What can Arsenal learn from the Red Sox?

by .

Enjoy the monthly column from Jonathan. Make sure to follow him @jblauphoto 

It’s Monday, January 28th, (as I write this,) and Arsenal are the 6th best football club in England.

(I don’t want to hear that we’re still ahead of United on goal different. Shut your mouth.)

It’s a cold, sunny Monday here in the Rocky Mountains, and I’m trying to synopsize the last month for you, since I wrote my “what the fuck is Emery thinking?” column at the end of the year.

At this point, 8 months into his reign, I’d say that the jury is still out on Unai Emery, but doubts are beginning to creep into the global fan base.

(Will he ever stick with one line-up? Or formation? Does he have a grand plan?)

Personally, I was pretty surprised he didn’t run out the same lineup for the United FA Cup match that crushed Chelsea earlier in the week.

Surely, outside of changing the goal-keeper, I thought he would have to play the same team, given how well they handled Chelsea.

Three DM’s supporting 2 (finally) capable CBs, with Ramsey feeding Lacazette and Aubameyang.

I was sure he’d go back to the well.

But, of course, I was wrong.

You can understand why he put Iwobi into the team ahead of Guendouzi, and it’s not like it was a crazy idea. It’s just that almost anyone else would have said, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

But not Unai Emery, who seemingly loves to chop and change more than my 6 year old daughter playing with her squishies and Shopkins. (Don’t ask.)

Lots of media coverage has focused on Emery the tactical coach, or lately, Emery the failed motivator. On and on, we focus on his rebuild or his vision.

But during the last month, lots of ink was also spilled about the departure of Sven Mislintat, and the nasty power struggle that ended with his shanking out back behind the basketball court.

Surely, to the outside observer, it looks like Arsenal are in turmoil, as there is no firm system in place to replace the “Arsene decides” battle plan that was wheat-pasted up in the board room for the last 22 years.

The truth of the matter is, if you want to understand where we stand in the Premier League right now, you have to look to the Boston Red Sox.

Really, the Red Sox have all the answers.

I’ve noticed lately that Pete has begun to make comparisons to the American sports leagues, but normally he’s cutting and pasting from other articles.

I can tell you right off the top of my head what you need to know.

For a hundred years, the Red Sox were laughing stocks. They were a joke, as they suffered under the curse of Babe Ruth. Having sold the famed ballplayer to the Yankees, their rival, they watched the Yanks win all sorts of things, while their trophy cabinet collected dust like my daughter collects little plastic toys. (She’s got enough to choke a blue whale.)

Always, the Sox were chokers.

They couldn’t win.

But then, a hedge-fund type with partners rolling in Cosby-show-money bought the team, and they became very early adopters of the now-ubiquitous use of analytics.

Yes, that’s right.

Numbers.

Around the time Billy Beane was getting famous for Moneyball, the Sox ownership group, (Henry, Werner et al) went out and hired the man who invented the field, Bill James.

Apparently, he was the numbers geek of all geeks, as he sent out his own photocopied zine that made waves around the sports industry, back in the day.

They hired Bill James, and all of a sudden, began coveting players who drew walks, and got on base a lot. They went after fat guys, (like Kevin Youkilis,) and at first, there was little competition for the players they wanted.

And unlike the Oakland A’s, whose penny-pinching drove them to look for undervalued assets, the Red Sox were a big market team in a sports-crazed city, and they matched their numbers-crunching with some serious investments.

You might not have heard of Big Papi, or Jonny Damon, but the Red Sox players of the early century became Boston legends when they came from 3-0 down in the American League Championship, against the dreaded Yankees, and beat them, going on to win their first World Series in nearly a century.

But that wasn’t the end.

Continuing to invest and innovate, and leaning on their back-room nerds, the Red Sox have now won 3 more World Series.

(Making 4 championships this century for a club that went forever without winning.)

Even better, another of their hero-number-crunchers, Theo Epstein, went to the Chicago Cubs, an equally big loser, and after installing the same operating system, he won a World Series there as well.

So that’s 5 Championships for the analytics team put together by the (gulp) Liverpool owners.

It’s been enough years that I don’t remember when I saw it, but at some point after they bought Liverpool, I read an article about how the owners were investing in football analytics, and expected to be ahead of the curve, as the “right” numbers were not completely understood at the management level across global football.

So here we are, in 2019, and it’s all worked out for them.

Klopp is great, don’t get me wrong, but really, their success has come from finding the right players, mostly for affordable prices, and then making good decisions.

Yes, Van Dijk and Alison were super-expensive, but only because Liverpool got to the point where they were minting enough high-level assets to afford them.

Just think: Mané, Salah, Firmino, Coutinho, Winjaldum… Arsenal could have bought any of them.

(Mané was playing in the Premier League, for heaven’s sake, and had already roasted Arsenal at Southampton.)

But Arsenal, perhaps using the wrong type of analytic analysis, bought Xhaka, Mustafi, and some old guys.

And here we are, in 2019, with a team in need of a massive defensive rebuild, and seemingly requiring player sales of improved assets of fuel the new purchases.

Because unlike the Liverpool ownership group, Stan Kroenke is famous for not wanting to put one of his own dollars into running the club.

So where does that leave us?

Most of you guys probably read this blog each day, and know that Pete has taken on this subject rather often, whether we’ll be a development/analytics club going forward, or a “let me pull out my Rolodex” kind of club, with Raul running the show.

At this point, unlike the last few years, the Kroenkes are finally experiencing genuine success in LA and Denver. (The Washington Post even did a cover story on Stan’s big stadium play in Inglewood.)

The mustache-dude is not averse to spending money in all cases, apparently. And now, he’s getting some serious visuals on how brand-building and winning turn into hard currency.

So that’s where we are now.

I’m hoping that Arsenal will see the writing on the wall, invest in scouting and asset building, and buckle down to work our way back up into the Top 4, and then hopefully into genuine contention by the time Klopp and Pep leave in 2-4 seasons.

There is a blue print out there for us, if we follow it.

Unfortunately, given the resurgence of Man U, and the unlimited funds available at City, plus Abramovich’s addiction to winning, the future does not look rosy.

Not yet.

Not now, at the end of January, 2019.

But, as usual, we’ll know more in May.

Remember, follow him @jblauphoto 

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Guns of SF

Im not sure what Nkukunu brings besides being young and a good dribbler. Seems a little small as well.
I think I would rather have the pure winger we have been needing for a while.
I would take Carrasco.
Younger than Perisic- maybe cheaper too.
Am guessing can speak French and Spanish so that is a plus too.

He is listed at 5’11 but seems a lot taller than that- maybe just the lanky frame

MGooner

Dude, we do not need a Yankee blue print for Top 4, we’ve had one for 20 years and can lecture most teams on that.

Currently the fans cough up and the owner gets all the benefits. This is a very unfair situation. With the current SS model, the owners should be the fans.

bennydevito

True gambon, but Liverpool bought clever and sold clever whereas we have bought terribly and sold negligably.

What are we left with now that we can sell like Liverpool did with Coutinho for £140m, Sterling for £50m and Suarez for £65m?

We’re fucked on that front, we don’t have an owner investing huge amounts ala City and Chelsea and our revenues are behind Utd and Liverpool.

It’s pretty grim in my opinion.

Dissenter

Carrasco just looks like a Nacer Chadli type level of winger
I agree that the history of working with Simeone means that he won’t shirk from hard work.

Pierre

“Weve spent £200m in the last 2 years.”

net spend £45

Guns of SF

Simeone doesnt take any lazy players.
So, yes, Carrasco would be the one…
But makes you wonder why he left for China in his sporting prime

salpardisenyc

Nkunku,

Faster than Bellerin, can dribble thru puts Iwobi on bench. Its a long play though kid needs polish.

Carrasco ended up in China at the age of 24 for a reason.

DaleDaGooner

Marc,

Good shout regarding Smith-Rowe, really wanted to see more of him.

Bamford, you’re dumb….end of.

bennydevito

Charlie George: bennydevitoJanuary 30, 2019    15:02:05 CG, Your observations regarding a lack of pace,power and penetration are spot on so don’t you think we should see who comes in over the next 2 years before making judgements? Don’t you also think that the financial restrictions in place are greatly limiting Emery’s scope for bringing in the types of flair players we need? What I would do for a Pires, an Overmars and an Anelka right now but we simply don’t have the money to buy in players such as Neymar, Mbappe or Draxler who Emery signed at PSG when he… Read more »

Marko

And as for “its going to take time” – well as I showed, you can completely turn over a squad in 2 years So two years… alright then you said it two years. Also comparing Klopp and Emery’s situation is silly. He could sell Coutinho for over 100 million the only way Emery does something like that is Auba and Lacazette or Mustafi, Xhaka and someone else. He was very lucky he was able to get 57 million from Palace for Benteke and Sahko. I know we were able to get whatever for Walcott and Chamberlain but now right now… Read more »

DaleDaGooner

I am not sure if Bamford wants to really get into the racist rubbish, I mean tell me you’re not that dumb at least.

englandsbest

Kroenke has experienced sporting success before, an occasional blip here and there. Zero effect on his bottom-line policy. And an almost zero chance that it will change his policy now.

Number-crunching is not a silver bullet. A useful tool, but nothing more. It may help, but it won’t solve, Arsenal’s problems.

Instead, we should take note of what Emery is trying to do.

Marko

anyone have a choice between Carasco and Nkunku?
Argue your point

Carrasco. You see our limp dick attack and realize we need as much pace and trickery as we can get. Wouldn’t mind Nkunku but Suarez and Carrasco bench Ozil and Iwobi so let’s go

Guns of SF

welcome Denis

Marko

Kroenke has experienced sporting success before

With who? Arsenal?

Guns of SF

Suarez most likely play in the middle.
Lets hope we grab Carrasco-
IF we cannot strengthen in Defense this winter lets add more fire power…
Besides, our full backs can actually stay back a lot more

Leftsidesanch

Hopefully this works out well for us.

Lets hope we can fend off AC Milan for Carrasco too.

gambon

Marko

Why are we still talking about Coutinho.

Liverpool got back into the CL before they sold Coutinho.

In fact they got back into the CL, with a net spend of £0.

Why dont we focus on doing that first, then we can worry about how we find the money to make PL winning signings like Van Dijk and Alisson.

Graham62

Dissenter Actually, Kroenke’s problem is that he doesn’t give a toss( know a thing) about the Footballing side of things. Consequently, he turned a blind eye to all the crap dished out by Wenger(and Gazidis) over the past few years. Another huge problem with our Stan is that he is not the most proactive when it comes to communicating. Infact, he doesn’t say a bloody thing. Does he actually talk? No one really knows. Fudge, a constructive sentence here and there wouldn’t go a miss. It’s not as if he’s from Azerbaijan for christs sake. Being American has absolutely nothing… Read more »

Marko

AFC are already in advanced talks with Carrasco’s club and reps over a deal & are confident of getting their man despite late interest from Milan [via
@johncrossmirror
]

I personally would also like to see us start some of our deals for the summer now. Bayern have Pavard lined up for the summer Barca have De Jong and West Ham have Maxi Gomez. Liverpool had Keita lined up 6 months before they got him. I would love to have something big lined up for the summer that sets the tone for us next summer. Make Pepe happen alright

Guns of SF

Marko

I agree
Lets start the tapping up now…
Ill take any Lyon midfielder – any of them, Sevilla too
We get youth and massive skills

Marko

Apparently PSG have had a loan offer turned down by the player. Amazingly he’s happy with barely playing and getting paid for it

MGooner

@ Gambon, Comparing Pool’s spending to ours since Klopp is nice. For completeness you may wish to add other data such as the size of the balance sheets of both clubs at the time. Actually, it;s even better to take that over a longer period so you can identify trends and iron out significant deviations. But what I like most about our fanbase is how we promptly asked for a new gaffer as we knew that the SS model money was not enough to make us win the PL. Year in year out we witnessed a boring top 4 finish… Read more »

Marko

Sorry meant to say it’s for Ozil

Dissenter

Can you all remember those days when all we got from Wenger was that stupidest smog smirk when it came to transfers.
Imagine if we had been wheeling and dealing this way in the past 10 seasons.

We have obvious needs…the clubs goes out and squeezes out possible solutions

Dissenter

The Carrasco one appears to be an outright transfer, not a loan.

TR7

Apparently PSG wanted Ozil on 6 month loan but the player rejected the offer.

Charlie George

Can’t really compare Klopp v Emery
But if one did:

Klopp the bundelsliga twice champion with underdogs Dortmund.

Champions league runner up ×2
Klopp is the inspirational motivator supreme.
The man Has stature and has oodles of charisma

Players want to play for him..

Emery is a damp squib in comparison.

Aside from his so called claim to fame – winning 3 Europa titles .!!
A tournament , designed for the also rans of football.

The term – chalk and cheese springs to mind..

Receding Hairline

Why would PSG want Ozil??

What exactly is the method to their madness

Receding Hairline

Get French Football News

@GFFN
2h2 hours ago
More
Inter Milan have pulled out of the race for Yannick Ferreira Carrasco; Arsenal made a formal offer yesterday, but negotiations are difficult owing in part to a language barrier with Dalian Yifang President Shi Xueqing, according to RMC

No one speaks English at Lifang??

Un na naai

Benny

Shut your pie hole ya little anus licker.

Guns of SF

Ozil to PSG- he is a fucking idiot to pass that up if its true.
CL football and with some of the best players in the world
Must have something to do with his wages. although PSG have the $$4

What a fucking moron

Charlie George

“”No one speaks English at Lifang??””

Not many speak it at London Colney, these days!

Guns of SF

Dissenter

How can we afford Carasco if we have no money. I think this deal gets washed.
Otherwise the info is incorrect.
The whole language barrier thing is hilarious
In this day and age we cannot work around that? lol

Marko

I like the idea that inter rang them up speaking in Italian completely forgetting to get a translator

Guns of SF

CG

Why are you so enthocentric

Receding Hairline

Not many speak it at London Colney, these days!

Good one

MGooner

@ Receding Hairline

With such an important fanbase in Asia and China, it is surprising that Arsenal did not even care to have someone on their payroll who can speak Chinese.

Jim Lahey

“Not many speak it at London Colney, these days!”

Good

azed

“No one speaks English at Lifang??”

There are groovers who are based in China that can negotiate on behalf of the Arsenal.

Leftsidesanch

That Ozil to PSG story is likely clickbait.

azed

GSF

Ozil is semi retired.

Going to PSG means he cannot hide behind Emery when he fails to dominate the small French sides away from home.

Marko

He’s such a horrible player. Why would you pass up the opportunity to play for PSG to actually play football to stay at a club that doesn’t want you for a manager that doesn’t want you and with players who think you’re a twat. Mind boggling

salpardisenyc

Rumor makes sense w/ Neymar out for couple months

Dissenter

We could have asked “China1” to step in to translate.
Wasted opportunity

gambon

Some rumours that Carrasco would rather go to Milan

If so, shows we’ve dodged a bullet.

Anyone that goes to China at 24, then back to Milan, is a trash player.

He’ll be playing in the Middle East within 2 years.

azed

Gambon

We could have used for 6 months though. At least against the bottom clubs he would be useful.

Freddie Ljungberg

So Ozil doesn’t want to leave on loan, imagine it’s an ego thing. Fine, sell him cheaply or even better do a swap deal, they have plenty of players that would improve us and they have Rabiot that’s training with the u23s and they want rid of asap, let’s make it happen.

Marko

Hey if he wants to go to AC fucking Milan good riddance. Trash club

salpardisenyc

Love it Gazidis saving us whilst thinking he’s pulling a blinder.

Leftsidesanch

Rumours that Suarez has failed his medical. The article has been taken off the website.

Marko

Ozil for Rabiot? Christ we’d swap him for Nkunku

Leftsidesanch

Unless Barca pressed go on the news too soon and got an earful from Arsenal.

Receding Hairline

Rumours that Suarez has failed his medical. The article has been taken off the website.

Where did u hear that?? Barca said they posted they posted the news due to a technical glitch, it wasn’t meant to go live now

Marko

Seems to be that instead of a failed medical

salpardisenyc

Im sure dudes at Arsenal wanted to release it and asked for them to pull until those super camp welcome pics are released

Freddie Ljungberg

Marko

I would take that as well to be honest. Rabiot would suit both clubs though.

Feel PSG is the only top club in europe that would take him on his wages so I hope there’s something in this, he would be an idiot to refuse.

Cesc Appeal

It looked like he was waving last night, we all have to hope he is going.

Guns of SF

WTF

lots of drama in the last few mins.
Fuck Ozil- that is a dream move for him. Paris !

Now Suarez failed a medical?

WTF is going on

Marko

he would be an idiot to refuse.

That or a mercenary who’s really not that concerned with playing football. Took him until 30 before he gave up. And it’s not because of injuries or nothing. Just pathetic stuff really

Guns of SF

CA

did you mean wavering?

Receding Hairline

Now Suarez failed a medical?

NO

Leftsidesanch

The glitch explanation sounds more plausible.

As for Ozil, he’s here until the Summer.

Guns of SF

That was OZIL’s big fuck you to Emery and the fans

Cesc Appeal

The real dick kick is that the £17 Million we waste yearly on that pussy is the same amount we have to pay Wenger and his cronies just for sacking them.

If there is an offer from PSG then Sanllehi or someone needs to make it very clear to Ozil that he will not be played, he will train and play with the U23s and he is not wanted.

The problem though is he’s such a pussy I don’t know he’d see that as a threat or a welcome fortune.

Guns of SF

Ozil has a great life. He makes $$ and only plays weak teams in home games only
His dream gets better and better

Even playing with the best in the world isnt up to his sweet deal.

might as well call him King Ozil

salpardisenyc

Ozil didn’t force Raul, Sven and Ivan to offer that deal.

Guns of SF

Sal
His agent did that with Ozil being fine with that.
with Alexis gone, it was $$$ for Ozil and his agent knew it. He held our club by the balls and got his payday.

Now, if he played like the money he makes, would be another situation. He has declined even more

Got to fatt for his own good

Freddie Ljungberg

Emile Smith-Rowe going to RB Leipzig on loan for the rest of the season, good for him, get some needed experience and then get back and replace one of the older overpaid players in the summer.

Un na naai

I fucking cannot stand Mesut Ozil

Cesc Appeal

Nketiah and Smith Rowe going out on loan.

Great work from the club. They need to grow up, they need minutes, they need responsibility.

Guns of SF

why does Ozil want to stay when he gets his fat check, and a chance to play top level, CL, with better players in a shit league and bring his GF to Paris?

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!>>>>>???

Marko

Smith Rowe to Leipzig? Great move providing more than Suarez joins

Marko

I saw that 17 million to get rid of Wenger and his staff. He was on 10 million a season are we to assume that all those shit coaches were on 7 million? My god that seems a lot for a rubbish coach

Un na naai

An evening with TONY ADAMS tomorrow night at the Clapham grand if anyone is interested. It’s for a charity and a sick girl who’s the daughter of a very good friend of mine
You get to meet Tony Adams. Get autographs and photos. Ask him questions. I’ll be there if anyone fancies meeting the real Un Na Na and punching me? Haha.

Pierre

Apparently ,as the know nothing’s on here say, Arsenal offered Ozil 350 grand a week despite the fact that no other club wanted to buy him . If ,and it’s a bit if , what the know nothing’s say is true , then that is the most stupid piece of business any football club has made in history. Let’s look at the scenario ….We have all the top dogs at Arsenal sitting in the boardroom at the Emirates and the question of Ozil’s new contract comes up . Kronke asks ivan or raul, which clubs are in for Ozil …they… Read more »

Un na naai

Guns of SF

He wants his fat cheque whilst sitting in his mansion playing computer games

Un na naai

Benny

💋 mwah darling

bennydevito

Un nai,

Shame you didn’t mention that earlier, I would have made efforts to come over from Bristol.

Great worthy event, fair play, good on Mr Arsenal for making himself available and I hope it’s well attended.

Guns of SF

Pierre

Give up please… pleeeaseeeee

salpardisenyc

SF

I don’t buy that club culpable regarding Ozil.

They had a choice but lacked a plan, same w Sanchez and Ramsay. In the end all shambolic deals in terms of clubs best interests. Now were sniffing for loans in January.

Don’t tell me Sogut’s fine agenting put Raul and Gaz in tight place, they bottled it without doing due diligence on player and offered the unthinkable contract and now have to find a way out.

No graceful exit unless Ozil starts balling.

Un na naai

Benny

I didn’t know until this morning. He’s doing another with Ian Wright soon though so I’ll keep you posted
Did the Paul Merson one last year. Good laugh it was. I got pissed and was hanging off him telling him how much I loved him when I was a kid. Haha. Don’t remember much about it but judging by his face from the photos he looked like he wanted me anywhere but near him

azed

“I’ll be there if anyone fancies meeting the real Un Na Na and punching me”

I’d split the cost of the ticket with anyone who wants to go and punch Un in the face.

Would make a lot of groovers happy.

What ya say Marko?

Guns of SF

Ozil will never start balling. His best days are gone.
Its a decline from here on

Ozil to PSG- what a lifeline for him and us!

this is just fucking irritating

Un na naai

Azed

I didn’t say it’s a free punch.

azed

“I didn’t say it’s a free punch.”

Can’t take one for the team Un?

Un na naai

Azed.

Yes alright then. Free punches all round. As long as I get to respond with a kick in the nuts.
In all seriousness though if anyone wants to set Tony and ask him a question then please attend as the proceeds help towards a sick child’s treatment.

Un na naai

I’m reading that Suarez did pass his medical and the deal is done.

Samesong

Done deal

karim

We finally got Suarez !
Liverpool fans must be dying with laughter… Think I would …

Nah that’s a good signing, hope the boy delivers and we’re getting him for good.
Would love a couple of other deals, but I’m not dreaming, we are the famous Arsenal, after all.

Hi gents !

Charlie George

“”Nketiah and Smith Rowe going out on loan.Great work from the club. They need to grow up, they need minutes, they need responsibility.:

Is it really great work from the club??? to send our young prospects away?
Are you thinking straight?

Surely- sending them to a championship side – would be a better fit?
A very risky strategy this- they might like there stay there?

And they might want to stay there? Their talents might be appreciated more in the Bundesliga.

G8

CG, Are you for real or just trolling?

Marko

I’ll be there if anyone fancies meeting the real Un Na Na and punching me?

That is actually a good one

DaleDaGooner

No doubt the lack of officially announcing the Denis Suarez deal came from Arsenal…..same shit! Why do we enjoy delaying deals or the announcement???

DaleDaGooner

The Club is a joke! Barcelona announces the deal, but we aren’t….what are they waiting till 11.59pm tomorrow to announce it?

salpardisenyc

DDG

Waiting for the Arse PR camp photos to hit web.

Karim

Ahoy mate, any of those Ozil to PSG rumors in France?

DaleDaGooner

sal….ah, didn’t think of the fancy photo shoot….he’s a loan player, no? oh well. I wonder who the second signing will be..Perisic, .Nkuku or Carrassco, not sure which one would excite more.

karim

Hey Sal !

Same rumours here, I’m afraid. Looks like he really refused it, unreal stuff.
An Ozil / Rabiot swap deal for instance would have had people dancing naked all around the Emirates !

Charlie George

G8
“CG, Are you for real or just trolling?”
100% real

its a stupendously risky policy for GOOD young players to go to clubs who have the potential to sign them.
eg leipzig.

send them to championship sides,-they do not have the wherewithal to sign them.

What happens for instance now with Reiss Nelson?
He might ask for a transfer -now that he has sampled first team football?

note:look at the number of young players man city are losing?