Arsenal head into another week where everything feels poised on a knife-edge. Truth is, I don’t believe there’s a knife-edge Arteta is hanging on. This season will be put in the bin for a lot of major clubs. Liverpool just lost their 6th straight home game at Anfield, Spurs have been utter shite, United have failed to capitalise again… really, it’s hard to hold any club up bar Manchester City who are well ahead of every team in Europe.
If the objective is to get back into the top 4 next season, then we’re likely chasing Leicester, United, Chelsea, Everton and Spurs. We are easily on the level of those clubs and if we can fix a few things over the summer, I think we’ll certainly be up there.
Structurally, we’re in a good shape.
We defend well. We’re in our worst-ever season and we have the 5th best defensive record as it stands. Structurally, we’re built really well. It’s a group effort, everyone knows where to be on and off the ball, and players are far more accountable than they have been in a decade. We don’t get battered these days, you never feel it’s coming either. That’s progress, because there was always a spanking waiting in the wings under Wenger, and Unai Emery oversaw a game where Watford unleashed 31 shots at our goal. That sort of banter has been consigned to yesteryear.
We’re also looking slick on the ball. Our build-up play is excellent. Forget the Xhaka error yesterday, the build-up for our goal that started with Thomas Partey flooring a Burnley player with his deft movement and it was pure NSFW stuff. That is a consistent feature of this team. Whining that we should just ‘HOOF’ that ball is really unimaginative. Fixing the problem is more appropriate than the default Sunday League rhetoric that followed Pep G when he moved here.
Our final third needs some work, no doubt, but before Christmas, we were dull and unimaginative, now we’re creating a consistent flow of high-quality chances that aren’t being finished. As problems go, this is a better one to have than being a turgid fine margins attacking unit that is sad to watch.
The foundations of a top 4 team are undoubtedly in place at Arsenal FC.
There are two issues we need to fix as a matter of urgency. We make too many errors in both boxes. Defensively, we punch ourselves in the face. It’s not structural, it’s a lack of concentration. Granit Xhaka always has that move from yesterday in his locker, but we have to accept reality, he’s our second best midfielder and he’s vital to our play. Saying he shouldn’t start is a nice soundbite in the comments section, but who else are you playing there? Ceballos who gave Leeds an assist 2 weeks ago? Elneney who refuses vertical passes? AMN who gave the ball away about 50 times in his last appearance before being moved to WBA?
We’ve also had 5 red cards this season. Again, this is an area we can control. Doing dumb things can be addressed with coaching and upgrades.
Unforced errors are our biggest enemy. Xhaka alone has contributed to 8 goals since 2016 from errors. You can’t hide from data points like that. The coaching staff know that this problem exists and they will work to fix it. Key point though… the system is not the problem. Individual errors can be debugged far easier than an Unai Emery like approach that invites waves of hell at your goal. We’ve dropped 8 points from our last 4 away games through unforced errors, win those points and we’re 5th now (via @KayaKaynak). The objective will be to cut those unforced errors in half next season.
The second part of the equation the coaching staff will be looking at is finishing. We’ve been awful in front of goal this season. We weren’t taking our chances before Christmas, we are taking more of them now, but not enough to see out games.
Again, I think this is hopefully an anomaly. When Arteta first started, we had a finishing rate so good it was unsustainable. I think it was second only to Liverpool. Auba will hopefully not be this bad next season. Saka, ESR, Odegaard, and Martinelli will find the net more often after a season of playing together. People were saying Saka wasn’t top-class before Christmas because he didn’t score or assist… what are those people saying now? Young players get better with minutes. Pepe and Willian might come good and contribute to the levels we thought we were buying into. Pepe certainly looks like a live wire. I know we’re all upset that Martinelli is sitting on the bench right now, but Lacazette was brought on as a false 10, and in a straight choice between the Brazilian and Pepe, you have to go with Pepe. He should have won a penalty, and scored two goals, he made the right impact.
If Arsenal takes 20% more of their chances next season, we’re going to be a top 4 side.
There’s a 3rd thing we need to deal with, and I have no idea how you coach this. Arsenal have always been easily rattled. That Xhaka error gave life to a shit Burnley side. It took us 20 minutes into the second half to get over our misery and that’s not good enough. Dealing with adversity has been a weak point since way, way back when. The squad needs to get better at that. We should be able to concede a shit goal and get back to the plan right away.
The machine that has been built at Arsenal is controlling teams now. Every game since Christmas, bar Manchester City, has been dominant from Arsenal. The problem we have now is not the machine, it’s the coding. Things like finishing will come more naturally, unforced errors will likely be addressed with upgrades in certain positions. It’s debugging versus a total rewrite.
Now, transfer news is always contentious, so don’t hang me. But I don’t think the club will renew on David Luiz with the young centre back production line we have coming through. The chances of Dani Ceballos joining us next season are very, very low. We’ll probably land Martin Odegaard on loan for the whole of next season and try and get a buy clause in his deal. Arsenal will look to ship out £100m worth of talent, which seems doable even in this market. Then they’ll look to bolster right back, left-back and central midfield.
We’re strapped for cash though. A consistent flow of poor decisions has seen to that. Arsenal paid out Unai Emery £10m on his full deal almost immediately after he was fired and he landed a job 6 months later, a very unusual move. Spurs and Chelsea simply paid Conte and Pochettino their monthly wages until they found new roles. You have to wonder why a Super Agent recommended manager is getting a full payout from a club that’s asking people to shut windows and heat their lunch using bonfires to save on the heating bill. I guess that’s why we don’t have a Don at the club anymore. It’s also why I don’t care for Unai Emery, he knew why he was at Arsenal, so fuck him.
We need Edu to be the guy that sniffed out deals for Odegaard, Martinelli, and Thomas Partey. This summer needs to be about smart signings. I want to see us picking off players no one else is looking at. 22-23 years old, a couple of seasons of football under their belt, high levels of technical ability, with strong characters. Get that centre midfield position looking a little deeper with a lot more quality and we’re laughing. I’m also quite hopeful AMN can do this business at WBA and prove he can cut it at Arsenal in the future.
It’s hard to be Mr Positive. Honestly, I’d rather be throwing shit at the project with the reprobates every day because it’s easier. However, that’s not my style. I write what I believe in and fuck everyone else. I wanted a progressive manager that would move us multiple levels with future football. I have no doubt we have that in Arteta. It was always going to take time, but the foundational work that’s been done so far is more than enough to convince me that this project is going in the right direction. I wrote right at the start the road back to the top would be rocky, it’s been rockier and less linear than I hoped, but there’s something brewing. It is now clearer than it’s been in 10 years what needs to be fixed… it’s up to Arteta to fix it and do it in fucking ruthless fashion. Get the basics down until the end of the year, start picking sides with next season in mind, then go to town this summer and bring in a generation of talent that’ll fire us to the Champions League places next season.
… or, win the fucking Europa and do it now. See you in the comments.
Yo
United beating City as we speak…
3RD
Early Fernandez pen of course
Trophy
Ok I’ll have it
I write what I believe in and fuck everyone else.
Champion
Penandes the amount of times he is in the refs face moaning and hardly ever gets booked. That’s a skill within itself.
Lots of if’s, maybes and hopefully in there – as there has been all season. At what point does hope actually have to become results?
If the deal negotiated by Unai did not include a clause that in case of sacking he would be paid monthly only until he find another job, then he was entitled to his full remainder of his contract.
We could also have put him on gardening leave and keep him on a pay roll to force to accept a lower severance package.
That’s on Arsenal.
11th
Where we belong
City finding out here who the establishment team truly is. The powers that be want to stop City’s run here and now. Same as they did with Arsenal in 2005. City need to really step it up or United will get another pen
Pedro, One your premises is incorrect. You assume that coaching can eradicate silly errors and red cards. However when silly conceded goals and red cards are the consequence of failed risky play, they can’t be eradicated by coaching. Even The two best goalkeepers in the league Ederson and Allison will commit howlers. Pep and Klopp solution to that problem has simply been to purchase better players. Look at the cost of the GK and central CBs of both team. Allison and VVD helped Liverpool to the title. Ederson and Vincent Company/Aymeric Laporte/Ruiz Diaz for ManCity. Unfortunately buying expensive ready made… Read more »
Valentin, it reads like you are countering my point by making the exact same point.
What’s up with Liverpool though. They’re donating free points at the “fortress” right about now..
If only we could capitalize on the slip ups by out rivals
Valentin, I don’t assume that. I know we’ll be upgrading players this summer and some of the error avengers will be moved or dropped to squad player status.
See I honestly agree with what you say Pedro about Arteta and Arsenal. But I still have major doubts about Arteta and his favoritism , I cant fathom how Martinelli isnt getting game time . He has all the attributes Pace , Power , skill , also has chemistry with most of the teammates. Yet Arteta has chosen to bench him in favor of Willian.
how optimistic, assuming we’ll be upgrading on players in the offseason, when our finances are worse than ever before, and no bums in the seats at the emirates.
we are in a dangerous moment and people are still optimistic about this arteta thing, blows my mind to smithereens.
We are talking about Arsenal aren’t we Pedro? Just checking 😃
Fact is Arsenal failed to dominate a Burnley side against relegation and struggling to create any chances all season. They created plenty against us. Yes I would say Elneny is our second best midfielder. He is better than xhaka. But those two should take it in turn to partner partey.
“See I honestly agree with what you say Pedro about Arteta and Arsenal. But I still have major doubts about Arteta and his favoritism “
Every manager has his favorites. This only becomes an issue when results don’t match expectations.
My El Nene ( my granny) is 82 with Alzheimer’s and I’d still put her ahead of el neny and Xhaka
Happy for Luke Shaw
Every time he does well, he sticks a knife into MourhinoHenderson launched that attack perfectly
I hope Leno is watching
Steven Gerrad winning the league with Rangers and unbeaten so far too, now that’s generational stuff one would hope, going well in the Europa league too
*Happy for Luke Shaw.
Every time he does well, he sticks a knife into Mourhino
Henderson launched that attack perfectly
I hope Leno is watching
What has Leno got to do with the Manchester Derby?
Divine, yeah, a lot of fans say that… BUT… everyone whined on about how unfairly Pepe was treated, now look at him, he looks a player.
Would love to see more minutes for him, I am sure they’ll arrive
If some people have a watery explosion in the loo. somehow Leno will be to blame
Bati, incredible stuff from Stevie G. Unbeaten wherever you are is a huge, huge deal
Prime actually rate Leno as a good keeper.
I remember when he signed and he couldn’t get in ahead of cech.
That told us everything.
*Happy for Luke Shaw.
I’m not, bloody hate United.
People*
Batistuta
Yea, Gerrard’s exploits at Rangers is truly generational
Everyone knew that that job is a stepping stone but boy, has he delivered.
He’s made Scottish football more relevant by re-establishing the rivalry between Rangers and Celtics.
https://www.justarsenal.com/youve-got-to-recognise-when-the-opposition-are-right-on-top-of-you-keown-slams-leno/275640
Keown with the only correct take on Burnley’s goal.
Samesong
I like some of the players who play for United even though I loathe them.
I used to feel sorry for Shaw when Mourhino was there. He beat him into pulp.
Keown’s take is wrong… whole point of playing out the back is to draw players in to create space.
No Arsenal fan should be happy for Manure or their players. Fkin hate them.
If there’s another remake of “Flinstones”, Luke Shaw got the Barney Rubble part all sewn up
8th wonder of the world has to be Luke Shaw: to play high level football with so much junk in his trunk.
United fans still think they can win the league their that arrogant.
One of these days, Edu is going to luck out with a signing as good as Fernandes.
great post Pedro and totally agree. Xhaka does have a role for now but he needs to be replaced as a priority this summer. A CM to partner Partey is a priority. Azeez needs to be promoted to start getting game time as well. Martinelli and Balogun need to be groomed for CF with Laca being sold. BUT we are definitely looking better all over the pitch. Still needs a further build but huge progress over what we saw 2 or 3 years ago. The big one -stop this suicidal slow playing out from the back – that one is… Read more »
Spin ,then more spin if my uncle had tits……….etc.
It’s been said over and over but heh nothings changed , we are not a good side.
The coach is learning ( or not ) and picking favourites is so pathetic and it’s costing us.
Arteta will not change he’s trying the Pep route because that all he knows.
It’s all words and no substance.
On the out list;
Nkietah, willock, AMN, Nelson – £60-70m
Guendouzi, torreria, – £30-£40m
Some of the fridge youth players – <£5m
Maybe also then;
Bellerin – £40m
Lacazette – £20m
So around £95- £115m as a core budget? Then with potentially about £50-60m more. With Luiz off that also releases £250-300k per week?
Would need; back up GK, potentially a RB and CB, back up left back, before adding quality.
So looking at 2 big signings??
Pedro,
When all is said and done there’s got to be a (minimum) level of expectation Arteta has to reach come end of the season.
Mine is that we finish no lower than 7th and get to the Europa League final (I think we’ve got to a cup final the last 4 or 5 seasons).
What’s yours?
TIL: Bruno Fernandes only has a single surname. I thought it was double-barelled Fernandes-Pen… Anyway, on to the post. Data points are great, but they don’t exist in a vacuum. A tighter defence is great, but it still needs to translate into more points to be of any importance. Losing 1-0 is only a smidgen better than losing 2-0. The argument that the machine is now working and now only needs debugging is a bit dubious. Sometimes a design never works and has to get binned. WinFS was always just bugfixes away from release. It never happened. What matters is… Read more »
RR
“When all is said and done there’s got to be a (minimum) level of expectation Arteta has to reach come end of the season.”
Pedro will never allow Arteta to be assessed by any objective metric
In any case, the club isn’t going to sack him.
My metric is if we don’t qualify for Europe after 25 years of non-stop participation in UEFA competitions, then Arteta should be fired.
He will still be here because Arsenal is a pressure free job.
Pedro/ Dissenter
Amazing stuff really and its not just been boring nicking wins stuff, they play such incredible football and are so fucking exciting to watch. My best team to watch in the Europa league by a long distance.
Another metric of progress has to be showing up in a. north London derby.
Even the much derided Emery got results from NLDs.
Radio, not in a season when Liverpool might not make Europe.
Expectations are that we continue improving our performances and eek out as many wins as possible.
7th is fine, but 8th is a reason to kill a project that is on the right path?
Next season is when we can start being more ruthless about expectations.
Diss, that I agree with. The club has been super focused on that game. It’s a cup final for them, they know it
The problem with Xhaka dropping deep to collect from Leno is that his go to move under pressure of getting between the ball and attacker, provoking contact and falling on the ball is a no go in our penalty area. Partey on the ball under pressure is a joy to watch but he’s got all the tools Xhaka just hasn’t. He can dribble and run past players, shield the ball and shrug them off too when needed. Xhaka has neither. So if that’s the bases on which Leno gets the blame for that goal then so be it, but I… Read more »
Pedro, You’ve been imbibing panglossian elixir to excess my friend. The stuff about transfers is a wish list. Luiz and Dani going but Odergaard staying etc. What’s that based on other than a wish? Many would like to see that (as they’d like to see the club get rid of dead wood for top money) but it’s fantasy sadly. I don’t trust the numpties running the club because they lie and obfuscate – they’re equally as likely to do the opposite of what we all want to happen, I’m afraid. The amount of errors we make is sobering but titty… Read more »
Kroenke, it’s based on having better information than most people on things like this.
Oh, Pedro, you were doing so well, until-
Arsenal will look to ship out £100m worth of talent.
Who the fuck to? Barcelona?
Arteta has us on the right path apparently, and we have been simmering, just don’t set any actual expectations for the season
Put it in the bin
Green Bay
Matteo G – £25m
LT – £25m
Willock £10m
Eddie – £25m
Reiss – £10m
Hector £30m
Lacazette – £20m
Bit ambitious with some of your valuations there Pedro. Can’t see is getting anywhere near £25m for Eddie or £30m for Bellerin.
The kidnappers should go straight to the point and ask for ransom instead of trolling le grovers
Pedro
If wishes were horses, you would have a stable as large as the sultan of Brunei’s
I think you’re selectively processing information to suit a position that you’ve settled on already. Arteta has to be good, so you skew everything to rhyme with that.
If Arteta is that much of a generational manager , why does the wallet need to be emptied ti save us from being 10th place on the table in March.
Liverpool’s decline has been shocking only if you ignore their injuries,
Their CB pairing today was Championship level and that’s if I’m being generous.
I’ll accept a 65% adjustment of the figures that Pedro put up there.
Get £100 million for those players ands spend it early on younger players.
Edu has to take charge of the process early.
Diss, A few things. 1. Jurgen Klopp just lost his 6th home game in a row to Fulham. He’s top 3 in the world. If he’s struggling, maybe level your newly minted high standards 2. He’s a rookie coach. We hired him based on a potential and growing with him, namely, because we couldn’t afford a Poch. Part of the cost of this was bad moments. 3. We’re tracking the right direction performance wise. Just as Emery was winning points whilst crashing us, Arteta is now doing the opposite. I’m not wishing anything into existence, I just see where this… Read more »
Tom, double Champions League finalists in 8th getting your sympathy after a few injuries?
We’ve gone the bulk of our season without Thomas Partey, but no one on here wants to talk about that.
Great post Pedro I stopped reading Le grove years ago, because I couldn’t deal with and didn’t agree with the anti-Wenger sentiment. That’s the great thing about reading blogs — no one forces you to read them if you don’t agree or don’t like them. And that’s why I don’t understand posters who lambast Pedro for his point-of-view. It’s fine to have an opinion, but to constantly berate the guy who writes the blog — totally bizarre. We’re close to being a top 4 team again — why don’t we just wait and see what the end of this season… Read more »
Have Liverpool set a record for the number of premiership home defeats in a row? Less than 12 months on from being near our record unbeaten run – unreal you just couldn’t make it up!
Matt, a lot of panic in the system that Arteta is going to turn this around. Sad. Arsenal are passing the eye test now. Fix the errors at both ends and we’re a very, very good side
Anything other than qualifying for Europe through the league or at least getting to the Europa league final would be deemed a failure of a season and rightly so rookie manager or not.
Ridiculous valuations: Bellerin favourite suitors PSG and Barcelona viewed him as €25 millions, however Barcelona are skint and PSG needs to hire French players to meet their Home Grown Quota. So if he moved it would be for no more than £25 millions including all the add-ons. Matteo and Lacazette are in their last year of their contract. Nobody are attracting interest from clubs outside of France. No French club can afford a fee and their salary, so they will sit it out or request a loan. WestHam are unlikely to bid £25 millions for Eddie. Unless there is a… Read more »
Matt
I agree multi trophy winner Emery isn’t fit to lace Arteta’s boots
Pedro
I have no sympathy for them but any Arsenal fan should remember seasons we absolutely lost it due to injuries to key players.
Not having Partey at his best throughout the season has been a huge loss but let’s not pretend Liverpool’s injuries haven’t been on scale much larger than a few players, whatever the reasons.
The Wizard, every Arsenal fan agrees with that statement. He was a total bum.
On the Leno subject I wonder whether the decision to sell Martinez was based on training ground rather than real match data. Yes Leno is more agile. But in a match actual shot stopping is only a part of the overall role for a GK these days. On every other factor big M beats Leno in my opinion. A case in point is Villa’s third goal at Highbury this season. Martinez came out and caught a high ball and almost instantly as he landed set clear Grealish free near the half way line with a long throw.
Gosh there are people who know stuff that we don’t.
Like what?
We can witness this crap like anybody else, but we are lowly disciples
Lucky you Pedro being in the know
SpanishDave, maybe if you watched the game a little closer you wouldn’t be so miserable.
Why would PSG or Barca spend £25m on Bellerin when is is barely good enough for a mid table Arsenal team. Mid level La Liga is his level at best.
Why are we even talking about Emi — he’s a Villa player and ex-Arsenal, so respect and all that, but why does he still command so much attention?
Foxy, he’s young, has a great brand, would easily cut it at PSG… can still learn.
Matt, super weird, he’s conceded one less goal than Leno… and Leno has been amazing all season.
Pedro, Again you make the assumption that Partey will adapt to the physical rigour and demands of the EPL. There is as most chances that He may be a permacrock for us. Unable to play more than 50% of the games in a season. I am doing a Sid and I am telling you free that the French U21 market is out of bound for Arsenal as long as Arteta is in charge. So Arteta will have to dive into the ready made players market and most will be more expensive. Arteta may have moved the goalposts and said that… Read more »
Pedro, just checked the previous post’s comments section, did you just send my friend Winthorpe to sin bin lol?
He’s a very keeper — do these people not remember the terrible days of Alumnia, Fabianski and even Chesney?
Valentin,
1. French U21 market is most certainly not out of bounds. Arsenal is prestigious. We pay well. We’re an elite brand. We have deep heritage with French players.
2. There isn’t a high chance that Partey can only play 50% of our games, you just made that up based on no expertise.
Valentin: For most of his career, Partey has had very few injuries, so what evidence is there for his potential to be a permacrock?
Tom, I don’t know what you are talking about.
I will say that racism is treated very strictly here and a new moniker will not change that.
Pedro A great post today. I also truly believe we have the foundations of a top 4 team and something special is brewing for next season. Individual mistakes + VAR absurdity especially against us has cost us many points, not just in the last 4-5 games but throughout the season. A lot depends on what Edu does in the TW. Shipping out the unwanted players and raising 80-100 mil should be the first objective. And its easily achievable. Hector-25, Eddie -15, Laca-25, Joe-13, Reiss- 10, MG-25 , LT-20. AMN- 15. That is about 120-125 mil of players that are not… Read more »
Valentin, having the best defence is extremely relevant when you are looking at the big picture of a club in transition.
Better defence but we’ve lost more games than we have for years. I need glasses as I really honestly can’t see any improvement. And playing it out from the back to create space is fine if you use that space created to launch an attack. We don’t, we just play it sideways between the defence who then passes to Xhaka who in turn makes us think he’s going to play it forward, before he then turns and passes it back to our CB’s , rinse and repeat 600 times a game.
Now that our league challenge is practically over, Arteta should play his strongest team for the Europa Cup games. I am interested to see whether he starts to give more times to all the youngsters. Since he has a system in place, it shouldn’t be a big drop in quality by subbing in a few youngsters in his system.
Far from miserable it’s just the up the arse attitude , I know best.
We all can see what’s happening and for most here it’s not good because we are mid table.
The league table doesn’t lie.
Bellerin a brand……. heard it all now.
Pedro
Why does Liverpool missing Europe excuse Arteta? Westham, Everton and Spurs are currently above us on the table, how are they doing it?
The season Leicester won the league, we all blamed Wenger for not winning it I don’t remember you saying well Pochettino is also failing so Wenger is excused.
The reality is some teams will get better next season and of we are to judge next season by this, we will finish 6th.
“ I will say that racism is treated very strictly here and a new moniker will not change that.”
Maybe Winthorpe can come back as Billy Ray Valentine then
Pedro
Thanks. That helps to explain things. I know it would be a wrong move to reveal your sources/sauces, but I’d be intrigued to know of cases where you’ve obtained an inside track on the club in the past few years which has actually come to pass and which was counter to expectations e.g. a transfer in or out, or a change in club personnel.
Arteta’s been here for 18 months, has had a large say in what players we retain, sell and loan. Arteta’s picks the players and sets the team up. To be saying now that we need to rebuild the squad after almost 2 years cos it’s not good enough, and accepting that we’ll probably finish lower in the league than Emery did, and be happy to write off this season, smacks of agenda. I don’t care how well or not Liverpool are playing, the continual reference to Liverpool is ridiculous. Who cares! Why don’t you use West ham as a comparison?… Read more »
Keowns take is spot on.
Can people stop over analysing things.
By the way Pedro you don’t “draw players in to create space” in your own six yard box.
That’s dicing with death, as was proven yesterday.
Graham, that is absolutely what they’ve been doing. High risk, big rewards. Very close to the goal line to create options. Keown is wrong
Playing out from the back isn’t a problem in and of itself, it’s the time it takes us to carry the ball to the final 3rd that’s killing us.
Far too much time spent knocking the ball sideways, allowing the opposition to get back into shape.
Anonymous, what is disingenuous is ignoring the cultural context in the league this year to batter your own club. Take that shit to another comments section if you have a problem here.
Yikes. Takes balls to call the content creator the biggest numpty on here when you’re writing daily love letters to the Villa keeper.
Mark, you can’t even decide on a timeline.
He’s not been here 18 months.
He’s not been here 2 years.
You have to exagerrate the timelines to reinforce your non-point
General consensus is Xhaka is out second best midfielder.
Willian won’t be sold because no one will buy him, but he’s playing well now.
Martinelli is a non-issue, better players are ahead of him and in better form.
This is a non-argument.