Enjoy the monthly column from Jonathan. Make sure to follow him @jblauphoto
It’s Monday, January 28th, (as I write this,) and Arsenal are the 6th best football club in England.
(I don’t want to hear that we’re still ahead of United on goal different. Shut your mouth.)
It’s a cold, sunny Monday here in the Rocky Mountains, and I’m trying to synopsize the last month for you, since I wrote my “what the fuck is Emery thinking?” column at the end of the year.
At this point, 8 months into his reign, I’d say that the jury is still out on Unai Emery, but doubts are beginning to creep into the global fan base.
(Will he ever stick with one line-up? Or formation? Does he have a grand plan?)
Personally, I was pretty surprised he didn’t run out the same lineup for the United FA Cup match that crushed Chelsea earlier in the week.
Surely, outside of changing the goal-keeper, I thought he would have to play the same team, given how well they handled Chelsea.
Three DM’s supporting 2 (finally) capable CBs, with Ramsey feeding Lacazette and Aubameyang.
I was sure he’d go back to the well.
But, of course, I was wrong.
You can understand why he put Iwobi into the team ahead of Guendouzi, and it’s not like it was a crazy idea. It’s just that almost anyone else would have said, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
But not Unai Emery, who seemingly loves to chop and change more than my 6 year old daughter playing with her squishies and Shopkins. (Don’t ask.)
Lots of media coverage has focused on Emery the tactical coach, or lately, Emery the failed motivator. On and on, we focus on his rebuild or his vision.
But during the last month, lots of ink was also spilled about the departure of Sven Mislintat, and the nasty power struggle that ended with his shanking out back behind the basketball court.
Surely, to the outside observer, it looks like Arsenal are in turmoil, as there is no firm system in place to replace the “Arsene decides” battle plan that was wheat-pasted up in the board room for the last 22 years.
The truth of the matter is, if you want to understand where we stand in the Premier League right now, you have to look to the Boston Red Sox.
Really, the Red Sox have all the answers.
I’ve noticed lately that Pete has begun to make comparisons to the American sports leagues, but normally he’s cutting and pasting from other articles.
I can tell you right off the top of my head what you need to know.
For a hundred years, the Red Sox were laughing stocks. They were a joke, as they suffered under the curse of Babe Ruth. Having sold the famed ballplayer to the Yankees, their rival, they watched the Yanks win all sorts of things, while their trophy cabinet collected dust like my daughter collects little plastic toys. (She’s got enough to choke a blue whale.)
Always, the Sox were chokers.
They couldn’t win.
But then, a hedge-fund type with partners rolling in Cosby-show-money bought the team, and they became very early adopters of the now-ubiquitous use of analytics.
Yes, that’s right.
Numbers.
Around the time Billy Beane was getting famous for Moneyball, the Sox ownership group, (Henry, Werner et al) went out and hired the man who invented the field, Bill James.
Apparently, he was the numbers geek of all geeks, as he sent out his own photocopied zine that made waves around the sports industry, back in the day.
They hired Bill James, and all of a sudden, began coveting players who drew walks, and got on base a lot. They went after fat guys, (like Kevin Youkilis,) and at first, there was little competition for the players they wanted.
And unlike the Oakland A’s, whose penny-pinching drove them to look for undervalued assets, the Red Sox were a big market team in a sports-crazed city, and they matched their numbers-crunching with some serious investments.
You might not have heard of Big Papi, or Jonny Damon, but the Red Sox players of the early century became Boston legends when they came from 3-0 down in the American League Championship, against the dreaded Yankees, and beat them, going on to win their first World Series in nearly a century.
But that wasn’t the end.
Continuing to invest and innovate, and leaning on their back-room nerds, the Red Sox have now won 3 more World Series.
(Making 4 championships this century for a club that went forever without winning.)
Even better, another of their hero-number-crunchers, Theo Epstein, went to the Chicago Cubs, an equally big loser, and after installing the same operating system, he won a World Series there as well.
So that’s 5 Championships for the analytics team put together by the (gulp) Liverpool owners.
It’s been enough years that I don’t remember when I saw it, but at some point after they bought Liverpool, I read an article about how the owners were investing in football analytics, and expected to be ahead of the curve, as the “right” numbers were not completely understood at the management level across global football.
So here we are, in 2019, and it’s all worked out for them.
Klopp is great, don’t get me wrong, but really, their success has come from finding the right players, mostly for affordable prices, and then making good decisions.
Yes, Van Dijk and Alison were super-expensive, but only because Liverpool got to the point where they were minting enough high-level assets to afford them.
Just think: Mané, Salah, Firmino, Coutinho, Winjaldum… Arsenal could have bought any of them.
(Mané was playing in the Premier League, for heaven’s sake, and had already roasted Arsenal at Southampton.)
But Arsenal, perhaps using the wrong type of analytic analysis, bought Xhaka, Mustafi, and some old guys.
And here we are, in 2019, with a team in need of a massive defensive rebuild, and seemingly requiring player sales of improved assets of fuel the new purchases.
Because unlike the Liverpool ownership group, Stan Kroenke is famous for not wanting to put one of his own dollars into running the club.
So where does that leave us?
Most of you guys probably read this blog each day, and know that Pete has taken on this subject rather often, whether we’ll be a development/analytics club going forward, or a “let me pull out my Rolodex” kind of club, with Raul running the show.
At this point, unlike the last few years, the Kroenkes are finally experiencing genuine success in LA and Denver. (The Washington Post even did a cover story on Stan’s big stadium play in Inglewood.)
The mustache-dude is not averse to spending money in all cases, apparently. And now, he’s getting some serious visuals on how brand-building and winning turn into hard currency.
So that’s where we are now.
I’m hoping that Arsenal will see the writing on the wall, invest in scouting and asset building, and buckle down to work our way back up into the Top 4, and then hopefully into genuine contention by the time Klopp and Pep leave in 2-4 seasons.
There is a blue print out there for us, if we follow it.
Unfortunately, given the resurgence of Man U, and the unlimited funds available at City, plus Abramovich’s addiction to winning, the future does not look rosy.
Not yet.
Not now, at the end of January, 2019.
But, as usual, we’ll know more in May.
Remember, follow him @jblauphoto
Sarri out, Lampard in.
Ooof, fucking hell. Just seen those scores. What a week so far.
You guys are right, Sarri, Allegri and Poch are all useless. Good observations.
Sala trying hard to win a pen
And there it is !
Dreadful result for Chelsea here.
Azed Allegri was battered against Lazio over the weekend but somehow ended up winning
Football isn’t the computer games many on here will have us believe.
Every manager deserves patience to do the job he was hired to do, not hound him and call him bland every single day simply because you didn’t approve of his hire. Basically putting your needs and feelings before the club
Win a pen or deceive the ref to be awarded one?
@batistuta … agree again. In my opinion once we get the right guy in behind the scene, with clear strategy we can have more expectations from the coach. I am big fen of dortmund’s system. But also I can’t see many english clubs have internal strategies. More like it depends of who the coach is and they synchronize the system accordingly. Bit odd if you ask me.
Emery is doing just fine. Looks like all teams above us are dropping points!
Receding
I wonder how many on here remember or are aware of Fergie’s ManU getting spanked 6 – 3 by Southampton back in the day.
Football isn’t computer games?
Oh fuck off Scum
Marc
The week before Newcastle smashed them 5-0 too.
Heard Chavs got dicked…goood as did Juve
Fuck spuds, I jinxed it!
Its is for Mr. Ozil
Don’t have much time for Tottenham but I love Spurs
Fantastic bit of business by them and he didnt cost the world
Chris
Was that the week before? Remember the result but not the sequence.
Watford are fucking shit and all kmt
Sack Klopp
Sack Guardiola
Sack Sarri
Sack OGS
Sack Poch
Knighthood for Emery !
Takes the gloss off what would be a great week for Arsenal results wise in the Prem, this and Utd rescuing points yesterday
Re-instate Poch !
Marc
Pretty sure. Then they lost at home to Chelsea the week after the Saints loss of memory serves. Even Fergie teams lost 3 in a row.
Fuuuck
Poch is a god again.
Pedro
Yeah but a god who’s looking for a way out to another club!
Watford aren’t the most reliable of teams. They are not really playing for anything are they? Their season is now on cruise control…pick up a few home wins here and there.
i hate spurs and son
I hate them
I prefer the club to has identity , not to wait some coach to bring it. Arsenal doesnt even know what they are, but we expect the coach to knows. Are we a rich club or poor? Are we in debts or on profit? Are we buying superstars or make them?
Marc, hopefully OGS tanks United and he takes over them as the crash out of the top 4.
Pedro
Better for him to go to Madrid surely. He’ll get ManU more competitive.
After the celebrations from pool fans last night would be embarrassing if all they add is a point
Have to say it is a little remarkable that Spurs haven’t drawn one game yet this season in the league. That ever happened before at this stage?
Not impressed with Chelsea or Sarri.
‘Special sauce’ manager who inherited a side that were champions the season before last, has added a £70 Million keeper, a £50 Million central midfield player and a world class ST and they still look average.
We can very much land 4th.
Quite clear who is having the better first season out of Emery and Sarri when you apply context and remove agenda.
Cesc
We just all need to pray to the Football God’s!
Bd
“If they’re good enough they’re good enough and their nationality is irrelevant”
All fine words.
But u criticise me -but you CONDONE
Emery and Raul who have not signed a British player or a British coach – but have let our British players (3) out on loan and want nothing to do with chambers and Ramsey.
If anyone has inherent fear of foreigners – I would say these 2 Spaniards do of British FOOTBALLING talent..!
I said on here at the start of the season, I was surprised at Chelsea appointing Sarri,
What exactly has he achieved ?
I agree cesc appeal Chelsea are there for the taking just need pool to draw I can’t take bin dippers winning the title
CG
Chambers was put out on loan at an English club – weren’t you saying that’s the way to go earlier?
Marc, not really sure about him going to Madrid…? But then again… I’m not sure who the galactico managers are that they could hire?
What’s Klopp’s excuse
At least other teams played last weekend.
Cesc
The biggest problem Chelsea have is Hazard. If the season starts to go pear shaped and he’s decided to move in the summer he could switch off. Would be really damaging to them.
So The Scum are still 7 points ahead of us. I’d be surprised if they lose 3 more this season.
14 to go……
Spuds are so undeservingly jammy. Ugggh.
I still have favour City, Liverpool had a glorious opportunity today and you just knew they’d drop points.
Was that Klopp with a Bott?
Pedro
Madrid need to have a major clear out, I expect them to spend a fortune in the summer. They might think the Poch might encourage Kane to move as well.
I told you spurs are jammy.
Charlie GeorgeJanuary 30, 2019 21:28:58
All those foreign coaches , have never really comes to terms with our uniquely difficult league.(What a manger Eddie Howe is.)
___
Mourinho won back to back titles in his first two seasons. Ancelotti won in his first year, Pellegrini won in his first year, Conte won in his first year, Manicni has won, Ranieri has won. Heck even that specialist in failure Wenger won three league titles.
What the fuck are you on about?
Stupid Watford, seems spurs won’t be coming down as anticipated. Lady luck is obviously with them
Marc
Chambers played well back end of the season as centre back
Paired well with the Greek boy..
Why he was jettisoned so quick. ?
I have not the foggiest..
(Good goal last night from him)
Reading the comments on here about us not wanting to spend any money.Some good theories, but has anyone thought that because of Financial Fair Play, we simply are just no allowed? Last year was a bad one. Finishing 6th and no champions league. Lacazette came in for 50 odd mil. We signed Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan, both on nearly 200 grand a week. New Ozil contract would have hit us. Taking all that into consideration, we flogged Szczeney, Gabriel, Coquelin, Walcott and Giroud for peanuts. Ox we got good money for.This season we spent £70m, without really getting any significant money… Read more »
CG
No idea but you can’t criticise from different view points constantly.
Thomas
They were all expect Ranieri brilliant achievement at clubs with unlimited resources.
City/Chelsea
Klopp/Ranieri/poch/ Wenger have broken the mould
Can’t think of too many others at normally resourced clubs..??
Spurs are annoyingly lucky.
Martinez Wigan
Marc, it’ll be interesting to see what the Madrid strategy is this summer. They’re missing that Ronaldo edge and it’s hard to see where they can buy that around Europe?
Are there any obvious heirs to the mega stars in the game right now?
Obviously ESR is going to the bundesliga. Not mad at all. Eish he turns out Sancho.
Mhik
Could well be right – we’ve definitely been restricted with wages.
Pedro
They’ll need to spread to goals around but Hazard, maybe Kane or one of the Liverpool strikers plus a few others will get the fans back in line.
@pedro .. only Mbappe is coming to mind and coutihno(fall down in Barcelona, they started destroying footballers)
Marc
It is so fundamental to get success
Barca/bayern/Juve etc have an identity
They just don’t make it up as they go along..
Like we are..
4 hours ago- no one knew 2 of our youngsters were going to Germany..
WE NEED THEM FOR THAT EUROPA.
They should be training with the 1st team every day- learning what it’s like to be an ARSENAL player.
CG
So who are these mythical British managers who were winning the league on a shoestring in the PL age?
Madrid missed the chance to offload Bale for big money when Mourinho was buying up all the big names he can find at United
The Madrid fans are sick of him.
@CC , dont think that they will learn much from Iwobi and Mkhyt
CG
As someone else pointed out earlier having gone out of the domestic cups the senior squad will be used in the EL. If it means the players come back in the summer ready to challenge for the first team then what’s the problem?
Spuds next 2 pl games are at home..
Don’t expect they drop any points there..
How come they get 3 home games in a row?
It’s really annoying that we were so brittle against West Ham and we dropped 3 points there… had we won there, we would have actually had a very good January (despite the loss to Man United in the FA Cup) .
I hope we are positive against Man City. We need to play them like we played Chelsea.
Pedro,
Hazard will go to Madrid this summer for around £80m I reckon.
Meanwhile, Roma lost 7/1 at Fiorentina
I like Hazard but he hasnt been that constant force and goalscorer, Cristiano was and still is. Dont think Real will be satisfied just with Hazard
G8
The PL moved their fixtures around at the start if the season so they could be in their new stadium for mid September. It’s means they’ve got an imbalance of home fixtures now.
Bamford
I think the pillow case on your head and the burning cross had something to do with it.
And we are now in the top four. Good work, Unai Emery. 😉
If Leicester rejected a £65m for Maguire last season then that puts him out of our price range unfortunately.
I can see him at Utd, or heaven forbid Liverpool paid him up with VVD.
Lascelles the more realistic option then. Hopefully Holding recovers from his injury and we get Chambers back from Fulham full of regular 1st team confidence and experience.
* pair him up, not fucking paid!
I’d LOVE to see Kane go there.
Imagine him learning Spanish. What a mess.
I’d LOVE to see Kane go there.Imagine him learning Spanish. What a mess.
ha haha…just imagined him trying to speak Spanish then…
CG
Stop spouting your British agenda rubbish. It has nothing to do with nationality. More a fact of that in general the pool of British/homegrown players are technically inferior to the pool of continental/South American players and also charge a premium for some unknown reason. This has been shown up time and time again World Cups & Euros. Even the current English crop don’t have a proper baller in CM or no 10… Jordan Henderson & Eric Dier. Bitch pleassse…
If Poch goes to Utd I reckon Kane would be his first signing.
Pedro
I think he needs to learn English first. He is on the other hand fluent in mong.
Benny
Tongue was firmly in cheek with the Syrian march remark. Winding you up a bit there.
Marc
“Could well be right – we’ve definitely been restricted with wages.”
As much as I love Ozil, his wages killed us.
Told you we’d finish above Chelsea this season. I think we could finish 3rd
Our squad is that good.
Just listen to uncle un na in future
Un nai,
Fair enough, good on you for saying so. Thanks.
Pedro Kane can’t even speak English properly he would never be able to learn Spanish
I’d LOVE to see Kane go there.Imagine him learning Spanish. What a mess.
Pedro
Bamford saidnit would never happen. I’d love that too. Plus we might get st totteringhams day again.
“Imagine him learning Spanish. What a mess.”
Imagine him trying to learning anything more like. Fair dues though, the boy at least knows where the goal is.
Spurs imploding out of the cups like I said they would. Mark my words, they will end the season empty handed. 😉
I can give it out with bells on so it’s only fair I take some back.
i hate spurs
Paddy
Maybe in the past your observations were true to some extent.
I am talking now
German clubs are buying British talent( now)like it’s going out of fashion.
This is not a trickle, either…
I was a massive Islamaphobe until I met my Syrian friends, they’re a great people.
Just had a mental image of Kane watching Fawlty Towers and being completely confused by Manuel going “que”.
It appears Liverpool have saved me for this evening.
As you were.
Un, you have called it correctly it would seem.
Sal
Because we were all really worried about you. Not as if you actually know any real Scousers!
CG
How many players have German clubs actually bought?
I think CG is right, I think we have a seriously talented young generation of British talent coming through that we should be all over especially as we don’t have the money of City, Chelsea or Utd.
Liverpool got Robertson from Hull, Sterling from QPR.
Wolves, Leicester, Villa have some great young British talent, Leeds and the lower tiered Northern clubs too.
What are we doing to tap into that?
Are we scouting the lower tiered English clubs? If not, why not?
Marc
As Pedro will attest, my best mate in NYC is scouse and comes in studs up
The worst team in the top 6 but we’re above Chelsea and United, we need to keep that going and another arrival tomorrow along with Suarez would go someway to helping us.
I think Chelsea will continue to struggle and United have a tough time coming up. Great chance to get UCL football and have the money and prestige to undo the mess of the last 6 years.