Dreamers vs the Nerds. Who will win out?

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Processed with VSCO with p5 preset

In a world where nerds rule and dreamers pay their respects, an unlikely hero has emerged.

His name is Unai Emery.

A man who defied the xG gods.

A man who outscored expectations.

A man who racked up points against all odds.

But could it last?

That’s the damn question.

This is the biggest divide in football society since the age debate of 28 or 29. This is bigger than Denilson. This is bigger than ‘what if Eduardo hadn’t.’

This confusing opener to a blog is driven by the reality that Arsenal are playing above their expected points total at the moment, and it’s leading the worlds premier stats nerds to question the viability of our standing right now.

All of that brings up a number of questions that need to be answered. One of them, and the one I am going to give a bit more information on today, is: does Unai Emery have a track record of his teams beating xG?

This is the operating narrative of managers like Sean Dyche or Lucien Favre – that they have special tactical things that they do that are not captured in the model. I have been asked if Emery also has this profile.

This is raw passion versus data. But, as I’ve lightly been saying since the start of the season, if you’re honest with yourself, we’ve been a touch pony for most of our games, and it’ll bite us in the backside at some point.

Alternatively, you could be of the school of thought where you think that beating out xG early on the season is obviously lucky, but as the matches get eaten up, Emery’s ideas will settle and we’ll start defending better and create far more chances.

For now, that’s how I’m dealing with a porous defence and an attack that’s been incredibly clinical this season.

It’s all part of the master plan!

Realistically, we’ll know by the time the Liverpool game comes around. I’d love the think Pep G showed us the way there, but I’m not sure he did. Wenger always struggled with heavy metal football, so it’ll be interesting to see how Emery is strategising that game. Slowing the game down, forcing Liverpool to play at a slower pace sounds like a good way in. Obviously easier said than done, but for once, we have a coach more than capable of dropping a semi-decent plan.

There were some positive quotes from Reiss Nelson in the press. He scored for England vs Andorra and has his sights set on a possible early return to Arsenal this January. I still think that’s an aggressive timeline. He should take the Sancho route and do a couple of seasons away from Arsenal, build up his fitness, his sharpness and confidence so when he’s thrown in the deep end at Arsenal, he has the tools to deal with the challenge.

It’s actually a pretty fruitful time for Arsenal youth. There are some genuinely exciting talents breaking into consideration at the club, now there’s a manager that can train the intellectual side of their brains. To make it under Arsene, you had to be exceptionally gifted because you weren’t getting a tactical education. I can’t wait to see where Willock, Smith Row, AMN and Neslon take their game. Hopefully, Project British Youth wasn’t a failure, it just took a bit of a delay!

Right, that’s me done for today. My US VISA was renewed in Paris today, so I’m off to scout Berlin. I’ll report back with my findings tomorrow.

BIG LOVE x

P.S. I haven’t spend a huge amount of time in Paris, but damn, what a fucking dreamy place.

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Bankz

Bankz is here for the Tr4phy again

Bankz

2

grooveydaddy

Tr4phy

grooveydaddy

Boll9x

Bankz

4

grooveydaddy

Haha nicked it!

Bad luck, Banks 🙂

Leftsidesanch

I wonder if they’ll end up coming to some agreement with Ramsey

Samesong
TallestTiz

Top 10!

Marko

Honestly fuck Aaron Ramsey. Trying to vilify the club and then in a seemingly spiteful move says he won’t move in January so we’ll get nothing for him. Not a single mention of the fact that he’s asking for extortionate amount in wages and we stuck by him through all those injuries. Honestly the club deserves better

Michael24

Whatever way you look at things, we are in far better place now than at any time over the past eight years(even longer).

Emery has created a feeling of genuine excitement and belief that hasn’t existed for me personally, for a long long time.

Infact, I would go as far as to say that supporting Arsenal has become a joyful experience once again.

It’s amazing what change can do.

Thanks Mr Emery.

Marc

Marko You must have read a different piece to me. The article say’s he won’t “seek” a move in Jan and then you get the usual platitudes about doing his best for the club for the rest of the season. Your reaction makes it sound as if he’s done a hatchet job on the club. If he’s going let’s get some money for him, he’s not worth what he’s asking for and I for one am glad the club seems to have someone running the football side of things who’s looking at using all of our resources in the best… Read more »

Michael24

Bolt’s first not too bad.

Can’t really play a high line with him playing against you.

Reminds me a bit of Sanogo.

Except better!

Howard

Me think we should get rid of Ozil and retain Ramsey instead

Marc

Howard

As soon as you can find another team who will put in a bid for him and match his wages please let us all know. I’m sure the club would reward you as well.

Marko

Your reaction makes it sound as if he’s done a hatchet job on the club. If he’s going let’s get some money for him I read won’t move in January intends to stay thus we won’t get anything for him. I mean he’s done alright from us we had a contract offer on the table that HE didn’t sign and now all of a sudden it’s the club who’s refusing the contract. He’s a mercenary prick. He probably should have just kept his mouth shut but I suppose it’s easier to talk after the first half decent performance of the… Read more »

Marc

Marko

I think you’re reading to much into this. He was asked a question and he’s given an answer that probably meet’s the club’s PR line. He hasn’t slagged off the club and it’s the reporter who suggests he won’t move in Jan rather than a quote from Ramsey.

I think Ramsey or his agent overplayed their hand. Who wouldn’t try and get as much as they can? Especially when you look at how the club was operating, this time it appears the club have drawn a line under the Ozil deal and are playing hard ball.

BacaryisGod

This is a follow-on from the last Pedro posting but just couldn’t resist. Who is this idiot kc? First, it wasn’t a criminal trial so innocent until proven guilty so it doesn’t apply here. The woman who you so elegantly call ‘a bitch’ was a highly respected academic who clearly didn’t want to come forward initially. Based on the reaction from people like you, it’s easy to see why. Let me make one thing clear. Based on his academic and judicial qualifications, Kavanaugh was clearly capable of serving on the Supreme Court, and this is despite being selected mainly because… Read more »

BacaryisGod

As for Ramsey, he was acting in his best interests just like the club is acting in its best interest. Still can’t understand why fans take it all so personally. You would think after Brady, Stapleton, Anderson, Vieira, Fabregas, Nasir, RVP, Clichy, Alexis etc that we would have learned by now. We also forget that our current favourites like Aubameyang, Lacazette and Torreira wouldn’t be here if they had stayed loyal to their teams. Don’t you see the double standard or do you just assume that no player should ever have a reason to leave us for money, titles or… Read more »

Marc

Bacary

Exactly – the only time I get pissed off is if a player plays up or is a prick i.e. Adebayor or RVP.

It’s not leaving that’s an issue it’s how you do it.

Eduardo

#EmeryKnows

Seriously though, xG don’t win matches. Goals win matches.

Players can (and do) pad stats now that they know people pay attention to them. hence some teams have good stats but are sh*t to watch and can’t compete at the top level (Wengerball etc).

Marc

Eduardo

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

jwl

Joke Friday: After picking her son up from school one day, the mother asks him what he did at school. The kid replies, “I had sex with my teacher.” She gets so mad that when they get home, she orders him to go straight to his room. When the father returns home that evening, the mother angrily tells him the news of what their son had done. As the father hears the news, a huge grin spreads across his face. He walks to his son’s room and asks him what happened at school, the son tells him, “I had sex… Read more »

Marc

jwl

terrible joke but I am laughing

jwl

Reiss Nelson should stay in hoffenheim for at least entire season, he is playing regularly in Germany which is much better than being on fringes of Arsenal and only training during week but never playing in actual matches.

jwl

Glad you had a laugh, Marc. I thought it was funny too.

OleGunner

xG is one of the more stupid statistics to be employed lately in football.

HillWood

A man walked into a bar
He said ouch
It was an iron bar

Dennis

What about Jordan Peterson.. ; )
(Speaking of jokes, laughter, there’s some this video.. ? –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUNdRRksZa8&feature=share

Phones a bit like arsenal – made in/ with ‘parts’ from lots of places… !

Joe

We are finally acting like a big club

Told jack to fuck off

Now telling Ramsey he can fuck of too

Not being held for ransom by anyone anymore

If wenger was still here , jack would be on 150k a week And Ramsey of 250

Bravo Arsenal. Bravo

Dissenter

Ramsey needs to quit all the PR nonsense he’s pulling.
He wanted a lot of money and succeeded in fooling the previous regime to offer him a deal that will end up costing the club a limb.
The new people came in and decided this was not in the best interest of Arsenal.

He should just keep his mouth shit and get through the rest of the contract.
There’s no need to start trying to cast himself as the innocent party,

jwl

I agree with OleGunner about xG being shite stats. What is the point of even playing games if the statisticians already know who going to win?

Joe

What stats told us Leicester was going to win the legaue?

Guns of SF

Ramsey can shut his trap.
The club need to sell him in Jan. Bottom line is that he demanded and we did not give in. SO he can shut up with this ” I want to do the best for Arsenal and something special”
That something special is shipping his ass out of here.

I ask this question…
Can the club sell him to whomever against his wishes or can he refuse?

Guns of SF

– Selling him in January….. can he refuse?

jwl

Indeed, Joe. Using math to predict future is stupid.

raptora

You guys heard of this forward Krzysztof Piatek?

Guy has been killing it for Genoa.

He has scored in ALL 8 of his teams games. In all of them. 13 goals in 8 games. That’s fokin impressive. Last night he scored vs Portugal as well. He’s 23 yo and moved to Genoa this summer for 4.50m euro.

We need this kind of deals but instead of spending 4-5m euro, make it 15-30m pounds a player. Talented guys that are more than likely to make the next step and become stars in our team. Just like Torreira.

Dissenter

Guns of SF
” – Selling him in January….. can he refuse?”

YES!
If I were his agent, I would be committing malpractice to let him move out 6 months before a big pay day.
We are still contractually bound to pay him no matter what.
6 months of paid leave isn’t going to kill him. He will still play for Wales to keep himself fresh.
That ship has long sailed- the ball is in his court.

Guns of SF

The club need to tell Ramsey that he will be sold in January and needs the play his best otherwise benched for the season after Jan. or if he refuses this ……

Marko

There’s no need to start trying to cast himself as the innocent party, Exactly. Very unfair to say that it’s us who took the contract off the table when he refused terms the media kind of forget about that. He refused terms in the summer and probably thought he’d bend us over backwards when the transfer window closed and he was still here probably thought we’d have no other choice but to give him what he wants but thankfully we didn’t. It also didn’t help his cause that when push came to shove his form nose dived. First time in… Read more »

KAY Boss

Jwl, my ribs are in stitches, terrible but funny joke.

Can someone help me out. What is xG? I’ve got no idea what it is.

Ramsey just said the truth. Some take things too personal. Everyone when given the opportunity will try and exploit his employer to get more. Rambo’s camp tried to play the game but in the end they lost. Maybe they were demanding exorbitant cash. Glad he’s going though

Marko

Heard about Piatek heard a few of the big boys are keeping an eye on him to see if he continues this good form

englandsbest

All kinds of factors come into play, but for me the major reason for the amazing winning streak is Emery. He has raised the level of performance, made the team more competitive.

At times still disjointed, but improving by the minute.

Guns of SF

Just hope Sven and crew are identifying the one or maybe 2 players in Jan that we need. We need to go after them hard. Young talent that can take us to the next level. CM and Winger

Dissenter

KAYBoss
Who’s taking it “too personal”?
Giving an opinion [same as you’re doing] doesn’t constitute taking anything “personal”, does it?

raptora

Ramsey’s agents are some newbies and he is by far their biggest star.

I’d be absolutely gutted if I had them representing me and now lead me to this situation. No way back either. He done goofed but if I was one of their other clients – the superstars Joel Ward and James Forrest for example – I’d be pushing myself out of there.

Guns of SF

His agents are sore losers with their deleted tweets regarding how they were willing to sign but the club pulled out etc. What a farce.
Glad we grew a pair and said FU to him and his dumb amateur agents

Joe

JWL

Especially in sports. That’s why we all watch them. No one can predict anything

Other than wenge was going to fail again

Dissenter

raptora
I agree with that thinking
I’m not a big fan of spending mega fees on “world class’
The goal is to get them just as they are about to make that leap. It’s a lot cheaper and there’s a resale potential.
We have started that approach with Torriera so long may it continue.

HillWood

It will be strange watching England play in a(supposedly) no fans stadium tonight

Zimmie2652

ESPN just released an article… PSG want Wenger as GM after January window, supposedly. I don’t trust ESPN as far as I could throw those clowns though. Just the hottest gossip queens here stateside. Anyone hearing that yet on the other side of the pond? Guess we’ll know where Jackyboy will be next year!

Marc

Joe

Stats are great if used the right way, problem is they’re too easy to twist. As a ridiculous example we are 8 points better off this season in the 8 comparable fixtures we’ve had in the league. You can then argue that we’ll pick up 38 more points this season – that’d give us 101 points and guarantee winning the league.

Does anyone think that’s going to happen = course not. 4th is a definite opportunity and if one of Chelsea or Liverpool drop off maybe even 3rd.

jwl

“Can someone help me out. What is xG?”

KAYBoss –

To work out a team’s “expected goals” (xG) for a match, every shot must be analysed and given an “Expected goal value” (EGV).

EGV is the probability that any given shot will end up as a goal.

As Patrick Lucey, director of data science at STATS, explains, EGV is based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from, the proximity of defenders, the nature of the attack (i.e a direct free-kick or a penalty).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/07/25/expected-goals-xg-does-show-man-city-should-win-premier-league/

jwl

Joe – when I first learned about xG stat a few years ago, I thought it sounded like astrology. Peer into crystal ball and predict what going to happen in future.

Redtruth

It’s well known Spain and Barcelona use performance enhancing drugs.
Indeed Guardiola himself as a player was banned for taking steriods.

Joe

Marc

I have a good feeling for 4th. Also don’t think we will be hilariously behind the leaders either.

The best part of all this is that we are even talking like this. The last decade or more we could not have had hope or even serious talk that we were going to be close or even hope or being close

It feels great to be an arsenal fan again

Alex Cutter

“A man walked into a bar
He said ouch
It was an iron bar”

This is how it’s told:

Q: What did the man say when he walked into a bar?

A: Ouch!

Alex Cutter

“After picking her son up from school one day, the mother asks him what he did at school. The kid replies, “I had sex with my teacher.” ”

You literally copy/pasted this from one of my posts last year.

Well done!

un na naai

Cunter

Who says I’m white dummy?? Also, you don’t have to be a pussy boy lefty wimp to have come through depression you mug.

Alex Cutter

Forget your meds today?

un na naai

Raptora

All he’s has to do is can them and agree a decent salary. It’s not hard.

HillWood

Come on England

un na naai

Meds???

Victorious

A bit ironic some select few are yearning for 4th like their lives depends on it when that has been a piece of cake for us in years nonstop, i mean it becomes even more hilarious when its same folk who berated the club for being a top 4 club and wishing we fall down to enforce change,how’s that work out eh?,looks like its right back to 4th as the pinnacle.

Victorious

By the way where’s the Hackney dude? Been a while

tee

I read somewhere that Ramsey’s agent likes a negative tweet against Emery.

red,

you some times do talk trash.

Spain is playing the finest of football these days

Marko

Vic when Wenger left us with 5th and 6th place finishes yeah it’d be a good thing if his replacement finished 4th.

Marc

Victorious

I never wanted us to drop out of the CL I just wanted Wenger to go, those wanting Arsenal to get top 4 now is about progression. CL football attracts better players and gives you more money to pay. It also helps get better commercial deals again helping to finance better players.

If you can’t see that Arsenal were being mismanaged you need to get your head out of your arse.

HillWood

Hope Prem clubs are watching this England match and realise how important the fans are and stop taking them for granted as mug punters

Marc

“host a blog that allowed alt-right scumbags to threaten other members with murder.”

I always miss the meltdowns.

Marc

HillWood

I forgot England were playing, just switched over for a minute and it’s shocking. Even the commentators sound uncomfortable with the lack of noise.

Victorious

Marko
But we did finish in top 4 for 20years and since our last title win, fans were bored of it and questioned the ambition of the manager instead of the absentee owner, I mean Folk like you wanted a title challenge and thought a managerial change was all was needed, not to be getting a rude awakening despite a new gaffer in charge see we’re no where near a title challenge more than we have been in the some years now.

Joe

Victorious

No one is “yearning” for your and your messiahs beloved 4th place trophy. It’s a stepping stone for greater things for arsenal and Emery. Unlike being the laughing stock of Europe in it under wenege, I’m
Sure most of have confidence in Emery having arsenal doing very good in it

Emery won’t be using it as a financial reason only to keep his job , he will use it as a footballing ambition play to get better players and COMPETE in it.

Victorious

*more than we have been for some years

Joe

We were bored of it because we showed no progression it.

Routinely got embarrassed in it.

Were a laughing stock

Now if in 3 years time we are showing no progress and still only making top 4 and no genuine league challenge and are still a joke in the CL I will have no problem saying good bye to Emery

You really can’t be this daft Victorous? I hope your just trying to wind people up with these posts

Michael24

victorious

2016-17 one point behind Liverpool in 5th place.
2017-18 twelve points behind Liverpool in 6th and seven points behind Chelski.

Finishing top 4 would be a massive step forward considering the state Wenger left the club in.

Remember 2006- 2018 was a slow but predictable regression.

This would be called progress.

Joe

we’re no where near a title challenge more than we have been in the some years now.

We are 2 points off the top heading into November

And also how fast do you expect Emery to fix the specialist in failures mistakes of the last dozen years. Isn’t going to happen overnight but 9 in a row says he’s doing pretty good

Marc

“questioned the ambition of the manager instead of the absentee owner”

As of 30th April this year we had the 3rd highest net spend since June 2014. What do you expect from an owner? Be specific no clichés – let’s see if you can come with any coherent comment.

Victorious

I never wanted us to drop out of the CL I just wanted Wenger to go,”

What any true supporter of the club would want but you know majority on here didn’t share this sentiment and I’m only but highlighting the hypocrisy and double standards of their very own logic

Freddie Ljungberg

It’s also harder than ever getting into the top 4 since Liverpool and Spurs have landed decent managers, and have been run much better than us for years now.

No one in their right mind thought all we had to do was change managers to immediately challenge again, not with the unbalanced squad that Wenger left.

It will take a couple of windows to rectify that, and CL football will help attract the players we need, at least there’s hope now that actual quality players will be brought in with competent people in charge and no dithering around.

Victorious

Joe/Marc/Micheal
You’re shockingly missing the point

When soonest do you foresee a ‘credible’ title challenge

IF to get back to 4th place was the thinking behind appointing a new gaffer then the futility in such an idea cannot be overemphasised.

Marc

Joe

On top of what you say before we play Liverpool Chelsea host ManU and City are away at the Spud’s.

Emery will be under a huge amount of scrutiny for the Liverpool match but I just hope everyone doesn’t go overboard on the result – either way.

Freddie Ljungberg

I just hope we go all in trying to sell our “project” to Rabiot in January. Don’t think we have a chance in the summer.

Him and Torreira at the base of midfield and we don’t have to touch our CM for 7-8 years. Get a winger like Pepe as well and it’s just the defence that needs attention next summer. A commanding CB and a top prospect LB and we could really be up there next season.

Marc

“When soonest do you foresee a ‘credible’ title challenge ”

I don’t know but the fact that we’re not out of it by mid October is a start. Personally I think this season is about stabilizing the club, hopefully we’ll see the benefits next season.

What was your alternative? Just carry on as things were? If that’s the case you’re missing the point that Wenger was getting worse and further adrift. Another summer under Wenger and we wouldn’t be making European football full stop.

un na naai

Cunter

Happy as Larry you little anus licker.

Michael24

victorious

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, how blind can one be?

Your talking of a title challenge when we haven’t mounted a serious one for years.

The idea behind appointing a new manager was to bring some credibility back to the club along with pride and passion to compete once again.

You’ve been living in a cardboard box for far too long my friend.

Marc

Victorious

Well the link to that article show’s your complete lack of comprehension of what Kroenke was saying.

Try to get past the headline that the paper puts up to gain clicks.

Joe

Credible?

Hopefully next season

Definitely by 3 rd season

Marc

Also losing to Liverpool (which i don’t think we will) doesn’t mean anything into how Emery is doing

Liverpool have 2 points v city and Chelsea

We have 0. We keep winning a bunch in a row after dropping points, those dropped points will be made up elsewhere

Joe

Haven’t been credible contenders for over a decade and Vicky wants Emery to contend by October in his first season

And he is calling out hypocrisy and double standards. haha

Don’t think he knows what those words even mean

Haha the irony

HillWood

Rashford looking like a Sunday League striker

Marc

Joe

It’ll be interesting to see how Liverpool do over the season. Gary Neville was making a lot of comments about the way they play during the City game. Essence was drop off 1 or 2 % when you have their style of play and it has a big effect on results.

Klopp needs to prioritise the PL if they have any chance of winning it. If they try to fight on 2 or 3 fronts they could fuck up their best chance of winning the league in a long time.

Victorious

“If you want to win championships then you would never get involved. I think the best owners in sports are the guys that sort of watch both sides a bit. If you don’t have a good business then you can’t really afford to go out and get the best players unless you just want to rely on other sources of income. Again Marc, from the horse’s mouth How does this statement gives the impression of someone ambitious? Are you saying Kroenke is ambitious ? Does that sound like a man who wants the club to exhaust all possible means to… Read more »

Joe

Vicky

Go watch the LA Rams

Think what they are doing being the best team in the NFL speaks louder than some stupid article you want to dig up

Victorious

Haven’t been credible contenders for over a decade and Vicky wants Emery to contend by October in his first season”

Ezxeot I haven’t in anywhere today insinuated this

Hoe about for once you hold on to what gas been said and not making shit up

Makes you come across unstable

Really a wierd one this joey character

Joe

I really enjoy Arsène – very smart, very intelligent,” says Kroenke. “He has an absolute view on how he runs that team and the club. He has earned that right. Don’t look for me to interfere with that. I have learnt over the years that sometimes owners try do that and it is not so good. “We’ve always said that there are resources available. There are guys who say that we should push Arsène harder to spend. That’s fair enough – there are always lots of opinions but Arsène is an independent thinker and planner. He works very hard at… Read more »

Joe

we’re no where near a title challenge more than we have been in the some years now.

You said that. In oct

Plain as day for every one to see, you expect Emery to be challenging for the title in October. Which by the way he is.

Marc

Victorious It was a poor choice of words but we clearly take widely different meanings from the comment. “I think the best owners in sports are the guys that sort of watch both sides a bit” – You’ve got to be sensible, allowing a club to spend beyond it’s means will result in the club going tits up – ask Leeds fans. “If you don’t have a good business then you can’t really afford to go out and get the best players unless you just want to rely on other sources of income.” – I’m not going to personally fund… Read more »

Joe

Looks like you’re the unstable weird hypocrite double standard wanker who makes shit up on here doesn’t it?