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Liverpool are well and truly choking on their Premiership title dreams, yesterday dropping points to an Everton team in dire straits on and off the pitch. It’s a shame for Jurgen Klopp; a man who is on everyone’s ‘I’d like to be best pals’ wishlist, because I think most feel it’d be great for football if he won something huge.
Liverpool has spent well, the football vision is exciting, but it’s starting to look like this season might be a little beyond them. Pep G’s winning machine – supported by my best pal – looks like it’s just finding its winning gear, whilst Klopp’s is sputtering like an office shredder you’ve accidentally dropped a Darren Anderton autobiography into.
It’s interesting to read the excuses coming out the of the club, Klopp classically lambasting the wind definitely up there with anything Wenger cited in his latter years. I also think it’s amusing reading around the Liverpool fans, excuses ranging from HE’S A FRAUD, which I have to say is outright one of the most pathetic critiques spouted online. It should be a hate crime to call CR7 a fraud, yet all the kids say it everytime he doesn’t score a hattrick. RONALDO A FRAUD DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE WORD. PEP G A FRAUD ARE YOU JOKING?! GET IN THE BIN YOU VIRGIN.
Back to the post… the other twist on the Klopp choke I read was, ‘well, he could finish as a record-breaking second placed team.’
Intriguing, because my initial reaction to hearing this was: PFFFFFTTTTT!
That did get me thinking because there’s a lot of referencing yesteryears points totals when trying to ascertain current progress.
Would anyone really be happy with a record-breaking second place? Is that like the Buffalo Bills making 4 Super Bowls? Can points totals year-on-year be used to ascertain success?
I have to say, I wasn’t sure about this.
Does 90 points carry the same value in 2019 as it did in 2015?
Are the smaller teams getting better, thus making high points totals even more spectacular?
Does comparing two different league seasons, where so many variables change, really act as a good barometer for progress or success?
Can you really be classed as a choking meltface if you break 90 points?
I spent some time thinking about these important questions. I dug around the hard numbers instead of dropping a factually loose hot take, which would usually be my preferred weapon of choice. I was surprised by what I found.
The difference between 6th and 7th felt like a good place to begin my investigation to ascertain if the league really was getting better.
Points gap between 6th/7th
| 2012 | 8 |
| 2013 | 2 |
| 2014 | 5 |
| 2015 | 2 |
| 2016 | 1 |
| 2017 | 8 |
| 2018 | 9 |
| 2019 | 13 |
2012 to 2017, the average difference was 5 points. This season, despite all the praise Wolves and Watford are receiving, the difference between Chelsea and Wolves/Watford is a whopping 13 points. If anything, it would appear from this data point that the league is getting less competitive below the top 6.
In 2012, Newcastle were in the top 6. Everton in 2013 and 2014. 2016, Leicester won the thing and Southampton were 6th (unreal).
The last two seasons have seen a return to normality. The big clubs are occupying the big spots. This season looks set to follow the same trend. The league doesn’t seem to be getting better across the spectrum, it’s getting better at the top as the mightiest concentrate power by doubling down on better players and elite coaches.
So from a Liverpool perspective, can you really say that a record-breaking 2nd place is an achievement? Maybe. In fact, probably. NO, I’d say you certainly can.
| League Year | 1st/2nd Gap | 1st pts Total |
| 2012 | 0 | 89 |
| 2013 | 11 | 89 |
| 2014 | 2 | 86 |
| 2015 | 8 | 87 |
| 2016 | 10 | 81 |
| 2017 | 7 | 93 |
| 2018 | 19 | 100 |
| 2019 | 1 | 71 |
The points total for winning the league has really ramped up over the past two seasons. City dropped 100 points last year with a 19 point gap between 1st and 2nd, the average gap the preceding 6 seasons was only 6.3 points. If both City and Liverpool take 22 points from their last 9 games, they’ll finish on 93 and 92 points. Liverpool would have closed the gap, no doubt, and really, after the utter dominance of last season’s City, that’s a good thing for the league.
Can you call a team that breaks 90 points bottlers? Absolutely. It’s hilarious to do so because journalists who have lost touch with the realities of fandom write op-eds about how terrible this sort of analysis is… bit like me with the word FRAUD. But, the reality is, it’s hard to call anyone reaching 90+ points a bottler. That’s league winning numbers. It’s incredible consistency, skill, hard work, fitness and focus. It’s paper thin margins at this level, a point difference at the end of a season is not a coin toss between world class and BOTTLE JOB. It’s luck of the draw.
Additionally, a points progression for Arsenal would be a notable achievement because we were 9 points off 7th, and whopping 12 points off of 4th place last season. I think it’s looking like it’ll be very tough for us to make #Top4, but if we’re within spitting distance, Emery will be able to point to Ozil and Ramsey struggles and he’ll probably be able to pull together a sizzle reel of Mustafi playing his Nintendo Switch at corners that’d likely make a good case for investment delivering a higher position.
Just some extra numbers, because why the hell not. The average points total for the wooden spoon has been 25 points over the past 7 seasons, the outlier being Villa finishing with 17 points the year we downed them in the FA Cup.
Despite common consensus, the league isn’t really getting better, I think it’s just a perspective thing. Watford and Wolves are the new Stoke, Everton and Southampton. When they drop a result against a mega team, you feel like you’ve never seen it before, even though you have, it’s just you’re used to a different colour kit for your upsets.
I’m basically saying you’re stupid and I am clever because I have a really good spreadsheet.
Also worth remembering that if Liverpool drop 90+ points, they’ll have jumped over 15 points in a single season. If Monchi comes in and works the transfer market really well, there’s really no reason for us not to expect similar levels of progress.
The competitiveness of the Premier League is also exciting when you look across Europe and what Champions League money has allowed big clubs to do. This from Rory Smith.
In the Belarusian Premier League, BATE Borisov has won 12 titles in a row. In Switzerland, Basel has swept the last eight. In Bulgaria and Scotland, Ludogorets Razgrad and Celtic have been untouchable for six. In Croatia, Rijeka won the championship last year. But the previous 11 had all gone to Dinamo Zagreb.
These are no longer title races. They are now simply processions, their result almost preordained, entire seasons stripped of drama and intrigue.
Over the last five years, Olympiacos has received more than $125 million from its Champions League appearances. Basel has brought in $68 million. BATE, thanks to three appearances in the group stage, has earned $50 million, and Dinamo Zagreb $55 million.
So even as we chant BOTTLE JOB MUGS at our southern scouser friends at work today, just be thankful there’s a race this season, and maybe excite yourself at the thought that they were in a poorer position squad wise than us when Klopp took over.
Right, that’s me done. See your sexy faces in the comments. x
On the p!us side we have only conceded 2 goals in 4 games. 4-2-3-1 with the full backs not so advanced is the way to get results ..I know I have been harping on about it for 3 months or more but finally , at long last we are nearly playing the system that suits the players best. This system gives us the best of both worlds , solidity at the back plus it allows the offensive 4 to be more creative without the worry of us being open to the counter if they lose the ball. 2 solid midfielders… Read more »
Pierre “2 solid midfielders to protect the back 4 and you have a team who can compete against anyone.” Normally I would agree with you, Pierre, but I think it’s more important to have one guy in midfield with pace and grit, and another one with the ability to dribble past a couple of defenders to move the ball forward. Getting Torreira and Guendouzi was good business in the summer but none of them can string two passes together and are not good dribblers. Personally I think the main guy we needed to replace was Santi Cazorla. He was that… Read more »
“So we’ve had Keith Flint and Luke Perry die today. There’s got to be some old actor out there who’s bricking it!”
The Ramsey curse is alive and well.
” I think it’s more important to have one guy in midfield with pace and grit, and another one with the ability to dribble past a couple of defenders to move the ball forward”
I would say we definitely need an upgrade on Iwobi. Having a winger in the mold of Sane improves our attack tremendously and would keep teams honest.
“4-2-3-1 with the full backs not so advanced is the way to get results ..I know I have been harping on about it for 3 months or more but finally , at long last we are
nearly playing the system that suits the players best.”
Bellerin and Kolasinac are better attacking than defending.
Mustafi is not a right back and Monreal was injured for the first half of the season.
Upstate
I’m not against having someone with the quality of Cazorla in midfield, he did provide the link and we haven’t replaced him.
Torreira, though not as technically gifted as Cazorla, could play a similar role as I think there is a lot more to come from him..
The manager needs to let him settle back into the role of protecting the back 4 instead of demanding too much of him.
He looked a far better player earlier in the season .
So it looks like Alexis is out for 6-8 weeks and won’t be facing us on Sunday. I have to say that as much as I hate to see any player hurt, I’m a bit relieved. That’s like facing ManU/RvP back in the day. Still expecting a tough game but I really do fancy our chances.
Azed “Bellerin and Kolasinac are better attacking than defending.” If their position is full back , then they should play as full back and support the attack if needed. This season it has always looked like our full backs are being asked to play too advanced , hence our dreadful defensive record this season through leaving space down the channels. If it means playing .Monreal and Mustafi as full backs to make us more solid then that’s fine . We have enough attacking talent to create chances and as I said earlier , the offensive players can play with more… Read more »
“If their position is full back , then they should play as full back and support the attack if needed.”
Kolasinac’s position is full back in theory but you and I know that Kolasinac has no clue about defending or even basic positioning.
I’d like to think Emery recognizes this and telling Kolasinac to stay put means we miss out on his offensive side while gaining nothing from him defensively.
Why is xhaka suddenly being called caca lol…I’ve seen it multiple times
Brilliant read here: https://www.ft.com/content/908752aa-3a1b-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0
What. Are you trying to get us to subscribe to the financial times? Cause I won’t
Cracking read for those interested in football innovation.
https://www.ft.com/content/908752aa-3a1b-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0
SPOILER: Barca players drink juice. Who was arguing with me on here about that the other week?
Marko, go via incognito or search the article link via google
https://www.ft.com/content/908752aa-3a1b-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0
Good read that… the innovation hub is the next level.
Ooops was gonna give you an assist Pedro… I read it though.. the problem is Barca has Messi to build on… face of the organization…. We haven’t had that type of thing since Thierry Henry… and we didn’t take advantage of it enough.
Midwest, Hoffenheim invest in this sort of shit and they were in the 5th division ten year ago.
It reminds me though of that .. Passing machine that Dortmund built to train their players. Some Clubs take things next level. I saw a video of Pulisic training on that thing.. was unreal.
Yeah I think Hoffenheim built one too.
That is the type of thing you need an owner to take the lead on .. For example… Stan is building the same type of complex for the Rams.. I guess it will be like the 3rd wonder of the modern world once completed.. would he do the same thing for Arsenal? I’m not sure about that..
Pedro – great read. What I found really interesting was the fact that Barça employs data analysts and has access to extensive data analysts, but that everybody involved, from the manager on down (including the analysts) is still pretty sceptical about the value of the data in understanding what makes a good player/team or tactics. In the end, what they really wanted, more than pace, power, acceleration, endurance etc.. was intangible: an “intelligent” player. Someone like Messi, Xavi or Busquets! It’s clear that their is a lot of brainpower and science involved, but that football is still at the beginning… Read more »
Mid, it’s the type of thing Raul should take a lead on. Stan isn’t going to be interested in the future of load mapping.
Does anybody feel like copying and pasting that article?
I can’t seem to get past the subscription thing no matter what I try…
G daddy-
It’s a pretty massive article.. I found it by google search and could read it through that link.. but when you copy paste it.. it gives you the subscription thing.
Another interesting little factoid from the article was that the Barça people believe that Liverpool have the leading data analytics people in football.
It would be really interesting to understand how much of the improvement in Liverpool’s play over the last3-4 years has been driven by the analytics supporting Klopp’s high intensity “heavy metal” style of play
Words, it’s not skepticism, it’s humans protecting their role.
Tech should always be a support for creativity.
Words, they borrow heavily from American sports.
MEGA POST for Groovey A little man in a baseball cap, sitting high in his luxury crossover SUV, drives into the players’ parking lot at FC Barcelona’s closed training ground. Lionel Messi, the world’s best footballer, is reporting for work. We’re used to seeing footballers in stadiums but, in fact, the place where they spend most of their working lives, their equivalent of the office, is the training ground. Barcelona’s Ciutat Esportiva Joan Gamper, named after the club’s founder, sits at the western edge of town. FC Barcelona vie with their eternal rivals Real Madrid for the unofficial title of… Read more »
Pedro, yeah sorry, scepticism isn’t the right word – too strong.
What I meant to say is that they recognise that the analysis is still in its early stages of development in terms of what makes a good/great player, and how to improve that player
Cheers sal. For some reason I just couldn’t get the article
Not to worry boys I left out the image from article or Ronaldinho and Sol getting down in 06.
That will never not haunt.
Almunia getting beat near post by Eto… smh.
Nope. Still hitting the pay wall.
Oh well.
Cheers Sal!
Sure, we look at the data of a player we’re interested in.“For example, if we’re going to buy Lenglet [the defender Clément Lenglet, signed from Sevilla for €35m last summer], we look at his speed, his number of ball recoveries, the attacks he has interrupted.” But, above all, says Valverde, the club ask people around the player about his psychology. “Because if a guy comes here with amazing data but he’s [psychologically] a satellite . . . ” Good article. I like this part though because I have a feeling that we signed one or two players in the last few years based purely… Read more »
Marko, for Mustafi, maybe we forgot to specify “number of fouls in dangerous areas” and “number of penalties conceded” as key metrics for a central defender!
Oh and I forgot “number of sliding tackles in and around the penalty area”
“This is a game where the coach has less margin than any coach in another sport, because I’m shouting to the player over there, and he doesn’t hear me, and the one by my side doesn’t either. This is a continuous sport in which the coach has barely any influence, or at least much less than in basketball: we only have three substitutions, the game never stops [for time-outs]. So, football belongs to the players. For 45 minutes at a time, non-stop, the player takes his own decisions. I have to say that the great players analyse the game better… Read more »
Fast Freddie
Better players indeed.
Something like this doable for next season….. maybe.
_Nkunku__PEA___Mhki_
________Aouar______
____Torreira__Guend__
Gayà__M.Sarr__Sokratis__Bellerin
___________Leno____________
Biggest task for Emery and Co this summer is figuring what happens with Ozil and executing. The options are sell, sell + pay some wage or get him performing weekly. Hamstrung until that happens.
Nkunku isn’t a winger and Aouar is gonna be so tough to pick up because he’s highly sought after. I can see Cengiz or Pepe and someone else being targeted as forwards and I’ve a feeling that Tagliafico and Konate will be the defensive targets at the very least. After that a midfielder might be targeted if certain players are sold. I’m expecting us to be busy especially if Monchi is hired. That or Kroenke out
Unai Emery on Nkunku:
“He is capable of playing out wide on either flank, through the centre and even as a wing-back, a mix of positions ”
Don’t be such a kill joy Marko, Aouar is a possible if they get it right.
This summer is going to be epic.. No WC.. No Euro distractions. No Wenger dithering.. Questions remain… will we get CL.. Will we be able to move out big pay wage players. And who will be healthy and will any youth players be promoted.. Stay tuned.. actually looking forward to a summer transfer window for once to be honest.
Marko Can’t see us not at least trying for Fornals and Brandt, we can’t resist a cheap buyout clause and at 22m each they’re both bargains. Pepe would be an incredible bonus. Could see us going for Marcus Thuram if we decide to raise funds by selling one of our strikers. Can play on the wing as well. Can’t see us going for Nkunku and Aouar will be almost impossible to get as you say with City and Barca interested among others. Hoping for a CM to replace Xhaka, preferably Rabiot on a free along with a CB and LB.… Read more »
It’s like saying AMN can play on the wing I mean he can but Nkunku is primarily a CM I would be disappointed if the best we could do is get Nkunku in and play him on the wing. I would say that Aouar is a dream I’m not being a kill joy I’d absolutely love him he’s an outstanding talent but the second he comes available in the transfer market you’ll have everyone after him. Fornals much more likely. I wonder if the stuff about Brandt having a reasonable release clause is true. I wonder if that’s something we’re… Read more »
I’d wager were selling one of our strikers to generate funds, my moneys on Lacazette. I’m not happy about it, but that the reality.
Unless we get Champions league.
Pedro
All the data analytics in the world has not stopped Barca from signing shitty platers over the past few years.
We have a Barca player in our camp who’s not better than Iwobi.
At the very least we should be in for a good summer. Depending on our final league position if could be great. Monchi in with a decent budget and carte blanche over the squad could be the kick in the balls this club needs
The defining factor for Barca is Leo Messi, forget all the data nonsense … and I’m not ridiculing data.
All the best data cannot replace a once-in-a-century player.
Messi alone is responsible for at least a quarter of the growth that club has had in the last decade.
Great line about Messi in that article from Valverde.
“Messi reserves the first minutes of match for interpretation….”
Gold
Iwobi reserves the first minute of matches for rehydration from last nights Rave.
Lol I kid… I kid.
I think one of the strikers are off too. Saw that marca had us linked with Jovic. On a two year loan with an option to buy for 6 million euros you’d imagine Frankfurt will buy him for 6 and sell him for something we could afford. 30-40 million I would imagine. It’d be a smart move replacing a 27 or 30 year old with a 21 year old hot prospect
Looool
Ravwobi crushing Berocca to get thru the opening 10, awaiting the residual from last night to kick in.
TRUTH
Wobs pregame…
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5ocxp
Late to the party but I would like to give a thumbs up to Pedro for this article.
Don’t forget psg and juve
Apart from the sick Monaco campaign both psg and juve have owned a monopoly on titles for ages between those leagues
People talk up Italy because tons and Napoli are decent teams, but the reality is Italy is a one team league and a foregone conclusion recently.
Because Roma*
Sorry to be a kill joy but I don’t have faith that arsenal will sign more than 2 or 3 bailed on starters this summer
China
Freddie is living in la la PlayStation land. We aren’t going out and buying half a new team and certainly nowhere near the quality he thinks we should be attracting.
Arsenal’s time at the top table is over for a few years
Time to just accept it
Yes, UN, how could we possibly be looking at 2 22m players, 1 on a free and Konate at 30m and Thuram at 20-25, we should aim much lower than that. What can we get in the sub 5m bracket?
Messi is an extreme case: he reserves the “first minutes” of each match for interpretation, says Valverde.During that time, the player ignores the ball and takes a reconnaissance walk around the opposition defence, fixing each man’s position in his head. Valverde says: “Then, as the game advances, he gets in little by little. But he knows perfectly where the rivals’ weaknesses are.” This I like , it shows intelligence on a football pitch and I have no doubt that Messi has the same level of thinking throughout the game , looking for weaknesses in the opposition whilst the ball is… Read more »
“Yes, UN, how could we possibly be looking at 2 22m players, 1 on a free and Konate at 30m and Thuram at 20-25, we should aim much lower than that. What can we get in the sub 5m bracket?“
Just the 100 mil then, and that’s without considering the outlay it would take to bring Rabiot on board as a bosman. You saw the numbers involved with Ramsey’s Juve deal, you actually think Rabiot is going to be looking for less?
Depends on our budget no? Reports vary between 45 and 100m, without selling anyone. We could basically break even if we sold off Mustafi, Chambers, Elneny and Xhaka and one of our strikers. If we sell/give away Ozil as well we free up a lot of wages. (That’s 2 players that doesn’t play for us and our 2 weakest links gone, hardly groundbreaking stuff) Rabiot was going to sign for Barca for 10-15m signing on fee and 170k wages, you think we can’t afford that? I’m not saying this is what will happen btw, I’m saying it’s something we can… Read more »
Freddie
You know the figures involved with Rabiot verbatim? Or are you basing that, and some valuations, on paper talk?
Of course it depends on our budget, it always does. Not one player over 30 mil though so that will mean certain fans aren’t happy to call that ambitious, or expect that 5 ‘superior’ players will lead to a better team.
You can read Barcelona FT article behind paywall without subscribing via the link: https://outline.com/SYtfeJ.
keef66, Spurs are more than capable of winning the Champions League.