2021 15:22:20 Look at Villa’s team, and how wealthy and ambitious their owners are Martinez top 3 keeper in the league (Our fault I know) Matty Cash, brilliant right back, who’d walk into our teamMings, good centre back, at his peak McGinn top PL midfielderLuiz rising top young talent Buendia will improve them Grealish second best creative midfielder in the league Watkins good young striker, on the way up Carney Chukwuemeka, apparently the best young English talent in his age group, in the whole country If Villa keep Grealish, and add 2-3 more quality players, stay away from… Read more »

Pedro

NEW POST

Ishola70

Whether Tavares turns out any good I don’t think we should expect any praise about him from Benfica fans and especially not being an established player with it. He is not one of their own. He is a Sporting Lisbon product. So Benfica fans are not going to be big on him because of being a Sporting Lisbon boy and Sporting Lisbon fans are not going to be big on him either because he defected over to the enemy Benfica. You can’t ask for young players and at the same time turn your nose up at this signing. Whether he… Read more »

PhD2020

GoobergoonerJuly 10, 2021 15:48:39
PhD your ‘post in post’ comment resonated with this fella

—-
Much appreciated Goobergunner.

Which post are you referring to you-I’ve posted a few today?

andy1886

“I’m waiting for you to show me how he is copying man city.” Okay, first of all let me point out for nearly eighteen months neither I or possibly anyone else knew what this so-called ‘project’ was. We have no identity, no clear style of play, no fucking idea what the plan was. I believe that Pedro first explained that the ‘project’ was for Arteta to apply what he learned from Pep to the team, he’s used the term ‘City Lite’. Better ask Pedro where he gathered that from but okay I can understand that might be the ambition. From… Read more »

PhD2020

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