Will transfers recover?

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Happy Friday to you all, who’s hitting a Virtual Happy Hour this evening?

Yeah? Can I join? PLEASE.

What an absolutely crazy time. I moved halfway around the world for the American dream, which currently has me sitting in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years scared to pick up the post. To make matters worse, there’s an outbreak in the building… and get this, the person above me is a ball bouncer and his little shit of a dog has nails that are too long so he scratches across the wood floors like a 5-year-old on ice skates.

I am not built for home life.

Though I will say, I’ve taken up this new diet and exercise regime that seems to be working nicely. I start the day with a Yoga class, which if you haven’t tried, is fucking brutal… but you do feel smug. My class teacher said this.

‘I want you to focus your energy on that lower leg. Channel yourself. Imagine you’re sending all your energy to those that need it in the world right now’

So I did, and you know what? I honestly think I made a difference. Anyway, I then starve myself for the entire day, then I drink beer freely in the evening with carrots. It’s working out so far.

In the world of football news, Mikel Arteta dropped a prezzer on this 39th birthday from what looked like a shower room. He’s back fighting fit and telling us to stay at home. Solid messaging.

The Premier League story has started to deviate from ‘IT MUST FINISH’ to Dave Ornstein dropping this great quote from a top dog at a club.

“The fact is they are not as important as a Tesco delivery driver at this time. We run a game. No more, no less. There is no place for sport at the moment.”

You simply can’t knock that comment. The country doesn’t need much of an excuse to break quarantine… the idea that we’d shove football in their faces and expect civil obedience after seems a reach. It is just football. If the season is voided, nothing terrible is going to happen, especially compared to the nightmare of more people getting sick, particularly footballers who are very public-facing.

I also wonder whether the fact Boris has been infected might shift the severity of the thinking for the league in the direction of voiding the season. When you can’t keep the top geezer in the UK Gov healthy, what chance do you have when you’re sending footballers up and down the country to finish off games? At the very earliest, June ‘could’ see a restart, but that seems unrealistic to me.

Word on Boris Johnson. Isn’t it incredible how so many of the folk who bleat about compassion on the daily are more than happy to revel in the leader of our country picking up a horrible illness? Very grim. Especially after he delivered for business, salaried workers and now the self-employed in a way that has never been matched and stands as one of the most generous packages on the planet. Sure, mistakes have happened, but name a country that dropping a 10/10 performance so far? Very few. Those that have had the benefit of recent mass spread disease experience.

There’s a lot of talk about the club commemorating Arsene Wenger this summer. There’s apparently going to be a statue and a stand named after him. No doubt the man deserves this sort of treatment, he’s a legend in every sense of the word, but as I’ve said before, this is a guy that’s desperate to get back into competitive sport… and he’s being eulogized like he’s dead. Who wants to be the statue guy when you’re trying to find work?

I find it odd that Arsenal is so eager to jump into things like that, but we do have a very vocal cuck element of our fanbase that eulogizes Alex Hleb’s tenure, reimagines Tomas Rosicky as a legend, and generally attaches themselves to twee stories that make me cringe. I’m totally game to commemorate the past, but I’d rather do that when we’ve something to celebrate on the pitch. We’re still dealing with the aftershocks of Wenger’s slow decline, we’re barely a top half of the table side at the moment, the timing seems odd… shifting any sort of focus from the massive project we have ahead of us seems very frivolous, but there we go.

Agents are trying to whip up interest in their players, we’re being linked with names, and some of ours are being hawked around the big leagues. We’ve been linked with Nabil Fekir, Raul Gimenez, and Ousmane Dembele. All lovely talents, but so far out of our price range it’s criminal… unless we sell all of our players for top dollar.

Even that proposition is under threat. On the last podcast I recorded, we asked the question: will transfers ever be the same? ESPN had these quotes from exBayern President, Uli Hoeness.

“It all stands and falls with the fact if we can play again this season,”

“Games without fans still guarantee the distribution of TV income and if that happens there will not be any existential problems for the 2019-20 season.

“But if we can’t play until Christmas — as the worst-case prognosis suggests — the entire league’s existence will be threatened.

“The illness is like the plague. We must wait. Those who forecast the return of football are nothing but charlatans.”

“The current situation is a threat, but also a chance to change the coordinates,”

“You can’t dictate it, but transfer fees in excess of €100 million will be a thing of the past for the next few years.

“The transfer fees will drop and will not return to the current level in the next two, three years. All countries are affected. There will most likely be a new footballing world.”

A few of the posters in the comments mused in the same direction. I think the reality of any business that depends on business from crowds is they’ll have to be smart with their money. The SwissRamble had the Premier League running at a loss, even with the HUGE TV revenues.

I think clubs, outside Arsenal, might consider building cash piles moving forward, just in case of future pandemics or force majeure like situations.

The economics of football are quite complicated… but I ‘might’ have a special guest who is expert in all things finance and football on the podcast next week, so keep your ears close for that one.

Ok, that’s me done for today. Stay safe this evening, download Animal Crossing, and have yourself a great time in the virtual outdoors where NOTHING can hurt you. ALSO, PLEASE LISTEN TO THE PODCAST.

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Micheal

“..maybe some of the opposition shadow minsters should take that on.”

Marc, stick to football. There is less scope to appear as a half-demented, raving Travis Bickel character.

Valentin

Spanish Dave, I despise Trump and history will judge him unsympathetically for his inadequate response to the COVID-19 crisis, but ultimately whoever would have been in charge would have been dealt a bad hand. The pandemic just showed that countries with a strong central government with a competent leader at the helm have been barely able to survive that challenge. Even countries with previously considered efficient healthcare system have been overwhelmed. The only possible response would have been to heed China’s dire warning and do the followings: + Immediate Closure of all outside borders + Immediate testing of anybody coming… Read more »

Marc

Micheal

I think I’ll comment on anything I want to. The only person who has any right on here to control what is discussed is Pedro.

Rather than trying to appear clever – something that’s clearly beyond you – maybe you should keep up to date with current affairs. I suggest Emily Thornberry’s anti Trump rant in the Commons a couple of weeks ago as a starting point.

Jamie

Valentin –

I’m afraid you’ve got it backwards. Derivatives made up of junk-bonds and mortgage-backed securities fuelled the sub-prime market, not the other way around. Junk bonds have been issued for well over 200 years in the US, btw. You know this already though.

Without unregulated credit default swaps [allegedly] insuring potential losses, there wouldn’t have been any appetite for packaging up more subprime mortgages.

Hard to believe a quant with a decade of experience wouldn’t know this.

Marc

The thing that started the ball rolling on the crash was the repeal of the Glass Steagall by Clinton 99.

I heard a recording after the crash of a Congressman or Senator giving a speech in the House / Senate that was made as the vote went through, he listed a course of events that would happen if the bill was repealed – he got it spot on.

Marc

by Clinton in 99 – should have read!

Spanishdave

Valentine Your using hindsight for your point of view, and a distaste of Trump to cloud your judgement. Trump has top quality advisors who appear almost nightly with him to let everyone know what the situation is, he gives the floor to them all to report of various aspects. I have just returned from America and have watched most nights for the last month these reports. He is trying to keep up moral and hope. He’s an optimist and knows how important the economy is and if it collapses the consequences are more than the cause. The World economy feeds… Read more »

Micheal

“I think I’ll comment on anything I want to. The only person who has any right on here to control what is discussed is Pedro.”

Marc, I am not attempting a Bamford-like role of policing the blog by dictating who says what or which invididuals post. Nothing to do with me. But as an observation, I’d say you appear more stable and less unhinged if you stick to football – and it is a football blog.

Valentin

Jamie,

You are making my point exactly.
People were packaging junk bonds into financial products and offer protection for those products via CD products. When the junk bonds failed, then the CD failed. Derivatives allows the irrationality of prices to be hidden much longer and therefore bubble go much longer and crisis are much bigger.
Credit Derivatives amplified the crisis but did not cause it. Junk bonds existed and they caused crisis even before derivatives existed.
The same the Dot.com bubble was not caused by equity derivatives but by IPO and equity pricing exuberance.

alex cutter

“I have just returned from America and have watched most nights for the last month these reports.”

I thought I noticed the smell improving.

Valentin

Spanish Dave, Reread what I wrote. I clearly stated that Trump response has been inadequate but that he and all the Western governments have been put into an impossible situation. No western government would have been able to take the correct course of action without pushback by libertarians. Only gullible genuinely believe that narcissistic Trump wants to keep the economy open for the benefit of people rather than for his own re-election chances. Regarding his advisors, most of the competent people are people that were left behind from previous administrations. Look at the people whom he named at FEMA and… Read more »