A European Cup Cup Playoff™ COULD be the solution

by .

It’s fascinating piecing together all the component parts of this outbreak and the impact it’s having on the Premier League.

Firstly, I didn’t realise the league cancelled NOT because huge gathering of the proles could be a problem for society, oh no, they cancelled when Mikel Arteta was diagnosed because they worried about how long it’d take players to come back to full fitness. This line from The Guardian captures it neatly.

A Premier League club executive, who did not want to be named given the acute sensitivities of this crisis, said sports scientists’ advice is that a player needs one day of training for every day of isolation before they can be match fit. So the advisory 14-day isolation doubles to 28 days out of action. It appears close to impossible for squads, managers, coaching and other staff to operate at full strength as the virus spreads, peaks and runs its course.

Bit grim that it was players recovery times… not the idea that a stadium of 60,000 people is a hotbed of contagion that could kill people.

The dawning reality for football execs up and down the country is that the season is looking ever more likely to be cancelled.

Check out the podcast at the bottom of this post where I talk through some hypotheticals with Alex. We discussed a couple of areas that look less likely today. One of my unbelievable EUREKA JOHNSON moments centred around the problems of cancelling the season, I suggested we SHOULD play the season out to stop legal challenges. The bonus is we would resync world football and start next season in January. The benefit would be that we’d be in good shape for the Qatar World Cup. However, most players contracts run to June 30th, which would cause a headache for clubs. I don’t really buy that, we’re changing the season in 2 years, why not now? It’d be better for everyone if this season was finished fairly.

Apparently, there’s a taste for nullifying the league right now but in a less extreme way that Karen Brady is suggesting (namely, letting clubs have last seasons spots). Promote WBA and Leeds, give Liverpool the title, and make all the leagues bigger for a year by not relegating anyone. I could be onboard with that, but I’d be pretty miffed if Arsenal lost out on Europe. We’re very much in the mixer. If we win our game in hand, we’re two points from United. Sure, we’ve been shite all season, but so have United, hence their drab points total.

I WOULD SUE

… and there is the problem, if I can’t play nicely, do you really think Don Raul is going to forsake that Champions League pot of gold he bet this summers transfer budget on? I have my doubts. However unlikely Champions League seemed, it was on the cards. I think we’d have even more of a chance if Arteta had 3 months to practice his ideas with the team. We’d be fitter, smarter, and we’d have a few games to build into the City game (the game in hand).

Another BOBBY DAZZLER of an idea we were mulling was a European Cup Cup Comp™. Isn’t that a pithy name?

If we’re settled on Leicester, Liverpool and City as the Top three, we could play a knockout for the remaining European places. Maybe we could run a futsal league? 8 teams battle it out. The winners take home Europe. The final could be called the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL, you know, because both teams would qualify? I can work on nomenclature, keep with me here, it’s a good idea, we’re moving things forward and you damn well know it.

The really interesting impending firestorm is the one around TV money. Do fans get their subs back from the TV companies? Or is it force majeur (get fucked in French)? Part of the problem is we pay monthly, so fans will just cancel the football part. The question focusing on whether the TV companies take back the money they’ve lost in upfront payments? It ‘could’ be solved by growing the league by 3 teams and giving the TV firms the extra games for free next season. The Premier League might also have to drop their pants on 3pm kickoffs and give Sky a sniff at those. We could also see a relegation playoff introduced like they have in other countries, that’d help plump up the lost advertising revenue.

Damn, we are solving issues at a rate of knots today chaps and chapesses.

On the Mikel Arteta front, he’s doing well according to his wife.

“My husband is feeling fine, he is well. It’s true that he had symptoms of the virus but the symptoms would have never stopped him from going to work in a normal situation.”

I love that she’s just admitted that Mikel usually takes his illness into work. What a pig.

Before I go though, I haven’t seen my GF for the best part of 2 months, she came home yesterday. I foolishly thought I’d slink out and support the people in restaurants who won’t be earning any money… thinking New York would be a ghost town. My oh my, it was fucking packed. The sun was out, people were playing in the park, and all the bars were fucking rammed. Then I read this today and felt real guilty.

Calm before the storm after reading that bad boy! Stay safe and pretend those canned kidney beans are a dining delight by serving them up artfully!

Right, I guess that’s me done for today. Let me know if there are any topics you want me to write about over the coming weeks.

We’re going to have A LOT of time to kill….

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Marko

A little fact for Americans 368 people died in 24 hours there in Italy. And no drinking sliver from a televangelist won’t save you. Prayer might…nah it won’t.

Dissenter

Marc I have to say that of all the western countries that I’m familiar with, you Brits are the most resolute and stoic of all. You have this quite resolution about you that I have always envied. I remember telling people around me on July 7, 2005 that this folks will be back on the tube and buses pretty fast…and so you did. I promise you that will never have happened in the states where chicken hard bravado is the rule of the day. Do you know what’s outselling toilet paper and hand sanitizers? a]apples b] condoms c]MAGA hats [made… Read more »

Dissenter

We are the land of conspiracy theories, no wonder we rejected the WHO testing kit that was ready to go.

Did you all hear that Trump made a $1,000,000,000 offer to a German company to buy their vaccine and make it available to ONLY Americans?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/not-for-sale-anger-in-germany-at-report-trump-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal

Who does that?
If you buy, it it has to be to escalate production for he US and give out the formula FREE to every country … then help everyone else expeditiously make to to save lives.
The benefit of doing that is worth a 100 years of foreign policy actions.

Marc

Dissenter

I don’t see what real alternative there is?

Marko

The Government is not sharing the information it is basing decisions on to other scientists in general Well that’s pretty stupid to the point where I doubt it’s true and I doubt the rest of what you’re saying is true. How can the government any government make smart decisions if specialists and people that know what they’re talking about aren’t included in the decisions being made….oh Anyway onto football I doubt they’ll cancel the season giving how Liverpool would react. My guess is that depending on how long it takes they’ll finish the season behind closed doors, push the Euros… Read more »

Marc

Sid

Stories like that need to be keep in context. The guy was in his 70’s so in the “at high risk” group and is it not possible that he wasn’t over the virus when he had the 2nd test? Someone just fucked up a test is just as likely as anything else.

Marc

Marko

I was commenting on what the science reporter on Sky news was saying – as for

“Well that’s pretty stupid to the point where I doubt it’s true and I doubt the rest of what you’re saying is true. How can the government any government make smart decisions if specialists and people that know what they’re talking about aren’t included in the decisions being made….oh”

That’s a stupid comment in that a) it doesn’t reflect what I said and b) shows an ignorance of what is happening over here.

Marko

Do you know what’s outselling toilet paper and hand sanitizers?
a]apples
b] condoms
c]MAGA hats [made in china]
d] fire arms

In America? I mean because you’re American I highly doubt the accuracy of what you say. I’d probably substitute apples for McDonald’s and condoms for KFC and it’s probably more accurate

Marko

Marc I think my comment went a bit over your head

Valentin

Dissenter,

Lord of the flies at country level.
The movie Mortal Engines was just a precursor rather than just a story.
If Trump had not disbanded the white house pandemic council out of spite because it had been created by Obama, the US would be more prepared.
This guy has absolutely no moral nor empathy. He see price gouging in term of national crisis as good business practice instead of profiteering of the worse kind.

Marc

Marko

No you didn’t read my comment properly and you’re clearly not aware of what the government over here is doing.

Try reading my original comment again.

Pierre

Marko
“My guess is that depending on how long it takes they’ll finish the season behind closed doors, push the Euros to next summer and start next season super late and have it incredibly congested. ”

There is a simple solution to relieve the congestion next season.

Cancel the international calendar for the season and the short winter break.

This would immediately give the premier league at least 4/5 or6 extra weekends and similar weekdays to complete the fixture list.

The fans and clubs would no doubt be happy with this scenario.

Marc

Pierre

Whilst I agree with you I can’t see the FA or FIFA agreeing to it.

Pierre

Plus we wouldn’t need international qualifiers anyway as teams are already qualified for the euros if they are put back a year…sorted.

Marc

I was very tempted to point out to Marko the irony of someone from Ireland using a racial stereotype to call the population of another country stupid but thought better of it!

Jamie

Nothing Marko has said is any worse than Tony being called a condescending prick at least twice today. Just saying..

Pierre

Jamie
Only twice…he got off lightly.

Jim Lahey

So…

I would take Alexander Hleb over Mesut Ozil.

Dissenter

Pedro
Is this true?
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has convinced head of medical services Gary O’Driscoll to snub Liverpool and stay in north London, according to reports.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/mikel-arteta-convinces-key-arsenal-staff-member-snub-liverpool-12403823/?ito=cbshare

DivineSherlock

Jim Lahey

Alex Hleb is what Dani Ceballos needs to be . Good in tight spaces , can make darting runs , keep the possession , end product . Shame he had to go to Barcelona

GunnerDNA

All these people talking trash about the USA who probably never visit the Country

Spanishdave

Is the club training the players?

Pierre

Un
And then we moved on to Cazorla, wilshere, Sanchez and Ozil.

The good old days eh.

The Wenger obsessives never stopped complaining did they , even when we were winning cup finals and playing quality football .

Well , they got what they wished for and look where it got is .

Relegation candidates until Arteta saved the sinking ship

Marc

Un

Well if that is true it’s good news – those in high risk groups can be treated fairly simply which gives time to developed a vaccine.

CG

“”””It is about personal responsibility. There is only so much a teacher or coach can do for you. Don’t blame the coach if you are one footed, teach yourself to use both feet.””””” Some super snippets of wisdom from The G. And a perfect illustration of what Wengerism in essence was all about. Letting the players work it out for themselves and supplying their own answers to win the match. (It’s the same strategy all great managers use by the way) If Pepe can’t use his right foot at his age – its an indictment of him and the Dope… Read more »

Gentlebris

‘Marko, when you ask why you get banned, just look at your behavior after being back for 13 seconds.’

You think Osama Bin Laden wouldn’t ask why he got killed, don’t you?

Marc

Valentin

Makes you wonder doesn’t it?

It’s like the claim yesterday that the virus can’t survive temperatures over 27 / 28 degrees – internal body temperature is 37 degrees.

The people making these claims really are morons.

Marc

Un

I’m living proof of that mate!

Dissenter

Marc We will never know if these unprecedented actions governments are taking is an “over-reaction” or over-kill. People with your mindset will look back and say …”see, it wasn’t so bad after all”. The preventive medicine specialist will say it was those wild sweeping actions that limited the spread. Modern medicine was always going to prevent the mass casualty of the Spanish flu pandemic that followed world war 1. The fear is that the intensive medicine capacity of western societies is already stretched during the regular flu months so any crises atop it would lead to a catastrophic crash. It’s… Read more »

Marc

Dissenter

Your comments are counter intuitive. The whole UK’s response has been about pushing this out so cold and flu season is over so the NHS can cope better.

I never said this wasn’t going to be bad what I said was over reaction and panic will make it worse.

Boris and his 2 main scientific advisors have just given another press conference with updates on advice and actions. It’s clear, cautious and honest.

People get caught up in fear and panic and it spreads faster than any virus.

Marc

Also Trump didn’t minimize it he completely dismissed it out of hand.

Dissenter

Marc
How is your viewpoint different from Trump’s public opinions?, essentially it’s almost word-for-word; It’s not infecting so much, it’s not as lethal as once feared and the flu kills more … slow don’t over-react.

Dissenter

Marc
I think Boris cautious approach is more reactive that expected. He is still doing everything that the rest of the west have done…he is just doing it in slowed motion.
At least he’s better than Trump who just told the state governors to not wait for the government to source ventilators and equipment for first responders.
It’s every state for itself here, just a disjointed mess.

Marc

Dissenter

You’re confusing my comments on individuals over reacting ie a women buying so much food she couldn’t move the trolley to government advice.

The comments about mortality rates are still correct it’s at or less than 1% of the general population.

On that side of things I think our government is doing a measured job – putting everyone on instant lockdown would not work as after a period people stop taking notice, you’ve then got a situation worse than before.

Marc

Sorry should amend that to comments about mortality rates are still correct it’s at or less than 1% of the general population who are infected.

Obviously the issue is for the at risk groups – again making sure people don’t panic is important as it allows the NHS to focus on those who need it most.

Dissenter

Marc
Okay, thanks for the clarification. I get what you’re saying now.

Marc

Dissenter

I know it’s a horrible thing to say but I think the economic damage caused by this to families, businesses and jobs could be far longer lasting than the death toll in the UK.

Bob N16

Germany has over 7,000 cases but only 14 deaths. Can we find out what they are doing?

Bob N16

Panic gun buying in the States, one thing at least we don’t have to worry about!

Marc

Dissenter

You see the type of thing I’m talking about – the WHO putting out a press statement saying “countries must TEST TEST TEST”

That is a stupid thing to put in the public domain, it makes people scream blue murder than everyone isn’t being tested.

The WHO should know better.

Marc

Bob

There are so many possible variables, is it treatment? Is it early diagnosis? Is it something to do with age demographics? Is it the starting health point of people before they get the virus.

Very difficult to tie down to a single factor.

Dissenter

Marc “DissenterI know it’s a horrible thing to say but I think the economic damage caused by this to families, businesses and jobs could be far longer lasting than the death toll in the UK.” No, it’s not horrible It’s like an auto-immune disease, sometimes the efforts to defend oneself can cause more harm that good. I think all governments have to rationally make that balance. Over here, the president has made himself a cartoon character of incompetence and some local authorities are trying to outdo themselves as to who’s toughest. Your system was made for emergencies such as this,… Read more »

Valentin

Marc, I mentioned that earlier as well. The economic devastation will be felt long after the medical crisis has passed. Unless governments impose a moratorium on debt for 2~3 months, most financial small businesses will collapse and not survive. The same with people who will lose their jobs and won’t be able to find a replacement at the same salary if any. Instead of trying to prop up Wall Street, Trump should worry about Joe the plumber who will suddenly not be able to pay his bills. I say Joe the Plumber facetiously as I know that 1) his name… Read more »

Marc

Valentin

I know what you mean – Macron making some major promises on the news at the moment!

Marc

Dissenter

It’s not our system – it’s stiff upper lip old boy!

Dissenter

Marc
I wholly disagree with you regarding testing.
I’m a healthcare provider here, it’s harder to get a test here than to get an insurance company to pay for a costly procedure.
There are limited tests available and it’s restricted by the local heath departments based on CDC guidelines. How do you gauge the effectiveness of what measures you’re taking if you don’t test? How do contract trace infected people to reduce further exposure.
That “test-test-test” comment was a veiled reference to the US because even if I recommended a test for my XXX- it’s not available.

Marc

Dissenter You’ve made my point there and completely failed to understand the problem. If you read my comment I said putting that comment in the public domain is dangerous – say it to governments around the world, of course they need to test. By putting it in the public domain people who either don’t think or aren’t capable of thinking start the “why haven’t we tested everyone” over reaction – think about that and break it down. In the UK even if we tested a million people a day it’d take 66 days to test everyone – the guy tested… Read more »

Dissenter

Marc If you test the guy on day early, he can be quarantined definitively so that he does not spread the infection to others. That’s what South Korea is doing and it’s slowed it down. Imagine if Arteta wasn’t tested and he just took the day off for a flu-like illness, then the rest f the Arsenal team went to Bournemouth. Arsenal players shake the hands of the Bournemouth mascot and ball boys That should answer the question, that singular testing helped to convince the premier league and rest of English football to move faster. Under he CDC guidelines of… Read more »

Marc

Dissenter

Again you’ve missed my point – people with early symptoms should be tested ASAP – my point was we can’t test the entire population there’s too many people.

Marc

Pierre

Mate I wonder if they’d be more sensible than what the W.H.O. have said today.

At minimum at least you could trust Pete Townshend to smash a guitar over their heads!

Pierre

Marc

We won’t get fooled again that’s for sure.

Marc

Pierre

I wish you were right on that – At least I’ve got Pictures of Lily to help pass the time!

MGooner

This is great. Love that team, they are the cream of the cream.

https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/#

Charts of likely progression for major countries.

Site being updated atm 🙂

Pierre

I’m bored 😷

MGooner

Hehe, indeed.

The twitter feed offers some charts too

https://twitter.com/SMerler

This is a good test for democracies, let’s see if we can deal with this as well as the Chinese did.

Markets hammered again today. Should suffer another 2 3 weeks. Stock prices will be on 50% sale

Marc

Pierre

You could always go and paint your room white!

I know that’s bad but the best I could do.

sarge

Got to say, slightly surprised Pedro by your pop at Karen Brady. Unless clubs agree otherwise (which I doubt given the inability to remove the ‘what if’ factor) this is the default option.

MGooner

I wish I had time to get bored. 😉

Dissenter

Marc
I’m referencing the US logjammed system where testing is not available.

Marc

Dissenter

Mate I think it’d be fair to say that the general view of the US healthcare system outside of the US is it’s fucked!

TheBayingMob

“Regardless I would imagine most people would rather not pay NI contributions and have their own heath insurance. I have no metric for this it’s just an opinion.” I would be careful with that opinion. Having lived in the States for the past 5y I can tell you that a completely privatized health system is a near disaster over here. While I would say that I have access to some facilities far quicker than on the NHS (my local surgery will do xrays at the drop of a hat for e.g., things you might wait days for weeks for on… Read more »

Marc

Un But that’s my point – you can’t test everyone but you test those who need to be tested. I don’t know why your Mum wasn’t tested the number mentioned by one of the science advisors earlier was 44,000 tested with 42,000 being clear. The NHS is going to be put under severe pressure therefore everyone needs to be responsible and not add to the pressure if they don’t need to. This is about thinking beyond your own selfish behaviour, whether that’s on stock piling, making unnecessary demands on the health service or not self isolating if you have symptoms.… Read more »

Marc

Baying mob

Who the hell suggested we scrap the NHS and go all in private in the UK?

TheBayingMob

“Children and teacher being put at unnecessary risk with the likelihood of parents being at home anyway as was the previous excuse for not closing the schools.”

So I’m not saying this is wrong but the timing is important. Healthcare employees (doctors, nurses, etc.) all have children too. Closing the schools places additional burdens on them to have to find child care solutions.

I’m not saying it’s wrong just that these decisions have more implications around them that most people are considering.

Marc

Mob

I said that over a week ago when Ireland closed their schools till the end of March. It’s a lot more complicated than a simple “lets close the schools for a few weeks” what do the Irish government do in 2 weeks when schools are scheduled to re open but things are worse? Re open the schools and the initial decision was stupid keep them closed indefinitely and you get to a point of when was the right time to make the decision too early and you’ve just added to the disruption and hardship.

TheBayingMob

It was Tony @02:21:26 that opined “ Regardless I would imagine most people would rather not pay NI contributions and have their own heath insurance. I have no metric for this it’s just an opinion” I’m not sure he was saying scrap the NHS but I love these sweeping statements. I think a part government funded part private system would work best. Is that how Japan do it? There’s one country that’s runs like that but I’m sure even that has its issues. The NHS is definitely on its knees, has been for years, but I don’t think a fully… Read more »

Marc

Bayingmob

Decent jobs over here come with private healthcare – you’ve then got the NHS if the shit hits the fan. The lefties will give all the reasons it’s evil but the fact is it takes pressure off the NHS for routine operations.

Olumide

Pedro I think the best solution is to play the remaining matches. There’s no other solution that won’t make at least one club very pissed. Re coronavirus, I think the death rate might increase if it continues spreading at this rate. What’s happening in Italy could happen in other countries if the virus continues spreading at this rate. No matter how well-prepared a country is, there will be a limit at which the system will be overpowered. At that point, many countries may start leaving some people to die like Italy is doing. The best-case scenario right now is probably… Read more »

Champagne Charlie

Minutes per chance created open play 2019-20 Arsenal players

1 Tierney 62
2 Ozil 62.5
3 Saka 64
4 Ceballos 68
5 Lacazette 69
6 Pepe 79
7 Willock 79
8 Nelson 80
9 Aubameyang 104
10 Martinelli 104

Source: Orbinho.

Also…. talk Real want 36 million for Ceballos to be made permanent. It’s a no from me on that one.

andy1886

From the BBC: ‘The UK’s plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a “catastrophic epidemic”. A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units. The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government. Its calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK. Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from Coronavirus to… Read more »

Marc

andy

That is still a worst case scenario.

Marc

CC

I think transfer talk might be a waste of time – I’m not sure a summer transfer window is going to happen.

Spanishdave

More than three quarters of the cases are now cleared up.
The newspapers do not print this as they want to keep up the fear to sell news.
Shamefull

andy1886

Marc, no, that isn’t worst case, that was their best estimate based on policy as was. Worst case was 510,000 (you can read the report). They also recommended school closures for the reasons that should be obvious – while children suffer less ill effects there is no suggestion that they transmit the virus any less readily than adults. While there would be an impact in terms of health care workers and child care this would be less significant than the additional infections caused by schools remaining open.

Spanishdave

Ceballos not worth the money.
Go for Grealish.

Marc

andy

Infections to whom? Healthy adults who make a complete recovery?

So far we have not had a death to someone who is either under 60 or does not have other health complications – the majority of deaths have been people both over 60 who also have further health complications.

You want to shut everything down? For how long? Think about it before you answer.

andy1886

Marc, the recommendation was shutting schools, not ‘everything’. Yes primarily people with poorer immune systems would die but does that make them expendable? Unfortunately the alternative would be no less disruptive. More illness ultimately means more people off work and so the same end result. The difference is that the governments original policy would have meant massive loss of life for no obvious benefit. Which is why they’ve made another u-turn.

Valentin

Funny how the “we don’t need expert” brigade always decide to take refuge behind experts when the shit hit the fan and they suddenly realise that the no amount of attempt at scapegoating will change the fact most people will judged them as responsible for the response fiasco.

Arteta’s Hair

Marc There has been one 59 year old male die in UK, not trying to split hairs sir. I agree that the 60+ population (or younger with respiratory illness) are where the worry is and the majority of what the Government is trying to is aimed squarely there. Would shutting the world down for say 2 weeks kill this thing off? Surely if that were true it would be being considered. Bottom line is most will be ok, and I guess life has to go on as shutting everything down for a long period will be financial suicide for many… Read more »

andy1886

One positive (if true) note was that Public Health England are ‘rapidly’ developing a test to show if people had previously been infected which means that if you know you’ve had the virus and recovered you can resume normal activities without endangering others.

Arteta’s Hair

Shutting not shitting lol

Pedro – can we make it so we can edit a post after posting, for the retards among us … me?!

Valentin

If Mason Mount reaction to being told by his employer to self isolate react is typical of Londoner attitude, I would think that within a 1 week the UK government will copy the drastic measure taken by the French government.

In case people had missed the report.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51910780

Spanishdave

Andy
There is a lot of shitting going on!
It will be nice when footy gets back,most players will be fit and raring to go.

andy1886

Hear hear to that Spanish. Let’s hope they are actually fit and don’t spend the next few months on the beer and eating kebabs (easily done when you’re bored, at least for the rest of us anyway). Rooney will be the size of an oil tanker….

Gentlebris

I thought some Aussie was talking about chloroquine yesterday, or was he having too much to drink? Surely people who feel they are showing covid-19 symptoms must have eaten some chloroquine, and if the virus disappears as that dude claims then some C rated journalists would have made a gold mine of it. Headline today should be CORONAVIRUS ARRESTED BY CHLOROQUINE. Maybe too early for all of that to have happened. I just realize this can’t go on, people are scared shitless to get on the plane and go do their work. Then not having football games is itself like… Read more »