Emery’s numbers look very bad

by & filed under News Review.

Day two and the pain is still pretty intense.

I find the defence of the manager quite baffling, especially considering how strong the evidence of his failings has been. Underlying and data and literally what you’ve been watching all season tells a clear story. So spare the detailed unpicking of his body language or the theorising over why he said nothing in the changing room after the game.

Granit Xhaka, a man who has been front and centre for most of the experience is even a touch deluded about it all.

“I think we had a good season, if you take off the five last games in the Premier League.”

Oh my Granit, oh my. That said, he refused to answer the question as to whether we improved this season under Unai Emery. Well Granit, I can answer you, simply, no we didn’t.

I’m stealing some of Gambon’s posts that explicitly lay this out with hard numbers.

By all accounts, the above is pretty shocking. You can say what you will about Arsene Wenger, but it was clear the problem with him in his last 2-3 seasons was his drifting further and further away from the basics. We mostly blamed poor tactics, a lack of preparation, a blindness to squad needs (which Sven went a way to fixing) and a loss of fire that once drove him to greatness.

When we hired in the new person, we hired in a ‘coach.’ The point of a coach is that they should have the ability to move the club forward without spending £400m. We even had the argument last year that we couldn’t hire in someone like Allegri because he’d want NOW money. Emery was the coach. Training would be high energy, he was a prep machine and he wouldn’t allow the players to be cowards.

So aside from it being clear that performance indicators have dipped, and it being obvious that the culture of the club hasn’t been shifted in an entire year, the other item people keep on comparing to is Liverpool.

Klopp came in, moved Liverpool from 10th to 8th. A poor return they say, that was rectified with time, money and patience. Yes, but remember, those three elements are a reward for tangible progress.

Again, we are in single data point territory. Football fans are utterly terrible with stats, so let me paint a picture using someone else’s.

Just to add to the above. As the season wore on, Klopp’s Liverpool side greatly improved. His team scored 52% of its entires PL seasons goals in the last 13 games. The fans were being electrified with rock and roll football. You could clearly see that without buying players, that Klopp was impacting the players, the culture and the energy around the club.

Additionally harping back to the goals conceded issue, I find it slightly worrying that we’re expecting a coach with limited defensive pedigree to fix our defence. At Sevilla, over his three seasons in which he finished 5th, 5th and 7th… he averagely shipped 49 goals a year. He look over a defence at PSG that had conceded 19 goals, when it was handed over, it clocked up to 27, then 29 in his final year.

‘BUT WHO WOULD COME TO ARSENAL FOR £6M A YEAR’

I have to tell you Arsenal fans, this is the most middle class ‘I live in a bubble’ comment I read.

Arsenal is a powerhouse club. You can bitch about it, you can say its dead, you can say we’re not attractive… but you’d be so fucking wrong. If Liverpool can attract Jurgen Klopp to live on Merseyside with a team that was sitting in 10th, with the promise of zero net spend for 2 full seasons, then Arsenal are not going to have a problem hiring in a top manager to take us forward.

Yes, the owner didn’t go to the game. But really, what are you bitching about there? Its YOUR sentimentality you’re whining about. Stan K isn’t in the day to day of any of his clubs, and why would you want him to be? Raul and Vinai run the show.

Stan can be called many things, but uninterested seems a bit of a meek jab. He invested as much of Arsenal’s self-generated money as he could have, we are the 3rd highest net spenders in the league over 5 years and we have spent more net than Madrid over 10 years. We have a £230m wage bill compared to Spurs at £140m. We fired Arsene Wenger and his team at a cost of £17m last year. Stan signed off on Ozil at £350k a week. We built a new structure at the club at great expense, and to be fair, the structure is modern and forward thinking. We paid £2m for a head of high performance. We brought in Sven for £2m a year. We revamped the training facilities at great expense. We are not lacking money and the myth that Stan is all about profit just doesn’t stack up against any sort of inspection.

‘he should write us a cheque for players!’

Look at what is happening to Manchester City with regards to flooding the club with cash injections that are allegedly not what they seem.

Anyway, my point being is this: It’s poor leadership to look at what Emery has done in his year, and think the right move is to carry on as is.

He was hired as a coach, his coaching has taken us backwards.

The easiest and most impactful thing we can do is change the manager. Rethink what we’ve lacked and make a bold decision. We will call it the Bruce Rioja moment.

We need a true leader. Someone who will bring some swagger back to the club. We need someone who the players want to fight for. Someone players desperately want to play under because they know they will improve. Someone in the mould of you know who down the road.

We also need someone with a distinct vision of how the game should be played. Emery’s chameleon approach is non-committal. How many teams have successfully been able to implement both possession football and counter-attacking at the same time? It’d be a monumental achievement to make that happen, and we certainly couldn’t do that on a budget.

My big worry is clearing out problematic players is all well and good, but if you are replacing into a blurred vision of football, you are actually further damaging the club. Emeryball is awful to watch. It’s not the next level. But we appear to be going hard at giving a failing manager the keys to our next 3 years. That is a terrifying prospect.

Is chameleon football part of The Arsenal DNA?

I had hoped not.

I was hoping that the good bits Wenger left would remain. I want Arsenal to play the most electric brand of football on the planet. I want Arsenal to embark on a transfer policy that prioritises the best young players that boast extreme technical capabilities, combined with outrageous power and pace. Give me what Ajax and Dortmund have, but bump it up two notches.

Instead, we’ll fall back on ‘class’, which is code for ‘lack of ambition’, and we’ll kick to tough decision can down the road for next season.

It’s a brutally miserable view, but the MD of the club apparently sent out an e-mail asking for people to get some perspective on yesterday. Someone ask Petr Cech whether that happens at CFC after an appalling showing at a final? Barcelona? Madrid?

The real perspective is we’re not built for success. We have a fancy structure, but as I keep on saying, if you do not fill that with the very best people, you are in trouble.

That said, the one HUGE positive I can give you is the noise around Edu is very positive. Firstly, there’s no kingmaker aspect to this hire. Raul is hiring him in because he’s good. You don’t do great things at Corinthians, then take a job with Brazil to be told by Raul you have to sign Ever Banega. Edu also has a lot of sauce about him, the guy looks money, and he knows the DNA of Arsenal and Brazil.

… but he has to be allowed to take an axe to the substandard people at Arsenal. He has to implement a vision, set aggressive targets and hold people accountable for delivering them. We cannot continue to skip along into the footballing abyss pretending our problems are going to be solved by throwing a boatload of cash at people that don’t know how to send it.

Right, that’s me done, see you in the comments.

746 Responses to “Emery’s numbers look very bad”

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  1. Receding Hairline

    “I don’t remember you leading the charge for a squad overhaul to help poor Arsene then. ”

    Because poor Arsene bought Xhaka and placed him as shield in front of our defense, you do not feel sorry for people when they create their own problems

  2. Receding Hairline

    “So that’s you confirming you don’t come here to debate a thing, here to dish up your take and snipe at others it is.”

    grow up

    enough with the sniping nonsense

    Maybe just maybe you can’t convince me because you make unconvincing arguments

    Jeez

  3. Graham62

    “One step forward, two steps back” can be applied to Arsenal FC over these past twelve months.

    Isn’t that what generally happens though when such monumental changes occur?

    In many situations yes, it does, however, based on the capitulation of the last few weeks and especially the debacle on Wednesday evening, Mr Emery has failed to understand and implement one key aspect of his remit that was of paramount importance during his first twelve months at the helm.

    Don’t favour the needs of the few above the needs of the many. By satisfying the needs of Cech, Ozil and the values of the club( yeh right!), he failed to respect the needs of the fans.

    What Emery did on Wednesday evening was not part of the frigging “process”, it was a ludicrous and naive action by someone who failed in his basic duties to put the club and it’s fans first.

    Another year on top of the previous decade of disappointments and let downs won’t hurt too much.

    After all, it’s become the Arsenal way.

  4. Champagne Charlie

    Well transfer we’re taken off his hands as of last season, Sven came in an in Jan we shipped a bunch out and got Auba and Mkhi. Arsene was done dictating transfers.

    So why wasn’t that good enough?

    Your answer to that question is precisely the onus on Emery. The same onus you’re desperate to avoid featuring in your undressing of the season. Rigid opinions it is in the hairline house

  5. Alexanderhenry

    Michael

    You’re right concerning Kroenke, and I’ve been boring Pedro and others to death on here for years making exactly the same point- I admit it, ad nauseam.

    The problem with this argument is that it is essentially a cul de sac.
    There’s nothing anyone can do to get rid of Stan, and as probably his most lucrative investment, there’s no reason for him to sell arsenal.
    As owner, he always has the trump card of sacking the manager or restructuring the back room etc. which works like an automatic reset button.

    It’s a sad state of affairs.

    However, we are still Arsenal and there is a chance the club can do something in spite of Stan.
    It’s incredibly frustrating though, and I think in next few years the club needs to be wary of what’s coming up behind them- Everton, Leicester, West ham – as well as what’s in front.

  6. Champagne Charlie

    “Maybe just maybe you can’t convince me because you make unconvincing arguments”

    You ignore facts and overstate the intangible to support your view.

    That’s the case here, because you’ve not produced one reasonable point of debate for continuing with Emery outside of ‘it was the players, buy better and go again’.

    It’s you that’s wildly unconvincing here.

  7. Gentlebris

    Hold Ozil by his tail and haul with all your strength. That is my most pressing football request.
    Every other thing might follow or not, but get Ozil off first.
    Pay £36m in the process if you have to!

    Oh, £4m left to spend in the summer?
    Doesn’t matter.
    Just do it.

  8. Receding Hairline

    “So why wasn’t that good enough?”

    Maybe because he had lost the competitive edge

    Maybe it was decided the culture of mediocrity came from his leadership of the players

    Maybe just maybe he isn’t really all that tactically anymore

    I know you believe we played breath taking football till the very end of his tenure, we did not.

    Arsenal football club moved on from Wenger too late and not too early

    Even if Emery fails to move us forward sacking Wenger will still be 100% the right decision

  9. Receding Hairline

    Charles you are trying to argue that because one season is not identical to the other, you believe Wenger would have done a better job with this squad than Emery because in your view Emery is a poor manager and not fit for purpose

    I am not buying that argument

    I thinks it’s nonsense sorry to say

  10. UK bubbler

    For what it’s worth Pedro your vindicated in my eyes for never wanting Emery. Your post is spot on. I was hoping to see some semblance of improvement, especially in defence. In hindsight your call for Arteta don’t seem so stupid now.

    The club is just flat and it’s more than money. We seem devoid of a soul. I think we’re in a critical juncture in our history. Arsenal shouldn’t be getting beat like that in any game let alone a final. Losing happens but it was the manner which it happened is worrying to me.

    I felt we were going to lose as soon as Chelsea got pass Eintract. Do you trust this lot to beat any big English team in a final? I was hoping the team that played Napoli and Valencia away was going to show up. Instead we got the meek weak pathetic away performance. I am now in the Emery out camp, I know it’s not the Arsenal way some will say, but we did it with Ricoh.

    A ruthless club would go all in on Allegri or someone of that calibre. Go on Arsenal make it happen, the supporters are watching.

  11. Ishola70

    Weren’t people scoffing at nerd stats regarding Xhaka?

    Are xG stats any better?

    Again people want to look for more things to beat Emery with a stick but just stick to the real tangible ones.

  12. Spanishdave

    We cannot operate a nice guy policy to be successful in football.
    The world has moved on and to win you must has an edge over you rivals.
    Many people like the idea of Mr Nice guy gets another chance, like Wenger who fiddled his way for over 10 years of giving him another go.
    Emery lied to get the job because he slicked back his hair and told them what they wanted to hear. He could do it cheap and get more out of the squad.
    He couldn’t and failed miserably.
    Two golden chances to get into the EPL and he flopped.
    He has no big ideas , so why let him carry on. Perhaps for 5 years just in case we win the Europa Cup against Watford.
    Our goal must be to win the Premiership in 5 years

  13. Champagne Charlie

    “I know you believe we played breath taking football till the very end of his tenure, we did not.“

    But it’s me trying you what you think is it?

    I’ve not said that at all. It was better than the football this season, but Wenger in recent season it was sporadic and littered with tactical incompetence off the ball. His vision was clear, he just couldn’t execute for a multitude of reasons, hence his eventual departure.

    But Emery can’t execute and he apparently gets to blame Monreal, Kos, Xhaka ad infinitum. Funny how it works

  14. Receding Hairline

    “You ignore facts and overstate the intangible to support your view.”

    Says the man who has done everything in his power to play down the FACT we finished 7 points better off than last season, missed 3rd place by 3 points as opposed to 14, scored 19 more goals in the league…..

    Yes i ignore facts alright

  15. Ishola70

    These nerd stats before were trying to convince me that Xhaka was a very good player and essential to the team.

    Now we have the nerd xG stats.

    Prefer less convoluted stats because they are less prone to manipulation.

  16. Receding Hairline

    “His vision was clear,”

    What was his vision?

    How did the purchase of Kolasinac who is better as a wing back than a full back fit into the vision of a man who only plays with a back four??

    How did the purchase of Xhaka to play DM in the premier league fit into that vision??

    How does the fact we have zero winger fit into the vision of attacking football??

  17. Freddie Ljungberg

    “From what I hear, Arsenal will get creative to offload Ozil,” Mills told Football Insider.

    Can we hope for a launch into space with CG keeping him company maybe?

    Just replace him with the ghost of christmas past. Hear he’s available and just as effective as googly eyes.

  18. Alexanderhenry

    Pedro

    Yes, but it’s a very slim chance.

    As an arsenal fan I always have an inner irrational optimist in my red and white beating heart somewhere, but project youth again? More back room? Another manager–who won’t be elite because of small budgets and ‘no money’ in January etc?
    How about better players? That might work.

    We’re living off crumbs, we’re part of a sports chain and our shit owner didn’t even manage a few days away from shooting elephants to pitch up and watch the most important game for arsenal arguably since the PL final against Barca.

  19. Ishola70

    Samesong
    “name and shame….. lol”

    lol you may know one.

    I can fully understand why Emery is attacked for certain reasons such as failing at the tail end of the season with his team but when folks are thirsty for blood they will look for anything as added evidence to begin the slaughter. Even flimsy nerd stats.

  20. Freddie Ljungberg

    No no, RH he had a vision, it was just greatly impaired to the point of near blindness, explains the zip issues. And many many other things.

  21. Champagne Charlie

    “Says the man who has done everything in his power to play down the FACT we finished 7 points better off than last season, missed 3rd place by 3 points as opposed to 14, scored 19 more goals in the league…“

    I’m playing nothing down, I’m saying those results are subject to fluctuating circumstances season after season. It’s why the league title can be won with 80 points, or lost with 97.

    I offered an analogy that illustrated things:

    After a 1-0 win you’re in full praise of the clean sheet and the 3 points. Meanwhile I sit and analyse the performance, see it as bland and bereft of attacking ideas, the part that says we created 2 chances, had one shot on goal, conceded 7 shots on goal, saw Lacazette bang one top bins and Leno have a blinder. But what am I going on about? We won 1-0….

  22. Freddie Ljungberg

    Or replace him with one of Pierre’s bedroom posters of him, should be able to stand on their own, for obvious reasons.

  23. englandsbest

    I am starting to feel better. More than that. I am getting excited about the possibilities of the summer.

    The fact is, I wrote off last season before a ball was kicked. The squad was disjointed, demoralized, dysfunctional, the newcomers were stopgaps, no big names, kind of ordinary.

    Plus we had a problem with my stand-out favourite, Ramsay, with bloated wages for underperformers,with veterans past their best – and with Ozil.

    Together with the near-certainty that nothing meaningful would be done in the January window.

    It’s different now. Two guys hanging by a thread. Raul and Emery, what will they do? Will they do the right ting and save the day? Will they jump ship?

    No illusions about big-name signings. Who cares? it’s more satisfying to see Ozil go. And even more if the departures include Mustafi, Xhaka. Mikki…

    Will the Club cash in on Auba while they still can? How much money can be raised? Will Pedro change his mind about Emery?

    Yes, these are truly exciting times.

  24. Receding Hairline

    “I’m playing nothing down, I’m saying those results are subject to fluctuating circumstances season after season. It’s why the league title can be won with 80 points, or lost with 97.”

    Well managers should just wait for these fluctuations and see where they land at the end then. Wonder why these fluctuations never favored Wenger. It even fluctuated to the point of Leicester winning a league title and he still lost out. Yet i am meant to believe he had a vision.

    Wenger had a vision but it had nothing to do with football, his vision was self preservation and absolute power

  25. Micheal

    Alexander Henry

    I share your frustration and monting anger at the absentee landlord. Under his limp-wristed ownership, I see us becoming another Everton – caught in the no man’s land between the top 6 and mid-table.

    I can only repeat – leadership comes from the top. Kroenke sets the tone of where we’re going, whoever manages the club or whoever we flog or recruit.

    It is a dismal, deeply depressing prospect to realise that our future rests in the hands of this slug.

  26. Graham62

    What exactly is ” The Process”?

    Can anyone explain to me, in laymans terms, what the fudging process is and, more importantly, when it will come to fruition?

    Will it be in my lifetime?

  27. Champagne Charlie

    Receding

    You’re boringly ignorant of other views, it’s jot a hard reference I’m making about points totals year on year. They fluctuate, so hanging on being 7 points better and 11 points closer to top 4 completely ignores any influencers in an attempt to paint a rosey picture.

    You’ve had it explained about a dozen times now how the performance indicators, ie the shit that most accurately determines your returns/future returns, are down. But nope, fingers in your ears and la-la-la you go with your superficial analysis because ‘we won 1-0’.

  28. Paul Kelly

    We should have gone for Brendan Rodgers…nearly won the league with Liverpool…won everything with Celtic.
    Leicester look a very decent outfit again

  29. Ishola70

    Stick with the main points regarding Emery to criticise him with.

    These would be the very disappointing end to the season.

    His failure to improve the defence.

    And the overall style of football.

    These points are more than enough to hit him with.

  30. Bob N16

    We all agree our squad needs a major overhaul, particularly in defence. We also understand we have a limited budget. I’m definitely in the camp that believes we should promote our best 4/5 youngsters – that doesn’t mean that they all play 25 games but that they’re given opportunities to develop.

    Hopefully this as low as we’re going to get!

    I don’t suppose we’ll upgrade Emery – he’s a stop gap/ caretaker manager. However I would be up for a bold move, giving a top young coach a go, if an amazing candidate was available. Over to you Edu?

  31. azed

    “I’m playing nothing down, I’m saying those results are subject to fluctuating circumstances season after season.”

    CC

    Having better players will improve your XG and XGA….
    Monreal and Koscienly are on their last legs, no amount of coaching can improve them. The option to either of those two is Mustafi. Is he an actual improvement over them?

    During the 22 game unbeaten run, we played with a back 4 which is Emery’s preferred method. After the injuries to Bellerin and Holding, Emery started switching between a back 3 and a back 4 because neither AMN or Kolasinac can play in a back 4. The alternatives to them is Jenkinson or Lich.

    XG and XGA don’t take into account personnel.

  32. Receding Hairline

    “But nope, fingers in your ears and la-la-la you go with your superficial analysis because ‘we won 1-0’.”

    Over the course of a season every team play games where they under perform but win. Your attempts to paint the entire season as under performance and sneaked victories is desperate next you will resort to insults

  33. azed

    CC

    Also Liverpool’s xGA dropped after they signed VVD. Are you saying Klopp instantly became a better coach after they signed VVD?

  34. Bob N16

    Englandsbest….I’m coming around to your way of thinking. Half full, rather than half empty. Only wish a DoF was in place but hopefully the ‘no CL football targets’ are now being agreed- together with the long list of departures. Sanhelli needs to work his cojones off…..

  35. Bob N16

    Receding, anybody who has a full length portrait of himself is not going to be my pick. Good coach though.

  36. Ishola70

    The deeper you look into stats the more misrepresented and confused they can become.

    Even something simple as assists were/are being dispusted.

    These xG and xGA stats are far more deeper than that. Take them with the pinch of salt that they deserve.

  37. Pedro

    Ishola70, flat earthing a bit there.

    Look at statistics holistically, which is what Gambon did, the picture isn’t pretty from any angle.

    If it were, you’d counter them.

  38. Chris

    I can’t help but feel people judging Emery on XG are not taking in the whole picture. They are championing it as if they are Bill James.

    It is obviously a useful metric but going off it solely blinds from other variables such as a player declining year on year due to age/attitude, adjusting to a new coach’s methods etc

    This is in no way a defence of Emery, quite frankly he has it all to do, but it isn’t unreasonable to suggest things can improve when some of the constants of the decline the last few years are taken out of the equation (with any luck).

    The trouble for me is that I don’t have much faith in Arsenal as a club to act decisively and ruthlessly with the playing staff this summer.

  39. Luteo Guenreira

    You can’t really trust data when it’s presented like this anyway. Using only two metrics to judge a season’s performance is short sighted. There’s hundreds of factors to consider. I’m not going to count down all those factors but presenting stats and data in your favor is quite easy when you are able to hand select the samples you are working with.

  40. Thank you and goodnight.

    Hahahahahahaha Wenger would of done better. That’s funny. Mate if Emery isn’t good enough to be the manager (yes, I believe he isn’t ), then Wenger 2015-2018 Def isn’t good enough. Wenger 2015-2018 and probably further back than that, makes Emery look like Pep

  41. Ishola70

    No Pedro.

    Looking too much into stats can lead to misrepresentation at best, manipulation at worst and these stats are the views of those who compile said dame stats. They are not set in stone as the gospel.

    Were you not laughing at stats regarding Xhaka before? Dismissing them.

  42. Receding Hairline

    “Receding, anybody who has a full length portrait of himself is not going to be my pick. Good coach though.”

    LOL ….Seriously didn’t know that about him.

    He is a good coach though, think he got a raw deal with the media after Liverpool, they ignored everything he did right and tore into him. He is at Leicester now and surprise surprise the media love him again

    Emery is getting a free pass now from them, next season will be different

  43. Emiratesstroller

    Pedro/Gambon

    We know the stats concerning our defence. There is no dispute about them.
    However, the fact is that Emery inherited defenders from Wenger who conceded 51 goals in each of last two seasons.

    Emery following the two defeats at start of season plus some other games where we conceded unnecessary goals made some changes and experiments.

    He changed the goalkeeper and he used three centre backs with Mustafi, Sokratis and Holding. It did work initially, but as we know Mustafi is always
    an accident waiting to happen.

    Another weakness which sadly Emery just like Wenger failed to resolve is having two wing backs who are habitually upfield at the same time. That left
    our defence consistently exposed particularly in second half of season when
    we used both Koscielny and Monreal operating together as centre backs.

    The problem is that once Holding was out for the season we were constantly
    exposed particularly on left side of pitch because Kolasinac is not remotely
    a full back. He does not know how to defend.

    Similarly Maitland-Niles has also failed to learn how to position himself when
    he is required to defend. He is constantly allowing wingers to pass him and then landing up tackling them from behind with the risk of committing a foul
    or even worse conceding a penalty.Bellerin is slightly better in managing that
    situation but has also his weak defensive points.

    Such weaknesses are not going to change overnight if at all with the personnel
    we have got. The faults are in my view “ingrained” in their psyche.

    Personally I thought that earlier this season the combination of Torreira and
    Xhaka had solidified our midfield. It was not perfect but a lot better than in
    recent seasons.

    The offensive midfield department is exactly the same as with Wenger i.e.
    Ozil, Mkhitaryan and Ramsey. We know the problem there. You can perhaps
    criticise Emery with how he handled Ramsey but certainly not with the other
    two. Bluntly neither is suited to playing in EPL today.

    Emery took a punt in January with Suarez. That was a mistake and as we know January loans/sales are generally poor. Clubs are only likely to offload at that
    time of year unwanted players.

    What I want to see in this summer transfer window is recruitment of three
    “quality” players in defence and midfield which are a considerable upgrade
    on the personnel leaving plus taking a punt on some of the younger players
    coming through Academy and out on loan.

    If there is no material change by Christmas then of course we can have a debate about the longterm future of Emery.

    At the moment I have not reached the point where I would dismiss him out of hand. For those talking about Allegri they should consider first that the dynamics and competition in Italy are very different from England and I doubt
    that such a Manager will take the job unless he has received assurances of a
    decent transfer budget. Take a look at what he had to spend in recent years.

  44. Receding Hairline

    “‘I have chosen Inter because of the club it is, because of the project’s sound basis and how ambitious it is. Because of Inter’s history.

    ‘I was struck by the club’s transparency and the desire to bring Inter back to where it belongs.'”

    Conte after unveiling by Inter

    What is our ambition??

    Where is the transparency??

    Let’s wait and see what Inter do in the market to match that ambition.

    I suspect it won’t be 68m in spending

  45. Luteo Guenreira

    It doesn’t matter whether Emery is good enough or not. Whether it’s his own doing, whether the club didn’t make the right moves, whether the players are pony, whoever is in charge, whatever. Fact is we came short of our goal this year and the lack of additional funds will set us back. How far it sets us back remains to be seen, but due to all the circumstance involved with that it’s pretty much guaranteed he will remain only another year and the club will move on.

  46. Pedro

    Emirates,

    He didn’t inherit Leno, Sokratis and Torreira.

    If you improve the defensive spine, you should probably expect to see an improvement in results?

  47. Ishola70

    People should just relax a bit.

    If Emery is really not up to this task as being portrayed coupled with his very modest transfer budget the chickens will come home to roost sooner rather than later and he will fall down.

    He is only entering his second season. Under Wenger and his last decade, a whole decade, people knew that the club were just kicking the same water over and over again that led to regression in his last few years.

  48. Luteo Guenreira

    Well we lost half of our starting back four in the first couple months, is there a stat for that

  49. Emiratesstroller

    Fur her to those who want to see Allegri take over at Arsenal take a look at his
    transfer budget in last 4 years.

    2015/16 £136.53 Million
    2016/17 £176.24 Million
    2017/18 £144.36 Million
    2018/19 £235.35 Million
    ———————————–
    £692.48 Million

    Juventus have probably managed their departure list a lot better than we have
    when you see players like Sanchez, Wilshire, Ramsey and Welbeck leaving
    for zippo.

    No other club in EPL has been as mismanaged as we have in recent years and
    that is down to Kroenke, Board of Directors, Gazidis and Wenger.

  50. Receding Hairline

    “If you improve the defensive spine, you should probably expect to see an improvement in results?”

    Yes you would and we got some of those performances. We were very good at home against Spurs and Liverpool. We played very well at home against Chelsea. Played very well against Napoli. Many good games, many bad ones and some indifferent ones.

    The story of a transitional season.

    Of course you also have to take into account

    – The alarming decline of Monreal

    – Kos inconsistencies

    – The long term injuries to Holding and Bellerin

    – Torrira only gave us half a good season performance at best

    So yes whatever was added to that spine a lot also was taken from it

  51. Daz

    Emery has said arsenal are the first club where he has not felt scared of losing his job based on performance, enough said the club is a joke, the kroenke’s are a joke we dont need to analyse any further. Madrid, barca, bayern, utd, city, chelsea etc etc demand results arsenal don’t, nothing else matters budgets don’t matter tactics don’t matter the coach doesn’t matter. The owner doesn’t give a fuck about arsenal no pressure on the board no pressure on the coaching staff no pressure on the players. And people talk about how attractive the club is to managers/players how we can do better. Arsenal are a laughing stock in the football world a fucking laughing stock everyone knows it, every pundit on every channel be it in England or in the states or in Europe openly laugh when asked if arsenal will do anything of note, talking about coaches/players is literally a waste of time. And gazidis what a fucking cunt oversees a complete shitshow for a decade then fucks off as soon as the human shield wenger goes total cunt of a man

  52. Receding Hairline

    Speaking of performances, ones against the top six has also improved (which is what i guess led to all the optimism for the cup final)

    We picked up 12/24 points scoring 16 goals and conceding 19 .

    Last season it was 6/24 points with a goal difference of -10

    These are also stats with which one can rate performance, xG is not the only valid statistic

  53. Cesc Appeal

    Wonder if we turn to Joachim Andersen instead of Umtiti or Upamecano? Rumours we were in Italy scouting him and teammate Praet.

    Would be going young to try for Andersen and Saliba.

    Spurs apparently sniffing around Andersen as well.

  54. jwl

    Questioning the utility of algorithms that didn’t even exist a decade ago is not close to being a flat earther, Pedro.
    ———–

    As Vint Cerf, co-inventor of the Internet Protocol, Turing Award winner, and Google VP pointed out ….

    “We need to remember that [AI systems] are made out of software. And we don’t know how to write perfect software … the consequence is that however much we might benefit from these devices …, they may not work exactly the way they were intended to work or the way we expect them to. And the more we rely on [AI systems], the more surprised we may be when they don’t work the way we expect.”

  55. Graham62

    Pedro

    Can’t you dedicate at least one day a week to “positive memories”?

    What about May 3rd and May 8th 1971?

    The double week.

  56. R.S.P.C.Arsenal

    When you look at the stats es put up on transfers …

    Man what have we got back in outgoings!

    It’s criminal .

    Time Wenger had his guard taken down n truth be told about him.

  57. TR7

    10 matches in to the season and it was evident Emery was not the right guy to take us forward. It is sad that Stan will as usual do nothing and let another season go waste.

  58. Valentin

    The fact that some of the KPIs were not in the public domain year ago does not mean that they did not exist before.
    Nowadays anybody with a smart phone can get financial analysis data that 20 years ago were only available to brokers and large financial institutions.

    The reason why every footballers now wear a GPS is because it is more precise, but before every good managers had a idea of how much his players had run during a game.

    The same with the xG, they just put a real objective number on something that every manager instinctively was checking when watching games.

  59. Marko

    CA simply have to try for one of Upamecano or Konate. Not only are they quality now but their respective ceilings are high and you could sell on eventually for a big fee

  60. TR7

    Emery has failed on all fronts :

    1. Worse defense than last season
    2. No semblance of fluency in attack
    3. Lack of mental strength still remains a big problem
    4. No style or pattern of play
    5. Lack of ability to nurture and promote young talents
    6. Torreira and Guen looked impressive early on but seem to have regressed under Emery
    7. Poor squad selection
    8. Doesn’t look like he has won over the players, let alone the fans

  61. Marko

    TR7 they ought to just hire you to hire the next Arsenal manager. My god you had him sussed after 10 games? So after 8 wins and two defeats you just knew? Fair play lad

  62. Big Andy

    Pedro: the problem at Arsenal is simple. It’s called Stan Kroenke. With no ambition at the very top it doesn’t matter who the coach or chief executive is. The only way to get him out is with a boycott of the club by fans.

  63. Marko

    The Eagles
    owner Jeffrey Lurie: “I did look into buying other sports teams when I owned the Eagles, and I regret maybe one of them. There was probably an opportunity to be a significant owner of Arsenal

    Such a shame. He’s done a brilliant job with the eagles

  64. Paul Kelly

    Receding hairline…just in case you missed it .. Lennon only just joined Celtic…it was Rodgers team.
    Also Neil Lennon did not come close to winning the premier League.
    I think we will be lucky to finish above Leicester next season

  65. TR7

    Marko

    A fair few here did suss Emery out very early in to the season, I wasn’t the only one. I am hopeful you will also come around to the idea Emery is sub-standard.

  66. Chris

    TR7

    Judging a manager after 10 games is incredibly harsh unless he has lost all or most of them. Emery didn’t.

    You just appear like another ‘captain hindsight’.

  67. Un na naai

    Can’t you dedicate at least one day a week to “positive memories”?What about May 3rd and May 8th 1971?The double week.

    Bamford, Joe, hairline and FL might actually learn some arsenal history beyond 2010 then.

  68. azed

    Pedro

    I asked a question and you’ve not answered…

    Pochettino’s has beat xG since his time at Spurs and Southampton, why is that? How come you praise Pochettino but have never questioned his xG numbers?

    A quote from statsbomb

    The evidence we have suggests Pochettino’s Spurs have a habit of beating the metrics, so there may be something here. What has never been clear, though, is whether Tottenham’s overperformance in past years has been down to tactical choices or simply the combination of above average finishers (particularly Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, while Dele Alli has had good finishing runs at times) matched with Hugo Lloris’ excellent goalkeeping. What does seem apparent, though, is that Spurs do not generally beat xG to the extent that they are right now. When looking at last season’s data, they only overperformed on the attacking side by 12% in 2017/18, whereas right now they are doing so by 49%. That’s a lot.

  69. Paul Kelly

    Yes… Rodgers better than Emery.
    Proven premiership credentials.
    Astute in the transfer market.
    Kicks ass

  70. Un na naai

    Paul Kelly

    You from saaarf London? I know a Paul Kelly from South West. Used to dj at an Irish pub there on Sunday evenings.

  71. englandsbest

    Looking to the future, ‘get rid of’ must be our priority this summer. Not simply because the departees are not up to scratch, but also a reduced wage bill will provide cash for decent arrivals. We’d save £17m pa on Ozil alone.

    Moving on to ‘who do we get’, defenders come first to mind (and I don’t dispute that) but the signing I hope for most of all is a proper winger – better still, two of them – who can take a defender on the outside, and cross the ball impeccably.

    I don’t dig full-backs who think they are wingers or if I do, he has to be a bouncing ball like Ashley Cole, who was always there at the back when needed. I’d hate to count how many goals have been conceded by gaps left by, say, Bellerin, or Kenny Sansom.

    That old-fashioned simple ploy of playing full backs as full backs will tighten the defence immensely.

    Wingers are born not made. They have a special talent that ought to be nurtured not suppressed. We need one of those (or better still, two).

  72. Marko

    So TR7 if you can definitively judge a manager after 10 games surely you should be able to do some guesswork on a manager before even one game. So who are you thinking for next Arsenal manager?

  73. Un na naai

    Paul

    Ok. I’m sure it’s a perfectly common name
    That Paul Kelly was a tosser anyway. Used to try and bully teenagers. Made out he was Irish even though he was as English as fried bread. Thought he was a right hard man

  74. azed

    From statbomb

    That might get at Arsenal’s biggest problem right now. All the decisions taken at the club, since well before anyone currently involved arrived, have been geared towards Wenger’s methods. Emery is trying to introduce some new ideas to a squad accustomed to doing things a certain way. There are signs that his ideas are taking hold, even if it has not led to a substantial performance improvement, but it still feels too early to judge whether this is the correct course. Emery is turning a cruise ship around, and it will take time, but we can at least see that things are changing at Arsenal.

  75. azed

    Ok, so it seems like Arsenal haven’t played substantially better this season than last. But, you’re probably saying, this is the first season of a radical break from how things have been done at the club for the past two decades. It’s not about playing well right now, but building something that can be successful in the long term. So let’s take a look at the stylistic changes Emery is implementing.

    “Pressing” was something of a buzzword when Emery was appointed in the summer. Perhaps this was because of the success that fellow Premier League managers Pep Guardiola, Jürgen Klopp and Mauricio Pochettino have had with variations on the approach, or then Arsenal chief executive Ivan Gazidis’ description of Emery’s “progressive style of football”. A proactive, high pressing approach was what became expected, but it is not what has manifested. Arsenal are actually allowing opposition sides to complete slightly more passes on average (9.61) before making a defensive action than they did last season (8.96). When looking at their defensive distance, it has continued to largely fluctuate, and Arsenal are in fact doing their defending from slightly deeper positions than last year.

    What we are seeing more of, though, is aggression. This has been felt in Arsenal’s performances this season, with many bringing out the usual cliches of “desire” and commitment” after the win against Manchester United, but it can also be seen in the data. The team have seen a 24% increase in aggressive actions (tackles, pressure events and fouls a team makes within 2 seconds of an opposition ball receipt). Similarly, there has been a 12% increase on the percentage of opponent passes that are “aggressively” pressed by Arsenal. Emery might not necessarily be having his side press more or higher up the pitch, but when they do it, they apply an aggression that wasn’t previously seen.

  76. Spanishdave

    I wonder if Emery lost the players towards the end of the season as the last 8 games our performance became relegation level.
    His constant fiddling with formations certainly had the players confused, they lost the pressing, they had no confidence in forward passing, very nervous on the ball, it certainly went wrong.
    He has to go there’s no logic in wasting yet another year.

  77. Un na naai

    Azed

    Hahaha. So they learned how to beat Chelsea n spurs then conveniently forgot how to win when the big guns like wolves and Brighton rolled out

    What a turnip

  78. Dissenter

    CC
    You were directing your angst at the wrong individual.
    There was nothing wrong about the email Vinai sent. The email is not what was damning because there is NOTHING that the email could have stated that will soothe anyone. In fact I credit them for having the balls to send something. I would have just said…don’t sent anything. Speak with your actions.

    THE DAMNING THING IS KROENKE’S ABSENCE AND HIS SILENCE.

    Save your gunpowder or adjust the sights of your musket
    Let Vinai and Raul be. It is their first summer window. Let us judge them by what they do or don’t do.

  79. Dissenter

    Who cares what John Henry said. He too puffed the same corporate BS, powder puffery marketing crap.

    It is what John Henry has done that’s speaking for him.
    Action speaks louder that a million emails.

  80. James.wood

    I will run wth Brendan Rodgers at least you can understand him.
    Certainly will be better than watching Emery embarrassing himself
    On the line directing traffic.

  81. azed

    Anyone who has an idea of stats know the data doesn’t lie, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the data is telling the truth.

    xG and xGA are broad metrics that don’t tell the whole story.

    Liverpools xGa dropped with the signing of VVD.
    There’s a difference with City’s xGA with and without Fernadinho(I wonder why Arteta hasn’t fixed this since according to Pedro, quality of players don’t matter).

  82. Goonah

    ——Auba Laca Pepe————
    –Ndombele Rabiot Torreira–
    Chilwell Sok Konate Meunier
    ————-Leno——————–

    Fixed it. Sorted. Just sell a few deadweights.
    Me and the tea lady would romp the league.
    Get Arteta in and we win the CL too.

    How hard can it be?

    COYG

  83. Pedro

    Azed, xG told a story that the first half of our season was predicated on luck… you only needed to use your eyes to see that.

    Then, the correction came that proved it out.

    It’s an indicative number that paints a deeper picture on performance.

  84. azed

    “So they learned how to beat Chelsea n spurs then conveniently forgot how to win when the big guns like wolves and Brighton rolled out”

    Wolves rank 3 in the mini 6 league behind City and Pool…. We might as well call Pochettino a terrible manager right?

    The difference between a good player and a great one is consistency. So we might say its easier to get the players focused for big games vs the small ones. This is why the Energy levels are different when we played Spurs vs when we played Brighton.

    We have players that are not natural winners……

  85. Goonah

    It would actually be fun to see what happened if Emery was paid of his 6M£ and
    Arteta got the gig. 0M£ and no transfers ofcourse. Same as Klopp.
    Arteta only has to improve 1% to get 4th.
    Kroenke pockets another 30M£.

    Everyone is happy it seems?

  86. Pedro

    Azed, wasn’t Wenger’s issue with the same squad that he could win the small games but not against big 6?

  87. Emiratesstroller

    TR7

    Our defence is in decline, because
    a] We have three players in their 32-35 age group who are not good enough to
    play in EPL.
    b]We have Mustafi and Kolasinac who are headless chickens.
    c] We have Holding and Bellerin out with long term injuries.
    d] We have got Maitland-Niles who has not been educated how to defend properly.

    So our defensive resources in second half of season have not been fit for purpose.

  88. Danny M.O

    Judging by the internal email going around i think they are disregarding this year as transitional.

    There is no inquest or anything. Just blaming transition and stating we will go again with another 40m by the looks of it.

    Lets face it, we are a mediocre uefa cup team based off stans ambition. It serves us right to finish where we are considering how much money is being spent by everyone else.

  89. azed

    “Zardim and Naggelsmman are certainly much better than Emery.”

    TR7

    If Jardim is so good, why was Monaco almost relegated? Its not like this was his first season in French league. Its not like Jardim wasn’t the one who constructed that team so how did a supposed good manager end up in a relegation fight in Ligue un?

  90. Champagne Charlie

    Dissenter

    You praise Vinai for sending an internal email calling for ‘togetherness’ and ‘knowing’ they had the right people at the club? Of course you do.

    Then you dismiss John Henry’s public sentiments outlining the ambitious nature of Liverpool, who he says would still feel hollow despite a CL win as they want the PL? Again, utterly unsurprising.

    Odd cat you are sometimes.

  91. Marko

    I do actually like those managers and I wanted Jardim originally to replace Wenger. Given the state of the squad and what happened last summer I’m not sure there would have been much of a difference. They still would have been working with a lop sided weak mentally declining squad. Certainly in terms of Nagelsmann I don’t see him making our defenders smarter or making Ozil any less of a useless cunt

  92. Paul Kelly

    I think Spanish Dave has nailed it.

    Emery has lost the players.

    Wenger ( amazingly) never lost the players.

    He is history I’m afraid.

  93. azed

    “Wenger’s issue with the same squad that he could win the small games but not against big 6?”

    Pedro

    Until Emery lost half of his starting back 4, Emery was dealing with the small teams.

    Emery is not known to play with a back 3 and he didn’t start with a back 3 but situation forced his hand and he had to adapt. AMN and Kolasinac cannot play in a back 4 but they were our fullbacks for half the season. That doesn’t come up in the xG metrics.

    You say Emery hasn’t improved anything, but the stats tell a different story
    The team have seen a 24% increase in aggressive actions (tackles, pressure events and fouls a team makes within 2 seconds of an opposition ball receipt). Similarly, there has been a 12% increase on the percentage of opponent passes that are “aggressively” pressed by Arsenal. Emery might not necessarily be having his side press more or higher up the pitch, but when they do it, they apply an aggression that wasn’t previously seen.

    Even tactical article about Emery says his teams like to press but he doesn’t the players to do that at Arsenal so he can either force the players to do it his way or he can adapt to the players that he has at his disposal.

    Pep binned Joe Hart and Bravo under 2 seasons because money wasn’t a problem. Do you think City would have been this good if Pep has to decide between buying Ederson and Kyle Walker?

  94. TR7

    Azed

    Dortmund were on the brink of relegation too under Klopp, so what ? Jardim has been recalled by Monaco, suggests they value his work. Zardim has managed to get his teams to play a defined brand of football, he has a history of nurturing young players and getting them to perform at a good level and unlike Conte and Mancini, he doesn’t throw tantrums for more transfer fund. One blip in a decade old career doesn’t make someone a bad manager.

  95. James.wood

    I eluded to Auba and Laca showing some form of dissent when they where
    Subbed by Emery so perhaps he has lost their backing.
    He certainly fell out with Ramsey so who knows.

    He comes over as a bit erratic players have to be man managed and perhaps with his broken English ,communication and understanding to the players is proving difficult.
    I can see Auba Leaving.?

  96. azed

    “Jardim has been recalled by Monaco, suggests they value his work. ”

    You can say the same thing for Emery.
    Until he gets fired, you can say the hierarchy values his work and know that it would take a while to be competitive.

    Arsenal should be mildly worried about the potential of slipping into mid-table because they have downside risk coming from the current squad construction, the reliance on older players, and the limited amount of assets that can be sold at close to top value. A good number of Arsenal’s main contributors are late peak-age or already at the wrong end of the age curve. More than anything, a big worry for Arsenal has been the collective decline in athleticism and dynamism over the years. Look up and down the roster, and there’s a noticeable lack of eye-popping young talent. This is the byproduct of years of neglecting to prop up a young, talented nucleus.

  97. azed

    TR 7

    Like Emirates Stroller has said earlier, this are the centre defenders Emery met at the club
    Koscienly 33 years old and just came back from an achilles injury. He’s a player that relied on pace rather than positioning.
    Nacho Monreal 33 years old
    Rob Holding 23 years old
    Skrodan Mustafi 26 years old
    Konstans Mavropanos 20 years old.

    Is there any in this list that would be interesting to any of our rivals(Holding aside)?

  98. Receding Hairline

    I’m not getting pulled into the Jardim argument.. Had enough of that to last me a lifetime. Let him clear the mess at Monaco first,not come here to reap the rewards of another’s work.

  99. gambon

    Interestingly, for the people that think xG and performance metrics are nonsense – there was a great piece in one if the newspapers the other day about Liverpool’s head of analysis.

    He’s a real stats nerd.

    He determined that Dortmund in 2014/15 we’re actually the second best team in Germany by performance and they had finished 7th due to incredible bad luck.

    So despite everyone being wary of Klopp, this understanding of performance metrics got them one of the world’s best managers.

    A lot of people on here would have been begging for Dieter Hecking of Wolfsburg who finished second.

    Luckily for Liverpool they arent flat earthers.

  100. Receding Hairline

    As for Nagglesman, he just moved up a level, RB recruit well, let’s see if he betters the work of his predecessor.

    Or will a 5th place finish for Leipzig next season be seen as an improvement because their manager has a clear style of play? Doubt it

  101. azed

    Not one soul has said Emery is the long term solution for the club. What I, Dissenter and Receding are saying is rather than spend money paying off Emery and his crew, use that money to bring in young talent.

    When Emery’s contract is up, a Jardim or Naggelsmman can be brought in and they would have a base to build from.

  102. Champagne Charlie

    “Let him clear the mess at Monaco first,not come here to reap the rewards of another’s work.“

    Reap the rewards of who’s work?

  103. bennydevito

    Ebening Grovers,

    Sorry Pedro but like I said on Twitter; the day they start handing out titles and trophies based on XG will be the day I’ll start caring about it.

    And during our 22 game unbeaten run didn’t our XG show we should have been losing and mid table?

    XG doesn’t take into account unmeasurables like luck, injuries, age and player decline, clinical or lack of clinical finishing in terms if being able to take that 1 chance out of 10 or that 1 chance out of 1 when we’ve been completely outplayed, bad refereeing decisions and all sorts of things that also effect the outcome of a match.

    In terms of points mean prizes it’s irrelevant and is just a stat for train spotters.

    I think we’re all agreed that Emery isn’t the coach to take on Klopp and Pep but in terms of progress or lack of progress the only stats that matter are the ones contained in the Premier league table.

    7pts more, 11pts closer to 4th, only 2pts away from 3rd, more games won, more games won and points away from home and getting to a European cup final is progress and is the only relevant progress that is measurable based on the league table no matter how painful it is and how much it flies in the face of the Emery haters and Wenger PTSD sufferers.

    Not one fan on this blog would care if Emery was fired tomorrow, not a single one.

    Our defence hasn’t improved that is a fact but our senior players are another year over the hill and we had many injuries to contend with.

    But real actual relevant progress even though small has been made.

    It’s uncomfortable and inconvenient for many on here to admit but that is the simple truth of the matter.

  104. Goonah

    How does Artetas xG and peformance metrics hold up to other coaches?

    Does he get a base Pep level or how does it work?

  105. Receding Hairline

    Sarabia has a buy out clause of 17m, apparently Madrid are interested, wouldn’t have been a bad option for us

    United favorites for Rabiot

    Liverpool considering Pepe

    Inter going in hard for Barrella …conte already moving

  106. azed

    “He determined that Dortmund in 2014/15 we’re actually the second best team in Germany by performance and they had finished 7th due to incredible bad luck.”

    25 year old Sokratis was a back up in that team. In 2019, 30 year old Sokratis is the best centre defender we have.
    xG doesn’t measure talent level so it tells one part of the story.

  107. Marko

    Interestingly, for the people that think xG and performance metrics are nonsense

    I don’t dismiss it I just don’t think it’s the only indicator of progress or decline.

  108. Receding Hairline

    Charles Cech and Sokratis believe a lot of work was put in this season behind the scenes.. Seeing as they both play for Arsenal and you don’t I will take their word for it thanks.

    If you think Emery sat on his hands for 12 months it’s your prerogative…. You jump on every Emery compliment like a personal insult to you.

  109. Dissenter

    CC
    I think you missed the part where I stated that action speaks louder than words.
    John Henry’s actions are what has gootne Liverpool to where they are, not some tweets or emails.
    Like when he gave Arsenal the middle finger for the 40,000,001 offer for Suarez.
    Actions speaks louder that words, is that so had for you to get.

    I will wait to see what Raul and Vinai do or fail to do before I start jumping at some silly email.
    You tend to have limited visual field when these things happen
    Kroenke should have been the one talking after the loss, not the co-executive of the club
    You miss the picture so much…going after some silly emails.

  110. TR7

    ‘Is there any in this list that would be interesting to any of our rivals(Holding aside)?’

    Again conflating squad issues with assessment of Emery. Any manager would look decent with a back 4 of Kompany,VVD, Marcelo and Alba but that’s not the point here. The question that you need to ask yourself is whether Emery was able to build an organized defense ? Did he improve positional awareness of our defenders ? Was he able to.instill some discipline in to our back 4 ? What has been his value add as a manager ?

  111. Valentin

    There are different types of billionaire owner of football club. Some are in it for fun and personal prestige: Abramovitch. Some are in it as proxy for a country: ManCity. Some are in it as investment. For some it is a short term investment where they hope to reap the benefit after a few years of ownership: Liverpool. For others, it is a long term investment where the asset will appreciate itself in 15 years: Arsenal.

    Some fans have lost all sense of reality if they think that any long term investor will pour money into his/her club to jump-start it from also-ran to premiership contender. A short term investor might do that. Quick in and out to flip the club. Long term asset investors don’t do that.

    For Arsenal what is required is at least 3 years of incremental progress. During that period, we need every year to buy at strategical positions better player. Once we are in the Champion’s league (hopefully after year one of the new reset), we need to cement that 3rd place while trying to get closer to the top 2.
    Then we can have a go at trying to win the premier League.

    Anything else is a pipe dream.
    Unless Spurs collapse under their debt, ManCity ban from the Champion’s league and Qatar got bored with football, Arsenal is unlikely to win the premiership in the next 2~3 years.

  112. Champagne Charlie

    Benny

    You realise you can be 11 points closer to 4th by virtue of the 4th place side being worse than the previous season right? It doesn’t explain progression on our part.

    Points/wins are the result of performance, so you measure performance (as Gambon has detailed) to determine if what you’re witnessing is par for the course, or if you’re overachieving/underachieving relative to the performance you’re putting in.

    As such it’s terribly simplistic to say ‘we were 7 points better….progress’. I could just as easy write those 7 points off down to Auba being here a full season, which is nothing to do with Emery and his input.

  113. TR7

    Receding

    ‘Charles Cech and Sokratis believe a lot of work was put in this season behind the scenes.. Seeing as they both play for Arsenal and you don’t I will take their word for it thanks.’

    We had players saying similar things about Wenger even in his disastrous last season. I wouldn’t read too much in to what Papa and Cech have to say about Emery.

  114. Kwame

    The fortunes of a football club are as good as the ambition(s) of the owner(s). We are where we are today because our God damned capitalist American owner’s interest in the club is not in synch with that of the fans. We all know what Emery’s fate would have been if he was the coach for Barca, RM, Bayern, Chelsea, Manure. The owners of these clubs respect their fans. They know that whatever decisions they make must as much as possible inure to the interest of all stakeholders of their respective clubs. The fight to bring our dear club back to its elite status must not end with the ousting of Wenger. Kroenke must be made to respect the fans! Without the support of the fans Kroenke would run from Arsenal and leave his pants behind!

  115. Dissenter

    Valentin
    “Anything else is a pipe dream.
    Unless Spurs collapse under their debt, ManCity ban from the Champion’s league and Qatar got bored with football,Anything else is a pipe dream.
    Arsenal is unlikely to win the premiership in the next 2~3 years.

    That’s true under any manager we would have gotten.
    Even Pep wouldn’t win the league with out squad if the owners don’t invest heavily.
    Revise that statement to state that “Arsenal is unlikely to win the premiership in the next TEN years.”
    Our model is only good for midtable mediocrity. The fans will have to vote with their feet at some point.

  116. jwl

    Flaws of xG, taken from vikigenius on Reddit –

    1) xG does not take into account the previous record for a single player. In a given position in a given situation, Danny Welbeck has the same xG to score as Cristiano Ronaldo. Of course this will help when comparing players and we can conclude that Ronaldo is a better finisher. But if we use it to argue that Arsenal had the same chance to score as Real Madrid, then it becomes false, because it doesn’t take into account that Ronaldo is the better finisher.

    2) The xG system typically has a minimum value below which it is clipped off. Say 0.1 This means that no matter how bad a shot is it will have an xG of at least 0.1.

    Example: Let us say, Ander Herrera decided to take 10 shots from outside the box, as is typical none of them have a chance in hell of ever being a goal, but by definition his total xG is 1. Contrast to say Lukaku being in a 1 on 1 situation only once with a xG of 0.7. I will take the latter situation every game.

    3) This also means that players who shoot a lot, tend to have lesser goals than their xG or almost equal to xG, even if they are very good finishers. And players who shoot very less and score from counters tend to have a lot more goals then their xG would suggest This can be offset when players who shoot a lot actually manage to score off long shots, since that gives a huge jump in outperforming xG.

    4) Let us come to one of the biggest flaws in xG. As much as it tries not to, currently xG always paints counterattacking/park the bus teams in poor light.

    This means that it doesn’t take into account the defensive organization of a parked bus, where players close down and block the angles or block the shot.

    This also means that it doesn’t take into account the vulnerability of high line teams when faced with a good counterattack because, even though it is easier to score from 20 yards with 1 or 2 defenders ahead of you as opposed to a parked bus the xG is going to be same.

  117. Champagne Charlie

    “If you think Emery sat on his hands for 12 months it’s your prerogative…. You jump on every Emery compliment like a personal insult to you.“

    No I happen to disagree with some things that are said and I offer a counter to them. That’s how it works, not your ‘won’t change my mind in a million years’ bollocks.

    I’m not suggesting Emery has sat on his hands, I’m suggesting the work he’s put in hasn’t borne any fruit – hence him not being up to task. I’ve nothing against Emery, he seems a decent bloke, but he’s not affecting any discernible change at the club where it’s desperately needed.

    @Dissenter
    I’m not “going after” anything you fucking drama queen. I commented on how meek the message in the email was, especially compared to rivals leadership who are saying the right things and then delivering.

    Thanks for the concern though, but worry about your own thoughts instead of trying to police mine.

  118. azed

    “The question that you need to ask yourself is whether Emery was able to build an organized defense ? Did he improve positional awareness of our defenders ? ”

    Before Holding and Bellerin’s injuries, the defence was looking way better. Everyone acknowledged that.

    It would be fool hardy to expect improvements from Koscienly and Monreal as they winding up their careers.

    Important to note that the Xhaka and Torriera partnership was improving until Torriera ran out of gas.

    “The 23-year-old told Sky Sports: “The main difference is how we’re defending when we’re attacking.

    “When we’re up the other end of the pitch, how we are organised and prepared for a counter.

    “That has been the biggest difference.

    “We’re really focusing on video work, moving as little as five yards in some positions which makes all the difference when getting to the ball.

    “When we were playing we would be stood there and no one would be talking to each other, whereas now there is much more communication.

    “We seem a bit more organised and a bit more together at the back.”

    You can also take the comments made by Cech about the work done behind the scenes coming into fruition next season how you like.(the truth or bs)

  119. Ishola70

    I only read about the main premise of xG to see that it is flawed like all stats that try to be too clever and deep.

    They mark regarding shots from central areas and wider areas.

    The problem with this is that just marking down like this doesn’t take into consideration the players involved and their characteristics and traits. A keeper may be better or worse in one area central or nearer to his posts. A player missing from a central position is not necessarily failing in comparison to a player putting a shot wide from a wider position. The xG notion of what is a real chance in a game can be seen as hit and miss. And who are these people compiling these stats? Why should I trust these people and their evaluations when we see that simple decisions on VAR pitch side are even called incorrectly.

    And those calling for the head of Emery this early are pissing in the wind. You are better off venting your indignation at those above Emery who are not even considering his exit at this point.

    Just a little patience. If he is indeed not up to task he will fall soon enough.

  120. Valentin

    @Dissenter,

    That’s where you are wrong. With a carefully planned approach Arsenal can be a Premiership contender within 5 years.
    ManCity can only buy 25 players for their squad. That leaves a lot of very good players to purchase.

    The difference is that ManCity can buy an entire squad in one or two transfer window. Arsenal can’t.

    Look at Liverpool, incremental progress for a few years, then two big purchases per season for two year (past and next).

    Those initial purchases don’t even need to be expensive, they just need to be smart and fitting the team.

  121. Marko

    I did read somewhere that there was people behind the scenes that weren’t happy with the amount of progress made compared to Wenger so they do have some worries about Emery in his first season. But they’re not worried enough to bip him after one season. Obviously aware that more work needs to be done I guess

  122. Dissenter

    CC
    You’re the freaking drama queen looking for strength in an email that was sent to soothe distressed fans at the club.
    You’ weren’t talking about “delivering” yesterday, just some silly email that was sent.
    I’m the one who was urging restraint to see what will actually get done.

    Had you lamented about the absence or silence of Kroenke, you may have had a pint. Instead you got bogged down in the weeds as usual. Reminds me of the times you muzzled yourself from speaking out against Wenger when he was going the very thing you’re lambasting.

    Remember the “next level is the next level”?

  123. TR7

    Azed

    ‘“We seem a bit more organised and a bit more together at the back.”

    We have conceded 49 goals this season and haven’t had a single clean sheet away to any team which wasn’t a man down. We have suffered the heaviest defeat in a cup final ever. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. Media bites mean nothing really if the on field performance don’t back the assertion made. We have been anything but organized at the back.

  124. Valentin

    @jwl,

    An xG is a statistical chance of scoring based on the opportunity presented during the game. It is a team statistic, not a single player one.

    If you want to compare between two players, you need to compare their conversion rate and their average number of shot taken per 90 minutes . I’ll give you that even that conversion rate metric could be improved in that it does not give you the full picture, because that does not make the distinction between shot outside the box, inside the box, 1v1, speculative shot, penalty, free-kick.