BREAKING DOWN THE SALIBA MOVE (LONG READ)

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Let’s have a little history lesson to start with because it’s important to understand why Arsenal fans are reacting so badly to William Saliba moving to Marseille for a season (Via Ornstein).

  1. We have a new manager at the club that is very young and his decision making has been less than assured
  2. We have a Technical Director that seems like a beta at the whims of said young manager and his super-agent
  3. Arsenal, prior to the arrival of Arteta, has shown total ineptitude when it comes to young players. Donyell Malen, Jeff Rene Adelaide, and Serge Gnabry are three players that should have stayed with Arsenal, instead, they left and made their fortune and fame elsewhere

The most compelling argument against Arteta’s drive for experience over youth was Nicolas Pepe. Now, let’s be clear here, I don’t think this was experience vs youth, it was experience over a player that was failing. Last summer, we dropped a £36m contract on Willian, that with foresight, was a terrible idea. We gifted development time to a player who didn’t care, when we should have given them to Pepe or a young player.

The issue corrected itself hard at the end of the season but the moment stung. Again, it’s important to note that Pepe massively improved his game, he acknowledged as much, so the coaching is there… but the decision was shocking and still stings.

Onto William Saliba. To understand that story, you have to be able to hold a few ideas in your head at the same time.

The base premise is pretty simple: He’s not ready to start for Arsenal, so let’s get him 3500 minutes somewhere else.

… but there are complications we need to talk through.

PRICE

We purchased him for £28m in the same summer we shipped £72m in Nicolas Pepe. At the same time we paid David Luiz about £200k a week and purchased him for a fee. This summer was a real low moment for Arsenal and I suspect it played a huge part in the dismissal of Don Raul. We had serious issues in the squad that summer and we spent more on Saliba, who was clearly not ready, than we did on Kieran Tierney. It was not the sort of deal we should have been indulging.

For reference, that same summer:

  • Joules Kounde went Seville for £22.5m
  • Joachim Anderson went to Lyon for £20m
  • Tyrone Mings to Villa for £22m
  • Tapsoda to Leverkusen for £16m
  • Mario Hermoso to Atleti for £16m

It is not Arteta’s fault that we spent that much money on an 18-year-old centre-back.

Price tag does not mean we have to see him in the starting 11. It just means that Arsenal do stupid things with their money and that was one of them.

PREMIER LEAGUE CENTER-BACKS

We have a rookie manager and we don’t want rookie mistakes. How many managers at top clubs in Europe are playing 20-year-old center-backs week in week out? Almost none. The best example of that happening is Leicester City who rolled with Fofana last season, conceded 20% more goals, and bottled the Champions League places again finishing 5 points ahead of Arsenal in our worst season for 25 years. Would you take conceding 20% more goals next season for Saliba? No you wouldn’t.

On the young player thing, let’s just talk 20-year-olds in the most competitive league on the planet. Only 10 players younger than him registered more than 500 minutes last season (3 were Arsenal players). Only four defenders in Europe’s top 5 leagues younger or the same age as Saliba landed more than 1000 minutes (via @Orbinho). That is in all positions, across the board. Why is that? Power, pace, quality, and experience means something in this league.

The suggestion that we roll with Saliba this season would mark Arteta out as extremely unique. If it worked, he’d be a genius, but if it didn’t… we’d call the move a rookie mistake and demand him sacked. The fact that everyone is calling Arteta a bum for this Saliba loan tells you that there is no patience for him this season. If that were me, I’d look to de-risk my season, so it’s pretty easy to see why he’s not taking a chance here.

DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

Before we get into this. It’s worth noting that Arsene Wenger was the biggest gambler on young players. He believed that game time was the best way to blood players. He brought through Cesc, Anelka, Ashley Cole… but rarely dabbled with 20-year-old centre backs. The youngest was Phillipe Senderos, who made 13 appearances in his first season at that age. But things didn’t work out for him, a player that chose Arsenal over Madrid was often bullied by more powerful players, and he ended up having a breakdown in the dressing room after a bad Liverpool game. Ferguson at United moved on Pique at around the same age, because the Premier League is uniquely difficult for young players to break.

There were three options on the table for Arsenal. Play Saliba this season and take a chance on his undoubted talent, let him compete with more seasoned centre-backs in a season with no European football, or give him game time on a loan.

The best move for Arsenal and the player is minutes. The odds of him landing more than 500 minutes are slim. That would be bad for his development. Going to Marseille will give him a few things he’s not really going to get at Arsenal this season. Firstly, he’ll get a physical beasting under Sampaoli who is Bielsa-like in approach, so he’ll have the passivity in his game stamped out. Secondly, he’ll be part of the full season of their story, which is a different type of pressure, especially as he’s not there to make a shit defence better, he’s there to make the defence great from the start. There will also be more expectations at Marseille, a giant of French football in constant turmoil, with aggressive fans (they spat at Pires after a bad game I believe).

What is better for Arsenal, 500 minutes of bit-part play, or seeing your young star do something important with 3500 minutes?

SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS

CLUB CHOICE

My biggest concern out of this whole move is the lack of ambition from the player. Ben Knapper is the loans manager and he’ll have pulled together a group of clubs for the player to choose from (he had offered up Rennes last season according to GFFN). If reports are to be believed there was interest from Germany, Italy, and England. Why would a player trying to break the Premier League go back to France again?

The power move was Newcastle United. Go to a City that respects that style of player, adapt to the language, league, and culinary offerings (lol), pick up the pace, get physically robust, and have the British press make a case for you every single presser after MOTM performances. Going back to France looks like comfort and I don’t see the logic behind it if he’s serious about making it in the richest league in the world.

I also think it is interesting that Brighton, who are about to lose Ben White, were also not interested in taking him on loan for the season. For a player with such a big fan club, it is telling that Newcastle seems to have been the only interested party. Again, I’m not doubting the talent, just focusing people on the realities of the Premier League at every level.

ARTETA AND KIDS

I’ve seen a lot of ‘Arteta was a rookie hire, but won’t take a chance on inexperience’… I think this sort of commentary would hold more water if Arsenal were taking a Mourinho approach to the starting 11. We played the most teenagers in the Premier League last season. We were joint 5th for the youngest starting 11 last season. Arsenal, despite all the bad history, has managed to tie down all the best kids we want to keep in the last season (Flo, Saka, Martinelli… hopefully ESR).

What you also can’t deny is this… there’s a cost to kids in the short term. ESR was our most important player in the last 6 months, but he wasn’t pumping Grealish numbers. Saka, an absolute monster talent, will need to move those numbers hard next season if we want to head to the promised land.

Our squad next season needs to be derisked. We had the 3rd best defence in the league last season with no superstar centre-backs, which is why we’re moving on Ben White. He’s fit, he’s played under Potter and Bielsa, the chances of him failing are much, much lower than Saliba.

You also can’t complain about the 8th placed position then demand we do a madness and play a 20-year-old at center-back… because that’s midtable thinking. The mission is top four this season, not another 8th place. United finished second and are looking to add Varane to their starting 11, that’s what we are competing with (complain about his injuries, but he’s dropped 3800 minutes 3 seasons running and won 4 CL trophies).

THE FUTURE

The player will have two years left on his deal next summer. If he absolutely crushes his move in France, irons out the weaknesses that are in his defensive game, and kicks on a level… then he’ll be offered a chunky pay rise and he’ll replace someone in the centre-back mix at Arsenal next season.

‘The relationship is too damaged’ reminds me of people that look at animal videos online and say ‘look at that bear hugging the wolf’ before a scientist corrects the internet to inform them that the bear ate the wolf and it was playing with its food.

The workplace is brutal. I work in advertising as you know, it is a high-performance industry, and a daily ritual of humiliation.

‘Not good enough’

‘It doesn’t make sense’

‘That’s not interesting’

‘Go another round’

‘I’m going to give this brief to someone else’

Then you get better at it, get some wins under the belt, then you are offered a promotion. You don’t turn that down because your feelings were hurt as you developed, you accept it, and move on. It’s the same in football, you don’t complain that you were asked to do things properly. Harry Kane had 4 loan moves at shit clubs before he banged at Spurs, he’s ok! Ashley Cole was inches away from being sold to Palace after a loan before Sylvinho was shipped for passport issues. Groningen didn’t think VVD was up to it at 20 and his first big move was to… Scotland. Cesc and Pique left Barca and pinged right back. Pogba left United and went back. Football is a brutal game, but big players don’t cry about doing the hard work. If Saliba is good enough, he’ll be back.

Right, that’s me done for today. Listen to our podcast and I’ll see you in the comments for therapy.

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Marc

Pedro

I think it’s an ego thing – Madrid, Barca, City etc used to want our players now it’s Villa.

Can’t see it happening.

Marc

“Interesting that citeh and Liverpool are ‘interested’ what are the chances”

What in Xhaka – fuck me I don’t even know the word for what that would be – it’s click bait pumped up on steroids on acid.

Peckobill

Xhaka in Klopps high octane, high energy press 😂😂

CG

Pecko

“”””I think it was CG who posted yesterday who I agree with it seems a really daft idea to send saliba to the same club as guen .
If guen was pushed out because we were told he has this poisonous attitude “”‘

Its another example ( if there are not already enough) that the much vaunted ‘ process’ is a complete sham.

They are simply making it up , as they go along.

Gendozy in Salibas ear for 12 months.

Bloody marvellous.

raptora

Vintage, Cause by the looks of what we’re trying to do, we don’t have Europa, but we are looking to buy a 60+m CAM in Odegaard (confirmed a no-go) and Maddison when we have ESR who could be worth the same money by the end of next season. If we are bringing in a 60+m player, they will be guaranteed starters. That will make ESR first sub in the AM position, and either starter left winger or 1st sub as winger too. Then Pepe will become either a starter or a first sub to ESR, and Martinelli will be 2nd… Read more »

Marc

CG

Or it’s a cunning plan that Arteta can use to sell Saliba next summer – “he’s a problem player”.

Arteta’s fallen out with more players in 18 months than Wenger did in 18 years!

Peckobill

CG
It’s amateur hour , it’s basic stuff that happens in school class rooms . Back in school the trouble maker was isolated from potential good students to stop them going down the wrong path . We do it with 30 million pound assets. Dear lord

raptora

“Arteta’s fallen out with more players in 18 months than Wenger did in 18 years!”

Yup.

Who did Arsene have problems with in general. Lassana Diarra and who else? Someone like Anelka wouldn’t have played a minute under Arteta. Thierry probably as well.

DivineSherlock

If I remember correctly Anelka ( Le Sulk ) was a problematic player for Arsenal yet Arsene Wenger made a profit off him . Its only Arteta and co. who cant do shit about Guendouzi , a player who played every other game for Emery yet got binned by Arteta .

Pedro

New post!

Peckobill

Cesc would’ve been loaned to deportivo la coruna for 3 years instead of getting his debut as a teenage sensation

Pedro

Peckobill, yes mate, like Saka and Martinelli have been loaned out. Honestly, pick it up man, embarrassing lack of knowledge.

TallestTiz

Tony

Smiles

That McGregor vs Poirier UFC title bout is a good one to look forward to though

IAT-Robbie

Dear Don Pedro 🙂 I do not often visit this site but I’ll be making my first comment. Beforehand, I would like to clarify that I am not convinced by Mikel Arteta’s capabilities as a manager and I feel the same say about the club’s ownership/executives (excl. Garlick). Naturally this means that I don’t entirely agree with many of the points you’ve made in the above article. Regarding the Orbinho tweet you quoted. He tweeted the following: “Not sure what this uproar is with William Saliba not getting a chance. Only 10 players younger than him got more than 500… Read more »

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