So here we are, entering phase 4 of the season. The last international break of the year has passed, and we’re about to hit a traditionally muddy part of the season. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that the next few weeks will go a long way to deciding our #Top4Fate.
We’re currently high off the fumes after an exhilarating hit of unbeaten. 16 is a big number, a crazy amount of games no one really thought possible this early in the project. However, the statistics point to us being in a bit of a bubble. You can cover your eyes, you can hide behind the couch, you can scream SHUT UP AND BACK THE MIRAGE, but ultimately, it’s clear we’re at a crossroads.
We’re 11th position in the xG league. That you dislike the metric of measuring luck matters not. Simple fact is, the methodology is sound enough to be used by elite management and it states we’re overperforming. Sky ran numbers yesterday showing our save percentage of 72% was the best in the league (about time) and our conversion rate is about 23%, which is again, the best in the league. That’s not sustainable, and we all know it. If our level drops on either one, as we’re currently playing, there will be an almighty correction.
This weekend, we play Bournemouth who sit 4 points behind us in the league and occupy 5th in the xG league. They’re where they are because they deserve it. This game is going to be very tough, especially after a fairly drab run of draws. Bournemouth are going to come at us. Teams don’t really fear Arsenal, we’re wide open at the back, we’re easy to get in behind and we’re susceptible to the basic counter. This is a massive banana skin.
We absolutely have to win, because we have Spurs and United coming up. The shape of the league this year looks very much like the top 4 are going to pull away from the chasing pack quite early on. If we have a disastrous few weeks and find ourselves 7 or 8 points back, that could be very hard to chase considering the lack of quality we have in the squad compared to the others.
This is the phase of the season where I think we’ll find out whether the ideas have settled. The ideal is that in the next month, we see that the defence has settled. Hopefully, the manager finds a way to bring composure to the back line, and works out a way of integrating Mesut into the side so we release his attacking prowess at the same time as finding a way for him to defend. Hopefully, we can find a way of being more creative as a team, because at the minute, we’re winning because we’re unbelievably clinical in front of goal.
There’s a lot we’re going to find out. Bournemouth is the perfect test. Let’s see what Emery has in store, and let’s pray he’s found a formula that brings us home a December to remember.
Bankz is here for the Tr4phy again
Here
4
Tr4phy
Trofee
Back again!
Well done Bankz
Pedro
A well balanced post that mirrors what I have been saying ( and getting abuse for saying it) for the last few weeks.
Will be interesting to see how Emery’s disciples view your post…
Pierre (continuation from previous post)
If Noddy had done as well as Emery has done over these past few months, I would have been singing his praises.
Emery is not the “Messiah”. He is the catalyst for change.
As I’ve always said on here, based on the infrastructure, resources and players at the managers disposal over the past decade or so, winning 3 FA Cups and not “genuinely competing” for anything else, was not good enough.
For you, it may have been.
For me, it wasn’t.
It’s the way you say it Pierre.
Pierre,from last post: Spurs didn’t recruit in the summer so they had reason to play those players returning late from the world cup. How do you think their player fitness will hold up over a season. City has quality replacements in every area of the pitch so totally different view on players from them. It may have been the wrong move to not Play the players you’re saying, but in hindsight, guen was in form and was tested in a game that was pretty much written off by everyone but yourself it seems, Cech was on fire for the start… Read more »
Emery doesn’t have to be a messiah. The fact that he is minimally competent is a breath of fresh air.
The players’ comments about how they now know where to be on the pitch were telling.
Now if Arsenal can just rebalance the comically unbalanced squad and bring in a quality CB, LB and wing (two, really), things could be really fun.
GoonerinNY
“The players’ comments about how they now know where to be on the pitch were telling”
Not “telling” …..it is a sign that he is the messiah.
Graham
“Emery is not the “Messiah”. He is the catalyst for change.”
I thought for a second you was going to say ” he’s not the messiah,he’s a very naughty boy”…
Years of telling off ‘Le grovellers’ for not supporting the team, manager enough. Now he can’t handle the fact that everyone is totally behind the new man.
You couldn’t make up the absolute infantile that is Pierre.
Can’t somebody bin this droll troll?
Spud troll is getting vexed
Pedro Everything you highlight makes perfect sense, if it had been based on a normal and logical handover. The fact that we are, at this moment in time, where we are, is a massive bonus as far as I’m concerned. Twelve games and 24 points is excellent, all considered. Yes, things have not always been pretty and yes some of the players are still struggling to adapt, but Emery deserves time and leeway to try and sort things out. Most importantly, Emery deserves our RESPECT for installing into the “team”, in such a short period, the hunger and desire to… Read more »
Rambo
Give him some leeway.
He’s only 62.
Pierre
Your sense of humour is infantile.
At least Pedro has the balls to tell it as it is……
“Not creating enough”
“Defence not settled”
“A mirage ,we’re at the crossroads”
“We’re overperforming, stats not sustainable”
“, and let’s pray he’s found a formula”
No one can really argue against any of those perceptive points that Pedro has brought to le grove this morning.
Pedro “has the balls” to write a football blog stating things are good not great? Pierre is such a millennial.
This will be the type of high energy game that you just know Ozil does not do well in which is why I would sit him out of this game.
I’d love it if we set up 442 again as we did against Fulham. We looked so dangerous in that game with lots of energy.
Difference is Pedro is a sound critic, has been for years.
But you, you are the caricature that had his tongue lodged deep in a failing manager’s anus until the bitter end.
Now you’re giving it large to Emery for the supposed mistakes in team selection he committed for his very first game in charge. Changes that might have proved redundant for all we know.
Thanks Pedro for allowing Pierre to ruffle his own feathers.
He loves nothing more than someone massaging his ego.
Just a pity he can’t see how ridiculous he looks.
Have a nice day everyone.
pierre
you must be the first 60 year old to be on the computer the whole day. I wonder what your pass time was during your youth. The old days when the internet didn’t exist.
Or are you just one of those pervy old men who can finally use the internet to watch young girls in bikinis ?
Graham62
Infantile… means sonny boy missing Popawong ?
The next three games in EPL could well decide our season. Ideally I would like to see a couple of victories, but that may well be difficult to achieve, Alternatively I would hope that we can avoid defeat against Spurs and Man Utd. Such results would of course indicate a progression from previous seasons. Whatever the detractors of Emery and the team will say Arsenal this season are now a difficult team to beat so we should not write them off. Arsenal have not played well this season in many games particularly in the first half, but the idea that… Read more »
Pierre at 60 is a mere boy – says this 78 year old. Can’t believe the change into negative vibes on here. By good fortune we have recruited a world class manager imo. His CV at 47 is already impressive & his best years should be ahead of him – let’s hope the Wigmeister supports him with funds as necessary – not holding my breath though & would not be surprised if Unai walks away after a season or two.
No one can really argue against any of those perceptive points that Pedro has brought to le grove this morning.
You might be right Pierre I mean he was spot on for years regarding Wenger. Anyway we only have to sustain it until January/February and hopefully get in some help
Nonsense article
We won’t find out more until Emery fields a few more of his own choice of players.
There is another possiblity to explain the stats.
We might actually have some pretty damn good strikers and goalkeepers.
And maybe we should just be happy that they are able to pull the team while things are not clicking too well which has been the story of the first few months so far.
I mean lets be fair. How high on the table would spuds be without kane? Im sort of laughing at the prospect 😀
Sure it is a simple way of looking at things but most often the simplest explanation also happens to be the truth.
The only stat that matters is 3 points at the final whistle.
Arsenal will lose to Bournemouth, Spurs and United, we will finish sixth.
The stats say Kane was top scorer in the World Cup with 6 goals yet in reality he was one of the worst strikers on display.
Yawn
Arsenal apparently looking at Trossard of Genk.
Mislintat is going to be made to really earn his money in January I think. Finding solutions to a very unbalanced squad which has lost Ramsey and Welbeck on a budget.
I’ve come to the realization that perhaps Arsenal’s biggest handicap lies in its players – many of them are simply not good enough … I mean you only need to look past Torreira, Leno, Guendouzi and Lacazzate as the genuine standout players to realize that what we have is a group of average players clugging about the place.. which brings me to another point. having average players need not be an hindrance, we saw Ferguson winning the league in his latter years with some average players, with the right mentality even average players can be boosted to perform above their… Read more »
Real Madrid proving this taking over a new team thing is not really that easy
I mean they only lost Ronaldo, yes a lot of goals and assists left with him, but we were told they have World class players and very good up and coming ones, what is happening??
We on the other hand are here expecting Emery to deliver champagne football and three points in every game with a squad of players that finished 6th
Not sure I’ve even heard of the team that’s just beaten Madrid 3 – 0.
Expect some major changes in the summer there – bye bye Poch and Mong.
works out a way of integrating Mesut into the side so we release his attacking prowess at the same time as finding a way for him to defend.
A challenge beyond any manager on this or any other planet.
Got to agree with Red on Kane, he might have scored goals at the world cup but he looked fucked for most of it.
This is worrying, a red heifer has been born is Israel, something about the Sun in Uranus but that could be blood in UT’s anus and I’m agreeing with Red.
Fuck me we’re all doomed!
red truth
The only stat that matters is 3 points at the final whistle.
this. The truth is always red, unless we are discussing Ospina 😉😉
RH Absolutely. And a limited budget which is a direct consequence of our failures over the last 2 years when you listen to Venkatesham. Those who have always been critical and are applying measured criticism is fine, that’s football, quite rightly. But those who have spoken up against what the club and manager are doing more in a few months than they have in 7 years clearly have agenda and are best ignored. I really wish everyone would ignore the trolls. The sensible among us, which is most of us, realise what a big job this is and that it… Read more »
That’s right. Any sensible person knows a lot of work needs to be done. Any sensible person also knows we needed change to be able to progress and that Emery might not get us exactly there but will set us on the part.
I mean that’s one thing I give IG praise for. He might not have got us there but he played his part in making sure we are set up to reach there.
CA
You look super excited about these players being linked to us. I am too. But I wonder, are the papers taking baits and just linking us to anybody, any name that sounds ‘hidden’?
And are they actually any good?
Cesc
“I really wish everyone would ignore the trolls.”
Agreed.
Mystic I would imagine there is an element of clickbait. At the same time the club have been far more proactive in the transfer market since the arrival of Mislintat and Sanllehi. So far as well Mislintat has not really let us down. Mavropanos looks a good find, Guendouzi looks a great find, Torreira was a find as well as there were not that many people seriously talking him, That’s not bad for 12 months in the job decent job with Leno as well and a solid CB for a bargain price in Sokratis. The idea of finding a Pepe,… Read more »
Redtruth, I think you just explained the post perfectly. Goals scored said Kane was one of the best strikers at the WC, but if you broke down his goals and looked at where they came from, you’d see he was maybe not. That’s why we’re at a crossroads. On paper, we’re doing the business. Which is marvellous, but scratch a little deeper and we’re getting by on luck. The hope is the manager can move away from luck carrying his side… and give us more solidity at the back, which maybe tough until the summer… and give us more creativity… Read more »
While I agree the next few games are important, I don’t think they will determine whether we finish top four. Two things will be more important, IMO, to whether we finish top four, and they are: one, what we do in the January window; and two, any change or changes Emery makes to the formation. Based on what we’ve seen thus far this season, I’d say the current squad / set-up is good enough to finish 5th, but I don’t see this group (set up this way) being better than both Tottenham and United over another 26 matches. Thus any… Read more »
I was told from a good place that our transfer ambitions next summer are going to have to be fueled by sales and likely a lower wage bill. Dembele not even a pipe dream. I think we have about £30m to play with next season. The club are going to have to be super cute if we’re to move the squad forward. I think one of the craziest moves of Wenger’s tenure was taking his wage/transfer budget and blowing nearly all of it on wages. Our wage bill is disgraceful. If we dropped it down to Atleti levels, we’d have… Read more »
Bamford, fitness is also key. Emery loves to train his players very hard, and he’s had to do more sessions because his players have never been coached.
If that takes its toll in December, we don’t have the depth to deal with it like the 4 teams above us (or United, really).
Pedro has mirrored all my concerns of the last few weeks in today’s post ……
How long will it be before we see the full backs playing more conservatively….it needs to happen if we want to look solid at the back and it needs to happen now.
Pedro
“If that takes its toll in December, we don’t have the depth to deal with it like the 4 teams above us (or United, really).”
Spot on …some need a reality check on here.
Pierre
Life of Brian is my favourite film ever
Pedro
Agree that fitness will be important, agree that we will need to be very smart re scouting / signings going forward, and agree that Wenger’s wage bill was poor money management, as was the re-signing of Ozil on absurd wages.
Reality check…lol
What exactly is the alternative, the players stop training? Stop working hard to iron out flaws on the training pitch? Ozil being left alone to pull sick leaves like a pregnant teenager? The forward players being asked to ignore any kind of pressing from the front? The full backs asked to hold their position and deny us of width?
What exactly do you suggest Pedro and Pierre?
RH,we haven’t seen what the result of the over-training is yet. Emery might have the answer already. He might have a great rotation plan, he might let players have mini breaks in December. They might go dark on training during our busy month. They might have some unbelievable approach to periodisation that we don’t know about.
I know it’s crazy to imagine… but there’s usually more than one method in football.
Interesting to read Poch complaining about players fatigue so early… he’s picked up a lot of injuries after the world cup. That small squad of there’s is due a collapse at some point. That said, he’s always been good at managing fatigue.
Our relatively low xG number tells you we aren’t creating enough chances / good chances. Why? If you had told us two years ago that we’d have both Lacazette and Aubameyang in the 2018 squad, most people here would have been pretty pleased and would have thought that that would make for a pretty strong attacking force. But it hasn’t. Why? As I’ve said before, I think it’s down to a few things: one, weak wide play; two, deploying Auba wide despite his not being a genuine wide player; three, playing 4-5-1 rather than either 4-3-3 or some two CF… Read more »
Fellaini is a dirty cunt
Nor have anyone ever told us they were over training. Its just your narrative
And yes I for one have seen the result of their work on the training ground. I am not hung up on Xg or whatever fancy way it is written. I simply watch games for player improvement and I have noticed a few
There are always a couple of teams who defy the XG logic every season. Burnley last season because xG couldn’t account for their blocking. United as well because of DDG. I agree with you on the fact that defensively, we are riding our luck. Saves and poor conversions by opponents is saving us. Offensively though, I think what we are converting is sustainable, at least for a season. Very few teams play with two strikers who have had such conversion rates over the past 5 years. 7amkickoff wrote a post saying that both Laca and Auba have been converting at… Read more »
Pedro The only quibble I have with what you’ve said just above is your use of “over-training”. That Emery has trained the players hard is a fact; whether he has “over-trained” them is quite another thing, and I don’t think we have seen any indications of that at this point. Indeed, we’ve looked quite fit in second halves and have had relatively few soft tissue injuries, so I’d say Emery’s training regimen is looking pretty good at moment. If in December players start showing fatigue, or getting injuries, or complaining of over-training, then we might have something to talk about… Read more »
I think we have about £30m to play with next season Good one. Been spending conservatively and within our means forever and all of a sudden we’re down to 30 million. Europa League not an excuse because there’s Europa League teams who spend more than that sort of money in fact there’s teams with no European football whatsoever who spend more than 30 million. Never mind what we charge for a match day ticket or the new sponsorship deals coming in. Whoever spins the yarn of 30 million transfer budgets for a club like Arsenal is literally taking the piss.… Read more »
Pedro
Hasn’t the Poch been praised for the high intensity of training that the Spud’s do. Double sessions and all sorts?
I think our previous problem has been more akin to over playing when someone is carrying a knock or needs a rest.
Also anyone who talks about us not having the squad to cope with a lot of fixtures of Christmas compared with Chelsea or the Spud’s needs to re check the squads available to the other teams.
Will United seriously draw at home to Palace?
I thought not beating them at their place was inexcusable now apparently they aren’t being easily swapped aside by United either
We win tomorrow and that’s 6 points in front of ManU and closing the gap on one of / both of Chelsea and the Spud’s.
Mourinho’s United is abysmal, anything less than 3 points against them will be points dropped.
Marko
I agree that £30m seems a bit low, but we spent £150m on Laca, Auba and Mustafi, we have a massive wage bill, we’ve missed out on CL money two years in a row, and we didn’t get money from sales of Alexis or Ramsey.
That we have less money to play with is to be expected.
United are shite. Fuck me they are awful Palace if they’d won two pens would have won that. And dare I say it because everyone would prefer to highlight Pogba moreso but Matic has nose dived recently
Receding
Whilst it’s not a good excuse I also think at least we can blame 2 crazy penalties we gave away. Xhaka was well Xhaka and at least he can say he was playing out of position. The Mustafi pen was crazy for an experienced CB.
Whilst we will never eradicate all mistakes over the next 2 transfer windows hopefully we can remove the guilty parties of some of these things.
TR7
I’d take a point away at Utd (unless they completely collapse) Mourinho hates us and will have them wound up.
but we spent £150m on Laca, Auba and Mustafi, we have a massive wage bill, we’ve missed out on CL money two years in a row, and we didn’t get money from sales of Alexis or Ramsey. What does the Laca and Auba deals have anything to do with the summer of 2019? Do you think Chelsea factored in the 50 million they spent on Torres when signing Jorginho and Kovacic last summer? Also I understand the wage bill has to be brought down but again that shouldn’t be a factor when discussing the notion of a club like Arsenal… Read more »
Marko
If we beat Bournemouth tomorrow and the Spud’s next week then even if we lose to Utd we’d still be 3 points in front – assuming they win they other game. In recent years we’d be looking at trying to keep the gap at single points even at this stage of the season.
Banford
Still trotting out the ‘shit wide play’ line, but also dressing Lacazette up as a dud wherever the opportunity presents itself. Classic stuff
If you’d ditch the insatiable need to be correct on every utterance you’d be a worthwhile contributor on here. Alas…
Correction – meant single digits there!
We have a lot more than £30m to spend next summer.
The big issue is how much we can spend from an accounting point of view.
If they give Emery £30m to spend I hope he resigns.
I thought the Mustafi, Laca and Aba signings were more in the £115 million range.
If the money was also so tight why did we spend £65 million in the summer?Weren’t the same people saying we’d only spend £30 million last summer?
MC and Liverpool pulling away.
Fancy Spuds and Chelski to be a draw.
Everton just two points behind us.
Need the win tomorrow.
Not going to be easy.
I think it’s more likely at worst we will have £60 – 70 Million again. No doubt the club wants to tighten up on wages after the socialist style spunking up the wall of our money. Time for a grown up approach grounded in reality and actual appraisal of worth. I don’t know who is responsible for the Ozil deal, whether that was Gazidis, Wenger or someone in the new team but what an absolute cluster f**k that is. We need to make every penny count after the damage Wenger did and we’re paying £350 000 a week to a… Read more »
Marc
A win against Mourinho’s side is long overdue and so is an away win at Old toilet. I still can’t get over losing that game against United’s B team a couple of years ago in which Rashford scored a brace. There should be no excuses this time around, United are a real mess.
I stick with my earlier prediction of City, Chelsea, Spurs and Pool finishing top 4. Europa is our best route to make the CL again.
I think it’s more likely at worst we will have £60 – 70 Million again.
At least. I would say where we finish will have a big say in how much obviously. But no one is convincing me that next summer we’ll only have 30 million to spend. We’re likely to spend more than that this January alone
Champagne One, I didn’t say we have “shit” wide play, I said we have weak wide play, something many here (if not most) would agree with. Two, I didn’t say anything about Lacazette being “a dud”. That’s an invention on your part. Three, I’m just trying to add to the discussion here; I am in no way fixated on being right. Four, I am not the one creating conflict or unpleasantness here. That would be you. You are the one calling out another poster, misrepresenting what he has said and being hostile and unfriendly. You are the one harassing another… Read more »
Man United have a negative goal difference and has created less chances than Southampton but mourinho will rather put three fingers up and antagonize supporters after a smash and grab at Turin
We have shit wide play
Spurs score from a freekick that was not a freekick
Eriksen is a player and a half though.
When you think Spurs have assembled Kane, Alli and Eriksen for about £21 Million.
Goals.
Marko I agree that we should have more than Pedro’s low-ball £30m figure. However, my point is that we have in fact been spending money over the past two or so years and that people shouldn’t be surprised that we might have less money to spend at moment than we once did. Over the past two years we have spent, for example, £35m on Mustafi, £53m on Lacazette and £56m on Aubameyang. That’s £144m right there. Add in the £40m we spent on Xhaka and that’s a total of £184m on just four players. That’s not chump change. And when… Read more »
People rarely talk about him but Son is such a dangerous player.
Hopefully, we have a lot of money, I’d imagine a lot is dependent on CL.
Something will have to give if we don’t… quite a few players who will….
FUCK HARRY KANE>>>
That’s a really poor distance to concede from…
Kane.
Wow, uses the defenders and bangs one from distance. Kepa can’t see it, no chance.
Spurs by far the better team.
Alli is absolutely marking Jorginho out of the game.
Chelsea sixes and sevens.
How you went from 184 million over a 3 year period to all of a sudden just having 30 million is beyond me. Are we working on a 4/5 year budget or something? What relevance does the 50 million and 53 million and 35 million and 35 million on Laca, Auba, Xhaka and Mustafi have to do with 30 million in 2019? If anything it proves that it’s nonsense. We could spend over a 100 million inside 6 months and 35 million each on two shit players but NOW we’ve only got 30 million to spend? Nah
“People rarely talk about him but Son is such a dangerous player.”
And he’s barely been doing anything this season. They still have him to come into form and it wouldn’t surprise me if contributed a huge amount over the next couple of months.
Tottenham’s squad is much better and bigger than people think. They have plenty of players – and quick athletic ones as well like Sissoko – to fall back should legs get heavy in other areas.
Let’s say it as it is.
If it is £30 Million only.
With a squad built by an imbecile for the last 6 years that is totally without balance and looks as if it was assembled by someone blindfolded in a dark basement.
With nothing of value to sell to raise funds.
Having locked ourselves in to a lampshade for £350 000 a week.
We’re fucked.
Emery is going to have to be an absolute miracle worker.
I just don’t think it is £30 Million though. Even without UCL football.
Plus, all this ‘we spent x amount on y players’ does nothing to dispel the notion that clubs pay full transfer fees up front for all player purchases.
They don’t, because player amortisation.
Banford
It’s your name because you incessantly ask for bans. End of story.
You’re arguing semantics to conflate the point being made. Call our wide play weak, shit, poor, garbage, less than stellar, whatever you damn like. The point is you acknowledge a flaw but still judge Lacazette negatively.
You do this because you held a view early on that he wasn’t good enough, and you don’t want to be wrong. So as I stated, your view of Lacazette is comical with this in mind. But he doesn’t dribble like Aguero am I right?
–
That Kepa is krap