I just watched the Damned United for the first time on the way back home. What a great film. When Peter Taylor and Brian Clough make up at the end, I think I did an emotion. So touching. Two guys that just really loved each other. What a character Clough was. I loved how aggressive he was about playing football the right way.
Arsenal, unfortunately, are still out of action for a whole extra week. We don’t play again until we meet Leicester next Monday. If you look at our season in blocks, we’re now entering the third. This one is going to be tricky. It runs to the Wolves game on November 11th. Has 4 Premier League games, 2 Europa and a League Cup run out. The players will have been away from home for two weeks, a touch of fatigue may have settled in for those that traveled a long way, and the winter will set in.
This block of games is extra interesting because firstly, we play Liverpool in it, secondly, because the rest of the games are those that we really should be winning, racking up points in the process. This will be a big mental test of the players, because there’s once again this thing called ‘expectation’ building with the fans.
Have you truly felt that in the last ten years?
Not only that, there’s a run of wins to maintain which comes with its own demons. It’s tough to churn out victories when you’re on a run, even tougher bouncing back from a defeat. To be honest, seeing how we bounce back is going to fascinating, because even in peak Wenger days, he was rarely able to summon the players after they were rocked by a major loss.
There are three targets for me in this block of games.
Stretch target of 10 points from our 4 Premier League games.
Improve our defending, and make our xG reflect our results. Namely, get better at defending, and stop relying on luck. Interesting that Ballague said the coaching staff put 50% of our points on Petr Cech.
Improve our attack, maintain the amount of goals we’re scoring, but increase the amount of chances we create. I don’t mind seeing more wastage with a similar amount of goals, what I’m not comfortable with, is seeing us scoring 25% of our shots. It’s great on the face of it, but it’s certainly not sustainable. Simply put, we can’t keep scoring 2+ goals a game.
The cup final of this block of games is the Liverpool match. There’s no hiding there. We’ll need to defend well, and we’ll need to create. Losing that game, which has a high probability based on xG, will be no blight on our season. We have to remember that Klopp has had 3 years to work on his squad and he’s spent a shed load of cash.
Emery has had one window to work with and he spent most of that fixing a mess, versus building on a well-drilled machine with CL cash. Worth noting that I’ve heard from a very good place that the leaders in the backroom think Europa League is still our best bet for CL this season. Kind of paints a picture that everyone knows this season isn’t going to be totally rosy. This Liverpool game will be a good indicator regardless.
Another item Emery has to be very careful with is the management of his squad. Darren Burgess has a huge task ahead of him making sure that the player are as fresh as can be heading into block 4, which is the dreaded Christmas period. I was heartened to see us rotate hard for the Fulham game. If we were on a run like we have been under Wenger, he’d have played the same 11 game after game, with crippling December consequences. What Emery is doing is keeping players fresh physically, but importantly, he’s telling the fringe players they’ll have a role to play this season.
If players feel like they’re just there to slip in when someone breaks, it can have a negative impact when they arrive. They don’t feel part of the group, they’re rusty, they’re not 100% on their game. We’ll need our whole squad for December, and without doubt, it’ll shape our chances of making the top 4 this season. We need to avoid injuries, we need to avoid a loss of confidence and we need to do everything we can to maintain momentum going into January.
So, in short, we’re in great shape so far. We’re ahead of where any of us imagined we’d be, but this next block, though not littered with tough games, really is incredibly important in shaping how the December run goes.
It’s all very exciting.
NOT AS EXCITING AS SEEING ENGLAND DO SPAIN. Hooray. We have an exciting batch of kids coming through. Pepper in AMN, Sancho, Smith Rowe, Reiss and Nketiah and we’re rolling at the next World Cup.
SEE YOU IN THE COMMENTS x
Just a guess here but I imagine we’ll be hearing about xG a million more times or until the world ends. It’s the hipster’s new phrase of the day
Red is one of the historians on the site.
You get the sense he has a big board with newspaper clippings of all Arsenal results since 19966
It’s only natural that kids follow the successful teams, best players and football will obviously always be the main attraction, imagine as to being so dense that you fail to grasp that.
Old boys who grew up with 70’s and 80’s Liverpool or old school Everton and Villa fans are every bit as much glory hunters as they were the successful sides of that era.
Marko, I thought that initially, but it’s actually not. It’s a way of explaining away good luck or bad. It gives you a good vibe of where you should have been. It’s a great stat if it’s measured properly.
International breaks does show who is who in the LG-verse.
I do feel there are many well off retired folks here who have just time and time to go on about almost everything besides Arsenal, ironically which is what this blog actually is all about. You guys are lucky.
As someone men mentioned somewhere above, Liverpool is our next acid test. I hope we pass it with freakin flying colours. Can’t wait for the Leceister game to roll in
I wasn’t directing it necessarily at you Pete I’ve heard this xG stuff about 20 times since the international break and it honestly just seems like another way to get a thinly veiled swipe at either the job Emery’s doing or Arsenal in general. It’s not a good barometer of a teams performance if you ask me
WengerEagle
Arsenal had six Irish players in the side in the 70’s ….now hardly any British players in the side…lol
I mean I think I read somewhere that they predicted that Man City will be champions with this xG stuff which is ridiculous because not every game is the same the idea that they have the same amount of chances every game or the same kind of chances every game is fanciful at best
It’s not a prediction model, it’s more of a form guide based on chances created and chances conceded.
Germany relegated lol
Pedro I read somewhere where they used it a predictor which is silly. Only things that can be correctly predicted in life is we’ll all die and Aubergine will have a little man complex until the end
Ruth
Back in the day English clubs were full of foreigners….scots,Irish and Welsh …the successful liverpool sides were full of jocks,paddy’s and taffy’s.
‘Jumped on board the trophy train right after the invincibles. Am I right?’
Nope, 99′.
Don’t know if you heard but wasn’t much of a trophy train after the Invincibles…
Red
Best player too in Brady.
Pedro
I don’t get notifications on new posts anymore. I hope its not my mail acting up
Let’s hope our xG improves and we stop picking up all those silly three points
xG is the next level
Un Na
Paying to watch a game gives no one a right to abuse any player. ……..guess you must not agree with your lord Wenger on that one. Atleast Diouf didn’t go all Kungfu on them like Cantona and others did. That’s what twats get for being loud mouths.
Secondly, most dignified folks would rather be selling knock-off gear on a beach than be consumed with hate over how outsiders have overtaken them on their own land. Deal with your shortcomings and let go off hate. Just don’t wanna see you relapse into all day moping and endless self pitying.
I hate international breaks. Even worse the in-laws are here,a surprise visit for a week or two.
A week or two. Like an extra week isnt a big deal. Cunts.
Cant wait to get to work. Fuck my life and fuck xG
Lol Pessimist
Test
Haha ,as if it would ever be a pleasant surprise.
Brilliant Pat
What does xG mean? What am I missing?
Bullshit stat. Any stat that say that based on it we should have lost vs Fulham when we completely wiped the floor with them in a superteam fashion, is a shitty stat. According to this stat when you take a shot from a position, they have a propability that this shot will result in a goal. If it’s from a position that had resulted in a goal scored in 9/10 times, say no keeper or defender but in a bit of an angle, it will give 0.9 xG, and if it’s a shot from far with defenders in front of… Read more »
Let’s talk about the most dumb comment of the day by un na naai .. Says on one hand-“Senegal is a shit hole.” Then on the other hand says-“Senegal is not a shit hole.” Then back tracks and says-“I was just making a comparison between El Hadj Diouf and Vieira.” Then says-“He has never been to Senegal.” So,my point is,if you have never been to Senegal,how do you know it is a shit hole? Dumbo… Let’s turn the tables-never been to P.a.k.i.s.ta.n, India, Malaysia,China, Philippines,Iran or Israel. But it’s a shithole because I say so. In short,dumbhead,qualify your statement with… Read more »
A draw should be our minimum target playing Pool. Emery knows the squad much more than beginning of the season and we should have had at least a draw with Chelsea. We’d head into 2019 in brilliant form once we got over the Pool game unscathed. Tactics aside, Emery knows… *Hone in on and rotate the three best CBs. We need Monreal healthy and consistent as Kolac is a worry @LB. *Make sure Torreira isn’t injured or suspended. *help Xhara’s cut down on some of his errors. *Ramsey starts or not, he’d probably try hard to impress suitors… *With AMN… Read more »
PhD2020
Many shitholes around the world.
Is Lacazette correct by saying the atmosphere in Ligue 1 is better?
I think so.
Last year my son went to Turkey to see Fenerbahce v Galatasaray.
Still recovering!
Graham62October 17, 2018 06:57:42
PhD2020Many shitholes around the world.
———————–
I think you missed the point..
If Unicunt,said he had been to Senegal,and it was a shit hole-then fine.
He said,he had not been there,so how does he know it is a shit hole?
Simple.Not rocket science.
Moe
If you’re referring to when I went through depression then don’t worry boyo. It’s nothing you’d ever know on Le grove. Plus I’m well over it now. Waspish little fucker though aren’t ya?
The first time I heard about xG it was from Tim of 7amkickoff. If you want to get more enlightened on it I guess you need to read 7amkickoff more. Below is one of such posts. Worth a read surely.
http://7amkickoff.com/index.php/2018/10/12/supplement-to-the-arsecast-more-xg-than-you-can-shake-a-stick-at/
pedro is right, the season is a long one. That’s why I didn’t get why people were complaining that leno wasn’t vetting game time or why torreira isn’t in the starting 11 for every game. Everyone will get their chance to play, over playing players, especially New players that are still adjusting to the PL is just not the right way to do things. Anyway the international break always brings out the worst in people on le grove and why are we playing on a Monday when we have a game on Thursday ?
For my own sanity, any articles on xG I conveniently jump it. I can’t come and kill myself
Mysticleaves.
It’s actually “I can’t come and go and kill myself” in Nigerian parlance.
Tim actually make stats interesting. I stopped reading Arseblog’s by the numbers when he stopped hosting it. Give this a try, you know you wanna.
Looks like Petr Cech will be restored to the side as soon he is fit again. According to Guillem Balague, the Arsenal staff have attributed 50% of our point total to Cech.
Bob xG means expected goals I believe?
I don’t need to be told by the XG or expected goals statisticians that Arsenal have been slightly fortunate in games ….watching the matches tell me that. Where Arsenal are also fortunate is that we have ,at long last, top quality strikers in Lacazette and aubamayang who will score goals from nothing and top quality creative talent in Mhkitaryan and ozil and the emerging iwobi and Bellerin who are now capable of playing the right ball at the right time when given the opportunity. I am sure Emery must realise the balance of the team is not quite right ,at… Read more »
Proper random question but I fucked my iPhone X screen at work and a replacement cost over £300 inc labour! Do any of you in London or South East have anyone you can recommend for cheaper? I will post it wherever but I’m not paying that for it!
Sorry to ask here but I’m getting fuck all luck on google.
N5
I don’t think you will get that screen done for much cheaper and if so it will be a dodgy screen. Best to take out warranties with phones as you would of got that fixed for half the price.
SS that’s the conclusion I’ve come too! I have apple warranty but apparently it only covers hardware not screens!! ARRRGGGHHH.
Anyway, thanks for the reply mate I might just have to bite the bullet then!!
I feel your pain N5.
PhD2020
I got the point and you are correct.
Just adding that there are lots of shitholes around the world.
Would be so nice if we actually used the january window to strengthen the team for once. If we could get rid of our contract rebels Ramsey and Welly it’s a bonus. If we get 25-30m for those 2 we don’t have to add much to get someone like Pepe in. Get top 4 and then give all our money in the summer to Ajax for De Ligt and De Jong and we’re pretty much sorted, except for maybe a left back. We need to start getting in top class youngsters that are ready to play right away, the only… Read more »
Ian Wright #8.
Legend.
N5
XG is a useful metric since it shows how well a team is playing.
And it is useful metic for strikers as well.
You can be sure golden strikers like an in-form RVP have actual goals outstripping expected goals.
In other words, they can turn half-chances into goals on a consistent basis.
Am I the only one on here who finds all this statistical analysis rather tedious?
No wonder Lacazette said Ligue1 has more atmosphere.
N5
Mate if you have AppleCare you should be able to replace the screen for £25, at most I think it’s £80 if there’s internal faults.
Can’t go without the care programmes now, a grand for a phone these days.
I’m still not fully understanding xG. Maybe someone who’s bored could elaborate. In relation to strikers, the higher the xG, the ‘better’ the striker? Is that correct? Seems like an extremely narrow viewpoint. If high xG numbers make the case for a striker being top tier, what about Daniel Sturridge? His xG stats have been 4-5 for several seasons during his career. That’s supposed to be good, right? Taken out of context, someone could argue that he’s an extremely useful striker to have on the books and represents value. Except that he isn’t, and he doesn’t. Sturridge has only scored… Read more »
Thanks for the info Black Hei.
CC lesson learned, I’ll not go without it next time 🙁
It’s a stupid stat Jamie. It’s more about the relation of xG to actual goals scored that leads to people making wishful assumptions. So if Sturridge has xG of 5 per game (because he is a greedy mofo that likes to shoot from everywhere) he should be getting around 5 goals on the average a game which doesn’t really happen. So it means that he is not scoring as much as he should = not performing well. But it’s a shitty stat. It doesn’t register the whole influence of a forward on the team by any means. Say someone like… Read more »
Cheers, raptora.
xG seems as relevant to me as ‘chances created’. Context is key.
http://7amkickoff.com/index.php/2018/10/12/supplement-to-the-arsecast-more-xg-than-you-can-shake-a-stick-at/
A good summary of what xG is. There’s a recent Arsecast podcast which explains it as well.
Enjoy!
Freddie Ljungberg
I like your idea of buying a couple of quality youngsters who are ready to hit the ground running. However, I think they’ll be CL contenders in for him with pockets full of cash. We’ll have to get in the queue.
Not sure if Emery’s style is able to attract top young talents. Hope I’m wrong
Expected goals is more a team analysis than individual player.
It’s supposed to give a guide to how a team is performing.
Pretty straightforward really but as I said ,you only have to look at the teams performance on the pitch to understand that our results are better than our performance and the expected goals stats confirms that.
As someone who has been required to introduce loads of statistical analysis into my work (training) it’s just like in football where you can read as much or as little into a stat as you want and it can tell you everything and nothing base don what you want to hear
This is the nature of data analysis. It’s useful. It’s interesting – kind of. But it’s demonstrably short of comprehensively meaningful
Take our 9 game streak for example. I am over the moon about this and think it’s very impressive. But for Man Utd to go on a time game winning streak right now would be far more impressive considering they’re facing a tonne of horrible games in quick succession
In stats numbers are equal. In the real world, some numbers are more equal than others…
N5
I have a friend in Senegal who can do the job for free.
Just send your phone in good faith and trust in the Senegalese postal service.
El hadji diouf
Dakar
Senegal
SH1 TH04E
“Some like it lolZ”…
Stefano
That’s actually quite a good one!
SHI THO4E….. Nice one.
Best bit about the England game was Eric Dier going right through Ramos. Loved that, absolutely loved that.
China “Take our 9 game streak for example. I am over the moon about this and think it’s very impressive. But for Man Utd to go on a nine game winning streak right now would be far more impressive considering they’re facing a tonne of horrible games in quick succession” Pretty stupid comment considering man Utd have spent in the region of 600 mil or thereabouts in the last few years ,so you would imagine after spending that amount of money they would have a squad big enough to cope with a few extra games and I’m sure their amount… Read more »
China
I look at it this way.
Those individuals who are into data and statistical analysis in regards to Football, or any Sport for that matter, are not instinctive “natural” thinkers.
All rather boring as far as I’m concerned.
Dream I wouldn’t blame them if they return Cech to number 1. In a performance rated 11 he’s the best keeper in the league.
Thorough, yea, thanks for that. I read Tim on Arseblog. And his recent by the numbers on Fulham was dominated by xG I just flipped through it.
Binary thinking from you Graham, quelle surprise!
A win is a win is a win. Last year we were losing to teams like Brighton and Swansea this year we are winning these games… so credit has to be given where it’s due. One of the imponderables that we have lost in the past few years is the fear factor and confidence when facing our rivals. With each win we are rebuilding both. I do hope we continue on this run. Liverpool is not our next test. Leicester is our next test. Every game is as important as another. Too often under the previous regime we went into… Read more »
BobN16
Each to his own.
Dream 10
Yeah it’s not very likely but one can dream, it’s what we need to do to get back to the top, we can’t afford players like that when they’re 3-4 years older.
Our chance compared to those teams are more guaranteed playing time.
Also, if we get an exciting top winger in January we’re well on the way to the top again so would be able to sell our project to them.
Still, slim chance.
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11528005/wenger-ill-return-in-january
Let’s hope that some of his obsessed fans follow him to wherever he goes..
Thats a joke before Auber comes for me, I don’t want no parts of you Iron Auber
‘In football, statistics give people the chance to exist who have little knowledge’
Giles grimandi, the one and only, speaking sense.
Believe it or not, I actually sympathize with Mourinho……………Well sort of. Verbal obscenities in Portuguese, on Sky TV, should not offend anyone, except for those who understand the language. I get fed up when commentators say “we apologize to viewers for the obscene language”. Ffs, I pay an arm and a leg for my TV package, so I want value for money. Streakers, terrorists, unsavoury incidents, bad tackles, I want it all. So, as far as Mourinho is concerned, even though he’s being made the scapegoat once again, I want the full translation in Portuguese. Is that too much to… Read more »
The Sun is reporting that Ramsey will sign for Everton in the summer with a £15 million signing on fee which is circa £75k per week. With a base salary probably in the realm of £150k per week he’ll be on very good money but not the mega money he was looking for with us.
If true it does show that he’s more interested in the money than competing / playing at the highest level.
“Statistics exist to give people, who otherwise wouldn’t exist, the chance to exist”
The one and only Big bird, Sesame Street!
Graham
Whilst I agree in part with your comment it does lead to an issue. If swearing in a foreign language is “OK” what next telling the ref he’s a cunt in French?
Just leads to a can of worms – fact is Mourinho is a cunt and deserves everything he gets. An idea punishment would be making him stay at ManU for life which would also give millions of other fans something to enjoy.
“He made a great tackle [on Ramos]. That set a great standard for England on the night. “In all fairness, you’re not allowed to take the ball and the man anymore, but it was a good challenge to get everyone in the right frame of mind, like a good pass, a good header or a good shot. It put England on the front foot.” Liam Rosenior said: “That tackle from a tactical point of view summed up England’s performance.” You would think Dier made a goal saving tackle the way these 2 are talking about it. You wouldn’t know that… Read more »
mystic
I didn’t see the match but from what you’ve said it’s the typical media attitude. It’s all brilliant until someone injures another player and then you get the same idiots talking about how we need to cut these type of tackles out of the game.
Stefano14 thanks for the recommendation, I’ve post it now. Can’t wait for it to be fixed!
Good looking out buddy
“Believe it or not, I actually sympathize with Mourinho”
You have been Maureenized.
Out of Manure if they lose heavyly against Chelsea – and they will.
Wenger as his successor at Old Toilet ?? (lolZ)
Marc
Go into a school playground and listen to the kids.
Irrespective of political correctness gone mad, it is far worse now than when pc didn’t exist.
The “can of worms” you talk about was opened long ago.
HighburyLegend
No I haven’t.
Quoted Le Imbecile on Metro Arsene Wenger has warned Unai Emery that Mesut Ozil could lack motivation at Arsenal because he has stepped away from Germany’s national team. “
Filho de mae if you knew this why the fuck did you give him a contract for 350mil a week ?
Pierre it would be nice if you knew what you were talking about
You haven’t looked at Utd’s fixture list. There aren’t any teams in world football who would be expected to win *all* of those games regardless of transfer spending
But thanks for your insight
S Asoa
Don’t listen to what Wenger says.
I haven’t for over a decade.
Why would being out of the German national team make him less motivated? Surely that should make him want to shut up his critics?
Crikey he left the club 6 months ago and is still trying to give our guys excuses for failing. Please just walk away arsene, you’ve done enough damage
Have been in Doha(Qatar) this week.
The 2022 WC will be very interesting, should it go ahead.
Also Pierre you proved my point quite eloquently
You equate man utd’s expected squad strength to a single stat – transfer expenditure. Which entirely ignores whether or not their money was actually well spent (amazing surprise – it wasn’t!)
Wenger’s advice to OZils is really dumb
The German -Turk young man cited bigotry in the German national set-up as the reason he’s retiring from the national team.
Wenger’s advice is just comical; go back because your form depends on it. Maybe there’s a magical Aladdin ring hidden in the German team.
Any two-pence psychologist will tell you that he’s more likely to play better when he’s trying top prove a point.
Wenger lost his magical touch or listening ear one decade ago. That’s part of wh he set us back.
dissenter
If you take your cunts hat off it’s quite obvious what the message is.
Germany needs Ozil and for top players to be at their optimum level he needs to be playing at International level in Wengers opinion. It says nothing about Ozils motivation just that the performance levels of top players need that added challenge not 2 weeks off.
You don’t have to agree with what he says but it’s almost like people can’t read.
Classic Wenger here:
https://arseblog.news/2018/10/arsene-wenger-dogs-set-a-great-example/
‘They didn’t give up! But I was very loyal to Arsenal, I rejected all of Europe. Real Madrid, Juventus, Bayern.’
‘I’ve done over 300 transfers, dealing with all the contracts myself.’
‘In the next five years, it could go so far that social media decides which players to change during a match.’
Aubergine It’s hard to for read anything when all you see is Wenger’s colon and his anal sphincter is constricting your goddamn throat. It’s almost like you and Wenger forgot the reason the player cited for leaving the German team. Wenger talked about the “motivation” and tied it to playing at the international level. “‘I did not like that he left the team. A little bit of motivation disappears when you know that you do not have to be ready for the World Cup and European Championship.” Go read the remarks again, you silly Wengerized muppet and take his d*ck… Read more »
Man the arrogance in that interview….
You’d hope getting sacked would’ve taught him a bit of humility but alas he’s more convinced of his genius than ever
“No, I was very fortunate to lead the club and make the decisions myself. I’ve done over 300 transfers, dealing with all the contracts myself. No manager in England today makes a single transfer.”
This puts it to bed then…
“All because my plans at Arsenal were coming to fruition. ” LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
I nearly fainted from laughter. Jesus that man has no fucking idea at all has he – no clue.
Dissenter
See you’ve still got that cunts hat on.
It seems like you project a lot without much prompting.
You seem unable to take an opinion from an old man with a lot more insight than a wannabe hero/justice warrior on le grove.
Your quoting Bild via the metro. Let that sink in.
“‘I’ve done over 300 transfers, dealing with all the contracts myself.’”
Now we know why Sanogo, Almunia, Jenkinson and the rest of the garbage pile were over paid while the club was claiming poverty.
“I rejected all of Europe. Real Madrid, Juventus, Bayern”
—>>> “And at this moment I have plenty of offers, from all over Europe.”
(lolZ)
Think Mister Wenger will be rocking up at PSG in some sort of director position. They made him an offer before the end of last season. Reports of him having dinner with Tuchel a couple of weeks ago. Apparently, he wants to to recommend the signing of Ndombele. Probably means they are planning for life after Rabiot.