What can Arsenal learn from the Red Sox?

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Enjoy the monthly column from Jonathan. Make sure to follow him @jblauphoto 

It’s Monday, January 28th, (as I write this,) and Arsenal are the 6th best football club in England.

(I don’t want to hear that we’re still ahead of United on goal different. Shut your mouth.)

It’s a cold, sunny Monday here in the Rocky Mountains, and I’m trying to synopsize the last month for you, since I wrote my “what the fuck is Emery thinking?” column at the end of the year.

At this point, 8 months into his reign, I’d say that the jury is still out on Unai Emery, but doubts are beginning to creep into the global fan base.

(Will he ever stick with one line-up? Or formation? Does he have a grand plan?)

Personally, I was pretty surprised he didn’t run out the same lineup for the United FA Cup match that crushed Chelsea earlier in the week.

Surely, outside of changing the goal-keeper, I thought he would have to play the same team, given how well they handled Chelsea.

Three DM’s supporting 2 (finally) capable CBs, with Ramsey feeding Lacazette and Aubameyang.

I was sure he’d go back to the well.

But, of course, I was wrong.

You can understand why he put Iwobi into the team ahead of Guendouzi, and it’s not like it was a crazy idea. It’s just that almost anyone else would have said, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

But not Unai Emery, who seemingly loves to chop and change more than my 6 year old daughter playing with her squishies and Shopkins. (Don’t ask.)

Lots of media coverage has focused on Emery the tactical coach, or lately, Emery the failed motivator. On and on, we focus on his rebuild or his vision.

But during the last month, lots of ink was also spilled about the departure of Sven Mislintat, and the nasty power struggle that ended with his shanking out back behind the basketball court.

Surely, to the outside observer, it looks like Arsenal are in turmoil, as there is no firm system in place to replace the “Arsene decides” battle plan that was wheat-pasted up in the board room for the last 22 years.

The truth of the matter is, if you want to understand where we stand in the Premier League right now, you have to look to the Boston Red Sox.

Really, the Red Sox have all the answers.

I’ve noticed lately that Pete has begun to make comparisons to the American sports leagues, but normally he’s cutting and pasting from other articles.

I can tell you right off the top of my head what you need to know.

For a hundred years, the Red Sox were laughing stocks. They were a joke, as they suffered under the curse of Babe Ruth. Having sold the famed ballplayer to the Yankees, their rival, they watched the Yanks win all sorts of things, while their trophy cabinet collected dust like my daughter collects little plastic toys. (She’s got enough to choke a blue whale.)

Always, the Sox were chokers.

They couldn’t win.

But then, a hedge-fund type with partners rolling in Cosby-show-money bought the team, and they became very early adopters of the now-ubiquitous use of analytics.

Yes, that’s right.

Numbers.

Around the time Billy Beane was getting famous for Moneyball, the Sox ownership group, (Henry, Werner et al) went out and hired the man who invented the field, Bill James.

Apparently, he was the numbers geek of all geeks, as he sent out his own photocopied zine that made waves around the sports industry, back in the day.

They hired Bill James, and all of a sudden, began coveting players who drew walks, and got on base a lot. They went after fat guys, (like Kevin Youkilis,) and at first, there was little competition for the players they wanted.

And unlike the Oakland A’s, whose penny-pinching drove them to look for undervalued assets, the Red Sox were a big market team in a sports-crazed city, and they matched their numbers-crunching with some serious investments.

You might not have heard of Big Papi, or Jonny Damon, but the Red Sox players of the early century became Boston legends when they came from 3-0 down in the American League Championship, against the dreaded Yankees, and beat them, going on to win their first World Series in nearly a century.

But that wasn’t the end.

Continuing to invest and innovate, and leaning on their back-room nerds, the Red Sox have now won 3 more World Series.

(Making 4 championships this century for a club that went forever without winning.)

Even better, another of their hero-number-crunchers, Theo Epstein, went to the Chicago Cubs, an equally big loser, and after installing the same operating system, he won a World Series there as well.

So that’s 5 Championships for the analytics team put together by the (gulp) Liverpool owners.

It’s been enough years that I don’t remember when I saw it, but at some point after they bought Liverpool, I read an article about how the owners were investing in football analytics, and expected to be ahead of the curve, as the “right” numbers were not completely understood at the management level across global football.

So here we are, in 2019, and it’s all worked out for them.

Klopp is great, don’t get me wrong, but really, their success has come from finding the right players, mostly for affordable prices, and then making good decisions.

Yes, Van Dijk and Alison were super-expensive, but only because Liverpool got to the point where they were minting enough high-level assets to afford them.

Just think: Mané, Salah, Firmino, Coutinho, Winjaldum… Arsenal could have bought any of them.

(Mané was playing in the Premier League, for heaven’s sake, and had already roasted Arsenal at Southampton.)

But Arsenal, perhaps using the wrong type of analytic analysis, bought Xhaka, Mustafi, and some old guys.

And here we are, in 2019, with a team in need of a massive defensive rebuild, and seemingly requiring player sales of improved assets of fuel the new purchases.

Because unlike the Liverpool ownership group, Stan Kroenke is famous for not wanting to put one of his own dollars into running the club.

So where does that leave us?

Most of you guys probably read this blog each day, and know that Pete has taken on this subject rather often, whether we’ll be a development/analytics club going forward, or a “let me pull out my Rolodex” kind of club, with Raul running the show.

At this point, unlike the last few years, the Kroenkes are finally experiencing genuine success in LA and Denver. (The Washington Post even did a cover story on Stan’s big stadium play in Inglewood.)

The mustache-dude is not averse to spending money in all cases, apparently. And now, he’s getting some serious visuals on how brand-building and winning turn into hard currency.

So that’s where we are now.

I’m hoping that Arsenal will see the writing on the wall, invest in scouting and asset building, and buckle down to work our way back up into the Top 4, and then hopefully into genuine contention by the time Klopp and Pep leave in 2-4 seasons.

There is a blue print out there for us, if we follow it.

Unfortunately, given the resurgence of Man U, and the unlimited funds available at City, plus Abramovich’s addiction to winning, the future does not look rosy.

Not yet.

Not now, at the end of January, 2019.

But, as usual, we’ll know more in May.

Remember, follow him @jblauphoto 

524 Comments
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Sanmi

Typical legroan, playing football managers.
Gone are the days you wanted Samba, Schneiderlin,
Now it’s fucking Zaha that flatters to deceive. Can’t even score decent amount of goals. Brooks has.only performed for half a season.

Graham62

Terri Makki

“I don’t agree less kids are into Arsenal”

You’re wrong.

Sanmi

Majority here haven’t seen Dennis Suarez play I’d presume. He’s amazing 1v1. And has better control of the ball than Zaha.

Valentin

@Freddie,

Suarez did play some games on the right, but whenever I saw him play he was either part of a diamond midfield or of a Front 3 IN a 4-3-3.
Not as a eat the line and beat your opponent outside winger. I may be wrong, but I don’t think he has the physicality nor the pace to be a pure winger creating cutback and crosses in the EPL.
I suspect neither does Emery, hence the loan with an option not an obligation to buy.

Freddie Ljungberg

Valentin

We’re not looking for a pure winger that hugs the sideline, why would we, it doesn’t suit our strikers at all. That’s also not how, Liverpool, Man city, Man U, Chelsea play.

By winger I mean part of a front three, as the playmaker, he’s much more suited to that role than Mikhi for example who’s been playing there when fit. Would allow us to rest our strikers a bit more too before they break down.

I’m not saying he’s my first choice but considering the situation we’re in it could work out nicely.

Dark Hei

Freddie

Lol, maybe its a plot to……..bring the best out of Ozil!

4-2-3-1 formation. Iwobi on the left, Suarez on the right and Ozil in the middle with Auba as the striker.

Freddie Ljungberg

More likely to be Ramsey in the middle in that case and we’ll get the creativity from the wings, Ozil belongs on the bench or in the stands if he doesn’t want to leave.

We’ll see though, Suarez could just as well be used as CAM, think it depends on if we bring someone else in

Sanmi

Val
If you say Dennis lack pace, you haven’t watched him play alot. He’s really fast

qna

Sanmi: Majority here haven’t seen Dennis Suarez play I’d presume. He’s amazing 1v1. And has better control of the ball than Zaha.

Correct, I have seen pretty much nothing of him. Great to hear the big wraps and look forward to seeing him. I love that we have the option to buy. He will have 4 months to prove you right, otherwise we should be putting our money elsewhere.

Tony

Dark Her Nice side step of my question; you’d make a good politician. His talent isn’t in question from me – it’s the many other faults he has, which has been well documented here and in the press. That and appalling stats for this season. What he’s done before means nothing if he’s not doing it now. I don’t subscribe to your Wenger left over narrative either. My dislike of Wenger and what he did to our club does in no way cloud my judgement regarding any of his players in the squad. There are a few I would be… Read more »

Cesc Appeal

Is it time to wait for another Ozil reaction now? You wait for his reaction after the World Cup, no no, you wait for his reaction for being subbed early, no no, you wait for his reaction after Emery called him a pussy, no no, you wait for his reaction after being dropped, no no, you wait for his reaction at the club trying to move him to PSG. He’s literally turning into Walcott. Justified by a stat, overpaid, overhyped and forever a ‘you will see tomorrow’ player even though he’s 30. This is him, this is his level and… Read more »

Tony

Cesc Appeal
Perfectly summed up

Marko

He’s a wet sponge. Nothing more

Left testicle

Evolution of the No.10: How Dele and the new breed render Özil a relic…

https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/the-evolution-of-the-no-10

Left testicle

The ‘Goal Threat + Defensive Work’ graph is telling.

Marko

Worst case scenario it’s just Suarez today. Best case scenario it’s Suarez, Nkunku and Tielemens. Perisic and Carrasco seem unlikely but you never know. PSG for example only showed an interest in Willian during the night

HighburyLegend

For Ozil’s defence, he had 2 choices : to be the best world’s Fortnite player, or to stay focus on football. We all know which path he has chosen.

Marko

He’s not that good at Fortnite.

gambon

Valentin

Youre wrong regarding the need to sell 2 players, because of home grown quotas.

Mavropanos and Guendouzi dont have to be registered as they are 20 and 19.

gambon

Even Emery doesnt sound that excited by Suarez.

“We need Wingers” is not exactly a glowing reference is it.

HighburyLegend

WTF is going on at Chelsea ?? lol

Too bad we are so inconstant, the 4th place could be ours…

Valentin

@Gambon,

In order to be considered U21, you need to have been registered for two years at the club which is a condition that neither meet.
That is why you can’t just buy any U21 English player to fill your quota. That restriction was added by UEFA and I think copied by The English FA to stop predatory behaviour by big clubs.

Sanmi

Dennis Suarez skill level is amazing I’m surprised folks here are not excited. For me he’s a winger, he’s too explosive to be an AM. He picks his passes very well though but always run with the ball beating players for fun.
Auba will hit 30 with him supplying. Iwobi will be shifted to right wing.
Ozil will never play again

Sanmi

He doesn’t feature regularly for Barca because his style means they’d have 3 players running with the ball. That’s a conflict.
He’s a better winger than coutinho for sure.

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