Celebrate our league victory ten years ago! Woo Hoo!

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Not a lot of news to chat through today really. There’s a story about us approaching Louis Van Gaal. Gotta say, the chances of Louis Van Gaal are slim to none. You don’t lose one megalomaniac to replace him with an egotistical lunatic responsible for spawning nasty paranoid managers like AVB and Mourinho.

He’s absolutely not what a club like Arsenal need. If Arsene goes, which I’m convinced he won’t, regardless of the finish to the season, we’ll sign a manager Ivan can make King. Stan Kroenke won’t want a big spending nut case at the helm. They’ll be looking at the Liverpool project. Sensible spending, exciting vision, tactical astuteness with an excellent approach to staffing… and saying, I’ll have some of that. Liverpool made Rodgers King. He’ll be associated with that club until they sack him. Much in the same way Wenger has been forever asscoiated with us. We gave him the chance to be King.

Well, that’s what I’d assume they’ll do.

… no. It’s what I demand they do.

We don’t need a mega name. United do to appease the markets. Spurs think they do, because let’s be honest, Daniel Levy doesn’t have a clue when it comes to running a successful football club (on the playing side at least). City do, but I wouldn’t bet on that approach for too much longer, I heard a disgusting rumour that they’re training Patrick Vieira to become the Pelligrini successor in 2 years time.

Say. It. Aint. So.

Anyway, big name managers are a dying breed these days. Smart managers are the future. You don’t need a big playing career to be a great manager these days.

In other news, some people are celebrating 10 years since we last won the league.

Wow. That’s like celebrating the last time you got laid. Now, I appreciate that plenty of people who regularly chide me on Twitter do that, but come on. We’re Arsenal. Let’s not celebrate our ten years failure. Let’s put it to one side and focus on the future and look forward to one day, becoming a side that celebrates league victories more regularly than we have been of late. A whole decade without a league win? What a sorry sight…

Still, I’d be very surprised if the next ten years don’t provide us with a league win. All the cogs are in place. Wenger did an amazing job keeping us secure when he transferred us from the old stadium into the new. As I’ve said many times before, arguably, keeping us afloat in the midst of crazy Arab and Russian money was his finest achievement. If I was to drill home a negative from all of that, I’d say that arguably, it didn’t need to be that way. Stan Kroenke could have stuck his hand into his very deep pocket and supported us through that stage. He could’ve have gone the extra mile and invested in a hugely talented first team. We could have been celebrating more league wins.

Stan put it all on Wenger (paid him handsomely) and in the process grew a monster. Wenger controlled everything, he delivered for a while, but then things started to tale off. Money came available through property and player sales, Wenger didn’t spend it. He maintained that top 4 mediocrity though and we had the most sound finances in the league. Now we’re 5 years into having surplus cash and it’s actually a hindrance. I’ll reference an interesting conversation that took place in the comments.

Surfer says:

£70m? And the rest….

What is a ‘warchest’ anyway (a tabloidism is ever there was)? Lets define it as the amount of transfers, wages and salary commitments it could utilise NET (ie on incoming players) without impacting the long-term stability of the club. Or, in Financial terms, AFC’s potential investment capital (ie both cash and available credit).

A very loose calculation..

Estimated Flow of Funds to May 14
——————————————–
Cash in hand (May 13) £153m
Change in 6 month operating cash flow (Nov 13) £20m
Debtor / Creditor on Player Transfers Movements (£7m)
Cash from Property Disposals £10m
Contract Extension Payments (£10m)
Operating Cash Flow Increase £10m

Estimated Cash Balance May 2014
£176m

Allowing for the £24m bank mandate on the stadium and a prudent £25m operating reserve would leave us around £125m of cash doing nothing. So this means a warchest of £125m, right? Wrong..

The key is available credit. Imagine someone was going to give you £100m in exactly 1 years time. Does this mean you would live your normal life for a whole year and then go playboy after waiting for that time? Of course not; you could borrow for a year a pay it back. That’s essentially how transfers work; the available credit comes from the selling clubs.

On the Ozil deal we paid approx 50% up front, the remainder on tick. This transfer has left our debtors (£16m) / creditors (£38m) unbalanced by round 20m (which accounts for the £7m on player transfer movements). If we assume a similar payment profile for all transfers, it means our potential warchest is effectively double.. so around £250m.

£250m would also have to cover at least their first-year salaries; Id argue that the increased broadcasting income as well as the recently struck commercial deals would provide medium term headroom (in cash terms) to bear some of the salary payments in later years, as well as the reasonable assumption that more players would mean existing players leaving which would offset future salary costs).

The fact is we could pay for the entire Anfield redevelopment out of existing cash balances. Its a ridiculous sum of cash for any business of that size to be holding. Certainly if you look at the cash balances at the rest of the EPL (total COMBINED £180m) it bears that out. In any other industry, it would either be returned to the shareholders via dividend (still a possibility) or stick big cross-hairs on you for other companies that invest funds for a return (look at Chelski.. they operate a buy-to-lease transfer policy with 30+ players on loan and take the asset appreciation if the fit doesn’t work: De Bruyne, Mata, etc).

The whole Financial policy of AFC is flawed- we just stash the cash under the mattress and watch its value depreciate (in real terms). £70m is a huge under-estimate of our potential investment capital

Keyser Says:

SurferX – While your post seems to have more thought in it than your average, it does lead to other questions, aswell as that you seem to be making the point that we could spend everything we have, as if this is something we should consider.

Swiss Ramble posted this for the start of the year :

http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/arsenal-money-dont-matter-2-night.html

“So, what is the magic figure Arsenal have as a transfer fund? Given all of the variables described above, it’s safest to quote David Bowie, “It ain’t easy”, when trying to pin this down, but the oft-quoted £70 million is a reasonable estimate. If funds from property development and future commercial deals are also made available, then it could be as high as £100 million.”

This isn’t an attack, it’s just more convenient to ask you this and hopefully give everyone something to talk about.

– How has he come to this number ? Is it fair ?

– The other thing was even with these cash reserves, how is it that the players we sold was the difference between us posting a loss for the past two years.

I can guess at either but then people get upset when I question them.

Surfer Says:

“SurferX – I did say it wasn’t an attack”

Dont worry mate- coming from you I wouldn’t of taken it as such anyway: we’ve both been on here for far too long for that..

“Still wondering how our cash reserves impacts against us only turning a profit through player sales ?”

Well, firstly profit on player sales is only 1 (non-operating activity) item: around £50m of ‘profit’ has also come in from property over the past 5 years. What is crucial is that neither of these are directly ‘cash’ items. So, take 2 players;

(1) Bought for 10m, sold for 5m (5m loss?)
(2) Bought for 10m, sold for 20m (10m profit?)

So I assume you are thinking that we made a 5m loss on (1) and 10m profit on (2)? Wrong- it depends on the length of contract because of amortisation. This is where a player is written down over the course of his contract. So if both players were signed over 4 year contracts, their ‘cost’ is 10.4 = £2.5m pa. If they both sold after 3 years ( 1 year left), the profit would be;

5 – (10/4) = 2.5m profit
20-(10/4)=17.5m profit

So profit on player sales isn’t so much how people read it (ie how well we did on a transfer). Its better to think of it as a by-product of when we sell them v how much they have left of their amortisation. Especially in our case when we have let a succession of people go in the final year (when most of their amortisation has been written down, and we still get a big transfer fee= big Profit on disposal).

And back to cash- these aren’t cash transactions regardless. If we bought both players up front, then sold them with a 50% payments profile, then we would only see 12.5m of additional cash (rather than £25m). And, of course the inverse applies if you are a ‘buying’ club rather than a ‘selling’ (as we should be). This is why clubs potential investment levels (in EPL) are so much higher than the cash they have- because they are net-spenders rather than sellers.

“All it comes across as is a massive balancing act, just tired of people throwing figures out there or stating our entire cash reserve as something that we should consider spending,”

It is a balancing act- but the point is the cash we have is have can be doubled (in terms of transfer fee surplus) by the short-term gearing that happens in major transfers. Its a balancing act that we are failing to balance at present. We should be investing as much as we possible can without endangering the club: or have a viable reason why not.

Lets put it another way, why should we be keeping any cash reserve at all beyond what is reasonable and prudent? So if my £175m cash estimate is correct- and allowing for cycle fluctuations and banking mandate leaves us with £125m excess cash (ie working capital that we never touch)- what else should we do with it?

  • The only arguments that can be made for not spending are;
  • Transfer Fees will fall (they will become deflationary rather than inflationary)
  • The supply of players will increase faster than the demand for players (same as point 1 really)
  • The shareholders have identified a better ROI than can be made on player acquisitions (like building a new stadium, for example)
  • The Board wants to return the excess cash to the shareholders,

None of those scenarios (imho) are likely or desirable; therefore we should be investing the cash in the best players we can.

Thanks for that guys. So there you have it, Wenger kind of fell off the boat when it came to spending. There’s not reason for him not to splash cash now. It’s actually costing us as a club every time he decides not to.

… but like I said yesterday, the real worrying trend with Wenger was the downward spiral everywhere else. When he did spend he’d spend badly, opting for cheaper alternatives that didn’t work. He was slowly being found out tactically. His approach to fitness and player health didn’t change over the ten years, despite the league speeding up and getting more powerful. He started to fade as an elite manager.

So here we are, ten years later, no closer to a league title.

The good news for Arsenal fans all over the planet is that this won’t last longer than two years. If we’re lucky, Ivan might push Wenger to change some areas of the playing staff. Jonker, the new academy coach, was apparently not a Wenger signing. Hopefully we make more moves like that. I can’t remember the exact jist of the story, but I think Liam Brady failed to attain Elite Level status for our academy. So he went (was pushed?). I suspect there are a few areas in Arsene’s team that aren’t elite level. Will they get the same treatment over the next few years?

I hope so.

Anyway, that was supposed to be a short post. I’m off for a meeting. Have a mighty fine day!

P.S. Those comments are an example of why the comments section of Le Grove is one of the best in the business. Excellent analysis.

P.P.S. If you sit next to someone with a computer screen, everytime they leave the table, move their screen by 4 inches. Do it until they ask. Deny it. Keep doing it. You’d be surprised how much stress this can cause.

If you’re a trader, may I suggest taking and important tool from one persons bag and putting it in anothers. Do it all day. Next week, reverse the action so it looks like a revenge attack. Divide and conquer. Within weeks, you’ll be running the damn show.

634 Responses to “Celebrate our league victory ten years ago! Woo Hoo!”

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  1. Samir masri

    Wenger is officially bigger than the club. Watching his interviews gave me bad vibes. Just another worrying season ahead. Why he is still here? I don’t even know.

  2. Emiratesstroller

    I see that Wenger is now suggesting that he will stay a further two years at the
    club. I don’t think that it is a secret that I would prefer that he left after 9 barren years.

    However, what is beginning to materialise is that Manchester United are going to struggle to recruit a ‘top’ Manager to replace Moyse. Frankly there are very few genuinely successful candidates in the market place who want the
    job. Messrs Ancelotti, Guardiola,Klopp and Mourinho have ruled themselves
    out.

    If Wenger remains then it is essential that he focusses now on concentrating at end of season on those transfers, which are ‘essential’ to improving team and moving us up the EPL Table.Let us hope that the club is properly prepared
    this time and does not dither and leave matters until last moment.

    Apart from a goalscorer we need to improve the physicality and defensive
    qualities of team particularly in midfield. Our defeats this season are attributable to a large extent to fragility in that department.

    The latest report on Diaby suggests that he is injured once again. The club needs to cut its losses whatever its sentimentality towards player and release
    him. His retention at the club is a ‘distraction’. The issue is no longer just about wages, but about keeping a place for him in squad and of course the huge medical bills which must be accumulating.

  3. tunnygriffboy

    I genuinely believe we will spend this summer. I feel a little more optimistic than the majority on here. Sorry to buck the trend guys, but I can see some quality coming in up top and in midfield.

  4. tunnygriffboy

    1886

    How can we speculate on names now ? We don’t know who will be available Judging by what Wenger has intimated and the press reported those are the areas that we are looking at. Striker is a no brainer, pace has been mentioned and we bid for Bender last season

  5. andy1886

    Well, with the WC coming up fast we’d better have names and start making enquiries damn quick. In any other business leaving such vital work until the last minute would be unacceptable. Bender? (I assume you mean Lars) well, if Wenger has his valuation and we’ve already bid what makes you think we would make a higher offer? We had over a hundred million in the bank last year and obviously weren’t prepared to bid high enough so what’s changed? A striker? Wenger couldn’t find a half decent one in the past two years, again what has changed this time?

    Sorry, I need evidence to believe that Wenger will actually change, people have been saying that for years and have been wrong every time, Until I see otherwise I’ll believe that this summer will be just like all the rest, protracted sagas where we lose out on our targets because we’re too tight, cheap unknown prospects, and free transfers. Maybe we’ll get lucky if another Ozil falls into our lap at the last minute, but I doubt it.

  6. Thank you and goodnight

    As most of us keep saying it doesn’t matter how much he spends. The club is rotten from the board down. Coaching needs to change, fitness, recovery periods, the style of our football everything. The man’s tactically inept, outdated everything.

  7. tunnygriffboy

    1886

    Can’t give you evidence, just hope you’ll be pleasantly suprised when August comes. I will feel really let down if it doesn’t happen. Do you know that they haven’t got a list of names and that they’re not negotiating now? Do I know that they are ? The answer is no, it’s all speculation and opinion. I accept that we needed a striker last summer and that January was awful. I was livid we didn’t replace Walcotts pace.

    Why do I think it will be different this summer.? Wenger will want to go out with a bang. His last contract, a chance to show that he can still cut it. He’ll know that we need more quality in certain positions. We have loads of money in the bank. Finally despite many views to the contrary Wenger and Gazidis are not stupid. They will know that fan disenchantment is at an all time high at any time in Wenger’s tenure andcome the first game a la Villa game this season then supporter anger will be vitriolic.

  8. andy1886

    Yep, someone needs to follow Wenger around blasting out ‘Loser’ by Beck until he jacks it in.

    “I’m a loser baby so why don’t you kill me?”

    Harsh but fair….

  9. tunnygriffboy

    TYAG

    I don’t necessarily agree with all you say. If it was as rotten as you make out we would be floundering like Man u. Certain things have to change especially on the injury front ( I have my own views this season ), rotation and recovery. More quality would help that. What has frustrated me this season is that we go to Dortmund and Bayern and set up to contain and counter and do it well yet we don’t do it against Lpool and Chelsea. We are capable of doing that and I don’t understand it

    Quality and more depth in certain position with our current squad fit we will be more competitive. I knew our squad wouldn’t have been strong enough to sustain a league challenge this season and like many I recognised it at the beginning of the season. Still think we’ve got the basis of a good squad.

  10. Romford Pele

    Tunny, I admire your optimism mate. You remind me of my best mate who still think Wenger will change. My main issue isn’t really transfers. Even with the best players I can’t see us winning. Too many flaws in Wenger’s make-up for me. I guess the only thing is that all the top managers seem to be ruling themselves out of leaving if United is anything to go by.

  11. Jeff

    Tunny,

    Man U floundered for ONE season and they have already acted within months to change their fortunes. We have been floundering for 10 years and nobody wants to do anything about it; how you can reconcile or rationalise what you just said borders on deep delusion and religion. We might as well all believe in the second coming, fairies at the bottom of the garden and Davy Jones’ locker at the bottom of the sea.

  12. Evan

    “We would be floundering like Man Utd”. 

    We have completely crashed/bottled it in the money round again, Man Utd is more of a media impact as their fans are not accustomed to settling for 4th and heaping praise on an ignorant man.

  13. Thank you and goodnight

    @Tunny
    We have a good core of players mate, who with a better coach can reach the next level. I love ramsay, ox, Gnabry, Ozil still have a soft spot for JW though he’s been poor for couple seasons now. Kos and Mert have surpassed my expectations, but still think we need strengthening in that area still. I love Arsenal mate but I’m not one ( not a dig at you, more likes of Kjafc and revvin) to sit with my head buried up wenger’s arse and claim everything is rosy. We have a beautiful stadium, modern training facilities, thanks to Arsène. But that’s where my thanks ends. He is dragging the club down, outdated out model and constantly being out thought on the football pitch by lesser teams this season. Wenger needs to be giving Ramsey a blow job every day because I tell you if it wasn’t for him early part of season, we’d be 7th or 8th easily.

    Also do people not think it’s strange that Pep hasn’t said anything on Tito ‘ s passing?

  14. tunnygriffboy

    Jeff

    Please don’t patronise me or call me delusional. Because I don’t share your hatred of Wenger and views of where the club are at doesn’t mean you haveto speak to me like I’m an idiot.

  15. Jeff

    As for looking at anything that is interesting and positive; – that is a nonsensical argument because tries to bring in the emotive angle – “it’s not as bad as all that.”

    If your house is burning down, do you look and smile that at least the garage is still OK or do you despair you have no home to live in. This is so pitiful and juvenile.

  16. tunnygriffboy

    TYAG

    Thank you for your reply. I do understand the frustrations you feel, believe me I get angry about stuff as well but as you said in some ways the club has a lot of quality and is ready to make the next step. You believe Wenger should go. I’m ok
    with him going on for two years, I said so after the summer and I’ll stick by it.

    As for Wenger giving Ramsey a bj it can be done at the same time Rodgers bends over and takes one from Suarez.

  17. tunnygriffboy

    Jeff

    It’s not juvenile. It was just a simple question. Could we be doing a lot of things better? Of course we could. But amongst the bad stuff there are positives. Until we lose to Newcastle loooooool

  18. Jeff

    Tunny,

    Wenger threw this season down the toilet by not acting in January. On what tangible evidence do you base your hope that he’s going to do a 180 in the summer?

  19. tunnygriffboy

    Jeff

    More money in the bank

    Final contract, done the hard work moving to the Emirates, new sponsorship deals ( of course he should have replaced Walcotts pace upfront at Christmas ) and it’s his last hurrah !

    He and Gazidis know that the anger shown after the Villa game this season will be nothing compared to what will happen if they don’t buy this summer

    Knowledge that they have to strengthen and the fact we made bids upfront and in midfield last season.

  20. Jeff

    Tunny,

    I promise, this time next year you will have lost all hope in Wenger. If it’s another year of the same you want to prove it, you shall have it.

  21. Oli

    This too from the 2001 BBC website interview with Gazidis:

    “If we went out and spent all our money we would make bad decisions, so we’ve been restrained.”

    WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU MAKE BAD DECISIONS? That’s your job.

    Wenger Out!

  22. Moray

    Tunny, I’m not sure Wenger gives a flying one what the supporters think, tbh. Quite the opposite. This summer will rise or fall depending on what influence Gazidis currently has over Wenger.