German football is BACK (nearly)

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via @t0wey (instagram)

Well, well, well… I didn’t see it coming, but it is the German’s that have plunged themselves back into football first. Angela Merkel has pushed her footballing will onto clubs and ensured that we’ll be seeing some games this month. This, despite Macron poking his nose in and lobbying for them to cancel like Ligue 1 did (shame bells).

This is very exciting. It’ll put pressure on English, Spanish and Italian clubs to follow suit. Is it the correct decision? Only time will tell, but at least the Premier League has an excuse now.

‘The German’s made us do it’

Rapha H’s piece in The Athletic focused on how they’re dividing up the fixtures. There are a number of proposals under consideration, but one of the more radical ideas is the rework the fixtures based on geography, playing the local games first, then as the impact is played out, the distance can widen.

I like that approach, mainly because if we did it in England, we’d avoid facing Pep G on our return game. It wouldn’t be easy, our first batch of games would be Watford, Spurs, and Brighton… but it’d be better than a fresh Manchester City.

Mikel Arteta and Ian Wright had a fun chat for Adidas.

Key takeaways. Ian Wright loves Arteta.

Additionally, it would appear that Arteta loves Kieran Tierney. There was quite the section dedicated to how impressed he was with the wee Scottish lads’ attitude and application. I think a lot of Arsenal fans are wondering what the future of the left looks like. We have so many sexy options. Martinelli, Tierney and Saka is a problem that any manager would like to have. That piece about Saka being a top 30 winger, versus a top 3 left back weighs heavy… the left side equivalent of Lampard/Gerrard. It’ll be very interesting to see how that’s solved.

It was also interesting to hear Arteta talk about being ready to get the season underway for the country. That sort of tone indicates to me that he’s keen to get the season underway and I would assume that the players are feeling the same way as well. Not all of them. Getting Ozil up for an away game is tough in the best of circumstances, can’t imagine he’ll be putting his hand up anytime soon for a corona derby.

There are some loose rumours about us trying to sign up Angelo Stiller. If you remember him, you are a better man than I… but here he is forcing Mesut into a tackle.

The Bundesliga website reckons he plays a little like peak Nuri Sahin.

A deep-lying play-maker just as willing to create as convert chances with a wand of a left foot? Stiller has more than a little in common with Nuri Sahin, the Borussia Dortmund legend who remains the Bundesliga’s youngest ever debutant aged 16 years, 11 months and one day and now struts his stuff for Werder Bremen.

If there is one difference, it’s that Stiller is just as able to burst forward and attack as he is to sit deep and dictate play. Sahin spent two seasons away from Dortmund at Real Madrid and Liverpool between 2011 and 2013. Injuries aside, he was also used in more advanced positions than he was comfortable with. Stiller gives his side options, being equally happy playing as a No.6 or No.8.

I like that we’re looking to bring in midfield talent and this sort of move reeks of Project Youth, Reboot Edition. I really hope that as we shift out expensive deadwood, the transfer strategy refocuses on elite kids that we can grow. The situation we’re in at the moment demands it.

On the coaching front, Santi Cazorla opened the door to a return to the backroom team.

“I don’t know what my legacy is. You have to ask the fans, but I want to thank everyone. I don’t know what I will do next, maybe a coach, maybe a sports director, but I would like to come back”

Makes sense from a feelings perspective, but I don’t know much about him as a potential coach. One to watch. Interesting to note that Pep is leaning into Alonso as a candidate to be his number two.

Cesc Fabregas also has it all to be a coach. Ruthless, intelligent and product of La Masia. It’ll be very interesting to see how many players from that elite batch of Spanish players take up the management tools. Or maybe he’ll move into biology if his latest book choice is anything to go by. He’s reading Robert Sapolsky, Behave. If you like that sort of read, can I highly recommend Some Assembly Required, Neil Shubin. It’s a certified mindblower that fills in some of the gaps Darwin missed out in his classic tome (it’s not a creationist book).

Back to the football.

Mikhi and Roma might be a permanent deal. The clubs have agreed that a 10m euro fee feels right. The Premier League has not been good to the Armenian. I’m shocked we’ve managed to land anything for him. That’s a chunk of change off the wage bill we could do with. Put the spare cash into Saka. Plenty more work to be done this summer, but at least some of the pieces are moving.

I was going to touch on the Premier League doctors asking 600 questions of the league, but it feels kind of pointless now. If Germany cracks football, the Premier League will have to. Watch this space.

Right, see you in the comments. x

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Marc

Emirates

What was Liverpool’s turnover in the same period? That’s an horrendous wage bill.

China1

Marc its a cl and PL winning wage bill for 2020!

Marc

China

Doesn’t matter if you’re losing money hand over fist – you’ll still go bust.

Bob N16

Can we not offer Ozil £5 mill to leave? He can go to Fenerbahce who will not have to pay a transfer fee so can give him a signing on fee of say £5 mill and give him a 3 year contract which would be subsidised by the commercial benefits of having a Turkish icon. This would save us £13m over next season. We might need to bring in a couple of more experienced players if we can get rid some of our older, over paid players. I’m not too worried about transfer fees coming in. Just like with Ozil,… Read more »

Emiratesstroller

Marc Liverpool’s revenues last season were significantly higher than Arsenal primarily because they won the Champions League. However there profit was only £30 million. What was more interesting is that despite their success their transfer business was minute. I think that they spent only £8 million. No-one knows exactly what is the current position at Arsenal. It is a “private company” owned 100% by Kroenke who is not only immensely rich but married into one of the wealthiest families globally. What has been apparent last season is that Arsenal were prepared to walk out of negotiations with both Welbeck and… Read more »

Freddie Ljungberg

Dissenter, Marc The problem when Wenger was doing his project youth is that they were either shite (Denilson, Bendtner etc) or way too injury prone and inconsistent (Wilshere, Ramsey) The few truly top class ones we had like Cesc was surrounded by too many inferior players or players that only played half a season. It’s different bringing up kids from the academy who are decent prospects with non to little experience of senior football and someone like Upa or Soumare that’s been doing it for a couple of seasons at a high level and are world class talents. None of… Read more »

Bob N16

Agree totally with your post Freddie. Give us some extra strength and dynamism in midfield and let the youngsters gain from more game time.

Marc

Bob

It’s not that simple with Ozil. He’s currently on £18.2 million a year with us and would be able to get the £5 million signing on fee next summer anyway so that’s irrelevant. If we give him £5 million to bugger off anther team’s got to pay him £13.2 million a year that’s over £250k per week to match what he’d get staying.

I can’t see anyway the maths works trying that unless we pay him a stupid amount of money we just don’t have.

Freddie Ljungberg

Not to mention how much better our defence would be if we shipped out some of the players that are experienced but mostly in clownery and greeko roman wrestling and replace with Saliba and Upa.

Having someone in front of them that can overtake a 80 year old grandma on her way to the early bird special would also make up for any drop in attacking output and make us more solid than the mess we’ve been seeing in the last decade or so.

Marc

Freddie

I have no problem with outing a lot of the senior players – they’re not producing at the required level I just don’t think we’re going to get that much for Auba – I didn’t think we’d get what people were quoting before all this started and that’s even less now.

Freddie Ljungberg

Marc

He only has that salary for 1 more year though and he can’t be delusional enough to think any big club is going to be in for him. Most he can hope for if he stays another year is maybe 50k from Fener. Would he trade that for that 5m from us, another 5 mill from them in signing on fee and a 3 year contract at 100k?
He probably would if he was still interested in playing football. So the chances are pretty slim.

Micheal

ES: The secrecy surrounding Kroenke’s ownership is a sizeable problem for anyone trying to understand the affairs at Arsenal. But you are correct in emphasising the focus on reduce wages by recruiting cheaper plerys and removing the higher paid, where possible. However I seem to recall that many of our transfers last year – notably Pepe – were arranged in instalments, as happens with most large deals. We mortgaged the future. I don’t have the figures to hand, but I have a feeling the “net” spend in the 2018-19 financial year was closer to Pedro’s estimate. A large part of… Read more »

Freddie Ljungberg

Marc 60-70m for Laca and Auba combined and I’d take it. That seems doable even now. Teams have different needs. If Barca want Martinez for example they can easily sell off 3-4 players or more to finance that, it doesn’t have to be swaps, there’s always a demand for low to middle priced players, Inter can then use that money to buy 3-4 players that they need. Ridiculous to think that we’re only going to see straight swaps now. Or that all clubs are going to hold on to their players. Soumares latest price puts him at 35m and Edouard… Read more »

CG

Michael

“”””We mortgaged the future””””

We did. (I commented on it.)
And we will pay for it.

And Raul wont be around when the bailiffs come knocking.

Marc

Freddie

I really think you need to prepare yourself for the fact that we will not be signing Upamecano – don’t get me wrong I’d be happy if we did but I can’t see anything next season beyond Mari, Saliba, Luiz and most likely Holding. Hopefully we managed to shift on Sok and Mustafi.

The above back 4 will be done for minimal new outlay we then need to focus our money on CM and getting rid of Xhaka.

Freddie Ljungberg

Marc

Like I said, I’d only add another CB if we have the extra cash for it. It’s not a priority for me this season.

Although if we could snap up Upa for the reported 35m I think we should go all in so we don’t have to touch that position in the next 10 years.

Marc

Freddie

You think in the current financial football climate someone’s going to play £40 million for a 31 one year old with a year left on his contract and then offer him a 2 or 3 year deal on £250k per week?

Freddie Ljungberg

I don’t think it’s impossible that someone like Inter for example if they sell Martinez for 70m or so that they could spend 30m on Auba, he would still have another 3 year in him in Serie A. No one is going to pay him 250k, and he’s not making that now either. If he wants to play in another league he’ll take a reasonable wage, if not he’ll stay. At 32 his options as a free agent isn’t going to be significantly better anyway in this climate. I think he’s a lot more interested in playing football than someone… Read more »

Micheal

Freddie: “Ridiculous to think that we’re only going to see straight swaps now. Or that all clubs are going to hold on to their players.”

Players will only be sold if there is willing buyer – not because clubs like Arsenal have a load of over-paid clowns we would like to sell. The transfer market is dead to most clubs, which leaves swaps the only realistic option for the majority.

Marc

Freddie

Yeah but if someone’s paying £30 million for Auba then you’ve got to reduce the money for Laca as well to circa £20 million.

You’re potential £70 million has just hit £50 million in about 4 minutes – what’s it going to be in another 15 minutes.

andy1886

If you’ve read the article in The Athletic on PL finances then you’ll know that AFC’s wages to turnover is 63% while Liverpool’s is 58% (so a little better). As mentioned previously Arsenal and Spurs are the two clubs that rely most heavily on gate receipts. While accepting that those ratios may have changed slightly (and during the previous season the wage bill of ‘Pool was only around £32m higher than Arsenal’s) then that is still likely to put our club in a disadvantageous position. That said it’s a bit like arguing over who is the tallest dwarf when you’re… Read more »

Freddie Ljungberg

Micheal

Like I said before, it doesn’t have to be a straight swap between two clubs for them to balance their books.

Some clubs might sell a player for 30m and need 3-4 experienced players in other positions, that’s when we send them a highlight reel of Mustafi not falling over for 5 minutes straight.

Freddie Ljungberg

Marc

Laca is 27 and has 2 years left of his contract so isn’t really comparable.

I still think we could get 60-70m for both of them if we decided to sell, if you don’t think so that’s fine. I doubt we’re going to do it anyway, we’re too used to dealing in half measures.

Marc

“that’s when we send them a highlight reel of Mustafi not falling over for 5 minutes straight.”

Does that actually exist or are you going to fake it!

Marc

“that’s when we send them a highlight reel of Mustafi not falling over for 5 minutes straight.”

Next you’ll be putting a clip of Xhaka beating Usain Bolt in a sprint!

Freddie Ljungberg

Marc

You can do wonders with CGI these days.

Emiratesstroller

Michael A well run club should have organised its finances better than we have done in past. 1. Our transfer business should be conducted by spending the money we receive from club sponsorship [Adidas,Emirates and Rwanda] plus sales. 2. The wage bill and other expenses such as repayment of stadium debt should be covered by other revenues such as tv, champions league and of course ticket revenues. Arsenal’s current problems are down to our failure to qualify for Champions League and overinflated wage bill covering many of the players recruited prior to this season. Spending £200K pw on Mkhitaryan and… Read more »

Micheal

Freddie: Your logic is perfectly sound – if you expect clubs to fork out £30m for an individual player. You are basing your argument on player values pre-Covid. The world has changed. In pure economic terms, a player is only worth what someone else is going to pay for him. Most estimates I have seen reckon transfer values have dropped by a minimum of 30%. But that refers only to the very top quality players who are in demand. My view is that the market in average to middleweight players (Ozil, Mustafi, etc) has disappeared altogether. These players are virtually… Read more »

Freddie Ljungberg

Micheal.

So if club A has a player worth 10m does he have to swap him to club B for an equivalent player or can he sell him to club C instead and get another 10m player that they actually want or 2 5m players? So many permutations are possible and reducing it to duh straight swaps duh is just stupid.

According to reports Upas price has dropped from 60m to 40m€, there will still be buyers for him at that price, might not be us, but someone will snap him up if available and count that as a bargain.

Micheal

ES: I cannot argue with your summary. And without wishing to tread well-trodden ground, Kroenke’s hand-off approach allowed the executives to mismanage Arsenal for years. This was obviously acceptable during the Champions League years, but even Josh K’s recent arrival is too little too late and it will take a number of years to repair the damage. Covid19 will make recovery that much harder.

Micheal

Freddie: If your assessment of Upa is correct, his transfer value has dropped by 33% in a matter of weeks. And he is apparently a player in demand.

Ozil, Mustafi, etc are not in demand. They are virtually worthless in the current transfer market. I do not disagree with you about the complications of swapping, but I would suggest that the transfer market as we knew it is dead.

Marc

Micheal

We couldn’t shift Ozil before all this started so even mentioning him is a waste of time. He’ll go on a free next summer.

We might be able to shift Mustafi on for £5 ish million if he’s interested in getting some football. This is where we have to be ruthless once we select players we want off the books then they don’t train with the main squad and aren’t picked for matches no matter what.

Dissenter

Emirates You’re still afflicted with the Wenger-nomics paradigm A large cash balance was never needed to run a successful club. We built up that hefty cash hoard partly due to commitments from the Emirates statdium and due to Wenger’s dithering and planning. Liverpool do have elite players to sell. I don’t but all the buyers/sellers market nonsense. There are always opportunities in every situation, the same folks that sold houses with faulty mortgagees made a killing in buying up the same distressed properties cheap after the 2008 recession. Some players like Sadio Mane will still go for a lot of… Read more »

Dissenter

*don’t buy the buyers/sellers market nonsense.

Dissenter

Freddie
“According to reports Upas price has dropped from 60m to 40m€, there will still be buyers for him at that price, might not be us, but someone will snap him up if available and count that as a bargain.”

Precisely
The prices may be lower but there will still be commerce with transfer of players. The player swap stuff is laughable.

Micheal

Marc: I hope you are right about Mustafi. In the current climate, I suspect that many clubs will take anything they can get for players – just to get money onto the books. All earlier player valuations are meaningless.

Marc

Micheal

Mustafi’s only got a year left on his contract and at 27 / 28 he might look at securing a longer term future it’ll come down to where his reputation is in Germany / Spain etc.

Freddie Ljungberg

Micheal

So transfer prices drop 30% for everyone else but our players are worth nothing now? Seems legit. I’ll get the lifeboats then.

Marc

Freddie

According to CG Sanllehi sold the life boats for a large cup of coffee so sorry you’re out luck.

Sid

Avoid Partey at all cost, thank me later, its Simeones system making him look better than he is,
The game changer for arsenal is a technically superioor CAM to dictate the tempo, keep possesion, such a player combining with Saka on the left will ease the pressure on our midfield and CBs

Im telling you this for free!

Freddie Ljungberg

No life boats? We’re doomed, doooomeeedd

Emiratesstroller

Dissenter You seem to miss the point I am making. In current situation many clubs have a cash flow problem. I don’t believe that Arsenal is one of them, because we have a ‘bank balance’ which is second largest in EPL if not in Europe. Liverpool have even now according to Swiss Ramble a much lower bank balance and one should not forget that they were also planning to rebuild one of their stands. Moreover I doubt that Liverpool want to sell most of their current squad and in particular their best players. Arsenal in contrast have probably half our… Read more »

Danny

Laca is 27 and has 2 years left of his contract so isn’t really comparable.
————————-
Laca will be 29 in 3 weeks.

Freddie Ljungberg

Danny

Well, I’ll be damned. No soup for me.

My other points still stands though.

Dissenter

Emirates
Why do you think Liverpool bought Takumi Minamino.
Successful clubs move players out ALL THE TIME, for profit and to keep competition up.
Liverpool will sell another big player soon, that how they [and other big clubs] operate.
It’s only at Arsenal that we are scared shitless to sell a striker with one year left on his contract.

Micheal

“So transfer prices drop 30% for everyone else but our players are worth nothing now? Seems legit. I’ll get the lifeboats then.”

The 30% drop in transfer values (estimates by others) relates to players in demand. Such as Upa, Neymar, etc.

The important difference is that Ozil, Mustafi, etc are not in demand – and if they are it would be for cut-price, fire sale prices. This is not an Arsenal issue – it is an issue for football.

Guns of SF

Who is going to pay us what we want for Auba? 50M???
Inter will try to get him at a reduced rate if they sell Lautaro to Barca but his salary demands would be prohibitive to them.
I think he stays… I hope that Ozil fucks off next summer and his salary can be split up to give raises to our players who we want to keep.
Covid has put things on ICE in transfer land… this summer will see very little player movement

Guns of SF

acutally i take that back
Ozil will fuck off next summer. Good riddance scum

Valentin

Emirate Stroller, What was suggested was that Arsenal had a net cashflow spending of £45 millions and that’s exactly what the number ended up. We stayed within our limit while overspending the net amount by paying our purchases in installment and therefore taking cash from the next 5 years transfer budget. We are paying Saliba £30 millions over 5 years, so only £6 millions per year. Tierney contract was structured with more initial payments, but Pepe’s deal with the agents fees is the equivalent of £18 millions per year for 5 years. The idea is that within 2 years, Özil… Read more »

Sid

Lautaro is the new Andrea Belloti

Im telling you for free!

Emiratesstroller

Dissenter Use a bit of common sense we are talking about the current situation and not what has happened in the past. Last summer Arsenal offloaded something like 10 first team players and apart from Iwobi we generated in transfer revenues about £7 Million which was the same as we earned from Bielek an U23 squad player. On paper these players were valued by Transfermarkt at over £100 million so they were fairly meaningless in the light of what they were sold for. Arsenal’s problem was a combination of failure to qualify for Champions League, too many players aged 30+,… Read more »

jwl

I would be quite surprised if there are more sales than trades this summer, a nuclear bomb has been dropped on football clubs, and all other businesses. That is not easy to recover from and vast majority of clubs don’t have huge cash balances, teams will be swapping players for a while. And I am far from convinced that international transfers will happen at all now because of how off kilter all different leagues are at the moment. Some leagues still hoping to finish season while others have had their season cancelled early. How do you align all the different… Read more »

Graham62

Henry on sky with Jamie Redknapp.

Going through some of his great goals.

A legend and a half.

The way he talks about Arsenal and Highbury, emotional stuff.

jwl

And I also wonder if UEFA or individual leagues will pass rule that bans the few mega rich clubs from buying a bunch of players at reduced cost because other teams are in dire need of cash?

It is not particularly fair if the two manc clubs and chelsea can buy up all the talented players from distressed clubs while everyone else has liquidity issues and can only trade players.

Uwot?

Partey is the real deal Sid.& I’m charging you for that……

Guns of SF

We need to get really creative to get Partey.
what is he at? 45m?

Marc

jwl

How the hell do you enforce that? You think UEFA or FIFA are going to set player values? What happens if they say Mane (for example) is worth £50 million which someone is willing to pay but Liverpool don’t want to sell at that price?

I’d also point out that Abamovich has stopped bank rolling Chelsea to the degree he used to and with City having a CL ban if they go crazy spending they’ll fall even further foul of FFP rules.

Guns of SF

Still waiting PSG to get the hatchet for the Neymar deal.

The mega rich teams are the dirtiest in the biz.

Terraloon

ER

Don’t know if you have seen this site but the suggestion is that a fall in basic wage costs may not be the case at all

https://financialfootballnews.com/category/arsenal/

Terraloon

Marc

As I pointed out before and as confirmed RA has not stopped bankrolling Chelsea.

Marc

Terraloon

He has not been spending like he used to – I think the transfer ban has over shadowed the effect of him losing his VISA.

We’ll see over the next couple of years.

Terraloon

Marc

Here’s what The Swiss Rambler said in his assessment of Chelsea’s 2018/19 Accounts

“Since Abramovich acquired the club, he has put £1.2 bln into the club (including a chunky £247m in 2019), split £876m loan & £350m share capital. Most of this funding has been seen on the pitch with a massive £1.1 bln (83%) spent on players (net), while £164m went on capex.

Marc

Terraloon

Those figures are for last season – would the sales in the summer of 2019 appear in them?

Terraloon

Marc

No. They reflect their trading year 31/5/2019.

Based on transfer league , and if you include Morata, they made £192 million from sales with just Kovacics deal completed due in part to their transfer ban but also of course the fact that they have had to promote so many academy players to their first team squad.

Marc

Terraloon

I’m not saying he didn’t put money in before. The £247 million in 2019 could have been an advance on not being able to buy in the summer 2019 and having Hazard leave.

I’m not going to argue with Swiss Rambler’s analysis on the numbers but there needs to be a context.

jwl

Marc – I didn’t say anything about UEFA setting players values, I was thinking it or individual leagues could ban buy/sell players but allow trades for this summer only, or they could limit how much each club is allowed to spend to make things more equal.

But I am also sure there will be many distressed clubs who need to sell players to raise cash to pay bills, it is difficult situation.

Marc

Terraloon

So you’re saying they made £192 million from sales but Abramovich still put in £247 million?

Marc

jwl

I don’t understand what you’re suggesting – banning transfers but allowing them for this summer – do you mean only allowing swap deals? – putting a transfer cap on clubs?

Can’t see any of that working. If City try to flout the rules chances are the other clubs will go after them through FFP.

jwl

Marc – I don’t really know what I am suggesting either, I’ve not spent much time thinking about it.

I am Canadian and was thinking about North America sports rules, where players are traded, not bought/sold, and there is transfer cap. It is not really fair that 6-8 teams across Europe can buy/sell whoever they want while all other teams need to trade players because they have no cash to spend.

And it would be for this summer only, I much prefer buy/sell model of European football than how American sports leagues operate.

Marc

jwl

As Pedro alluded to earlier if the Barca exec’s are talking about swap deals I’d guess all teams are going to be in much the same boat. Woodward has already talked about ManU having to realign their targets from Kane / Sancho types to something lower.

Terraloon

Marc RA put in the £247m in one trading year which ended on 31/5/19. In the summer 2019 and Januray 2020 transfer window they sold £192 million worth of players .These sales will be reflected in their 31/5/20 accounts. Although it’s probable that the Morata sale won’t be appearing until the 31/5/21 accounts as he is on loan with AM till 31/5/20. My guess is that the £247 m was used to fund their 2018 purchases which cost them the best part of £185 million, to pay of Conte & pay Saris release fee which together was rumoured to be… Read more »

Dissenter

Marc
“As Pedro alluded to earlier if the Barca exec’s are talking about swap deals I’d guess all teams are going to be in much the same boat”

Same way everyone started buying players at 130 million because Barca executives did it?
Barca are also broke because they’ve been dog-shit at transfers. They can talk swap until they turn blue in the face, no one else if following them. Clubs need the flexibility cash more than anything else.

jwl

Marc – now that you questioned me when I was just talking shite, I think the two manc clubs, Chelsea, PSG, and maybe Bayern have unfair advantage this summer. I don’t know about two Spanish clubs, their finances always murky because they seem to get unconditional support from banks. And what does Woodward mean when he talking about realignment? Does he mean club would have paid $150 million for Kane or Sancho but now club can only afford $40 million or are they now looking at buying Giroud for second string duties? What is bothering me is that there are… Read more »

Emiratesstroller

The agents acting for Saka are Elite Project. They act also for Sancho, Iwobi and FOUR other Arsenal players who are Nkietah, Nelson, Omole and Balogun. Looking at this Agency’s published accounts they appear to be insolvent and have been recently struck off by Companies House for non presentation of accounts. One of the original shareholders has also left the company. So there should be considerable concern about what is going on with both Saka and for that matter Sancho at Borussia Dortmund who is also on their books. One has to ask the question is this agency more interested… Read more »