Will transfers recover?

by .

Happy Friday to you all, who’s hitting a Virtual Happy Hour this evening?

Yeah? Can I join? PLEASE.

What an absolutely crazy time. I moved halfway around the world for the American dream, which currently has me sitting in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years scared to pick up the post. To make matters worse, there’s an outbreak in the building… and get this, the person above me is a ball bouncer and his little shit of a dog has nails that are too long so he scratches across the wood floors like a 5-year-old on ice skates.

I am not built for home life.

Though I will say, I’ve taken up this new diet and exercise regime that seems to be working nicely. I start the day with a Yoga class, which if you haven’t tried, is fucking brutal… but you do feel smug. My class teacher said this.

‘I want you to focus your energy on that lower leg. Channel yourself. Imagine you’re sending all your energy to those that need it in the world right now’

So I did, and you know what? I honestly think I made a difference. Anyway, I then starve myself for the entire day, then I drink beer freely in the evening with carrots. It’s working out so far.

In the world of football news, Mikel Arteta dropped a prezzer on this 39th birthday from what looked like a shower room. He’s back fighting fit and telling us to stay at home. Solid messaging.

The Premier League story has started to deviate from ‘IT MUST FINISH’ to Dave Ornstein dropping this great quote from a top dog at a club.

“The fact is they are not as important as a Tesco delivery driver at this time. We run a game. No more, no less. There is no place for sport at the moment.”

You simply can’t knock that comment. The country doesn’t need much of an excuse to break quarantine… the idea that we’d shove football in their faces and expect civil obedience after seems a reach. It is just football. If the season is voided, nothing terrible is going to happen, especially compared to the nightmare of more people getting sick, particularly footballers who are very public-facing.

I also wonder whether the fact Boris has been infected might shift the severity of the thinking for the league in the direction of voiding the season. When you can’t keep the top geezer in the UK Gov healthy, what chance do you have when you’re sending footballers up and down the country to finish off games? At the very earliest, June ‘could’ see a restart, but that seems unrealistic to me.

Word on Boris Johnson. Isn’t it incredible how so many of the folk who bleat about compassion on the daily are more than happy to revel in the leader of our country picking up a horrible illness? Very grim. Especially after he delivered for business, salaried workers and now the self-employed in a way that has never been matched and stands as one of the most generous packages on the planet. Sure, mistakes have happened, but name a country that dropping a 10/10 performance so far? Very few. Those that have had the benefit of recent mass spread disease experience.

There’s a lot of talk about the club commemorating Arsene Wenger this summer. There’s apparently going to be a statue and a stand named after him. No doubt the man deserves this sort of treatment, he’s a legend in every sense of the word, but as I’ve said before, this is a guy that’s desperate to get back into competitive sport… and he’s being eulogized like he’s dead. Who wants to be the statue guy when you’re trying to find work?

I find it odd that Arsenal is so eager to jump into things like that, but we do have a very vocal cuck element of our fanbase that eulogizes Alex Hleb’s tenure, reimagines Tomas Rosicky as a legend, and generally attaches themselves to twee stories that make me cringe. I’m totally game to commemorate the past, but I’d rather do that when we’ve something to celebrate on the pitch. We’re still dealing with the aftershocks of Wenger’s slow decline, we’re barely a top half of the table side at the moment, the timing seems odd… shifting any sort of focus from the massive project we have ahead of us seems very frivolous, but there we go.

Agents are trying to whip up interest in their players, we’re being linked with names, and some of ours are being hawked around the big leagues. We’ve been linked with Nabil Fekir, Raul Gimenez, and Ousmane Dembele. All lovely talents, but so far out of our price range it’s criminal… unless we sell all of our players for top dollar.

Even that proposition is under threat. On the last podcast I recorded, we asked the question: will transfers ever be the same? ESPN had these quotes from exBayern President, Uli Hoeness.

“It all stands and falls with the fact if we can play again this season,”

“Games without fans still guarantee the distribution of TV income and if that happens there will not be any existential problems for the 2019-20 season.

“But if we can’t play until Christmas — as the worst-case prognosis suggests — the entire league’s existence will be threatened.

“The illness is like the plague. We must wait. Those who forecast the return of football are nothing but charlatans.”

“The current situation is a threat, but also a chance to change the coordinates,”

“You can’t dictate it, but transfer fees in excess of €100 million will be a thing of the past for the next few years.

“The transfer fees will drop and will not return to the current level in the next two, three years. All countries are affected. There will most likely be a new footballing world.”

A few of the posters in the comments mused in the same direction. I think the reality of any business that depends on business from crowds is they’ll have to be smart with their money. The SwissRamble had the Premier League running at a loss, even with the HUGE TV revenues.

I think clubs, outside Arsenal, might consider building cash piles moving forward, just in case of future pandemics or force majeure like situations.

The economics of football are quite complicated… but I ‘might’ have a special guest who is expert in all things finance and football on the podcast next week, so keep your ears close for that one.

Ok, that’s me done for today. Stay safe this evening, download Animal Crossing, and have yourself a great time in the virtual outdoors where NOTHING can hurt you. ALSO, PLEASE LISTEN TO THE PODCAST.


111 Responses to “Will transfers recover?”

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  1. DM

    Lol sorry Boomslang, I haven’t been around much for a while but thought I’d nick myself one today 🙂 Hope you (and everyone) are staying safe

  2. Uwot?

    Er sorry peas but “ little Mozart” Rosicky is definitely 100% a leg.No question.Not even up for debate.Shame on you.Anyway.moving on.I see Partey is about to sign an extension with Athletico.so bang goes that idea.Thats if it was ever on the cards from Arsenal? Must say I like the cut of the jib from one Carlos solver.reminds me of a young man called cesc.v.interesting.As for Nobby fekir.Tjink hes price range is in our bracket.i.e packet of fags & a six pack.so who knows?

  3. TR7


    ‘Imagine Trump’s reaction if the smear campaign that the Chinese government tried to kick-start about the virus originating from the US was proven correct.
    The American virus…
    I can see another #TrumpMeldown moment if that became true.’

    There’s no smear campaign from Trump. China certainly is the conspirator behind Corono outbreak across the world. Trump being a flip-floper that he is will eventually backtrack from his stated position on China but Corona is a Chinese creation. Corona reaches 200 countries within 2 months but does not hit Shanghai or Beijing. 100,000 people across the world are getting infected everyday but apparantly there are no new cases in China. They are now selling detective kits and health apparatus to countries such as Spain which are struggling to cope up with the Chinese virus.

  4. Marc

    “Word on Boris Johnson. Isn’t it incredible how so many of the folk who bleat about compassion on the daily are more than happy to revel in the leader of our country picking up a horrible illness?”

    They’re known as lefty cunts. Are vermin, always have been and always will be.

  5. TR7

    *Defective not detective

    It is a crying shame that tough questions are not being asked from China. Trump rattled China by questioning their role in the Corona outbreak but most leaders don’t want to lock horns with mighty China.

  6. Marc


    Should also add nice piece and thanks for keeping up the posts when there’s very little to write about.

    With regard to you upstairs neighbour I thought the Yanks had an purpose built solution to that – gun crime, just shoot the fucker – obviously not the dog.

    I’d never condone killing an animal unless in self defence or if it tastes good.

  7. TR7

    ‘Maybe mature leaders have better things to do at the moment and think recriminations are for another time?’

    No, they are chickening out due to the global standing of China. If the virus emanted from North Korea, Iran or say Hungry or Poland, their tune would have been different.

  8. Valentin


    Did you read what I wrote before posting?

    Nowhere in my post did I make a reference to a smear campaign initiated by Trump.
    The smear campaign I was referring was clearly the one instigated by the Chinese government that the virus originated from a US Soldier.

    Here is their latest spin. A US military racing cyclist who attended the CISM World Military Games in Wuhan in November spread the virus there. They even named her. China is alleging that she was a diplomatic security officer who did a tour in Africa. And that she either caught during her stint in Africa or was unknowingly infected by the US government. Covid-19 is believed to have mutated from bat and pangolin in a wet market. As Pangolin are quite common in some African wet market, that give to their lies a veneer of plausibility.

    Despite being evidently bullshit, the WHO and other medical organisations are forced to investigate the possibility. By mixing lies with truth, China is hoping to confuse the issue.

    Like I said, I would just find it funny if that silly conspiracy theory was proven correct. That a US service woman has unknowingly spread the virus. That would lead to another #TrumpMeltdown.

  9. Sid

    “fanbase that eulogizes Alex Hleb’s tenure, reimagines Tomas Rosicky as a legend, ”

    Also include Skodran Baresi, reborn xhakalson/ozil

    You heard it here 1st!

  10. Marc


    Rubbish the shit’s hitting the fan and any responsible leader focuses on dealing with the major issue at hand not recriminations.

    Your house is on fire what do you prioritise, getting your family out and putting the fire out or giving a description to the police of who started it?

  11. Redtruth

    Downing Street has claimed it failed to take part in an EU scheme to source life-saving ventilators to treat coronavirus because it accidentally missed the deadline.

    No 10 initially said it did not take part because the UK was “no longer a member” and was “making our own efforts”.

    But after critics accused Boris Johnson of putting “Brexit over breathing”, a No 10 spokesman clarified that it had missed out because of an error and would consider participating in future. It is understood the UK claims not to have received an email from the EU asking it to participate.

    Talk about incompetent shameful

  12. TR7


    ‘Like I said, I would just find it funny if that silly conspiracy theory was proven correct. That a US service woman has unknowingly spread the virus. That would lead to another #TrumpMeltdown.’

    I read your post. I still can’t understand why would you talk about a ‘silly’ conspiracy theory proving to be correct. Chinese were rattled by Trump calling Covid 19 a Chinese virus and in their frustration they cooked up a bizarre accusation in the hope it would shut up Trump. It is unfortunate but not at all surprising that Trump could not hold firm on his stand.

  13. Valentin


    Trump Meltdown had nothing to do with holding firm against China, it was just that he could not handle things not going his way. Unable to force a medical catastrophe to bend to his will.

    Attacking a journalist because he dared asking him a question (that everybody else agree was not a nasty or curve ball type of question) that he did not like was childish and petty.

    So was deliberately calling the virus Chinese virus instead of COVID-19.

    I would find it funny and ironic if the source of the virus was tracked to an US service woman. I would laugh about the mental gymnastic that Trump would be forced to adjust to that new reality. Imagine if Trump were questioned about it by a journalist. I know how he would react. In a very childish, petty and vindictive way.

    I would rather laugh than cry at the absurdity of Trump thinking that he is scoring point by calling COVID-19 Chinese virus, at the Chinese being offended by it when so many dies.

  14. CG


    “””””There’s a lot of talk about the club commemorating Arsene Wenger this summer. There’s apparently going to be a statue and a stand named after him. No doubt the man deserves this sort of treatment””””””

    One would like to see our Wengers statue juxtaposed with Herberts on the Arsenal concourse there.

    Our greatest two managers together at last.

    And once the Emirates stadium sponsorship ends. The Arsene Wenger Stadium sound so much more fitting.

    He deserves nothing less.


  15. Ishola70

    Italy sadly not over thi peak that commenters keep going on about.

    Today it’s highest death figures since the virus struck there = 969.

    Total deaths over 9,000.

    Ravaged country.

  16. Valentin


    There are blame on every side. China for trying to cover up the initial outbreak. The rest of the world for their complacent, and incompetence response to the crisis.

    While China was locking down their country. UK, France and a lot of other Western countries demanded that their citizens be evacuated back in plane rather being quarantined in China.

    A big number of these people came back and were never even put into quarantine nor did they self isolated.
    A friend a mine is a pneumology specialist in France. One of her first cases was a French business man who came from China already infected. As a business forign tourist, consulate intervene after he refused the test. China wanted to quarantine him, but he used his influence to come back. The idiot bragged to everybody how he successfully avoided the Chinese quarantine. He contaminated his entire family and now he alone survived. His wife, his diabetic kid, and both of his parents died.
    If France, UK, had taken the proper measures, we would have avoided most of the catastrophe. While China took drastic measure, most Western countries were complacent. Sneering at China and their lack of liberty.

    Now a big number of family here are crying over their dead loved ones.

    Even now we still have ridiculous level of laissez-faire. Very recently, a former colleague of mine flew back from middle East. At Heathrow he queued at the custom and for his luggage. Near him was a family of people who were clearly ill. No check. Turn out that those people were just flying back from a funeral in Iran of a relative who had died from the virus. Iran is a hotbed for the virus and there was absolutely no quarantine nor check at Heathrow.
    He is trying to get tested to see if he need to self isolated. Was told by NHS111 to wait for symptom to develop before calling back for testing. In the meantime he is self isolating.

  17. TheLegendaryDB10


    Happy Friday to you all, who’s hitting a Virtual Happy Hour this evening?

    Yeah? Can I join? PLEASE.

    I have just tonight.

    On another note, great post Pedders.

    It just snacks of total greed (anything new??). I will be glad to see these greedy fucks (TV corps) eat their money and respect common decency to allow social distancing among players.

    Or did they think it was OK to get players sick in the name of greed just so they could make sure they and their investors pockets were lined?

    The fact that they wanted the prem league to carry on, just shows how greed is trying to kill any sense of common sense.

    Special guest? Is it Swiss Ramble? Our most knowledgeable finance Gooner?

  18. Pedro

    Un, you’ve spent the last 3 weeks going after Marc for saying this isn’t serious, and now you’re defending Donald Trump who is the chief ‘this isn’t serious’ merchant in the world, overseeing a total car crash that’ll cost lives and livelihoods?

    You have literally been the so-called ‘screeching minge’ on here for weeks. Now it’s ok because the most bigoted Pres in living history is being critiqued?

  19. Alexanderhenry


    ‘I find it odd that Arsenal is so eager to jump into things like that,’

    I don’t.
    Rewriting recent history as some kind of golden period for the club is a way of making the current regime look good.

    It’s all part of arsenal’s slightly creepy plan to lower expectations.

  20. TheLegendaryDB10

    And hello to y’all. Gave myself a break from the Le Grove madness to focus on the actual madness out there.

    Pedro, the reason I am happy that BoJo has Covid-19 is that it may help him just about become a little human again.

    For me all these financial packages just shows how bullshit Economics is. When it threatens their paymasters, they’ll do anything to give them want they want. It just shows how fictional the current system we live in is.

    As i discovered in the forward of one of the Economics book I bought in my uni days:

    It stated that all current economics was just a theory.

    And it’s so true. We are living in an economy where everything is based on someone’s perception of how this should work.

    No one seems to have realised that we can make money obsolete and still move on.

  21. Aussie Gooner


    Would love to join in the Virtual Happy Hour but unfortunately I will be at work trying to stop the COVID 19 virus spread through my workplace! I have volunteered to work in the viral wing – I will see what PPE my work is providing before deciding though! Have one for me!

  22. Marc

    “going after Marc for saying this isn’t serious”

    I never said it wasn’t serious I said don’t panic or over react.

    Keep a sense of perspective and most important of all keep safe.

  23. TheLegendaryDB10

    Aussie Gooner

    All the best of luck to you in doing this.

    I’ll add this unless you already know (which I hope you do):

    Make sure you wear a n95 mask at least. You’ll need it if you have regular interactions with infected people.

    Avoid touching surfaces as it is how it spreads. SARS-CoV-2 stays alive for at least upto 5 days on most surfaces.

    And… wash your hands thoroughly at all times (and at all costs avoid touching your face. That will be hard, but it’s a must.)

    You got my respect for doing your all to fight this virus.

  24. Pedro

    Jamie, I have… quite amazing.

    I don’t mean to get political, but the Rs are absolutely insane. I can normally see a semblance of strategy, but this Easter thing is beyond the fucking pale.

    ‘The shrieking liberals’ commentary is going to look pretty rim when this rips through Florida and the red states. Absolutely horrendous that anyone would politicise something as serious as this, but here we are.

  25. TheLegendaryDB10


    They have done exactly that. They flexed their muscles as if it would only touch the little people (shout it out if you know the film I’m intentionally referencing ). Just look at how BoJo has got it.

    They tried to play with Mother Nature and they’re gonna pay for it.

  26. N5

    Hi guys. It’s been a long time but just popped over to wish everyone well and hope you are all keeping safe with your families.

  27. N5

    Cheers Marc and DB10. Worrying times indeed and I’m missing everything that I took for granted. I’ve been rewatching old Henry goals just to keep me ticking over.

    Hope you’re all doing OK?

  28. Tony

    Good to see you’re well, same wishes to you and your family.

    Miss your observational humour and Arsenal chat her.

    Be safe and well.

  29. Sid

    Now the less affluent Europeans will get a taste of what extra checks (profiling) feels like at airports,

    Im telling you this for free!

  30. Sid

    A big appreciation to the refuse collection workers and other workers that provide essential services we do not seem to notice.

  31. TheLegendaryDB10


    Let’s just hope that they come up with the “difficult” decision to cancel all games until we have SARS-CoV-2 under control (vaccination; hoping we actually find a way to defeat that bastard).

    Anything but, and we should rightfully protest. As much as players earn far too much money, we still should be backing the decision to not play football until the virus, and the disease causesd by it, is under control.

  32. Bojangles

    Covid 19 is not a human engineered virus. It was not introduced into China by the US army (LW conspiracy theory) nor from the Wuhan Institute of Virology Lab (RW conspiracy theory.) It is unclear at the moment whether it made the jump direct from bat to human or if an intermediary animal was involved. I imagine this will be discovered in due course.

  33. Tom

    All the minge holes still screeching about trump but predicable avoiding addressing china’s role in this. They made it. This whole mess is theirs. The world need to hold them to account.
    A bit curious as to why you’ve got your head so far up Trump’s ass, Un.
    Was it his support for Brexit that did it for you, or the overt racism, or both?
    You know , Trump wouldn’t give two shits about Brexit if it weren’t for Putin.

    Most people capable of chewing gum while walking can distinguish between where the virus came from and how someone not responsible for unleashing it is dealing with it , and Trump has been winging it like most things he’s ever faced. Unfortunately he can’t sue or counter sue a virus into submission as he has in most cases of adversity.

  34. Habesha Gooner

    Pedro, glad you are doing well.
    Anyway to football, I think huge money Transfers are going to be a thing of the past for the next 3 to 5 years if this season isn’t going to resumed. Clubs haven’t been making profits, They were just going up in value. Owners valued the value of their investments against the little loss they were making every year. But now Everyone is going to be cautious, forget about moving on the likes of Mustafi for decent sums. We are going to have to coach players. Our midfield needs better though, And we could get decent players for low sums from desperate clubs. The good thing that’s going to come out of this is players will be given time to show what they are made of because clubs will need to be conservative in throwing away any player they buy. It will give the likes of Martinelli, Pepe, Saka all the time in the world to make their mark.

  35. Guns of Hackney

    Rosicky is not a legend. Sorry.
    Hleb, ditto.

    Boris has done amazingly well considering…but there will always be people revelling in someone else’s pain and misery. Least we forget, the man has a child on the way and a heavily pregnant partner. If we were under the other guy, we would already be fucking dead and buried or, under Russian control.

    Arsene deserves all the stands. A remarkable man who revolutionised British football. One of the greats.

    Football is proving itself to be as dumb as the majority of its fanbase. The season, cups etc are dead. It’s over. The virus and the future of the species is more import any than the scouse schleppers winning the title.

    I doubt that the season will even start next season either. This virus is a runaway train and will continue to destroy lives across the planet until a cure is found.

  36. Sid

    Waiting to see between EPl/ la liga/serie stadia, st peters basilica and al masjid al Haram which will resume 1st to know who’s the most deluded.

  37. Emiratesstroller

    I spoke yesterday again with my friend who is a senior scientist at School of
    Tropical Medicine in London. Her team of 15 is now the only staff still working
    at the School.

    Her expertise is Malaria and African diseases, but she does have feedback of what is going on with Coronavirus. She has advised me that it will reach its peak in the UK in the next two weeks.

    Obviously it is going to have a very serious outcome for those who contract serious symptoms, but the growing evidence is that so long as the country adopts current measures including self isolation the consequences will be
    less severe than in Spain and Italy.

    Naturally I discussed with her what will be the outcome in Africa. Obviously
    if there was a major outbreak it would be catastrophic because most countries on the Continent are poorly equipped to handle such a situation.

    However, one development coming out of the global outbreak is that the virus
    performs less well in hotter conditions, which may explain why countries in
    South East Asia have suffered less badly than those North of the Equator. If you
    look at temperatures there they range from 28-32 degrees celsius.

    By contrast temperatures in China, Japan and Korea have been in single digits
    and of course temperatures in UK and rest of Europe are also in winter/early
    spring mode.

    This will of course explain the Government and Medical advice that the country should delay as long as possible the peak of the outbreak.

  38. Valentin


    Tramp is not draining the swamp. He is part of it and during his presidency he expanded the swamp. Look at all the laws that he disbanded so that business could go about without any restrictions.
    His ideology of trying to limit government but at the same expanding the military is exactly why since Reagan and his vaudoo economy (term coined by George Bush senior) most republican presidents have had an initial boom before a bust during their second term.

  39. Valentin


    This is why some at the WHO are now advising hospitals in Africa to not use the air conditioning.
    Virus in droplets can survive up to 3 days on contact of metal, plastic surfaces at low temperature but degrade much more quickly if the temperature is above 28°C.

    I wonder if the government is going to tell people at risk to increase their heating situation at home.

  40. Nelson


    What is depressing is that Australia also has 3635 confirmed cases. It is Summer there and is known to be very hot. You think the air conditioning is at fault.

  41. alexanderhenry


    ‘Wenger was a selfish c*** who should of resigned 10 years before his sacking.’

    You’ve softened your stance. Wasn’t he a disaster from day one? Maybe Dein should have sacked him after his first season.

  42. TheLegendaryDB10


    In total agreement that Trump is part of the swamp. Greedy fuck that can only think for himself instead of others.


    The reason SARS-CoV-2 has spread so fast in Europe is due to all politicians sitting on their hands thinking that this won’t affect them. You just got to look at Macron’s pathetic posturing in the early days when he was machoistickly stating that they would not close the borders.

    Now France, Spain and Italy are in deep shit with hospitals having genuine problems with keeping up with the situation and are under-prepared (most medics are not wearing protective gear).

  43. Marc


    “However, one development coming out of the global outbreak is that the virus
    performs less well in hotter conditions”

    I’d add to that with as a usual “guide” hotter means more sunshine and UV light will kill off the virus so the more sunshine we get the better.

  44. Bob N16

    Unnaii ‘freedom of the individual’ is easy to support, what’s that got to do with Trump who is a narcissist and acts like a petulant child if his self-centred agenda is questioned?

    ‘Draining the swamp’ his cronyism and nepotism is hardly an advert for honest government.

  45. Valentin


    I don’t know if air conditioning is at fault, but I do know that most air conditioning unit just move air flow from one room to another without UV filtering between rooms. Basically moving infected droplet from one room to another.

    This is exactly why cruises are ground zero from breeding germs and viruses. Lots of people in a small environment breathing incessantly the same infected air again and again.

    The official recommendation for infected cruise boats is now to take everybody out of the boat and put them in quarantine on dry land. Do a deep clean of the boat and leave it in dry dock without any personnel on it.

    The kid of an acquaintance has severe asthma and allergy issues. In his self build house he has an air conditioning system that filter and purify air between each room. It was like twice/three time the price of a standard system, but it was worth it so his kid can live a normal life at home.
    There was an episode of Grand Design with a family with exactly the same issues.

  46. China1

    It’s hard to know what the numbers would be in the Southern Hemisphere if it wasn’t hot right now tho

    Evidently the virus is still potent in the summer but perhaps the numbers would be far higher by now under cooler temperatures. It was only a week or two back we were commenting how barely scathed the Southern Hemisphere has been relative to the northern hemisphere

    Re trump the guy is a xenophobe, a misogynist, a constant liar, a cheater, a hypocrite, petty and vindictive and a generally awful human being. People can like and support him as much as they want and that’s entirely their choice, but I hope they’ll be honest enough with themselves to admit he’s that even if they like his policies.

    Obama was called everything under the sun for so much less than trump by the same people who support him.

    Can anyone imagine the outrage if Obama had behaved in the same way lol. He’d have been considered a national disgrace. He actually was by most trump supporters by simple virtue of being a democrat

  47. Marc

    For all the guys in the UK – tonight on BBC 2 at 11.35 is Margin Call – really good film with a strong cast.

    Well worth watching / recording if you’ve got spare time on your hands!

  48. Sid

    The politically correct, spineless types , give peace meal aid loot with the other hand, are a bigger threat to the world than racist bigots atleast with the later WYSIWYG,
    you can plan accordingly, the former are sneaky

    Im telling you this for free!

  49. Valentin


    I like Margin Call, even if it is a little slow and not entirely realistic.
    I was a Quant for 10 years so work in that exact environment.
    There is a huge plot hole in Margin Call.
    If you have a formula that gives a different value than the rest of the world, the world price does not move instantly when it learn of your new formula. The market just assume that you are pricing things incorrectly.
    An external incident has to force the world to accept the new formula. I don’t remember that external event.
    For the sub-prime market collapse, it was the collapse of a few loan companies. And the fact that suddenly a few markers moved in the same direction at the same time. Every algorithm in the city and wall street was based on the same markers, so suddenly most people opinions of the sub-prime market switched at the same time.

  50. underrated Coq

    Looks like Pedro is a fan of the Chinese state, censoring any content written against them.

    I’m sure they’ll let you in the Country for your service. Congrats.

  51. Marc


    It’s a work of fiction that had a relevance to the world after Lehman’s going bust – chill out and enjoy the film.

    “For the sub-prime market collapse, it was the collapse of a few loan companies. And the fact that suddenly a few markers moved in the same direction at the same time. Every algorithm in the city and wall street was based on the same markers, so suddenly most people opinions of the sub-prime market switched at the same time.”

    As for the above – the US and UK (I don’t know about other countries specifically) had a property bubble – what do bubbles do?

  52. Stew

    Heard a Dr on TV saying that during this time of Coronavirus , whilst staying at home we should focus on inner peace. To achieve this we should always finish the things we start .

    I looked through my house to find things I’d started and hadn’t finished, so I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bottle of Chardonnay, a bodle of Baileys, a bodle of wum, the mainder of a Valiumun scriptun an a box of chocletz.

    You haf no idr how feckin fablus I feel rite now. Sned this to all who need inner piss.
    An telum you luvum.
    Hash your wands, stafe day avrybody xxxxxxx

  53. Slade

    Hopefully political neophytes like “Pedro” leave the US and never return. Basking in the glow of your pathetic paycheck from one country whilst propping up your little cadre of right wing snowflakes ( Marc, un, hackney,etc.) on a daily yellow sheet is pathetic.
    Meanwhile, Drs Marc (where do you sit then, dirty foreigner?) and Emirates (I recently met with the grand niece of Rudyard Kipling and she indicated additional effort to assist little brown brother is necessary) will continue to provide England with expert analysis.

  54. alex cutter

    “Looks like Pedro is a fan of the Chinese state, censoring any content written against them.”

    How patient do you think Pete’s corporate masters will have for one of their mid-level marketing schlubs hosting a soccer blog that allows posts bad-mouthing of china?

  55. Marc


    Mate it is serious but people buying up 300 loo rolls was fucking crazy.

    The media at the moment are really pissing me off, they are asking leading questions to doctors etc trying to get them to slag off the government or say things that will panic people. We don’t need that sort of shit at the moment. The government is doing a good job under difficult circumstances – they are not perfect and have made mistakes and there will be others but trying to whip up more hysteria is irresponsible.

    They should be focusing on the nut jobs ignoring government advice – Snowdonia had it’s busiest day ever in the week – what is wrong with people?

  56. Jamie

    Anyone know the formula for the variance of Ordinary Least Squares (non-singular)? Easy calculus.

    The 2008 financial crash happened because credit default swaps weren’t regulated in the US until a year later.

  57. underrated Coq

    “How patient do you think Pete’s corporate masters will have for one of their mid-level marketing schlubs hosting a soccer blog that allows posts bad-mouthing of china?”

    Fair point.

  58. Marc

    “How patient do you think Pete’s corporate masters will have for one of their mid-level marketing schlubs hosting a soccer blog that allows posts bad-mouthing of china”

    Mid level? I didn’t realise that Pedro had been promoted!

  59. Marc


    Don’t know if you saw my earlier comment re: Margin Call – it’s on BBC2 tonight if you haven’t seen it well worth a watch. Good film.

  60. Valentin


    That is reverse causality. CDS did not caused the crash, but they did amplified it.
    The main issue was two folds:

    1) over estimation of the credit market by financial markets, regulator and politicians.
    In France Sarkozy was trying to introduce a law in favour of sub-prime lending at the time the market was crashing. The law was discreetly removed from the agenda. In the US, very few people had considered that NINJA loans would worthless at their redemption. In order to create GDP growth, Bush had pushed for credit growth. That credit growth financed the property boom. Unfortunately that included both the sub-prime market and Wall Street. Derivative market just allow people to bet on the market with a limited initial deposit. So losses can be catastrophic.

    2) under estimation of the systemic risk.
    If one very large company default, then it will impact everybody else. Even companies who were not owed anything by the collapsed company. Suddenly the credit market dried up and anybody would relied on it for its own business as usual activity was left high and dry. See Northern Rock who were financing their long term activity with short term liquidity.

  61. Guns of Hackney


    Don’t you dare call me a snowflake! A racist, misogynist, right winger and handsome bastard yes, but not a snowflake.

    Now excuse me while I get my double mocha latte ground with a sensual blend of African and South American beans and organic and gluten free cherry slice. £25.00 well spent, I’d say!

  62. Jamie


    Trading derivatives and insuring them against unregulated and undercapitalised credit default swaps caused the financial crash.

  63. Valentin


    Financial bubble are defined when the valuation given by the market defied the intrinsic financial logic and become irrational.

    Check the famous Dutch Tulip bubble:

    Property Bubbles are easy to spot as the median prices of property does not relate to average income revenue. What is more difficult to predict is their exact moment the bubble will collapse, because external agents (financial investors, pension funds, foreign speculators) can keep it going much longer than it should.

    Basically when well off current owners can not afford their own house, there is a bubble. But it can take up to 3 years to burst.

    In some cases long term Stagflation mean that bubble never actually burst. Japanese prices have just slowly deflated for 30 years.

    There are also some bubble that are artificially created by people acting as cartel. The most famous one is the Silver crisis created by the Hunt Brothers.

  64. Tom

    The swamp needed draining.
    I’m all for dismantling the facade of democracy and in its place install a system with as much transparency as can be achieved with out endangering lives. I’ll support anyone who stands for it.

    Ignorance is bliss.
    Can you point to any piece of legislation or executive order by Trump aimed at actually draining the swamp?
    Of course you can’t because there isn’t one.
    Draining the swamp was just a campaign slogan invented by Trump who ran as an outsider against the system.
    Once elected though, Trump immediately rolled back an Obama directive barring lobbyists from being named to federal agencies they had lobbied over the previous two years.
    In fact,Trump has named more former lobbyists to cabinet positions in three years than Obama and Bush in eight years.

    Four former heads of cabinets in Trump administration resigned their posts after evidence of their corruption and funds misappropriation had become clear and public pressure too great.
    In all four cases Trump stood behind them to the bitter end praising their virtue.

    Kushner, Ivanka – nepotism

    I could go on for hours.

    Congress has just passed and Trump’s signed into law the largest stimulus bill in history, and although Democrats have made every effort to insert as much checks and balances and oversight into it, the fight from Trump’s legal team to keep the money disbursements secret and free of inspector general oversight has already begun.
    The Xmas has come early for Trump this year.
    The guy who ripped off his own charity and was ordered by courts to shut it down( because he couldn’t be trusted running it) and pay $2million in fines and restitutions is now in charge of $500 billion tax funded slash fund.

    You and millions of other Trump supporters who believe him to be an outsider trying to correct the corrupt system are nothing but a Trump cult members.
    Trump is and always has been the ultimate insider scamming the system.
    The only corruption Trump is against is the one he’s not in on.

  65. Valentin


    Respectfully you got things backward.
    Like I explained the sub-prime crashed first. That caused the crash of derivative instruments on properties. Those financial losses caused panic and constrict the credit market.
    That constriction of the credit market caused Lehman Brothers to collapse. Nobody was willing to lend them any further and the US Government advised by their direct competitor Goldman Sachs refused to bail them out. That in turn cause a panic on the Credit Default market. As the CD market had been used as a cheap way to make money, it was seriously undercapitalized. A particular example was biggest player AIG that did not expect all those to happen at once.

  66. Spanishdave

    Why is nobody publishing the actual number of deaths to fit healthy people?
    If the old and people with existing conditions stayed at home every body else could go back to work.
    If the economy stalls much longer there will be mass unemployment to follow this disaster. The government do not have a bottomless pit of money and with no vat tax coming in this country will soon have the mother of all depressions.
    We have to find a way forward.

  67. Spanishdave

    By the way Trump knows that if the American economy has to resume soon in some way, the bail out sounds a lot but it’s not enough.
    Playing politics now is pointless.

  68. Marc

    “Playing politics now is pointless.”

    That is 100% correct – maybe some of the opposition shadow minsters should take that on.

  69. Micheal

    “..maybe some of the opposition shadow minsters should take that on.”

    Marc, stick to football. There is less scope to appear as a half-demented, raving Travis Bickel character.

  70. Valentin

    Spanish Dave,

    I despise Trump and history will judge him unsympathetically for his inadequate response to the COVID-19 crisis, but ultimately whoever would have been in charge would have been dealt a bad hand.

    The pandemic just showed that countries with a strong central government with a competent leader at the helm have been barely able to survive that challenge. Even countries with previously considered efficient healthcare system have been overwhelmed.

    The only possible response would have been to heed China’s dire warning and do the followings:
    + Immediate Closure of all outside borders
    + Immediate testing of anybody coming in and out
    + Imposing societal changes such as social distancing, mask and gloves
    + Constant tracking of everybody (Already some countries are trying to enact law that authorise Phone provider to GPS track users in case of medical emergency)
    + Mandatory quarantine of anybody infected
    + Mandatory isolation of anybody untested presenting the symptoms or having been in contact with a confirmed case
    + Optional isolation of population at risk but with waiver renouncing priority treatment
    + Immediate purchase of medical equipment
    + Immediate enactment of anti-Price Gouging laws and anti-stock piling behaviour

    But how many western democracies would have accepted those decisions?
    They were enacted and accepted in South Korea, Singapore. I doubt that US, UK or French libertarian would have before seeing the devastating effect on Italy and Spain.

  71. Marc


    I think I’ll comment on anything I want to. The only person who has any right on here to control what is discussed is Pedro.

    Rather than trying to appear clever – something that’s clearly beyond you – maybe you should keep up to date with current affairs. I suggest Emily Thornberry’s anti Trump rant in the Commons a couple of weeks ago as a starting point.

  72. Jamie

    Valentin –

    I’m afraid you’ve got it backwards. Derivatives made up of junk-bonds and mortgage-backed securities fuelled the sub-prime market, not the other way around. Junk bonds have been issued for well over 200 years in the US, btw. You know this already though.

    Without unregulated credit default swaps [allegedly] insuring potential losses, there wouldn’t have been any appetite for packaging up more subprime mortgages.

    Hard to believe a quant with a decade of experience wouldn’t know this.

  73. Marc

    The thing that started the ball rolling on the crash was the repeal of the Glass Steagall by Clinton 99.

    I heard a recording after the crash of a Congressman or Senator giving a speech in the House / Senate that was made as the vote went through, he listed a course of events that would happen if the bill was repealed – he got it spot on.

  74. Spanishdave

    Your using hindsight for your point of view, and a distaste of Trump to cloud your judgement.
    Trump has top quality advisors who appear almost nightly with him to let everyone know what the situation is, he gives the floor to them all to report of various aspects.
    I have just returned from America and have watched most nights for the last month these reports.
    He is trying to keep up moral and hope. He’s an optimist and knows how important the economy is and if it collapses the consequences are more than the cause.
    The World economy feeds off the American consumers and without it the World economy will go.
    The virus is proving to be no worse than Flu and no more infectious.
    They are trying to use existing drugs to rebuff this virus to enable some workers back to work ASAP.
    We have to get back to work , China and Russia are waiting in the wings.

  75. Micheal

    “I think I’ll comment on anything I want to. The only person who has any right on here to control what is discussed is Pedro.”

    Marc, I am not attempting a Bamford-like role of policing the blog by dictating who says what or which invididuals post. Nothing to do with me. But as an observation, I’d say you appear more stable and less unhinged if you stick to football – and it is a football blog.

  76. Valentin


    You are making my point exactly.
    People were packaging junk bonds into financial products and offer protection for those products via CD products. When the junk bonds failed, then the CD failed. Derivatives allows the irrationality of prices to be hidden much longer and therefore bubble go much longer and crisis are much bigger.
    Credit Derivatives amplified the crisis but did not cause it. Junk bonds existed and they caused crisis even before derivatives existed.
    The same the Dot.com bubble was not caused by equity derivatives but by IPO and equity pricing exuberance.

  77. alex cutter

    “I have just returned from America and have watched most nights for the last month these reports.”

    I thought I noticed the smell improving.

  78. Valentin

    Spanish Dave,

    Reread what I wrote.
    I clearly stated that Trump response has been inadequate but that he and all the Western governments have been put into an impossible situation. No western government would have been able to take the correct course of action without pushback by libertarians.

    Only gullible genuinely believe that narcissistic Trump wants to keep the economy open for the benefit of people rather than for his own re-election chances.

    Regarding his advisors, most of the competent people are people that were left behind from previous administrations. Look at the people whom he named at FEMA and other important bodies.

    And if you think that keeping things open would have been the better solution, you are seriously mistaken.

    Quarantine and lockdown orders are done to avoid millions of people sick at exactly the same time. Without those staggered arrivals no healthcare system can cope.
    The sickest require 3 to 4 weeks on ventilator and a minimum of 2 to 3 weeks in ICU. If you suddenly you have 10% of the population that needs intensive care at the same time but have enough for 1%, then 90% of those can’t be treated and the death rate would have exploded. And that does not even take into account the negative impact on the rest of the health care system.

    I gave the example of a friend of mine who is a pneumology specialist in France. Her department is now entirely dedicated to the disease. All operation are reevaluated. Operations on cancer at stage 3 or less are cancelled. Maternity not yet overwhelmed are deliberately inducing early child birth to avoid having them during the expected pick in two weeks time.