Answer without thinking: Do Arsenal need a new striker?
At the end of their incredible FA Cup run, the answer was, “Of course not.” But following Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s at-times anemic campaign, Alexandre Lacazette’s emergence as some fans’ preferred centre-forward, and the numerous rumours linking the Gunners to exciting, young attacking talent, the question is not as easily dismissed.
Arsenal’s strikers in 2020-2021: What went wrong, and what worked?
To really get to the bottom of the question, we first need to figure out what happened to PEA this past season. Fans rued his missed chances, complete lack of involvement in some games, and at times, complete lack of enthusiasm. In 2020, we talked about how to play Auba together with Laca. By the end of 2021, many were talking about playing Laca instead.
By the numbers: I assembled 16 key data points measuring striker performance to get an idea of where Aubameyang’s season ranked, statistically speaking. He ranked in the 51st percentile across those categories, performing best in non-penalty expected goals (81st percentile) and his ball control (97th in mispossessions/game and 98th in dispossessions/game). But Auba was among the poorest dribblers playing forwards this season, ranking in the 10th percentile. He also made few key passes (31st percentile) and created very few shots for his teammates (20th percentile).
But what of the missed chances? Auba was just below average in shots on target percentage (47th percentile). He ranked in just the 32nd percentile in goals minus expected goals, basically the measure of how many goals you scored versus how many you mathematically should have scored. Doing poorly in these areas paints a very clear picture of someone who quite simply missed the target too often. Given his weakness as a passer and ball progressor, those missed chances were glaring.
Alexandre Lacazette did better than Auba in most areas, and he was rewarded with more playing time. He ranked in the 70th percentile across the 16 categories I studied, and you could certainly do worse from a pure tactical perspective than giving Laca another year, if he could keep up the play that helped him top the table in shots on target % (98th percentile) and goals per shot (91st). He was either incredibly lucky or incredibly good at shooting this year.
How about Eddie Nketiah, everyone’s favorite tap-in artist? He ranked in the 97th percentile in npxG in his short time on the pitch, and performed well in dribbles completed (84th), but otherwise performed poorly as a finisher. In fact, he ranked in the second percentile in goals minus xG, meaning he was either a truly ineffective finisher when he did play, or he had historically bad luck.
Arsenal links: What to make of them?
Strikers are hard to study because they’re all so different. You don’t just sign a striker who can dribble, shoot, win aerial duels and pass: You build a statue of him. So where do Arsenal’s credibly-linked targets excel? Let’s take a look, one by one.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin paints the least appetizing all-around image, ranking in just the 45th percentile among my chosen categories. DCL miscontrolled the ball 3.5 times per game this past season, ranking in the eighth percentile among strikers. He made less than half a key pass per game, putting him in the fifth percentile. Where he succeeded was getting his shots on target (97th percentile), and winning aerials (85th). Perhaps someone who can stay close to goal and finish crosses? He did score 16 goals in the EPL last season, but only three of them came against big-six clubs. At first blush, it’s hard to see him as a 50-million-pound acquisition in a summer with bigger priorities.
Alexander Isak, everybody’s favorite striker target, especially after the Euros, was next-lowest overall, in the 52nd percentile. He didn’t display particular skill as a passer for Sociedad, ranking in just the 14th percentile for key passes and 20th percentile in goal-creating actions. But he showed above-average ability to dribble (69th) and ranked in the 66th percentile in carrying distance. He’s a little stronger in aerial battles than Auba and Laca. He ranked highly in npxG (86th) and his shots were on target often (83rd percentile), but he did rank a pretty average 54th percentile in goals minus xG. There are two ways to view that: Either he could improve as a finisher, or he scored 17 goals without the benefit of luck. I tend to look at the combination of factors as a positive. The biggest hurdle in my mind is his price tag, reportedly a 60-million-Euro release clause.
Andre Silva is interesting. Data loves him, particularly non-penalty xG, where he ranked in the 96th percentile, a.k.a. the Nketiah zone. He was in the 89th percentile in shots on target %. He was in the 78th percentile in goals minus xG, meaning either he finished awfully well, or was lucky. He’s a bit more on the average side as a passer (51st percentile), which you can probably forgive if he finishes that well. The only other areas he dipped in were frequency being offsides (15th percentile), dribbles (43rd) and progressive carrying distance (54th), so he may not advance the ball on his own as much as an Isak. But again, do you care if he can keep up that finishing? For 40 million, he could really work out.
Gabriel Jesus just … feels … like the most unrealistic of the credible links, but data loves him as well. He exceeds as a dribbler (91st percentile) and carrier (81st). He’s more of a creator, with expected assists (88th percentile), SCA (85th) and GCA (81st) ranks near the top, all of which makes sense for a solid false nine. Of course, his shooting is weak. He was dismal on shots on target % (13th percentile) and slightly below average in goals minus xG (45th). I don’t know if a false nine would be the way to go, considering how it worked out when Arteta occasionally did employ one last campaign.
Of the credible links, the all-around highest score belonged to Joaquin Correa. The Lazio man also profiles as more of a false nine or second striker than a finisher up top, with carrying (94th percentile), dribbling (80th) and key passes (76th) ranks that are matched by few in this analysis. When I honed in on finishing, Correa was less impressive. His goals minus xG outranked Auba but were still a little below average, in the 46th percentile. His goals per shot were in the 47th percentile. Combining these two stats with his 11 goals scored last year and his 81st percentile rank in shots on target percentage points to a player who may just not be an especially strong finisher. It would be hard to see his fit in the current Arsenal squad without a more ruthless striker to play with him, or a big bounceback from Aubameyang.
Other strikers: Who could be worth a shot?
The good news for Arsenal is that there are plenty of promising strikers with interesting profiles who could be worth a 25-to-30-million-Euro gamble. Here are a few who stand out.
Sasa Kalajzdic, Stuttgart’s towering Serb, has drawn comparisons to Peter Crouch for obvious reasons. Since he’s 6’6”, he’s a natural target man, and has good passing ability, ranking in the 64th percentile for expected assists and 73rd for goal-creating actions. Another thing to like about the 23-year-old: His goals/shot ranked 91st percentile this year, while his goals minus xG ranked 98th percentile. Given he scored 16 goals in 33 Bundesliga appearances at Stuttgart this season, I’m inclined to believe those stats indicate more strong finishing than good luck. And of course, because he’s tall, Kalajzdic was an elite striker in the air (98th percentile in aerials won). There’s an argument to be made that Arsenal could use an aerial threat, so I wonder if he’d be worth the 25 million Stuttgart reportedly want for him.
Another all-around bright spot was Rafael Leao. Milan’s 22-year-old scored only seven goals in 37 appearances this past season, but separates himself from the crowd as a ball carrier. His progressive carrying distance ranked in the 96th percentile among forwards, while his dribbling ranked 82nd. He excels on the ball, ranking 84th percentile in dispossessions and 82nd percentile in key passes. His lack of goals was his biggest weakness this past season, and perhaps that’s due to an average display as a finisher, with a 54th percentile rank in shots on target %, 55th in goals per shot and 66th in goals minus xG. Leao reportedly wants out of Milan and could be had for between 30 and 40 million Euros, a potential bargain if he can improve as a finisher.
I always like to make at least one random suggestion, so here’s mine at striker: Breel Embolo. The 24-year-old Swiss international produced only six goals for Borussia Monchengladbach this season, which would make him a tough sell for some fans. But he’s played well at the Euros. And the data shows a few interesting points. His npxG (85th percentile), SCA (70th percentile) and GCA (88th) profile a player who makes an excessively positive contribution to the attack. But his finishing data show that he didn’t score the goals he should have. He ranked in the eighth percentile in goals minus xG, which signals either atrocious finishing or a lot of bad luck. His goals/shot was in the 38th percentile as well. But he did rank among the elite at dribbles completed (95th percentile) and drew more fouls than just about anyone (99th). Put it all together, and there may just be something there for a striker who could be a 20-million-Euro bargain.
Serge for me the question about sterling comes down entirely to cost and if we have already addressed our glaring weakness in midfield
If our midfield is fixed and sterling can be had for 40m or less (and we actually have the money) that’s one thing.
Sterling is 26. Englands best striker etc….. If Kane is getting a £100m bid then Sterling isn’t going for sub £40m….. get a little bit realistic.
Valentin
Even if he is poor and we have to sell him in 2 years, that is not much of a loss. But it begs the question, why we our scouting led us to a poor player. Let’s hope that is not the case and they have watched him extensively. He has decent whoscored stata for a backup. I just don’t like cheers for him leaving from benfica fans.
China/ Raptora Chelsea paid near enough exactly the same total for Havertz and Werner as Arsenal did for Partey and Pepe. I don’t think there is any doubt that the Arsenal two have totally underwhelmed to date and whilst I always think that players need a season before you really see their true worth Likewise think that the Chelsea two haven’t played close to the value paid for them. But and a big but with those two they both played a key part in what was to be honest a successful season for them. Havertz apparently had a very bad… Read more »
Why our*
The German team needs a creator more than anything, thats their missing piece.
Over to you @Pierre………
Great result forEngland at long last.Perhaps Southgate being pragmatic but that style of play albeit difficult to beat,is boring the Bollocks off me.Considering the array of attacking talent.Is in the squad.And as for “ smashing” Ukraine,I seriously doubt it.Just remember Iceland.
China
Sterling ain’t coming to Arsenal especially not for £40 million .
As for Kane his mind is on other things and for me the way Southgate has set up England with bot Phillips and Rice almost afraid to play the ball forward it’s no surprise that Kane looks so poor.
In a buying market, buyers dictate the price.
It is not necessarily how much is Sterling worth, but more who could afford him and who would he be willing to join.
If Sterling wants to leave and move back closer to London, ManCity does not have a lot of buyers. He is not moving back to Liverpool. ManUtd is out of the question with them pursuing Sancho. Spurs seems to be a pit of hell everybody is trying to flee. Chelsea and Arsenal may be the only option.
Tom “Kane is a monster on a club level but for England……;not exactly. Weird he’s been getting the headlines after a game Sterling did most of the damage.” I agree Tom. He’s the new Rooney the media adore him. He had a really poor game yesterday, no pretending otherwise. His first touch was poor, his movement sluggish and his link-up play was non-existent. That could be down to a lack of confidence, injury issues catching up with him or the transfer hanging over his head, who knows. That’s why I thought it strange that despite Kane’s lack of form, Calvyn-Lewin… Read more »
England needs Jack Grealish to win. He is the setup man for Kane and Sterling.
Nelson “England needs Jack Grealish to win. He is the setup man for Kane and Sterling”. Yes. Southgate has a reluctance to play creative players because of the risk they pose of giving the ball away. The two guys in the Center midfield aren’t press-resistant progressive passers, so the ball goes back and sideways. They work hard, don’t get me wrong but their job is to break up play. In addition, instead of creative wide players, we have more defensive-minded players playing as wing-backs. To be fair to Shaw he did well in the second half but that was because… Read more »
Habesha
I doubt any on here had heard of him prior to Arsenals interest
For me he smacks of a Lidl value purchase and based on Benfica’s fans views and the fact that they as a club always extract decent fees for decent players the fact that he comes so “cheap” suggests that Benfica themselves aren’t too worried about losing him
Tavares played just seven (7) times for a poor Benfica side that finished third last season in a three horse race for the title. Doesn’t scream PL ready to me.
Jake livermore was called up by Gareth Southgate when he first became England manager.
Say no more.
I think Southgate would like to get Henderson in the starting line up, who is a bit more progressive with his passing.
Harry Kane been poor but that goal will lift his confidence levels. I expect him to score against Ukraine. England have not conceded a goal yet that speaks levels of the way we have defended.
I don’t care about flair let’s just win this competition.
Sid
“The German team needs a creator more than anything, thats their missing piece.…”
It’s obvious that both Arsenal and Germany have struggled without à creator.
Losing a player who has technique, composure on the ball, patience, vision and intelligence will always be difficult to replace.
results and performances have suffered , hard work will only get you so far on a football pitch , that’s why England have a realistic chance of winning the euros with the likes of Grealish, foden, mount and Saka who all have good vision when it comes to playing the killer ball.
Trying to find a back up for a guaranteed starter like Tierney is like trying to find a back up for Harry Kane.
No superb talented high potential youngster is going to come into a job where they are guaranteed benchwarmers. No top class oldie will just settle for a life in the bench when they can go abroad like Ashley Young and Trippier did.
Benfica have Grimaldo at left back, who’s established + highly rated Tavares’s attacking statistics are amongst the elite for full backs, physically looks like a monster, but reportedly needs to improve tactically + defensively, also worrying murmurs around a lack of discipline It’s a low risk punt financially, but if he can’t be relied upon to actually play, particularly with Tierney’s injuries, then it’s a pointless signing We need direct competition, and I’d rather we sign a young hungry left back, rather than an older player looking for one last payday, hopefully Tavares has the talent and work ethic to… Read more »
Dissenter
They are behind Tierney. They are garunteed at least 20 games a season.
DannyS
Maybe washed up oldies like Lichtsteiner and doubtful youngsters, unless we get lucky.
That kid at Hibs sememed okay, maybe the Scottish kindred may persuade him.
Tierney is a guaranteed starter so long as he’s fit.
Dissenter It’ll be more difficult to get a top left back to come in and compete with Tierney without European football and less games But full back is one of the most physically demanding roles in the team, direct competition is healthy, and there’s no way Arsenal should go into the season without direct competition to Tierney, and a legitimate alternative in case of injury For Arsenal to put themselves in that position, would be gross negligence, particularly with the margins so finely balanced Leno was only behind Aubameyang for our player of the season 2 seasons ago before his… Read more »
Let’s see with Tavares. He has all the physical equipment to be a decent player.
Hopefully this wasn’t another recommendation from our goalkeeping coach, AKA the Lemondrop
kid.
I’ve seen figures of £7m – £9m mentioned. When we’re being offered £10m – £13m for Xhaka (different sources give different values) that’s still not an insignificant amount so hopefully he’s half decent assuming this goes ahead.
Rich if tavares needs his skill set ironed out and his offense is great then good stuff
He can be coached bring him in
Andy, most likely we are overpaying for Tavares and undercharging for Xhaka.
As my father always liked to say, a fool and their money are soon parted.
‘ Juventus have entered the race to sign Arsenal midfielder Granit Xhaka with Serie A rivals Roma also said to be interested in the 28-year-old Switzerland captain.’
Hallelujah
Congratulations to the Brits here.
Well done.
Rich
Soares can play that position, can’t he?
He was decent when he was slottedmin, even Xhaka did reasonably well
We just have to keep Tierney fit for the games that matter. A decent back up is all we need, not someone as good as Tierney.
Rumours are that we’re trebling Tavares’ wages.
I wonder if that’s really necessary?
Raptora
From the video , Tavares has pace . But over there appears to be working in less intensive situations than in PL, so his first touch will be intercepted. Notably noticed he tends to triple over like our Wenger donkey striker, forget his name.
An asset who can be improved as soon as the rotten sauce is binned and we get someone humble , but sound
“And as for “ smashing” Ukraine, I seriously doubt it.”
https://youtu.be/fzLtF_PxbYw?t=18
Patson daka signed for Leicester that’s a good buy from them
Watched the match and this extract from Football-365 gives the gist of Saka contribution. He hauled up his team to play a more respectable football “ took until a quarter of an hour had passed for that initiative to be grasped by the youngest player on the pitch, the third teenage starter of a major tournament knockout tie in England’s history. Saka is not as prodigiously exceptional as Michael Owen and Wayne Rooney were at that age but his is a quiet confidence and assured aura. He did brilliantly to win a free-kick from Antonio Rudiger in one corner of… Read more »
Dissenter Soares can do a job there, but the drop off in attacking output down the left without Tierney is massive I think I’m correct in saying that Tierney was statistically our most creative player last season In possession after Xmas, we moved to a 2-3-4-1 a lot of the time One of our wide players moved inward to create 2 No8s, and then usually Tierney or sometimes Chambers, were creating overloads on the outside Xhaka was dropping in to play a kind of left sides central defender/defensive midfielder hybrid role 2-3-4-1 in possession, and 5-4-1 out of possession, based… Read more »
It seems to me that what we football fans love best of all – apart from winning the game, of course – is criticizing the manager. To be honest I’ve known this ever since Bertie Mee. You’d expect that a manager who wins games, cups, titles would enter a halcyon period. Not so. Bertie was blamed for ‘boring football’. And years later it was GG’s turn: ‘one-nil the Arsenal’. Hence my reluctance to hound managers. Instead, I try to imagine myself in his place, facing his problems. So I shared GG’s pain when he was fired. And I admit to… Read more »
A lot of criticism of the manager on here always
Dissenter “We just have to keep Tierney fit for the games that matter. A decent backup is all we need, not someone as good as Tierney.” This Hopefully, without the extra midweek European games and the recovery issues that causes, Tierney will be less ‘fragile’. Again, without European football and no guarantee of minutes the market for ‘proven’ or ‘experienced’ is restricted and we don’t need to spend silly for a backup player. We should also remember Xhaka was covering this position, a compromise that nullified our ability to get up the line as Tierney does. Now ball progression from… Read more »
Of course everyone has an opinion but it’s stated on football rumours that Tavares has been given assurances that he isn’t going to be viewed as a back up.
Now of course that could be a load of old tosh but if it’s not would that mean that Tierney is going to drop into the back three or something else?
Terraloon
Didn’t you get the memo? Arteta’s going to win the CL next season so everyone is going to be needed!
What plan does Diet pep have?
1. FBs that are the main source of creating chances like Klopp.( Tierney and White, without a midfield that can gegenpress)
Or
2. Half #8 being the source of our chance creation like man c (We keep passing the ball between midfield and defence because our midfield is Not good enough)
Arsenal need a new manager. That should be first thing
No new post yet. I bet Pedro is drunk after yesterday’s big win.
Dont worry, England will beat Ukraine.
You heard it here first.
Come on, show some optimism
Terraloon,
That’s part of football. Josh King said Ancelotti lied to him to bring him to Everton. He told him he’ll be given chances to showcase his ability. In the end he didn’t start him a single time.
It probably sux to be in that situation, but what can you do? You cannot sue him for not honoring a verbal promise. If it isn’t in the contract, you are fucked.
Spotify’s VIRAL 50
#1 Three Lions (Football’s Coming Home)
Terraloon
“but it’s stated on football rumours that Tavares has been given assurances that he isn’t going to be viewed as a backup.”
……good. He’s more than a full back, more than a full back to me.